MARDI GRAS MADNESS: Bourbon St Red Sox

Felipe M

As explained in the last article, I'll be posting my fantasy baseball keeper league predictions on this website.  

To view my team, click here. 

I posted predictions for the Co-Commissioner's team, the Castroville Crushers.  No we take a look at the other Co-Commissioner's team.

WEST DIVISION—BOURBON ST RED SOX (out of New Orleans, LA)

BATTING LINEUP

Like: Prince Fielder proved that there was no ballpark big enough to deny his power.  Looking for a bounce-back season from Jacoby Ellsbury as well.  The future of this team is Bryce Harper whom is still improving on his skills and still young enough to post bigger numbers—this after coming off an All-Star season in 2012.  I also like Norichika Aoki: what he lacks in power, he makes up in a very patient approach at the plate and is a speedy baserunner with 30+ steals appeal.

2013 Hitting Projections
Player	Team	BB/K	AB/K	AB/HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB
Jacoby Ellsbury	Boston	0.50	7.00	33.39	0.343	0.454	0.798	27
Prince Fielder	Detroit	0.97	5.73	17.55	0.417	0.533	0.950	1

 

Dislike: Big-cut swingers Rickie Weeks, Mike Moustakas, and J.J. Hardy; projected to combine for 353 strikeouts (118 a piece).  And that’s not mentioning Adam Dunn’s strikeout totals as his career is dipping rapidly.  Obviously, his appeal is in his power, but should not belong on any fantasy team, at least not this early in the season.

Look Out For: Jesus Montero as the Mariners have given him the opportunity to take over the catching position.  Montero’s stats as a catcher were a lot better than as a DH in 2012. 

BENCH: It will be interesting to see if Yonder Alonso can benefit from the fences being moved in at San Diego.  He had a good, late-season run in 2012.  As long as Michael Cuddyer plays in Colorado, he will continue to find a place on a fantasy team.  I don’t see Denard Span being utilize too often on this team.

PITCHING

Like: Madison Bumgarner (see 2013 projections below) might be the best pitcher on the Giants.  He won’t be doing it by himself either as the Red Sox are loaded with pitchers: Edwin Jackson, Jon Lester, Kris Medlen, Ian Kennedy, Hisashi Iwakuma.

Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/A
Madison Bumgarner	San Francisco	4.04	8.35	2.07	8.18	1.14	0.82

Dislike: Not a fan of Clay Buchholz as he’s been a disappointment since the BoSox have given him a regular spot in the rotation after many years of being hyped as a highly-touted prospect. 

Look Out For: There’s a few candidates at this spot: Matt Garza, when he comes back from injury, gives the Bourbons incredible depth in the rotation.  Minor Leaguers Danny Hultzen and Kevin Gausman are very likely to be called up later in 2013, but Hultzen is more likely to step into his team’s starting rotation and flourish than Gausman.

BULLPEN: As opposed to years past, the Bourbons didn’t go after a lot of relievers.  They did pick up Jonathan Papelbon who is a top-tier closer.

PREDICTION: The pitching is incredibly loaded and might be good enough to carry the club to another championship.  What’s stopping this team from a sure spot in the playoffs in their infield, sans Fielder.  Nevertheless, they have an OF that should prove to be consistent throughout the year.  Whether they can make up for the short falls from their impatient teammates is yet to be seen.  

More fantasy baseball content is available here. 

CATCH!: 2013 Early Pre-Rankings--RF

Joey Bats!
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos)

Felipe M

CF pre-rankings are available here.

GREEN = on my keeper team. 

