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Showing posts with label John Lannan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John Lannan. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

HIRED ARMS: Like a Phoenix Ignition

Felipe M

We previously talked about struggling pitchers that are worth monitoring as they may still turn their seasons around. 

We now take a look at the pitchers that have skyrocketed up the waiver wire charts.  The following pitchers are owned in less than 50% of CBS fantasy baseball leagues and all saw at least a 5% increase in ownership in the last week.

Besides evaluating these pitchers, we try to figure out if their recent hype is warranted or overblown.

Patrick Corbin--Arizona Diamondbacks--42%: Corbin was a pitcher I was excited about in the spring as he pitched marvelously, en route to securing the final rotation spot in Arizona.  He's pitched well enough to win and has yet to give up a homerun, but his 1.25 WHIP and his six strikeouts in 12 innings pitched makes me think that his 2-0 win-loss record is more fluke than skill.  Corbin is more of a groundball pitcher, telling me he needs a lot of contact from opposing hitters (and a lot of luck) to be an effective pitcher.  However, his groundout-to-flyout ratio is only 1.3 so far.  His H/9 of 8.25 shows that he's been more lucky than good this season.  Good short-term pitcher to have while he's hot, but I would cut bait at the first sign of struggle.  Then again, I wouldn't have him on my team to begin with.  

Andrew Bailey--Boston Red Sox--41%: So apparently, Boston needs a new closer.  Current closer Joel Hanrahan is on the DL and Bailey should be the team's primary closer in his absence.  He did blow a save on Monday, but has pitched pretty well this season, posting a K/9 of 15.28.  Bailey has accumulated 81 saves in his career, so he has the experience.  Go pick him up now!

Carlos Villanueva--Chicago Cubs--32%: We've mentioned before how Villanueva can be a sneaky pitcher to slot into your rotation.  Well, he's pitched well enough to be 2-0 this season, but lack of run support has been his doom.  The strikeouts aren't as high as I'd like, but all other stats are tantalizing owners to pick him up immediately.  The downside to him is that his role with the Cubs seems to be temporary and he is a flyball pitcher that struggled with keeping the ball in the park last season.  However, he's pitched well enough to warrant a roster spot on fantasy teams and is worth keeping around until the Cubs say otherwise.

Nick Tepesch--Texas Rangers--27%: He's had mixed results in his two starts this season, but has been a pleasant surprise in terms of K/BB.  Unfortunately, he's been tagged with a base-hit per inning, thus far.  However, the silver lining is that his groundout/flyout ratio is near 4:1.  As long as he can induce plenty of groundballs, doesn't hurt himself with walks, and continues to keep up his strikeout rate, he should be fine.  

Chris Capuano--Los Angeles Dodgers--26%: Summoned from the bullpen to take over for Zack Greinke, who is out with a collarbone injury, Capuano is not a bad selection if you're in desperate need for a starting pitcher.  He had a decent 2012 and has pitched pretty well in relief this season.  Last year, he had a K/BB of 3/1.  Age, a short leash (Ted Lilly waits in the bullpen in the event that Capuano struggles), and limited work are the negatives, but in the interim, he's a solid choice to add to your roster.  

Bartolo Colon--Oakland A's--19%: He's pitched pretty well since coming back from PED suspension.  He hasn't been dominant, but has definitely relied on veteran moxie.  Strikeout totals are low and he's giving up a lot of base-hits, but has yet to allow a walk and that kind of control is always a major advantage.  He's recorded more flyouts than groundouts and playing in Oakland, he can afford to have hitters put the ball in the air, although he's already given up two homeruns this season.  Colon is not my first choice to plug into my pitching staff, but as a last resort option, you could do a lot worse.  However, age and a tough, upcoming schedule--is scheduled to pitch against Budd Norris and Jon Lester--would make me not want to pick him up.

