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Sunday, July 7, 2024

How the world will end

A gamma ray, also known as gamma radiation (symbol γ), is a penetrating form of electromagnetic radiation arising from the radioactive decay of atomic nuclei. It consists of the shortest wavelength electromagnetic waves, typically shorter than those of X-rays. With frequencies above 30 exahertz (3×1019 Hz) and wavelengths less than 10 picometers (1×10−11 m), gamma ray photons have the highest photon energy of any form of electromagnetic radiation. Paul Villard, a French chemist and physicist, discovered gamma radiation in 1900 while studying radiation emitted by radium. In 1903, Ernest Rutherford named this radiation gamma rays based on their relatively strong penetration of matter; in 1900, he had already named two less penetrating types of decay radiation (discovered by Henri Becquerel) alpha rays and beta rays in ascending order of penetrating power. Gamma rays from radioactive decay are in the energy range from a few kiloelectronvolts (keV) to approximately 8 megaelectronvolts (MeV), corresponding to the typical energy levels in nuclei with reasonably long lifetimes. The energy spectrum of gamma rays can be used to identify the decaying radionuclides using gamma spectroscopy. Very-high-energy gamma rays in the 100–1000 teraelectronvolt (TeV) range have been observed from astronomical sources such as the Cygnus X-3 microquasar. Natural sources of gamma rays originating on Earth are mostly a result of radioactive decay and secondary radiation from atmospheric interactions with cosmic ray particles. However, there are other rare natural sources, such as terrestrial gamma-ray flashes, which produce gamma rays from electron action upon the nucleus. Notable artificial sources of gamma rays include fission, such as that which occurs in nuclear reactors, and high energy physics experiments, such as neutral pion decay and nuclear fusion. Gamma rays and X-rays are both electromagnetic radiation, and since they overlap in the electromagnetic spectrum, the terminology varies between scientific disciplines. In some fields of physics, they are distinguished by their origin: gamma rays are created by nuclear decay while X-rays originate outside the nucleus. In astrophysics, gamma rays are conventionally defined as having photon energies above 100 keV and are the subject of gamma-ray astronomy, while radiation below 100 keV is classified as X-rays and is the subject of X-ray astronomy. Gamma rays are ionizing radiation and are thus hazardous to life. They can cause DNA mutations, cancer and tumors, and at high doses burns and radiation sickness. Due to their high penetration power, they can damage bone marrow and internal organs. Unlike alpha and beta rays, they easily pass through the body and thus pose a formidable radiation protection challenge, requiring shielding made from dense materials such as lead or concrete. On Earth, the magnetosphere protects life from most types of lethal cosmic radiation other than gamma rays.
An impact event is a collision between astronomical objects causing measurable effects. Impact events have been found to regularly occur in planetary systems, though the most frequent involve asteroids, comets or meteoroids and have minimal effect. When large objects impact terrestrial planets such as the Earth, there can be significant physical and biospheric consequences, as the impacting body is usually traveling at several kilometres a second (a minimum of 11.2 km/s (7.0 mi/s) for an Earth impacting body), though atmospheres mitigate many surface impacts through atmospheric entry. Impact craters and structures are dominant landforms on many of the Solar System's solid objects and present the strongest empirical evidence for their frequency and scale. Impact events appear to have played a significant role in the evolution of the Solar System since its formation. Major impact events have significantly shaped Earth's history, and have been implicated in the formation of the Earth–Moon system. Impact events also appear to have played a significant role in the evolutionary history of life. Impacts may have helped deliver the building blocks for life (the panspermia theory relies on this premise). Impacts have been suggested as the origin of water on Earth. They have also been implicated in several mass extinctions. The prehistoric Chicxulub impact, 66 million years ago, is believed to not only be the cause of the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event but acceleration of the evolution of mammals, leading to their dominance and, in turn, setting in place conditions for the eventual rise of humans. Throughout recorded history, hundreds of Earth impacts (and exploding bolides) have been reported, with some occurrences causing deaths, injuries, property damage, or other significant localised consequences.[5] One of the best-known recorded events in modern times was the Tunguska event, which occurred in Siberia, Russia, in 1908. The 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor event is the only known such incident in modern times to result in numerous injuries. Its meteor is the largest recorded object to have encountered the Earth since the Tunguska event. The Comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 impact provided the first direct observation of an extraterrestrial collision of Solar System objects, when the comet broke apart and collided with Jupiter in July 1994. An extrasolar impact was observed in 2013, when a massive terrestrial planet impact was detected around the star ID8 in the star cluster NGC 2547 by NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope and confirmed by ground observations. Impact events have been a plot and background element in science fiction. In April 2018, the B612 Foundation reported: "It's 100 percent certain we'll be hit [by a devastating asteroid], but we're not 100 percent certain when." Also in 2018, physicist Stephen Hawking considered in his final book Brief Answers to the Big Questions that an asteroid collision was the biggest threat to the planet. In June 2018, the US National Science and Technology Council warned that America is unprepared for an asteroid impact event, and has developed and released the "National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy Action Plan" to better prepare. According to expert testimony in the United States Congress in 2013, NASA would require at least five years of preparation before a mission to intercept an asteroid could be launched. On 26 September 2022, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test demonstrated the deflection of an asteroid. It was the first such experiment to be carried out by humankind and was considered to be highly successful. The orbital period of the target body was changed by 32 minutes. The criterion for success was a change of more than 73 seconds.
