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Showing posts with label Shelby Miller. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Shelby Miller. Show all posts

Friday, March 29, 2013

MAKING THE PITCH: St. Louis Cardinals

Felipe M

We take a look at the projected starting rotations and closer situations of every MLB team.  Of course, this will come from a fantasy perspective.  All cited stats are based on 2013 projections. 

Our preview of the Chicago White Sox can be read here

Let's see what the St. Louis Cardinals have in store for the upcoming season.

2013 Pitching Projections
Player
Team
K/BB
K/9
BB/9
H/9
WHIP
HR/9
Adam Wainwright
St. Louis
3.65
8.17
2.24
8.29
1.17
0.71
Jaime Garcia
St. Louis
2.95
7.01
2.37
9.16
1.28
0.59
Lance Lynn
St. Louis
2.92
8.75
3.00
8.16
1.24
0.89
Shelby Miller
St. Louis
2.48
8.57
3.46
8.31
1.31
1.04
Jake Westbrook
St. Louis
1.77
5.24
2.95
9.43
1.38
0.67












As you can see, this list doesn't include Chris Carpenter, their closers, Joe Kelly or #3 Baseball Prospectus Cardinals' prospect, Carlos Martinez.  In a word, the Cards are LOADED at this position.  

Adam Wainwright is so good, he just received a 5-year contract extension.  If the Cards have faith in him and the numbers suggest a top-of-the-line pitcher, then you, the reader, should have faith in him.  I listed Wainwright as a top 10 pitcher for 2013.

I'm always down on Jaime Garcia because I've always viewed him as a typical, finesse, Cardinals pitcher.  But based on his decent K/9 and close to 3/1 K/BB ratio, he is a very useful pitcher in fantasy circles.  A 1.28 WHIP is elevated due to his pitching style, which ultimately gives up a lot of base-hits, but judging by his successful spring, he should be on every fantasy team right now.  Nonetheless, he's at least available in 15% of CBS leagues.  

Lance Lynn got off to a rocking start last season, but eventually malfunctioned as a starter and was demoted to the bullpen.  Based on his numbers, he should dominate hitters, but once I was comfortable enough to place him as a 2nd-tier pitcher, reports out of spring training show that he's been terrible.  Furthermore, he's lost weight and has changed his mechanics.  So when considering that transformation, it is skeptical that he can attain those projections, but even if his strikeouts drop to Jaime Garcia-levels, Lynn is still a good option to have on your pitching staff, just not good enough for owners to reach early for him.

I've never like Jake Westbrook, but he's found success on a Cardinals' team that embraces his pitching style.  I still would never consider drafting him or having him on my team, but he can eat up innings, control his walks and homeruns, and can get plenty of wins on a really good team.  

Finally! Shelby Miller wins the 5th rotation spot after a tough battle with Joe Kelly.  He did struggle in Triple-A last season, but he's been dominating the Minors beforehand.  Plus, immaturity was an issue last season in the Minors as well, but did enough to impress the Cards late in 2012 and definitely showed enough improvements this spring to have the Cardinals give him the job.  He is available in 28% of CBS leagues so if you need pitching help, Miller is definitely worth the roster spot.  

I've shared my thoughts about Jason Motte and thought he was an elite closer before he went down with an injury.  Obviously, Mitchell Boggs will replace him until Motte comes back.  I believe in the Cardinals' ability to develop pitchers and give them opportunities to succeed so Boggs should be a fine replacement.  He's already notched three saves this spring after manager Mike Matheny named him the closer on March 23rd.  In the meantime, you should handcuff these two together like I did.  

As mentioned, the Cardinals are loaded at this position and if one of these guys fall, I strongly urge to immediately check out the replacement pitchers because they always find a way to find guys who succeed when their number is called.

More MLB content is available here.  

Monday, February 18, 2013

2012 MLB PROSPECT REVIEW: #10-6

The next Miguel Cabrera is somewhere on this list.  But who could it be?
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos). 



