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Showing posts with label Jonathan Papelbon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jonathan Papelbon. Show all posts

Thursday, April 4, 2013

MAKING THE PITCH: Philadelphia Phillies

Felipe M

Even though the season has started, it's still early enough to take a quick look at the rest of the pitching staffs.


We left off reviewing the Pittsburgh Pirates.  

The Philadelphia Phillies are equipped with arguably the best 1-2-3 combo in all of baseball.  

2013 Pitching Projections
Player
Team
K/BB
K/9
BB/9
H/9
WHIP
HR/9
Cliff Lee
Philadelphia
6.94
8.76
1.26
8.23
1.05
0.90
Roy Halladay
Philadelphia
5.18
7.84
1.51
8.47
1.11
0.89
Cole Hamels
Philadelphia
4.06
8.83
2.18
7.85
1.11
0.98
Kyle Kendrick
Philadelphia
2.16
5.75
2.66
9.48
1.35
0.96
Jonathan Papelbon
Philadelphia
4.25
11.25
2.65
7.41
1.12
0.93












Kyle Kendrick seemed to have received a lot of attention this offseason as he saw his strikeout totals go up in 2012.  He even left spring training with a K/BB of 12/3, but still got lit up for a high ERA of 6.88.  However, Kendrick's game is all about control and pitching-to-contact as his projected WHIP of 1.35 is more of a reality than the 1.28 he posted last season.  I would keep an eye on him just to see if his improvement from last season is legit or a fluke. There's a reason why he's still available in 80% of CBS leagues.  

Jonathan Papelbon is clearly one of the best closers in baseball.  The only knock on him is that saves might be hard to come by as the team is loaded with starters that can eat up the innings, costing Papelbon a few save chances, but that's just me nit-picking, obviously. 

John Lannan is listed as the 5th starter.  I don't like him, never did like, and never will like him.  However, my curiosity as to why this guy continues to be given chances to pitch in the Big Leagues has been piqued.  So upon further review, after making all the calculations and reading all the reports, here's what I found out: Lannan did have a solid spring, but gave up 12 runs in 4 innings in his last exhibition start; He had a mediocre year with the Nationals in 2012, but did finish with a 4-1 record and based on what we know about GM, Ruben Amaro, that's good enough for him because that's how he defines "production."; Plus he did have a FIP of 3.17 which isn't so bad, but he has a career K/BB of 1.39.  Please don't make the mistake of giving this guy a chance on your team.  

 I don't think I have to explain myself on Cliff Lee.  His 2012 season was such a major fluke, but was still able to post good strikeout totals and even improved his BB/9.  

The same thing goes for Cole Hamels.  Albeit, he did struggle against the Braves on opening night, but he is coming off a successful 2012 campaign and spring training.  He'll be fine.

I didn't think I had to explain myself on Roy Halladay, but there were whispers of doubt in the offseason, but I didn't think they deserved my attention.  And then, today, sports pundits from everywhere are acting like a bunch of Chicken Littles after one start from Halladay.  What's wrong?  He's coming off a sub-par, by his standards, 2012 season.  Injuries limited him to only 25 starts last year.  Nevertheless, he still had good strikeout totals and did a great job in limiting his walks.  He did give up a lot of hits which raised his WHIP to 1.22, but the last time he had a WHIP that high, 2007, he won 16 games for the Blue Jays and still did a great job in limiting his walks.  He did, however, have low strikeouts and a high hit rate.  He also had a H/9 of 8.94 in 2012, the first time he's given up that many base-hits since 2009.  So perhaps 2012 was just an isolated incident and injuries might have played a bigger role than anticipated, right? 

Well, what the numbers don't tell us is that in 2012, there were reports of decrease in velocity in his fastball.  Like I explained though, there were small murmurs throughout the spring that got louder and louder until his opening day start to the season yesterday where he got lit up by the Braves.  Here's a quick timeline:

  • February 13, 2013: Halladay declares that he's healthy entering spring training.  He credits a new, offseason workout regiment that focuses "on movements to build strength and flexibility in his lower back and core."
  • Feb 19: Halladay throws live Batting Practice and according to witnesses, he looked impressive.  Even new teammate, Michael Young stated that he looked like the pitcher he used to face when Halladay was still a Blue Jay.
  • Feb 24: Halladay throws 22 pitches, gives up one homerun, but doesn't allow a baserunner against the Tigers.  One scout did report clocking his velocity between 89-91 mph
  • March 1: Strong performance against the Yankees. 
  • March 6: Dominated the Nationals. 
  • March 12: Rocked against the Detroit Tigers
  • March 13: Pitching coach, Rich Dubee reminds fans and media that "Halladay is healthy this season."
  • March 17: Leaves game after one inning because of stomach virus.
  • March 18: During a bullpen session, Halladay is only able to top his fastball at 87 mph
  • March 19: Still recovering from a stomach virus. Lost 10 pounds because of illness
  • March 23: Has a terrible game against Triple-A hitters.  Can only top 90 mph once!
  • March 28: Another poor outing and once again, his fastball reaches 88-91.
  • April 3: Throws 95 pitches, 40 in the 1st inning, ends up only completing 3 1/3 innings. He strikes out 9, walks 3, and gives up 2 homeruns.  
    • Becomes first pitcher to get 9 K's, but only record 10 or less outs in MLB history.
    • Halladay states that he will fix problems.
During all this time, Halladay and coach Dubee were constantly working together throughout the spring to try and figure out how to improve his mechanics and such.  The Phillies also said that they weren't concerned with Halladay.  Halladay himself stated that he would be ready for his first start of the year.