Volcanism, vulcanism, volcanicity, or volcanic activity is the phenomenon where solids, liquids, gases, and their mixtures erupt to the surface of a solid-surface astronomical body such as a planet or a moon. It is caused by the presence of a heat source, usually internally generated, inside the body; the heat is generated by various processes, such as radioactive decay or tidal heating. This heat partially melts solid material in the body or turns material into gas. The mobilized material rises through the body's interior and may break through the solid surface. For volcanism to occur, the temperature of the mantle must have risen to about half its melting point. At this point, the mantle’s viscosity will have dropped to about 1021 Pascal-seconds. When large scale melting occurs, the viscosity rapidly falls to 103 Pascal-seconds or even less, increasing the heat transport rate a million-fold. The occurrence of volcanism is partially due to the fact that melted material tends to be more mobile and less dense than the materials from which they were produced, which can cause it to rise to the surface. On Earth, volcanoes are most often found where tectonic plates are diverging or converging, and because most of Earth's plate boundaries are underwater, most volcanoes are found underwater. For example, a mid-ocean ridge, such as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, has volcanoes caused by divergent tectonic plates whereas the Pacific Ring of Fire has volcanoes caused by convergent tectonic plates. Volcanoes can also form where there is stretching and thinning of the crust's plates, such as in the East African Rift and the Wells Gray-Clearwater volcanic field and Rio Grande rift in North America. Volcanism away from plate boundaries has been postulated to arise from upwelling diapirs from the core–mantle boundary, 3,000 kilometers (1,900 mi) deep within Earth. This results in hotspot volcanism, of which the Hawaiian hotspot is an example. Volcanoes are usually not created where two tectonic plates slide past one another. Large eruptions can affect atmospheric temperature as ash and droplets of sulfuric acid obscure the Sun and cool Earth's troposphere. Historically, large volcanic eruptions have been followed by volcanic winters which have caused catastrophic famines. Earth's Moon has no large volcanoes and no current volcanic activity, although recent evidence suggests it may still possess a partially molten core.[26] However, the Moon does have many volcanic features such as maria (the darker patches seen on the Moon), rilles and domes. The planet Venus has a surface that is 90% basalt, indicating that volcanism played a major role in shaping its surface. The planet may have had a major global resurfacing event about 500 million years ago, from what scientists can tell from the density of impact craters on the surface. Lava flows are widespread and forms of volcanism not present on Earth occur as well. Changes in the planet's atmosphere and observations of lightning have been attributed to ongoing volcanic eruptions, although there is no confirmation of whether or not Venus is still volcanically active. However, radar sounding by the Magellan probe revealed evidence for comparatively recent volcanic activity at Venus's highest volcano Maat Mons, in the form of ash flows near the summit and on the northern flank. However, the interpretation of the flows as ash flows has been questioned. There are several extinct volcanoes on Mars, four of which are vast shield volcanoes far bigger than any on Earth. They include Arsia Mons, Ascraeus Mons, Hecates Tholus, Olympus Mons, and Pavonis Mons. These volcanoes have been extinct for many millions of years, but the European Mars Express spacecraft has found evidence that volcanic activity may have occurred on Mars in the recent past as well. Jupiter's moon Io is the most volcanically active object in the Solar System because of tidal interaction with Jupiter. It is covered with volcanoes that erupt sulfur, sulfur dioxide and silicate rock, and as a result, Io is constantly being resurfaced. Its lavas are the hottest known anywhere in the Solar System, with temperatures exceeding 1,800 K (1,500 °C). In February 2001, the largest recorded volcanic eruptions in the Solar System occurred on Io. Europa, the smallest of Jupiter's Galilean moons, also appears to have an active volcanic system, except that its volcanic activity is entirely in the form of water, which freezes into ice on the frigid surface. This process is known as cryovolcanism, and is apparently most common on the moons of the outer planets of the Solar System. In 1989, the Voyager 2 spacecraft observed cryovolcanoes (ice volcanoes) on Triton, a moon of Neptune, and in 2005 the Cassini–Huygens probe photographed fountains of frozen particles erupting from Enceladus, a moon of Saturn. The ejecta may be composed of water, liquid nitrogen, ammonia, dust, or methane compounds. Cassini–Huygens also found evidence of a methane-spewing cryovolcano on the Saturnian moon Titan, which is believed to be a significant source of the methane found in its atmosphere. It is theorized that cryovolcanism may also be present on the Kuiper Belt Object Quaoar. A 2010 study of the exoplanet COROT-7b, which was detected by transit in 2009, suggested that tidal heating from the host star very close to the planet and neighboring planets could generate intense volcanic activity similar to that found on Io.
A biological hazard, or biohazard, is a biological substance that poses a threat (or is a hazard) to the health of living organisms, primarily humans. This could include a sample of a microorganism, virus or toxin that can adversely affect human health. A biohazard could also be a substance harmful to other living beings. The term and its associated symbol are generally used as a warning, so that those potentially exposed to the substances will know to take precautions. The biohazard symbol was developed in 1966 by Charles Baldwin, an environmental-health engineer working for the Dow Chemical Company on their containment products. It is used in the labeling of biological materials that carry a significant health risk, including viral samples and used hypodermic needles. In Unicode, the biohazard symbol is U+2623 (☣). The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) categorizes various diseases in levels of biohazard, Level 1 being minimum risk and Level 4 being extreme risk. Laboratories and other facilities are categorized as BSL (Biosafety Level) 1–4 or as P1 through P4 for short (Pathogen or Protection Level). Biohazard Level 1: Bacteria and viruses including Bacillus subtilis, canine hepatitis, Escherichia coli, and varicella (chickenpox), as well as some cell cultures and non-infectious bacteria. At this level precautions against the biohazardous materials in question are minimal, most likely involving gloves and some sort of facial protection. Biohazard Level 2: Bacteria and viruses that cause only mild disease to humans, or are difficult to contract via aerosol in a lab setting, such as hepatitis A, B, and C, some influenza A strains, Human respiratory syncytial virus, Lyme disease, salmonella, mumps, measles, scrapie, dengue fever, and HIV. Routine diagnostic work with clinical specimens can be done safely at Biosafety Level 2, using Biosafety Level 2 practices and procedures. Research work (including co-cultivation, virus replication studies, or manipulations involving concentrated virus) can be done in a BSL-2 (P2) facility, using BSL-3 practices and procedures. Biohazard Level 3: Bacteria and viruses that can cause severe to fatal disease in humans, but for which vaccines or other treatments exist, such as anthrax, West Nile virus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis, SARS coronavirus, MERS coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A H5N1, hantaviruses, tuberculosis, typhus, Rift Valley fever, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, yellow fever, and malaria. Biohazard Level 4: Viruses that cause severe to fatal disease in humans, and for which vaccines or other treatments are not available, such as Bolivian hemorrhagic fever, Marburg virus, Ebola virus, Lassa fever virus, Crimean–Congo hemorrhagic fever, and other hemorrhagic diseases, as well as Nipah virus. Variola virus (smallpox) is an agent that is worked with at BSL-4 despite the existence of a vaccine, as it has been eradicated and thus the general population is no longer routinely vaccinated. When dealing with biological hazards at this level, the use of a positive pressure personnel suit with a segregated air supply is mandatory. The entrance and exit of a Level Four biolab will contain multiple showers, a vacuum room, an ultraviolet light room, autonomous detection system, and other safety precautions designed to destroy all traces of the biohazard. Multiple airlocks are employed and are electronically secured to prevent doors from both opening at the same time. All air and water service going to and coming from a Biosafety Level 4 (P4) lab will undergo similar decontamination procedures to eliminate the possibility of an accidental release. Currently there are no bacteria classified at this level.