John Lannan--Philadelphia Phillies--11%: As mentioned before, I'm the biggest "Lannan-hater" out there.  He is the epitome of a pitcher I refuse to have on my team.  However, to his credit, he's pitched well enough to win both of his starts this season as he's only given up one walk and has only allowed 8 hits, but has been a victim of poor run-support.  The low strikeouts is typical of Lannan, but his finesse style has been on full display early on as he holds a 3:1, groundout:flyout ratio.  The negative on Lannan: he's John Lannan.  His 2013 start just reeks of fluky luck and it seems that he's performance is a product of an easy schedule (facing the Royals in his first start and then the Marlins in his second start).  His next couple of starts should prove to be a bit more challenging as he'll pitch against the Reds and against the Pirates with A.J. Burnett scheduled to make the start opposite Lannan. 

So that's a quick look at a few pitchers that have filled the fantasy baseball world with a lot of buzz recently.  A lot of these guys are short-term solutions, but sometimes going with the hot hand is the best choice.  

More MLB content is available here.  

Thursday, April 4, 2013

MAKING THE PITCH: Philadelphia Phillies

Felipe M

Even though the season has started, it's still early enough to take a quick look at the rest of the pitching staffs.


We left off reviewing the Pittsburgh Pirates.  

The Philadelphia Phillies are equipped with arguably the best 1-2-3 combo in all of baseball.  

2013 Pitching Projections
Player
Team
K/BB
K/9
BB/9
H/9
WHIP
HR/9
Cliff Lee
Philadelphia
6.94
8.76
1.26
8.23
1.05
0.90
Roy Halladay
Philadelphia
5.18
7.84
1.51
8.47
1.11
0.89
Cole Hamels
Philadelphia
4.06
8.83
2.18
7.85
1.11
0.98
Kyle Kendrick
Philadelphia
2.16
5.75
2.66
9.48
1.35
0.96
Jonathan Papelbon
Philadelphia
4.25
11.25
2.65
7.41
1.12
0.93












Kyle Kendrick seemed to have received a lot of attention this offseason as he saw his strikeout totals go up in 2012.  He even left spring training with a K/BB of 12/3, but still got lit up for a high ERA of 6.88.  However, Kendrick's game is all about control and pitching-to-contact as his projected WHIP of 1.35 is more of a reality than the 1.28 he posted last season.  I would keep an eye on him just to see if his improvement from last season is legit or a fluke. There's a reason why he's still available in 80% of CBS leagues.  

Jonathan Papelbon is clearly one of the best closers in baseball.  The only knock on him is that saves might be hard to come by as the team is loaded with starters that can eat up the innings, costing Papelbon a few save chances, but that's just me nit-picking, obviously. 

John Lannan is listed as the 5th starter.  I don't like him, never did like, and never will like him.  However, my curiosity as to why this guy continues to be given chances to pitch in the Big Leagues has been piqued.  So upon further review, after making all the calculations and reading all the reports, here's what I found out: Lannan did have a solid spring, but gave up 12 runs in 4 innings in his last exhibition start; He had a mediocre year with the Nationals in 2012, but did finish with a 4-1 record and based on what we know about GM, Ruben Amaro, that's good enough for him because that's how he defines "production."; Plus he did have a FIP of 3.17 which isn't so bad, but he has a career K/BB of 1.39.  Please don't make the mistake of giving this guy a chance on your team.  

 I don't think I have to explain myself on Cliff Lee.  His 2012 season was such a major fluke, but was still able to post good strikeout totals and even improved his BB/9.  

The same thing goes for Cole Hamels.  Albeit, he did struggle against the Braves on opening night, but he is coming off a successful 2012 campaign and spring training.  He'll be fine.