TOP TIER

1. Jose Bautista: There is concern that the wrist surgery he sustained last season might have affected his power, but he's still projected to attain these ridiculous numbers.  He's hitting in a better lineup so that should equal more RBI opportunities.  He's supposed to reach an OPS of .948 per ESPN. Plus wrist injury or not, his BB:K should remain one of the best in the games.
2. Justin Upton: He's ranked very high on many "experts'" list at this position, but it's his projected OPS that we calculated (.820) that drops him down to this spot.  He still remains a very attractive option in traditional Roto-leagues where his speed/power combo can potentially net a 25/25 season or even more if he can cut back on his whiffs.
3. Giancarlo Stanton: This guy is all power!  We project him at a .955 OPS and he's supposed to hit a homerun in every 12.45 official at bats.  However, he needs to be more patient at the plate before we move him to the top spot.
4. Jason Heyward: The way I see it, Heyward is Upton's clone.  The difference is that Justin Upton has the potential to exceed his counting stats' projections plus Upton has a slightly better on-base% and a bit more patient than Heyward (doesn't say much, but we're talking about a "game of inches.")  Heyward is a solid 25/20 guy.
5. Ben Zobrist: We've marveled about Zobrist's game throughout the preseason: the versatility  the patience at the plate, the good power/speed combo.  He's a very steady player and a solid pick in any league.

SECOND TIER

6. Jay Bruce: There's only reason why you would pick this guy: POWER!  He'll most likely hurt Roto-leaguers' batting average and in points' leagues, the strikeouts will drive you nuts, but keep in mind that he can reach a respectable on-base% of .343.  35 homers and .858 OPS still makes Bruce a great source of power.
7. Bryce Harper: Harper will show that he can hang permanently in the big leagues as he enters his second season.  He's still learning the big league game, but can still be a 25/25 guy.  
8. Allen Craig: .850 OPS is what makes Craig worth a risk despite a history of injuries.  He stayed healthy last season and produced big time numbers.  Impatience at the plate is made up by a solid contact rate that has many thinking that he can flirt with a .300 batting average again. 
9. Shin-Soo Choo: If he stays healthy and can supply a bit more power, Choo could be a 20/20 player.  His power has sort of dip as he's projected to hit one home run in every 30.8 at bats and SLG% of .441.  Nevertheless, he's supposed to be a line-drive hitter anyway.  If he can maintain a high rate of line drives, Choo can be a steal at the RF position.

THIRD TIER

The rest of the field:

• Mark Trumbo (Power is the name of his game, but he'll drive you crazy in other categories).
• Hunter Pence (Solid power and a solid contact provides a solid batting average)
• Andre Ethier (.814 OPS makes him someone to look out for in drafts)
• Carlos Beltran (injury and age concerns. Miserable 2nd half, but might be worth the risk for the right price as he's projected to get an OPS of .868, per ESPN)
• Nelson Cruz (Can provide adequate power, but on-base% is terrible)
• Nick Swisher (new team, but should still reach close to 25 homers and and OPS of .800+. He's projected to strikeout more this season, however).
• Chris Davis (I really don't like this guy, but there's always room in fantasy baseball for guys who can hit 30 home runs on any given season. If you can't stomach the strikeouts and low on-base% (like yours truly), then feel free to pass on this guy)
• Nick Markakis (His counting stats won't "wow!" anyone, but his patience and great on-base% makes him relevant in fantasy circles)
• Torii Hunter (20 homers and a .780+ OPS might make him a useful RF in most leagues)

Keep an eye on: 

• Wil Myers (Baseball America's #1 Prospect. Just a matter of when?)
• Norichika Aoki (A pesky hitter who can drive pitchers crazy. His speed can net him 20+ steals.  Not much on power, however).
• Corey Hart (He will be recovering from knee surgery and won't be ready until May.  Players who aren't expected to be healthy by Opening Day are usually not worth drafting, but this guy might be an exception, especially if you can afford to keep him on Injured Reserve or if you have great depth already.  25 homers and .835 OPS can still help many teams, no matter the fantasy format).

More MLB content is available here.

To look back on Jay Bruce during his rookie year, check out this website!

CATCH!: 2013 Early Pre-Rankings--CF

How far down will Curtis Granderson drop on this list?

Felipe M

LF pre-rankings are available here. 

GREEN = on my keeper team.

TOP TIER

1. Andrew McCutchen: The time is now for "Cutch" to take over the top spot at CF after waiting patiently for his turn to arrive.  I don't even have to explain myself on this one.  With respect to Mike Trout's raw abilities and skills, McCutchen, at this stage of his career, is the more complete hitter and, therefore, occupies this year's top spot at center.  

2. Matt Kemp: With all due respect to Trout, it's hard to ignore a guy who is projected to produce an OPS of .907 (per ESPN).  By comparison, Trout is projected by the worldwide leader to obtain an OPS of .823.  