In quantum field theory, a false vacuum is a hypothetical vacuum that is relatively stable, but not in the most stable state possible. In this condition it is called metastable. It may last for a very long time in this state, but could eventually decay to the more stable one, an event known as false vacuum decay. The most common suggestion of how such a decay might happen in our universe is called bubble nucleation – if a small region of the universe by chance reached a more stable vacuum, this "bubble" (also called "bounce") would spread. A false vacuum exists at a local minimum of energy and is therefore not completely stable, in contrast to a true vacuum, which exists at a global minimum and is stable. A vacuum is defined as a space with as little energy in it as possible. Despite the name, the vacuum still has quantum fields. A true vacuum is stable because it is at a global minimum of energy, and is commonly assumed to coincide with the physical vacuum state we live in. It is possible that a physical vacuum state is a configuration of quantum fields representing a local minimum but not global minimum of energy. This type of vacuum state is called a "false vacuum". If our universe is in a false vacuum state rather than a true vacuum state, then the decay from the less stable false vacuum to the more stable true vacuum (called false vacuum decay) could have dramatic consequences. The effects could range from complete cessation of existing fundamental forces, elementary particles and structures comprising them, to subtle change in some cosmological parameters, mostly depending on the potential difference between true and false vacuum. Some false vacuum decay scenarios are compatible with survival of structures like galaxies, stars, and even biological life, while others involve the full destruction of baryonic matter[10] or even immediate gravitational collapse of the universe. In this more extreme case, the likelihood of a "bubble" forming is very low (i.e. false vacuum decay may be impossible). A paper by Coleman and de Luccia which attempted to include simple gravitational assumptions into these theories noted that if this was an accurate representation of nature, then the resulting universe "inside the bubble" in such a case would appear to be extremely unstable and would almost immediately collapse: In general, gravitation makes the probability of vacuum decay smaller; in the extreme case of very small energy-density difference, it can even stabilize the false vacuum, preventing vacuum decay altogether. We believe we understand this. For the vacuum to decay, it must be possible to build a bubble of total energy zero. In the absence of gravitation, this is no problem, no matter how small the energy-density difference; all one has to do is make the bubble big enough, and the volume/surface ratio will do the job. In the presence of gravitation, though, the negative energy density of the true vacuum distorts geometry within the bubble with the result that, for a small enough energy density, there is no bubble with a big enough volume/surface ratio. Within the bubble, the effects of gravitation are more dramatic. The geometry of space-time within the bubble is that of anti-de Sitter space, a space much like conventional de Sitter space except that its group of symmetries is O(3, 2) rather than O(4, 1). Although this space-time is free of singularities, it is unstable under small perturbations, and inevitably suffers gravitational collapse of the same sort as the end state of a contracting Friedmann universe. The time required for the collapse of the interior universe is on the order of ... microseconds or less. The possibility that we are living in a false vacuum has never been a cheering one to contemplate. Vacuum decay is the ultimate ecological catastrophe; in the new vacuum there are new constants of nature; after vacuum decay, not only is life as we know it impossible, so is chemistry as we know it. However, one could always draw stoic comfort from the possibility that perhaps in the course of time the new vacuum would sustain, if not life as we know it, at least some structures capable of knowing joy. This possibility has now been eliminated. The second special case is decay into a space of vanishing cosmological constant, the case that applies if we are now living in the debris of a false vacuum which decayed at some early cosmic epoch. This case presents us with less interesting physics and with fewer occasions for rhetorical excess than the preceding one. It is now the interior of the bubble that is ordinary Minkowski space ... — Sidney Coleman and Frank De Luccia In a 2005 paper published in Nature, as part of their investigation into global catastrophic risks, MIT physicist Max Tegmark and Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom calculate the natural risks of the destruction of the Earth at less than 1/109 per year from all natural (i.e. non-anthropogenic) events, including a transition to a lower vacuum state. They argue that due to observer selection effects, we might underestimate the chances of being destroyed by vacuum decay because any information about this event would reach us only at the instant when we too were destroyed. This is in contrast to events like risks from impacts, gamma-ray bursts, supernovae and hypernovae, the frequencies of which we have adequate direct measures. Inflation A number of theories suggest that cosmic inflation may be an effect of a false vacuum decaying into the true vacuum. The inflation itself may be the consequence of the Higgs field trapped in a false vacuum state with Higgs self-coupling λ and its βλ function very close to zero at the planck scale: 218  A future electron-positron collider would be able to provide the precise measurements of the top quark needed for such calculations. Chaotic inflation theory suggests that the universe may be in either a false vacuum or a true vacuum state. Alan Guth, in his original proposal for cosmic inflation, proposed that inflation could end through quantum mechanical bubble nucleation of the sort described above. See history of Chaotic inflation theory. It was soon understood that a homogeneous and isotropic universe could not be preserved through the violent tunneling process. This led Andrei Linde and, independently, Andreas Albrecht and Paul Steinhardt, to propose "new inflation" or "slow roll inflation" in which no tunnelling occurs, and the inflationary scalar field instead graphs as a gentle slope. In 2014, researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Wuhan Institute of Physics and Mathematics suggested that the universe could have been spontaneously created from nothing (no space, time, nor matter) by quantum fluctuations of metastable false vacuum causing an expanding bubble of true vacuum. In a study in 2015, it was pointed out that the vacuum decay rate could be vastly increased in the vicinity of black holes, which would serve as a nucleation seed. According to this study, a potentially catastrophic vacuum decay could be triggered at any time by primordial black holes, should they exist. The authors note, however, that if primordial black holes cause a false vacuum collapse, then it should have happened long before humans evolved on Earth. A subsequent study in 2017 indicated that the bubble would collapse into a primordial black hole rather than originate from it, either by ordinary collapse or by bending space in such a way that it breaks off into a new universe. In 2019, it was found that although small non-spinning black holes may increase true vacuum nucleation rate, rapidly spinning black holes will stabilize false vacuums to decay rates lower than expected for flat space-time. If particle collisions produce mini black holes, then energetic collisions such as the ones produced in the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) could trigger such a vacuum decay event, a scenario which has attracted the attention of the news media. It is likely to be unrealistic, because if such mini black holes can be created in collisions, they would also be created in the much more energetic collisions of cosmic radiation particles with planetary surfaces or during the early life of the universe as tentative primordial black holes. Hut and Rees note that, because cosmic ray collisions have been observed at much higher energies than those produced in terrestrial particle accelerators, these experiments should not, at least for the foreseeable future, pose a threat to our current vacuum. Particle accelerators have reached energies of only approximately eight tera electron volts (8×1012 eV). Cosmic ray collisions have been observed at and beyond energies of 5×1019 eV, six million times more powerful – the so-called Greisen–Zatsepin–Kuzmin limit – and cosmic rays in vicinity of origin may be more powerful yet. John Leslie has argued that if present trends continue, particle accelerators will exceed the energy given off in naturally occurring cosmic ray collisions by the year 2150. Fears of this kind were raised by critics of both the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and the Large Hadron Collider at the time of their respective proposal, and determined to be unfounded by scientific inquiry. In a 2021 paper by Rostislav Konoplich and others, it was postulated that the area between a pair of large black holes on the verge of colliding could provide the conditions to create bubbles of "true vacuum". Intersecting surfaces between these bubbles could then become infinitely dense and form micro-black holes. These would in turn evaporate by emitting Hawking radiation in the 10 milliseconds or so before the larger black holes collided and devoured any bubbles or micro-black holes in their way. The theory could be tested by looking for the Hawking radiation emitted just before the black holes merge.
A rogue black hole (also termed a free-floating, interstellar, nomad, orphan, unbound or wandering black hole) is an intergalactic object (i.e., an object without a host galactic group). They are caused by collisions between two galaxies or when the merging of two black holes is disrupted. It has been estimated that there could be 12 rogue black holes on the edge of the Milky Way galaxy. In January 2022, a team of astronomers reported of OGLE-2011-BLG-0462 the first unambiguous detection and mass measurement of an isolated stellar black hole using the Hubble Space Telescope together with the Microlensing Observations in Astrophysics (MOA) and the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE). This black hole is located 5,000 light-years away, has a mass 7.1 times that of the Sun, and moves at about 45 km/s. While there have been other candidates, they have been detected more indirectly.
A solar flare is a relatively intense, localized emission of electromagnetic radiation in the Sun's atmosphere. Flares occur in active regions and are often, but not always, accompanied by coronal mass ejections, solar particle events, and other eruptive solar phenomena. The occurrence of solar flares varies with the 11-year solar cycle. Solar flares are thought to occur when stored magnetic energy in the Sun's atmosphere accelerates charged particles in the surrounding plasma. This results in the emission of electromagnetic radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum. The extreme ultraviolet and X-ray radiation from solar flares is absorbed by the daylight side of Earth's upper atmosphere, in particular the ionosphere, and does not reach the surface. This absorption can temporarily increase the ionization of the ionosphere which may interfere with short-wave radio communication. The prediction of solar flares is an active area of research. Flares also occur on other stars, where the term stellar flare applies. X-ray and extreme ultraviolet radiation emitted by solar flares are absorbed by the daylight side of Earth's atmosphere and do not reach the Earth's surface. Therefore, solar flares pose no direct danger to life on Earth. However, this absorption of high-energy electromagnetic radiation can temporarily increase the ionization of the upper atmosphere, which can interfere with short-wave radio communication, and can temporarily heat and expand the Earth's outer atmosphere. This expansion can increase drag on satellites in low Earth orbit, which can lead to orbital decay over time. The temporary increase in ionization of the daylight side of Earth's atmosphere, in particular the D layer of the ionosphere, can interfere with short-wave radio communications that rely on its level of ionization for skywave propagation. Skywave, or skip, refers to the propagation of radio waves reflected or refracted off of the ionized ionosphere. When ionization is higher than normal, radio waves get degraded or completely absorbed by losing energy from the more frequent collisions with free electrons. The level of ionization of the atmosphere correlates with the strength of the associated solar flare in soft X-ray radiation. The Space Weather Prediction Center, a part of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, classifies radio blackouts by the peak soft X-ray intensity of the associated flare. The increased ionization of the ionosphere's D and E layers caused by large solar flares increases the electrical conductivity of these layers allowing for the flow of electric currents. These ionospheric currents induce a magnetic field which can be measured by ground-based magnetometers. This phenomenon is known as a magnetic crochet or solar flare effect (SFE). These disturbances are on the order of a few nanoteslas, which is relatively minor compared to those induced by geomagnetic storms. For astronauts in low Earth orbit, an expected radiation dose from the electromagnetic radiation emitted during a solar flare is about 0.05 gray, which is not immediately lethal on its own. Of much more concern for astronauts is the particle radiation associated with solar particle events.