Personally, I would give the benefit of the doubt to Halladay.  The team was high on him to begin the year and although he has been getting rocked, overcoming stomach issues is a difficult endeavor.  And even though his fastball is down, it's like opposing hitter Jason Heyward says, "he has a lot of weapons" in his pitching repertoire.  He was able to strikeout 9 hitters so that has to be a good sign.  I'm optimistic that he will be able to get around a dwindling fastball and focus more on location instead of trying to blow by everybody with his fastball.  And as mentioned before, Halladay wasn't always known as a strikeout artist as evident by his 2004-2007 seasons in Toronto.  Might take some time to make the adjustment, but if anybody can adjust, it's Halladay.  He's done it before.

The pessimist would point out the terrible command and the ineffectiveness of his fastball and secondary pitches, as well as his struggles in the 2nd half of the spring.  The low velocity might mark the beginning of the end of the 35 year-old Halladay.  

Nevertheless, it's sort of odd to see a pitcher like Halladay just suddenly see his production and ability go up in smoke so quickly.  I would practice patience with a guy like him, no doubt.  Would I activate him for his next start?  No, I would let him sit on the bench and let him figure it out there.  But one start doesn't predict an entire season.  Perhaps, after a few more starts (4 or 5 seems about right) would be a reasonable timetable to reevaluate him.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

MARDI GRAS MADNESS: Bourbon St Red Sox


Felipe M

As explained in the last article, I'll be posting my fantasy baseball keeper league predictions on this website.  


I posted predictions for the Co-Commissioner's team, the Castroville Crushers.  No we take a look at the other Co-Commissioner's team.

WEST DIVISION—BOURBON ST RED SOX (out of New Orleans, LA)

BATTING LINEUP

Like: Prince Fielder proved that there was no ballpark big enough to deny his power.  Looking for a bounce-back season from Jacoby Ellsbury as well.  The future of this team is Bryce Harper whom is still improving on his skills and still young enough to post bigger numbers—this after coming off an All-Star season in 2012.  I also like Norichika Aoki: what he lacks in power, he makes up in a very patient approach at the plate and is a speedy baserunner with 30+ steals appeal.

2013 Hitting Projections
Player
Team
BB/K
AB/K
AB/HR
OBP
SLG
OPS
SB
Jacoby Ellsbury
Boston
0.50
7.00
33.39
0.343
0.454
0.798
27
Prince Fielder
Detroit
0.97
5.73
17.55
0.417
0.533
0.950
1
 
Dislike: Big-cut swingers Rickie Weeks, Mike Moustakas, and J.J. Hardy; projected to combine for 353 strikeouts (118 a piece).  And that’s not mentioning Adam Dunn’s strikeout totals as his career is dipping rapidly.  Obviously, his appeal is in his power, but should not belong on any fantasy team, at least not this early in the season.

Look Out For: Jesus Montero as the Mariners have given him the opportunity to take over the catching position.  Montero’s stats as a catcher were a lot better than as a DH in 2012. 

BENCH: It will be interesting to see if Yonder Alonso can benefit from the fences being moved in at San Diego.  He had a good, late-season run in 2012.  As long as Michael Cuddyer plays in Colorado, he will continue to find a place on a fantasy team.  I don’t see Denard Span being utilize too often on this team.

PITCHING

Like: Madison Bumgarner (see 2013 projections below) might be the best pitcher on the Giants.  He won’t be doing it by himself either as the Red Sox are loaded with pitchers: Edwin Jackson, Jon Lester, Kris Medlen, Ian Kennedy, Hisashi Iwakuma.

Player
Team
K/BB
K/9
BB/9
H/9
WHIP
HR/A
Madison Bumgarner
San Francisco
4.04
8.35
2.07
8.18
1.14
0.82

Dislike: Not a fan of Clay Buchholz as he’s been a disappointment since the BoSox have given him a regular spot in the rotation after many years of being hyped as a highly-touted prospect. 

Look Out For: There’s a few candidates at this spot: Matt Garza, when he comes back from injury, gives the Bourbons incredible depth in the rotation.  Minor Leaguers Danny Hultzen and Kevin Gausman are very likely to be called up later in 2013, but Hultzen is more likely to step into his team’s starting rotation and flourish than Gausman.

BULLPEN: As opposed to years past, the Bourbons didn’t go after a lot of relievers.  They did pick up Jonathan Papelbon who is a top-tier closer.

PREDICTION: The pitching is incredibly loaded and might be good enough to carry the club to another championship.  What’s stopping this team from a sure spot in the playoffs in their infield, sans Fielder.  Nevertheless, they have an OF that should prove to be consistent throughout the year.  Whether they can make up for the short falls from their impatient teammates is yet to be seen.