Felipe M

10. Miguel Sano--3B--Minnesota Twins
  • 2012 Outlook: "Might not be ready until 2013 and only 18.  Struggles with strikeouts, but might be the next Miguel Cabrera."
  • 2012 Achievements: #1 Minnesota Twins' prospect along with Best Power Hitter and Infield Arm; #2 Midwest League Prospect and Best Infield Arm in league.
  • Conclusion: Interestingly enough, Sano has also been compared to Giancarlo Stanton. Unfortunately, for many Twins' and fantasy fans alike, Sano is probably a long way from contributing in the big leagues.  Also, he needs to improve on his defense as he committed 42 errors at 3B.  Career minor league numbers are impressive, but keep in mind that he has yet to play above Lo-A ball.  He also needs to improve his plate approach (BB:K of .45).  He'll turn 20 in May.
9. Mike Trout--OF--Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Trout might have lost the battle to Cabrera in the MVP
voting, but heated discussions between baseball
traditionalists and "stats' geeks" ensued.
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos). 
  • 2012 Outlook: "A future star.  If one of the regulars goes down, he's probably 1st player to be called up in 2012."
  • 2012 Achievements: AL Rookie of the Year; 2nd place in AL MVP voting.
  • Conclusion: Age and questionable, past prospects in the Angels' organization dropped Trout to #9 on the list.  His impressive Minor League numbers streamlined very well in the Majors last season.  He might be the best player in fantasy baseball this year as well.  Despite not winning the MVP this year, he did gain a lot of high reverence from the SABR community and was picked as the MVP in a lot of advanced, baseball stats' websites.  He is currently penciled in as the Angels' LF in 2013.  
8. Danny Hultzen--SP--Seattle Mariners
  • 2012 Outlook: "Looked sharp in 2011 Arizona Fall League and might help in the Big Leagues, later in 2012."
  • 2012 Achievements: #3 Prospect in Mariners' system.  #4 and #7 Prospect in Souther and Pacific Coast League, respectively.  Best Change Up in Southern League and in Mariners' system.
  • Conclusion: So what do you do to a highly-touted prospect with all the skills and tools in the world? You force him to start his first year of pro ball in Double-A: not Rookie, Lo-A, but Double-A!  Let that sink in for a bit...He dominated Double-A, but struggled once he arrived in Triple-A so he might have to prove himself in the Minors, although there is talks that he might break spring training camp on the Mariners' roster, but all signs point to Hultzen arriving by mid-season, at best.  His Minor League numbers are as followed: WHIP 1.31; H/9 6.3; BB/9 5.4; K/99.9; K/BB 1.81.  
7. Shelby Miller--SP--St. Louis Cardinals
Will Shelby Miller pitch in this ballpark for the duration of
the 2013 season?
(photo courtesy of Felipe M).
  • 2012 Outlook: "Dominated in Minors. Could be called up by mid-season."
  • 2012 Achievements: #6 Prospect in Pacific Coast League. Pitched 6 games for the Cards, making one start.
  • Conclusion: 2012, Triple-A numbers: WHIP 1.38; H/9 9.1; HR/9 1.6; BB/9 3.3; K/9 10.5; K/BB 3.20.  There's talk out of spring training that Miller might make the Cardinals' roster as a relief pitcher, but with the recent injury to Chris Carpenter, Miller might compete for starter role after all.  Should be interesting to see what the Cards do with the young pitcher, either way.  
6. Nolan Arenado--3B--Colorado Rockies
  • 2012 Outlook: "Contact/Power combo, only Casey Blake is in his way.  A future star."
  • 2012 Achievements: #8 in Texas League and League's best defensive 3B; Rockies' Best Defensive Infielder and Infield Arm, and Best Hitter for Average.
  • Conclusion: Arenado struggled a bit last season in Double-A, but finished the campaign strong.  Stats: .285/.337/.428/.766 B:K .67.  Arenado is a longshot to break with the Rockies out of spring training, but is certainly in the mix to compete for the Rockies' 3B position.  Nevertheless, he looks to be a mid-season call up, at best for 2013.