A geomagnetic reversal is a change in a planet's dipole magnetic field such that the positions of magnetic north and magnetic south are interchanged (not to be confused with geographic north and geographic south). The Earth's magnetic field has alternated between periods of normal polarity, in which the predominant direction of the field was the same as the present direction, and reverse polarity, in which it was the opposite. These periods are called chrons. Reversal occurrences are statistically random. There have been at least 183 reversals over the last 83 million years (on average once every ~450,000 years). The latest, the Brunhes–Matuyama reversal, occurred 780,000 years ago with widely varying estimates of how quickly it happened. Other sources estimate that the time that it takes for a reversal to complete is on average around 7,000 years for the four most recent reversals. Clement (2004) suggests that this duration is dependent on latitude, with shorter durations at low latitudes and longer durations at mid and high latitudes. Although variable, the duration of a full reversal is typically between 2,000 and 12,000 years. Although there have been periods in which the field reversed globally (such as the Laschamp excursion) for several hundred years, these events are classified as excursions rather than full geomagnetic reversals. Stable polarity chrons often show large, rapid directional excursions, which occur more often than reversals, and could be seen as failed reversals. During such an excursion, the field reverses in the liquid outer core but not in the solid inner core. Diffusion in the outer core is on timescales of 500 years or less while that of the inner core is longer, around 3,000 years. The magnetic field of the Earth, and of other planets that have magnetic fields, is generated by dynamo action in which convection of molten iron in the planetary core generates electric currents which in turn give rise to magnetic fields. In simulations of planetary dynamos, reversals often emerge spontaneously from the underlying dynamics. For example, Gary Glatzmaier and collaborator Paul Roberts of UCLA ran a numerical model of the coupling between electromagnetism and fluid dynamics in the Earth's interior. Their simulation reproduced key features of the magnetic field over more than 40,000 years of simulated time, and the computer-generated field reversed itself. Global field reversals at irregular intervals have also been observed in the laboratory liquid metal experiment "VKS2". In some simulations, this leads to an instability in which the magnetic field spontaneously flips over into the opposite orientation. This scenario is supported by observations of the solar magnetic field, which undergoes spontaneous reversals every 9–12 years. With the Sun it is observed that the solar magnetic intensity greatly increases during a reversal, whereas reversals on Earth seem to occur during periods of low field strength. Some scientists, such as Richard A. Muller, think that geomagnetic reversals are not spontaneous processes but rather are triggered by external events that directly disrupt the flow in the Earth's core. Proposals include impact events or internal events such as the arrival of continental slabs carried down into the mantle by the action of plate tectonics at subduction zones or the initiation of new mantle plumes from the core-mantle boundary. Supporters of this hypothesis hold that any of these events could lead to a large scale disruption of the dynamo, effectively turning off the geomagnetic field. Because the magnetic field is stable in either the present north–south orientation or a reversed orientation, they propose that when the field recovers from such a disruption it spontaneously chooses one state or the other, such that half the recoveries become reversals. This proposed mechanism does not appear to work in a quantitative model, and the evidence from stratigraphy for a correlation between reversals and impact events is weak. There is no evidence for a reversal connected with the impact event that caused the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event. Shortly after the first geomagnetic polarity time scales were produced, scientists began exploring the possibility that reversals could be linked to extinction events. Many such arguments were based on an apparent periodicity in the rate of reversals, but more careful analyses show that the reversal record is not periodic. It may be that the ends of superchrons have caused vigorous convection leading to widespread volcanism, and that the subsequent airborne ash caused extinctions. Tests of correlations between extinctions and reversals are difficult for several reasons. Larger animals are too scarce in the fossil record for good statistics, so paleontologists have analyzed microfossil extinctions. Even microfossil data can be unreliable if there are hiatuses in the fossil record. It can appear that the extinction occurs at the end of a polarity interval when the rest of that polarity interval was simply eroded away. Statistical analysis shows no evidence for a correlation between reversals and extinctions. Most proposals tying reversals to extinction events assume that the Earth's magnetic field would be much weaker during reversals. Possibly the first such hypothesis was that high-energy particles trapped in the Van Allen radiation belt could be liberated and bombard the Earth. Detailed calculations confirm that if the Earth's dipole field disappeared entirely (leaving the quadrupole and higher components), most of the atmosphere would become accessible to high-energy particles but would act as a barrier to them, and cosmic ray collisions would produce secondary radiation of beryllium-10 or chlorine-36. A 2012 German study of Greenland ice cores showed a peak of beryllium-10 during a brief complete reversal 41,000 years ago, which led to the magnetic field strength dropping to an estimated 5% of normal during the reversal. There is evidence that this occurs both during secular variation and during reversals. A hypothesis by McCormac and Evans assumes that the Earth's field disappears entirely during reversals. They argue that the atmosphere of Mars may have been eroded away by the solar wind because it had no magnetic field to protect it. They predict that ions would be stripped away from Earth's atmosphere above 100 km. Paleointensity measurements show that the magnetic field has not disappeared during reversals. Based on paleointensity data for the last 800,000 years, the magnetopause is still estimated to have been at about three Earth radii during the Brunhes–Matuyama reversal. Even if the internal magnetic field did disappear, the solar wind can induce a magnetic field in the Earth's ionosphere sufficient to shield the surface from energetic particles.
An AI takeover is an imagined scenario in which artificial intelligence (AI) emerges as the dominant form of intelligence on Earth and computer programs or robots effectively take control of the planet away from the human species, which relies on human intelligence. Stories of AI takeovers remain popular throughout science fiction, but recent advancements have made the threat more real. Possible scenarios include replacement of the entire human workforce due to automation, takeover by a superintelligent AI (ASI), and the notion of a robot uprising. Some public figures, such as Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk, have advocated research into precautionary measures to ensure future superintelligent machines remain under human control. The traditional consensus among economists has been that technological progress does not cause long-term unemployment. However, recent innovation in the fields of robotics and artificial intelligence has raised worries that human labor will become obsolete, leaving people in various sectors without jobs to earn a living, leading to an economic crisis. Many small and medium size businesses may also be driven out of business if they cannot afford or licence the latest robotic and AI technology, and may need to focus on areas or services that cannot easily be replaced for continued viability in the face of such technology. AI technologies have been widely adopted in recent years. While these technologies have replaced some traditional workers, they also create new opportunities. Industries that are most susceptible to AI takeover include transportation, retail, and military. AI military technologies, for example, allow soldiers to work remotely without risk of injury. Author Dave Bond argues that as AI technologies continue to develop and expand, the relationship between humans and robots will change; they will become closely integrated in several aspects of life. AI will likely displace some workers while creating opportunities for new jobs in other sectors, especially in fields where tasks are repeatable. Computer-integrated manufacturing uses computers to control the production process. This allows individual processes to exchange information with each other and initiate actions. Although manufacturing can be faster and less error-prone by the integration of computers, the main advantage is the ability to create automated manufacturing processes. Computer-integrated manufacturing is used in automotive, aviation, space, and ship building industries. The 21st century has seen a variety of skilled tasks partially taken over by machines, including translation, legal research, and journalism. Care work, entertainment, and other tasks requiring empathy, previously thought safe from automation, have also begun to be performed by robots. An autonomous car is a vehicle that is capable of sensing its environment and navigating without human input. Many such vehicles are being developed, but as of May 2017, automated cars permitted on public roads are not yet fully autonomous. They all require a human driver at the wheel who at a moment's notice can take control of the vehicle. Among the obstacles to widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles are concerns about the resulting loss of driving-related jobs in the road transport industry. On March 18, 2018, the first human was killed by an autonomous vehicle in Tempe, Arizona by an Uber self-driving car. The use of automated content has become relevant since the technological advancements in artificial intelligence models such as ChatGPT, DALL-E, and Stable Diffusion. In most cases, AI-generated content such as imagery, literature, and music are produced through text prompts and these AI models have been integrated into other creative programs. Artists are threatened by displacement from AI-generated content due to these models sampling from other creative works, producing results sometimes indiscernible to those of man-made content. This complication has become widespread enough to where other artists and programmers are creating software and utility programs to retaliate against these text-to-image models from giving accurate outputs. While some industries in the economy benefit from artificial intelligence through new jobs, this issue does not create new jobs and threatens replacement entirely. It has made public headlines in the media recently: In February 2024, Willy's Chocolate Experience in Glasgow, Scotland was an infamous children's event in which the imagery and scripts were created using artificial intelligence models to the dismay of children, parents, and actors involved. There is an ongoing lawsuit placed against OpenAI from The New York Times where it is claimed that there is copyright infringement due to the sampling methods their artificial intelligence models use for their outputs. Scientists such as Stephen Hawking are confident that superhuman artificial intelligence is physically possible, stating "there is no physical law precluding particles from being organised in ways that perform even more advanced computations than the arrangements of particles in human brains". Scholars like Nick Bostrom debate how far off superhuman intelligence is, and whether it poses a risk to mankind. According to Bostrom, a superintelligent machine would not necessarily be motivated by the same emotional desire to collect power that often drives human beings but might rather treat power as a means toward attaining its ultimate goals; taking over the world would both increase its access to resources and help to prevent other agents from stopping the machine's plans. As an oversimplified example, a paperclip maximizer designed solely to create as many paperclips as possible would want to take over the world so that it can use all of the world's resources to create as many paperclips as possible, and, additionally, prevent humans from shutting it down or using those resources on things other than paperclips. Physicist Stephen Hawking, Microsoft founder Bill Gates, and SpaceX founder Elon Musk have expressed concerns about the possibility that AI could develop to the point that humans could not control it, with Hawking theorizing that this could "spell the end of the human race". Stephen Hawking said in 2014 that "Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks." Hawking believed that in the coming decades, AI could offer "incalculable benefits and risks" such as "technology outsmarting financial markets, out-inventing human researchers, out-manipulating human leaders, and developing weapons we cannot even understand." In January 2015, Nick Bostrom joined Stephen Hawking, Max Tegmark, Elon Musk, Lord Martin Rees, Jaan Tallinn, and numerous AI researchers in signing the Future of Life Institute's open letter speaking to the potential risks and benefits associated with artificial intelligence. The signatories "believe that research on how to make AI systems robust and beneficial is both important and timely, and that there are concrete research directions that can be pursued today." Arthur C. Clarke's Odyssey series and Charles Stross's Accelerando relate to humanity's narcissistic injuries in the face of powerful artificial intelligences threatening humanity's self-perception.