3. Mike Trout: There he is!  This year, Trout is projected to produce an OPS of, on average, .871.  He's also needs to work on his approach at the plate.  Perhaps if I were solely just concentrating on Roto-style ball, I would consider putting Trout at #1 (27 homers/48 steals), but I have to consider his unpolished discipline at the plate for the players who have to take strikeouts and on-base% into effect.  "Cutch" and Kemp are projected to have a higher on-base% for 2013.  

4. Josh Hamilton: Projected to have better power production than Trout, Hamilton is even less disciplined at the plate than Trout and also comes with plenty of baggage (injuries, off-the-field issues, etc.).  However, new team with established stars on the club should make him a happier, even more productive hitter. 

SECOND TIER

5. Bryce Harper: Could possibly be a 25/25 guy, but, like Trout, he needs to improve his discipline at the plate.  Harper is still developing his game despite making an All-Star appearance and winning Rookie of the Year honors.  That's a scary thought to have a player that's established like Harper, yet is still in the process of improving to greater heights.  

6. Adam Jones: I gave up on Jones a long time ago.  Even as his power finally developed as promised, it's hard to ignore his terrible discipline at the plate.  However, his adequate contact rate helps him get on base and provide a very heatlhy batting average.  He'll also throw in 15 stolen bases.

Yoenis Cespedes turned out to be as good as advertised.

7. Yoenis Cespedes: I attempted to draft Cespedes in the draft last year, but he went one spot ahead of me in the 6th round (which really is the 13th round in our league after taking into account the 7 keepers one must keep).  He can easily be a 25/25 player at his best in 2013 and his adequate contact rate keeps him at a steady batting average.  If he can imrpove on his discipline, he can easily be an elite player at his position. 

8. Jacoby Ellsbury: He can easily be an elite player with his speed/power combo, but injuries have forced owners to look elsewhere for healthier alternatives.  ESPN is calling his injuries "fluky," but a player that plays hard like Ellsbury needs to understand how to pace himself as well.  There's a thin line between being a "hustling" player and being "Eric Byrnes"--a guy who just goes at full speed just for the sake of showing his manager that he can go full speed at all times.  Ellsbury is not a scrub like Byrnes.  But he does need to be healthy to produce and be on the field to produce the monster numbers that we know he can attain.  

9. Curtis Granderson: I was ready to relegate Granderson into THIRD TIER status, but it's very hard to drop him out of the top 10 at the position.  I despise the fact that he has terrible plate discipline and strikeout totals, but sometimes those counting stats are so impressive, that all other stats that gauge a player's contact/hit, and patience can be thrown out the window.  As long as Granderson plays at Yankee Stadium, we can forgive him for being a quasi-all-or-nothing hitter.  He is projected to miss the enitre month of May.

10. B.J. Upton: And then there's the overrated Upton.  The counting stats are great, but even Roto players will be pulling their hair at his awful batting average.  His low contact rate, poor discipline, and laughable on-base% would make him practically useless in Head-2-Head/Points' leagues if it wasn't for the fact that his 30/30 capabilities can provide for an explosive outburst of production from time to time.  

THIRD TIER

The rest of the field: 

• Austin Jackson (with a terrible approach at the plate and a high strikeout rate, how he is able to project to have a .348 on-base% is beyond me)
• Desmond Jennings (still needs to figure it out at the plate, but when he gets on base, he can fly)
• Alejandro De Aza (adequate contact rate and can actually get on-base and provide 25+ stolen bases and 10+ homeruns).
• Angel Pagan (modest on-base% is made up by good discipline and contact rate. Can get you 30 stolen bases)
• Shane Victorino (age and decrease in production is a concern, but still a solid play with a projected respectable on-base% of .337 and 28 steals).
• Dexter Fowler (potential 15/15 player, but very impatient at the plate. Projected OPS of .812 is not too shabby though)
• Michael Bourn (adequate contact rate will help him achieve projection of 45 stolen bases)
• Carlos Gomez (15/30 player, but terrible on-base skills will hurt in both Roto and Points' leagues alike)
• Coco Crisp (decent patience and contact skills will should mean an improved batting average and on-base% alike. Power seems to be waning, but is still a good source of steals)

Keep an eye on:

• Adam Eaton (Until I see that he has "officially" won a starting spot, I'm not moving him from this spot).
• Ben Revere (can rack up the steals, and contact rate plus speed makes him a tough out despite low on-base%)
• Drew Stubbs (Roto leagues only)

All photos courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos.