I didn't think I had to explain myself on Roy Halladay, but there were whispers of doubt in the offseason, but I didn't think they deserved my attention.  And then, today, sports pundits from everywhere are acting like a bunch of Chicken Littles after one start from Halladay.  What's wrong?  He's coming off a sub-par, by his standards, 2012 season.  Injuries limited him to only 25 starts last year.  Nevertheless, he still had good strikeout totals and did a great job in limiting his walks.  He did give up a lot of hits which raised his WHIP to 1.22, but the last time he had a WHIP that high, 2007, he won 16 games for the Blue Jays and still did a great job in limiting his walks.  He did, however, have low strikeouts and a high hit rate.  He also had a H/9 of 8.94 in 2012, the first time he's given up that many base-hits since 2009.  So perhaps 2012 was just an isolated incident and injuries might have played a bigger role than anticipated, right? 

Well, what the numbers don't tell us is that in 2012, there were reports of decrease in velocity in his fastball.  Like I explained though, there were small murmurs throughout the spring that got louder and louder until his opening day start to the season yesterday where he got lit up by the Braves.  Here's a quick timeline:

  • February 13, 2013: Halladay declares that he's healthy entering spring training.  He credits a new, offseason workout regiment that focuses "on movements to build strength and flexibility in his lower back and core."
  • Feb 19: Halladay throws live Batting Practice and according to witnesses, he looked impressive.  Even new teammate, Michael Young stated that he looked like the pitcher he used to face when Halladay was still a Blue Jay.
  • Feb 24: Halladay throws 22 pitches, gives up one homerun, but doesn't allow a baserunner against the Tigers.  One scout did report clocking his velocity between 89-91 mph
  • March 1: Strong performance against the Yankees. 
  • March 6: Dominated the Nationals. 
  • March 12: Rocked against the Detroit Tigers
  • March 13: Pitching coach, Rich Dubee reminds fans and media that "Halladay is healthy this season."
  • March 17: Leaves game after one inning because of stomach virus.
  • March 18: During a bullpen session, Halladay is only able to top his fastball at 87 mph
  • March 19: Still recovering from a stomach virus. Lost 10 pounds because of illness
  • March 23: Has a terrible game against Triple-A hitters.  Can only top 90 mph once!
  • March 28: Another poor outing and once again, his fastball reaches 88-91.
  • April 3: Throws 95 pitches, 40 in the 1st inning, ends up only completing 3 1/3 innings. He strikes out 9, walks 3, and gives up 2 homeruns.  
    • Becomes first pitcher to get 9 K's, but only record 10 or less outs in MLB history.
    • Halladay states that he will fix problems.
During all this time, Halladay and coach Dubee were constantly working together throughout the spring to try and figure out how to improve his mechanics and such.  The Phillies also said that they weren't concerned with Halladay.  Halladay himself stated that he would be ready for his first start of the year.

Personally, I would give the benefit of the doubt to Halladay.  The team was high on him to begin the year and although he has been getting rocked, overcoming stomach issues is a difficult endeavor.  And even though his fastball is down, it's like opposing hitter Jason Heyward says, "he has a lot of weapons" in his pitching repertoire.  He was able to strikeout 9 hitters so that has to be a good sign.  I'm optimistic that he will be able to get around a dwindling fastball and focus more on location instead of trying to blow by everybody with his fastball.  And as mentioned before, Halladay wasn't always known as a strikeout artist as evident by his 2004-2007 seasons in Toronto.  Might take some time to make the adjustment, but if anybody can adjust, it's Halladay.  He's done it before.

The pessimist would point out the terrible command and the ineffectiveness of his fastball and secondary pitches, as well as his struggles in the 2nd half of the spring.  The low velocity might mark the beginning of the end of the 35 year-old Halladay.  

Nevertheless, it's sort of odd to see a pitcher like Halladay just suddenly see his production and ability go up in smoke so quickly.  I would practice patience with a guy like him, no doubt.  Would I activate him for his next start?  No, I would let him sit on the bench and let him figure it out there.  But one start doesn't predict an entire season.  Perhaps, after a few more starts (4 or 5 seems about right) would be a reasonable timetable to reevaluate him.