According to the Book of Revelation in the New Testament of the Christian Bible, Armageddon (/ˌɑːrməˈɡɛdən/; Ancient Greek: Ἁρμαγεδών Harmagedṓn; Late Latin: Armagedōn; from Hebrew: הַר מְגִדּוֹ‎ Har Məgīddō) is the prophesied location of a gathering of armies for a battle during the end times, which is variously interpreted as either a literal or a symbolic location. The term is also used in a generic sense to refer to any end-of-the-world scenario. In Islamic theology, Armageddon is also mentioned in Hadith as the Greatest Armageddon or Al-Malhama Al-Kubra (the great battle). The "mount" of Megiddo in northern Israel is not actually a mountain, but a tell (a mound or hill created by many generations of people living and rebuilding at the same spot) on which ancient forts were built to guard the Via Maris, an ancient trade route linking Egypt with the northern empires of Syria, Anatolia and Mesopotamia. Megiddo was the location of various ancient battles, including one in the 15th century BC and one in 609 BC. The nearby modern Megiddo is a kibbutz in the Kishon River area. The word Armageddon appears only once in the Greek New Testament, in Revelation 16:16. The word is a Greek transliteration of the Hebrew har məgiddô (הר מגידו). Har means "a mountain or range of hills". This is a shortened form of harar meaning "to loom up; a mountain". Megiddo refers to a fortification made by King Ahab that dominated the Plain of Jezreel. Its name means "place of crowds". Adam Clarke wrote in his Bible commentary (1817) on Revelation 16:16: Armageddon - The original of this word has been variously formed, and variously translated. It is הר־מגדון har-megiddon, "the mount of the assembly;" or חרמה גדהון chormah gedehon, "the destruction of their army;" or it is הר־מגדו har-megiddo, "Mount Megiddo," Megiddo is mentioned twelve times in the Old Testament, ten times in reference to the ancient city of Megiddo, and twice with reference to "the plain of Megiddo", most probably simply meaning "the plain next to the city". None of these Old Testament passages describes the city of Megiddo as being associated with any particular prophetic beliefs. The one New Testament reference to the city of Armageddon found in Revelation 16:16 makes no specific mention of any armies being predicted to one day gather in this city, either, but instead seems to predict only that "they (will gather) the kings together to ... Armageddon". The text does however seem to imply, based on the text from the earlier passage of Revelation 16:14, that the purpose of this gathering of kings in the "place called Armageddon" is "for the war of the great day of God, the Almighty". Because of the seemingly highly symbolic and even cryptic language of this one New Testament passage, some Christian scholars conclude that Mount Armageddon must be an idealized location. R. J. Rushdoony says, "There are no mountains of Megiddo, only the Plains of Megiddo. This is a deliberate destruction of the vision of any literal reference to the place." Other scholars, including C. C. Torrey, Kline and Jordan, argue that the word is derived from the Hebrew moed (מועד), meaning "assembly". Thus, "Armageddon" would mean "Mountain of Assembly", which Jordan says is "a reference to the assembly at Mount Sinai, and to its replacement, Mount Zion". Most traditions interpret this Bible prophecy to be symbolic of the progression of the world toward the "great day of God, the Almighty" in which God pours out his just and holy wrath against unrepentant sinners led by Satan, in a literal end-of-the-world final confrontation. 'Armageddon' is the symbolic name given to this event based on scripture references regarding divine obliteration of God's enemies. The hermeneutical method supports this position by referencing Judges 4 and 5 where God miraculously destroys the enemy of their elect, Israel, at Megiddo. Christian scholar William Hendriksen writes: For this cause, Har Magedon is the symbol of every battle in which, when the need is greatest and believers are oppressed, the Lord suddenly reveals His power in the interest of His distressed people and defeats the enemy. When Sennacherib's 185,000 are slain by the Angel of Jehovah, that is a shadow of the final Har-Magedon. When God grants a little handful of Maccabees a glorious victory over an enemy which far outnumbers it, that is a type of Har-Magedon. But the real, the great, the final Har Magedon coincides with the time of Satan’s little season. Then the world, under the leadership of Satan, anti-Christian government, and anti-Christian religion – the dragon, the beast, and the false prophet – is gathered against the Church for the final battle, and the need is greatest; when God's children, oppressed on every side, cry for help; then suddenly, Christ will appear on the clouds of glory to deliver his people; that is Har-Magedon. In his discussion of Armageddon, J. Dwight Pentecost has devoted a chapter to the subject, "The Campaign of Armageddon", in which he discusses it as a campaign and not a specific battle, which will be fought in the Middle East. Pentecost writes: It has been held commonly that the battle of Armageddon is an isolated event transpiring just prior to the second advent of Christ to the earth. The extent of this great movement in which God deals with "the kings of the earth and of the whole world" will not be seen unless it is realized that the "battle of that great day of God Almighty" is not an isolated battle, but rather a campaign that extends over the last half of the tribulation period. The Greek word "polemo", translated "battle" in Revelation 16:14, signifies a war or campaign, while "machē" signifies a battle, and sometimes even single combat. This distinction is observed by Trench (see Richard C. Trench, New Testament Synonyms, pp. 301–32) and is followed by Thayer (see Joseph Henry Thayer, Greek-English Lexicon of the New Testament, p. 528) and Vincent (see Marvin R. Vincent, Word Studies in the New Testament, II, 541). The use of the word polemos (campaign) in Revelation 16:14 signifies that God views the events culminating in the gathering at Armageddon at the second advent as one connected campaign. — Pentecost, p. 340 Pentecost then discusses the location of this campaign, and mentions the "hill of Megiddo" and other geographic locations such as "the valley of Jehoshaphat" and "the valley of the passengers", "Lord coming from Edom or Idumea, south of Jerusalem, when he returns from the judgment"; and Jerusalem itself. Pentecost further describes the area involved: This wide area would cover the entire land of Israel and this campaign, with all its parts, would confirm what Ezekiel pictures when he says the invaders will 'cover the land'. This area would conform to the extent pictured by John in Revelation 14:20. Pentecost then outlines the biblical time period for this campaign to occur and with further arguments concludes that it must take place with the 70th week of Daniel. The invasion of Israel by the Northern Confederacy "will bring the Beast and his armies to the defense of Israel as her protector". He then uses Daniel to further clarify his thinking. Again, events are listed by Pentecost in his book: "The movement of the campaign begins when the King of the South moves against the Beast–False Prophet coalition, which takes place 'at the time of the end'." The King of the South gets in battle with the North King and the Northern Confederacy. Jerusalem is destroyed as a result of this attack, and, in turn, the armies of the Northern Confederacy are destroyed.[29] "The full armies of the Beast move into Israel and shall conquer all that territory. Edom, Moab, and Ammon alone escape." "... a report that causes alarm is brought to the Beast" "The Beast moves his headquarters into the land of Israel and assembles his armies there." "It is there that his destruction will come." After the destruction of the Beast at the Second Coming of Jesus, the promised Kingdom is set up, in which Jesus and the saints will rule for a thousand years. Satan is then loosed "for a season" and goes out to deceive the nations, specifically Gog and Magog. The army mentioned attacks the saints in the New Jerusalem, they are defeated by a judgment of fire coming down from heaven, and then comes the Great White Throne judgment, which includes all of those through the ages and these are cast into the Lake of Fire, which event is also known as the "second death" and Gehenna, not to be confused with Hell, which is Satan's domain. Pentecost describes this as follows: The destiny of the lost is a place in the lake of fire. This lake of fire is described as everlasting fire and as unquenchable fire, emphasizing the eternal character of retribution of the lost. — Pentecost, p. 555

Friday, February 23, 2024

Chevy Bolt EUV (review)

Chevy Bolt EUV Likes: Starting price is attractive. Spacious for its small portions. Plenty of zip around town. An easy car to live with. Dislikes: No fast charge. It takes forever to charge. Range is limited. The Chevy Bolt EUV is one of the most affordable electric cars you can ever purchase. We’ve spent a week with one to see if it would persuade us to consider one. After the week, we’ve learned a lot about electric cars. We feel that despite it being so “cheap”. It’s a good overall package, however, it isn’t the best package out there. Here’s why. Tesla may have the best electric vehicles in terms of range. However, not everyone can afford one. Thus, the Bolt EUV is the perfect package. It starts at $28,000* and rises up to $37,000* depending upon which trim level you choose. (LT and Premier). We were given the Premier trim level which came kitted with ventilated leather seats, heated steering wheel and a very nice panoramic sunroof. However, $37,000 isn’t anything to snuff at. But, compared to a Model 3 we’ve seen. This is pretty much a decent deal. Driving the Bolt EUV is an easy affair. Its dinky dimensions make it easy to navigate around town and narrow parking bays. We love how quick the Bolt EUV feels on its feet. You can zip around town with sheer confidence. Steering feedback is good, and it handles quite nicely as well. However, on faster paced roads. You may wish you had a bit more flexibility as it struggles to keep up with faster traffic. Also, when you really put your foot down the range does suffer. And we are putting this mildly. Overall, it’s an easy vehicle to live with if you keep a light foot on the throttle. The ride comfort is decent. It’s not luxury car comfortable but it’s better than most comparable vehicles we’ve driven (non-electric). We say this in terms of pricing. Living with a Bolt EUV is more of a lifestyle choice than anything else. Let me explain. Petrol-powered vehicles you can fill up your tank in a few seconds or minutes and be done. Electric cars, you’ll have to wait for it to recharge. Depending upon the vehicle you choose. Tesla and many other electric cars out there have fast charge capability. Meaning that you can get from a low percentage to 80% in less than 30 minutes. However, with the Bolt EUV. There is no such thing as “fast charging”. You’ll be waiting the full hour or maybe longer depending upon where you are recharging the batteries from. I highly suggest that you go once you’re at half battery. The Bolt has an estimated 247 miles of range. Which in theory should be enough for a commute to and from work. However, that’s a “theory”. When you are in stop and go traffic, using the air-con or heated seats. Well, any type of accessory that will drain the battery fast. You’ll immediately see why the Bolt’s small range can be a bit of a headache. You’re forced to choose comfort over range. I don’t mind giving up a bit of comfort, however, when it’s almost 80 degrees with the sun beaming into the cabin and you’re in stop and go traffic. You’re going to want to have some comfort after a while. Again, we constantly keep mentioning Tesla. However, the Model Y we test drove seem to have a better balance of range and comfort. We had the air-con on and it didn’t harm the range as badly as in the Bolt EUV. Again, we know the price point between the two vehicles. However, we are just mentioning this because you are giving up quite a bit in terms of everyday usability with the Bolt EUV. The cabin has a nice feel in terms of materials and quality. The large 8-inch display is very easy to navigate through. Apple Carplay is seamless to use overall. The driving position is spot on good. You can see monitor the corners of the car with sheer confidence. The boot is generous in space. If you need more space you can fold down the rear seats. Do we see ourselves owning a Bolt EUV? Yes and No. We say “yes” because it’s a decent electric vehicle to own. If your commute is short and you don’t mind compromising on some comfort features. The Bolt EUV is the perfect commuter car. However, we say “no” because the range is quite limited. There’s no fast charging so you’re going to be waiting at the charging station for a while. I don’t mind giving up the time while waiting because I was able to do homework or work-related tasks. I was even able to do a few TikTok videos, edit them and post them. Yes, you will be waiting an hour for recharging. Living with the Bolt EUV has shown us that electric car technology has come a long way. We know there are better options out there. Many of them can use fast charging. We feel that those are better options in the long-term. Owners who have a garage will enjoy the Bolt EUV because you can simply plug it in at night and use it the next morning. However, those like us who don’t have that luxury. The Bolt EUV is more compromised and doesn’t make a convincing argument for us. We loved it overall, but we just wish the range wasn’t compromised and there was fast charging capability.