More MLB content is available here.

2012 MLB PROSPECT REVIEW: Top 5

Bryce Harper had a heck of a 2012 season.

Felipe M

5. Trevor Bauer--SP--Cleveland Indians

• 2012 Outlook: "Compared to Tim Lincecum.  Best of the D'backs' prospects."
• 2012 Accomplishments: #3 in Pacific Coast League and the league's best pitcher.
• Conclusion: Aside from a 4.2 BB/9, Bauer absolutely dominated in the Minors in 2012.  He did pitch for the Big League club, but was playing hurt in his time with the D'backs.  Unfortunately for Arizona, conflict between the young pitcher and the entire organization forced the D'backs to ship him to Cleveland for a bushel of balls, a 2-year supply of hot dogs, and a high volume of the freshest Lake Erie water.  People are going to get fired in Arizona because of this trade.  However, management wanted to get rid of this promising prospect, but the real "snake bite" come from the fact that they really didn't get fair value for this player and that's very unfortunate.  At least they were able to get solid players in the Justin Upton deal.  Currently, Bauer is competing for the #5 spot in the Indians' rotation.  

4. Julio Teheran--SP--Atlanta Braves

• 2012 Outlook: "Compared to Pedro Martinez; best of the Braves' pitching prospects."
• 2012 Accomplishments: #1 Prospect in Braves' organization and possesses Best Changeup in the system; #4 Prospect in International League. 
• Conclusion: Struggled mightily in the Minors last season, but many pundits are blaming the organization for trying to change his delivery.  Reports out of spring training are that Teheran has returned to his old delivery and is pitching with extreme confidence.  He is currently competing for a rotation spot. 

3. Jesus Montero--C--Seattle Mariners

A young Jesus Montero readying himself with that lumber.

• 2012 Outlook: "Will mainly DH for the Mariners.  Can hit for power and average."
• 2012 Accomplishments: Played 135 games for the Mariners in 2012, but only 56 games at catcher.
• Conclusion: One of the many players that were linked to the recent BioGenesis scandal adds to Montero's problems, mainly his defensive duties at the catching position and how will he exactly bounce back from a disastrous 2012 (.260/.298/.389 BB:K .29).  His last season at Triple-A shows what Montero is capable of: .289/.351/.493/.843 BB:K .43.  That potential has management salivating at things to come and opted to hand him the keys to the #1 catching spot as they got rid of any potential competition that might get in his way this season. 

2. Bryce Harper--OF--Washington Nationals

• 2012 Outlook: "At 19, he's the best prospect in baseball.  Will get called up in 2012."
• 2012 Accomplishments: NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR and All-Star
• Conclusion: Now 20, Harper is slated to start in LF for the Nationals.  What's very impressive about Harper is that not only did he succeed as a teengager in his first season in the Majors, but that he showed no indication that he was ready for the Big Leagues in the Minors.  He struggled in Double and Triple-A posting mediocre batting average, low on-base%, and displaying absolutely no power.  His patience at the plate did improve so there might have been hope for him in that aspect.  He put on more weight to endure a full season in the Majors and, obviously, to hit for more power and improve on his .817 OPS from last season.

It might be the worst ballpark,
but it will be home to a lot of
young, promising players.

1. Matt Moore--SP--Tampa Rays

• 2012 Outlook: "Might be better than Stephen Strasburg."
• 2012 Accomplishments: Pitched 177.1 innings for the Rays. 
• Conclusion: After dominating and destroying everything in his path in Double and Triple-A, Moore's 2012 was sort of ordinary: WHIP 1.35; H/9 8.0; HR/9 0.9; BB/9 4.1; K/9 8.9.  He did find his rhythm in the 2nd half of the season so that's a good sign; that and his high strikeout rate.  Moore is very likely to break camp as the Rays' #3 starter.  

 More MLB content is available here. 

The rest of the prospects can be found here.

All pictures courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos.