Courtside View: Previewing the 2013-14 Season

  Courtside View: Previewing the 2013-14 Season

The 2013-14 season is just hours away and the reigning champs are looking to start the season. off with a victory against a newly equipped rivalry, in the Chicago Bulls. Following that game on TNT, the Los Angeles Clippers and the Los Angeles Lakers are showcased. I will tell you who is the most dominant team between these two. In the past, I've always said the western conference is the better conference, but with teams like the Indiana Pacers, Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls and the New York Knicks, all upgrading their odds to win a championship to overthrow the defending champs. The west still have dominant teams, but not like the East. This is probably one of the biggest seasons I've been most excited about in awhile. I'll also tell you why the bottom-feeder teams are going to be looking to make their ways up to the top.

Former number one overall pick, Greg Oden, either has ended up broke, or just couldn't walk away from the game without proving himself. One of the biggest busts in NBA history, Oden has returned to the NBA, ready to make an impact with the Miami Heat. The problem with Oden is that he couldn't never stay healthy. He was always hurt. In fact he signed his big contract with the Portland Trailblazers and then said he was hurt. I can just imagine his thoughts..."I can't play now, but I definitely can cash the checks." As if the Heat needed Help, the core of the team is still in tact. With LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh. The Heat will be there at the end, when it is all said and done. If Wade can stay healthy, this team will be more than a handful. Add Ray Allen to the pot and you now have a complete full course dish. However, the Bulls are looking to throw leftovers in that pot. You can't forget about the Bulls...The same team that derailed the Heats 27 game winning streak, and they did it without their prized possession Derrick Rose. Add him to the mix now and this team has a roster, who can outplay anyone in the league. Did I mention they went 8-0 in the pre-season. I know it doesn't count, but it is worth noting.

The Lakers and Clippers play in the same arena. The Staples center has always been home to the five time NBA champ...Kobe Bryant. Things maybe starting to change in favor or the Clippers. This is a team I'm looking forward to seeing. The Clippers are deep and now have a coach who is defensive minded in Doc Rivers. Chris Paul is a great point guard in this league, but Rivers has called out Paul. Letting him know he hasn't done anything in this league. That's one way to push a player to play harder. I can tell you, Rivers has already won that locker room over. If he gets Blake Griffin to commit to playing better defense, no opposing team will be able to score in the low-post. DeAndre Jordan has defense, he just doesn't have offense. He makes nasty looking dunks, he just can't make free throws. Rivers will have to change that, hire a guru or something, but Jordan and Griffin have to be able to make free throws. Who is playing opening night for the Lakers, Steve Nash and Pau Gasol, are the only big names. Kobe Bryant, may be in the building, but he won't be on the court. The 15x all-star is sidelined due to an torn Achilles tendon late last season. It is not known, when he will return. The scale is starting to tilt towards the Clippers side. The team is younger and more talented, while the Lakers are playing, hoping, not to establish injuries along the way.

The eastern conference has gotten better as a whole. The Indiana Pacers are going to welcome their star before their star back in...Danny Granger. Granger missed the majority of the 2012-13 season, due to an patellar injury. Limited to five games last season, Granger is going to miss the first three weeks of this season, due to a calf injury. While he was out, it gave rising star, Paul George, the keys to the team. George is an all-around outstanding player. The former Fresno State product, became an all-star, became the most improved player, and was on the second all-defensive team, thanks to Granger being side-lined. This team isn't worried about missing him. With Roy Hibbert, George Hill, David West and Paul George healthy, this team will be balling-out. They replace Tyler Hannsbrough, with Luis Scola. A more well-rounded player. Scola can score and rebound. That is a great replacement. Other teams such as the Brooklyn Nets and the New York Knicks, have been talking trash all off-season, about being the better team. Who is exactly is better? The Nets acquired aging stars Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. With a team who already had Deron William, Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez. This team already had offensive, but now jus became defensive. If Healthy this team can go a long way. The Knicks added Andrea Bargnani, Metta World Peace, and re-signed J.R. Smith. They drafted Tim Hardaway Jr., to a team who already had Carmelo Anthony, Tyson Chandler, and Iman Shumphert. No one is expecting much from this team, but I beg to differ. They broke the record for most three pointers made last season and I expect that to continue this year. That's what happens when you double team Carmelo Anthony.

Bottom-feeder teams, such as the Toronto Raptors, Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and the Milwaukee Bucks, are making the league more interesting. The Raptors, Cavaliers and Bucks have some big name people. I've seen them in the pre-season and teams won't be able to beat them, just by showing up. These teams are going to be tough to beat. They are more hungrier, than established teams, because they have more to prove. If they can hang with the tough teams in the regular season, they can make a playoff leap. The Raptors in the playoffs, yes. Same can be said about the others. You think the Washing ton Wizards are going to be easy, with John Wall, Bradley Beal, Trevor Ariza, Nene, Marcin Gortat. That is a good team. Notice most of these teams are from the eastern conference, the better conference. The western conference are good, but not great. The Oklahoma Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and the Houston Rockets will be in the playoffs, but with injuries, aging and first year acquisitions, I'm not sure how far these teams will go. With the Clippers they are established, throw in a coach, who can make the right moves and you now have a contender. Who will throw the Heat off ?. The eastern conference is up for grabs. Everybody got better, but the Heat really didn't. The Bulls, Pacers, Nets, and Knicks all will be throwing blows at them. The question is, will anyone of them be haymakers! This season is going to be exciting!

COURTSIDE VIEW: Pacemaker

Johnny J

Welcome to the first Courtside View entry.  I'm your host, Johnny J!  This week's topic is all about the Indiana Pacers.  

Indiana was real good at slowing down the high-powered New York Knicks' offense (RIP--Ed). The Knicks were actually ranked 11th in scoring for the regular season, averaging 100 PPG.  The Miami Heat, the Pacers' opponent in the Eastern Conference Finals, ranked 5th with 102.9 PPG.  The Pacers will try and make the Heat play at their pace, meaning plenty of half-court ball.  Indiana knows they can't out-score the Heat and I wonder, how much do they have left in the tank after going six games with the Knicks? Indiana only averaged 94.7 PPG in the regular season (92 PPG in the playoffs--Ed) and ranked a sub-par 23rd in the league.

With Miami only averaging 12 fastbreak points per game, I can really see the pacemaker Pacers controlling the game.  They have a "team" that can have a different leading scorer every game. Yes, they have a young star in Paul George (Johnny J wrote about Paul George last month: he's really "lights out"--Ed), but he still has a lot to learn, before I put him in the top-tier list of players in the NBA.

George is a player who can potentially average a triple-double with his style of play.  He doesn't need the ball in his hands every time to make an impact in the game.  But the ball does go through his hands almost every play. Whether it's on a rebound, pass, or shot. In the playoffs he has averaged 19.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. The most improved player at 22 has shown up!

The Knicks averaged 31.5 points from three pointers. They were second in the league, with the Heat, coming in third averaging 25.7. The Pacers averaged first in opponents three pointers percentage and field goal percentage.  The Heat likes to spread the floor, just like the Knicks did, but the Knicks couldn't hit their shots, averaging only 37% from behind the arc against Indiana. How will Miami learn from the Knicks mistakes?  Indiana, doesn't like to double team opponents. With defensive-minded players like Paul George, George Hill and Roy Hibbert, they don't have to. George was on the all-defensive second team and Hibbert could've been on the list as well. The tall, imposing freak had 19 blocks in six games (3.2 per game) against the Knicks.

The Pacers won the series 2-1 in the regular season against the Heat.  Both wins coming at home at Conseco Fieldhouse. The Pacers were 30-11 at home in the regular season and 6-0 at home in the postseason.  As good as the Pacers are at home, it is imperative that the prove that they can win on the road in this series.  That is just a fact of life: Champions win on the road!  They finished up the Atlanta Hawks on the road and they also stole game one in New York. I believe they can do it. They have the attitude of a championship team, and they stayed composed throughout the playoffs.  They're not that deep off the bench, but neither is Miami.  I also acknowledge they are young and everybody on the court, regardless of position or size, attacks the glass. They were first in rebounds averaging 45 per game. They're like beasts on the glass (We explained how the Miami Heat have struggled against good rebounding clubs this season--Ed).

I see this series going seven games without a doubt in my mind.  The Pacers can match the intensity of the Heat, but it's going to be about "who is going to want it more?"  The pressure is more on the Heat.  Not only do they have three All-Stars, but one in particular, LeBron James, is being compared to as the greatest of all time (Numbers don't lie--Ed).

This maybe the last time the big three are together.  The pacers will crash the boards and they will not send double teams as every man can hold his own defensive assignment. It will limit the threes from the role players and it will be a physical battle.  I believe home-court will be a major factor, but I believe the Pacers will steal one in south beach.

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NBA LESSONS: v5.1

Once again, the #Bulls out rebound the #Heat. One would think Miami fixed that issue for the #NBAplayoffs #NBAlessons #firstplaceissues
— Felipe M (@pathological_h8) May 7, 2013

Felipe M

Game 1 of the NBA Playoff match-up between the Chicago Bulls and the Miami Heat took a surprising turn as the short-handed Bulls upset the Heat in Miami on Monday night.  But if one were to take a closer look at the team statistics after the game, fans shouldn't have been that surprised as the Bulls have found ways to compete with, and even beat, the Miami Heat (minus one blowout) during the regular season with a similar formula for success.

As a Bulls' fan, I know better than to rely too heavily on regular season success.  However, we've seen the Heat struggle against the better, rebounding clubs in the NBA.  I even went as far as saying that "poor rebounding teams get exposed in the playoffs."  Sure enough, that's what happened in Game 1.  However, before we look too deep into Game 1, let's take a look at how both teams have fared against each other in the Regular Season to see if there's a pattern that we should be noticing.

Here is the first match-up of the regular season:

January 4, 2013 at Miami
Team	Score	3PT%	FT M-A	FT%	Total Rebs		Off Rebs	Pts in Paint
Chicago	96	35.7%	19-24	79.2%	48	19		46
Miami	89	25%	24-31	77.4%	28	4		34

As the score will indicate, this was a very close game.  The rest of the stats will prove that as FG%, Assists, Turnovers, etc. are pretty even.  However, as the table will show, despite the Heat attempting 31 free throw attempts, seven more than the Bulls (this stat is always a concern because of their three superstars: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh and a tendency for officials to give them more foul calls), the Bulls, as I explained back in January, simply out-worked the Heat in rebounds and points in the paint.  The Bulls also shot a lot better from 3-point range, which would solidify their victory in Miami.  Nevertheless, the hard work done in the paint and in the glass against a seemingly, more finesse Heat team is the blueprint to victory.

Unfortunately for the Bulls in the second match-up, the Heat were looking for revenge and made Chicago look like "Lambs at the Slaughter":

February 21, 2013 at Chicago
Team	Score	FG%	FT%	Persnl Fouls	Stls + Blocks	TOs	Pts in Paint
Miami	86	50.7%	64.3%	15	20	17	38
Chicago	67	37.3%	81.8%	15	14	26	38

The Heat were hitting on all cylinders in the 2nd game, but despite the impressive field goal percentage, the Heat only scored 86 points.  However, their defense actually showed up in this game, as the allowed only 26 points combined in the 2nd and 4th quarter of this game.  The Heat controlled the tempo on offense.  One thing worth nothing is the high FT% that the Bulls shot.  This would be a recurring theme as the Bulls, despite getting lesser attempts at the line, would go on to dominate in terms of percentage.  

I spoke of the Heat controlling the game's tempo, but as one will notice, personal fouls called were distributed evenly.  Favoritism, in this regard, has not been shown to the Heat, but it's worth noting that of the four regular season games, the 30 combined fouls were the lowest called in their games.  The other three games always had a minimum of 35 fouls called combined by both teams.  Perhaps the lowered fouls called proved to benefit the Heat's preference to run up-and-down the court (again, "tempo").  

As mentioned, the Heat's defense came to play in this game as they were the more aggressive team on the defensive side, accumulating more blocks and steals and creating more turnovers.  The Heat would continue to dominate the "Steals+Blocks" category for the rest of this series.  However, despite the defensive prowess, the Bulls scored 57% of their points from the paint area.  Another recurring theme as this should be a red flag for a Miami Heat team that's had a reputation for being a perceived finesse team with no formidable defensive big man in the middle (Bosh, it seems, is not the answer).  So despite actually tying the Bulls in this category, the Heat settled for more jump shots (again, finesse) that were going in at a higher rate.  Nevertheless, all the jump-shooting meant less free throw attempts (only 14 in this game).  Despite the blowout, this game was more indicative of the Bulls' struggles on offense at this juncture of the season.  The way the Heat were playing, the results should have been a lot worse for the Bulls, but they only lost by 19 points.

#heatstreak? More like #heatstroke whoo! Great job #Bulls
— Felipe M (@pathological_h8) March 28, 2013

One of the most exhilarating games of the 2012-13 NBA season, the Bulls found a way to end the Heat's 27-game winning streak.  Not only did the Bulls win, but they won without the heart, soul, leader, and big presence in the middle, Joakim Noah:

March 27, 2013 at Chicago
Team	Score	FT M-A	FT%	Tot Rebs	Off Rebs	Asts	Pts in Paint
Miami	97	16-23	69.6%	31	6	15	54
Chicago	101	13-18	72.2%	43	12	27	40

The Heat were awarded more FT attempts, but not by a large margin.  And once again, they shot worse than the Bulls from the charity stripe.  If the Heat would have shot better from the line, perhaps the result would have been different.  Not listed on the table is that the Heat, again, dominated steals + blocks, but only had a +5 on the turnover margin.  They did a good job of controlling the ball and not making mistakes on the offensive end.  Unfortunately for them, it only produced 15 assists.  

However, the Bulls' win can be attributed to going after the Heat's weakness: dominating the glass.  Even though they took care of the ball, the Heat found it hard to get the ball back.  Twelve offensive rebounds for the Bulls means more time to kill off the clock by regaining ball possession and less of a chance for the Heat to score.  Fouls were called pretty evenly and a total of 35 were called in this game.  Again, the Bulls might benefit from more fouls being called as it slows down the Heat's uptempo style.  

Finally, the Heat did a good job scoring 54 points in the paint--with no Joakim Noah there to clog the middle, defensively.  Before this game, the Heat only averaged 36 points in the paint against the Bulls.  The fact that the Bulls were able to score 40 in the paint (42 points in the paint/game in the first two games against the Heat) without the services of Noah speaks volumes.

So inadequate free throw shooting along with terrible rebounding ended the Heat's historic winning streak.  For the finale, the Heat would avenge this loss, but not in a very impressive way:

April 14, 2013 at Miami
Team	Score	FG%	3-PT%	FT%	Tot Rebs	Off Rebs	Pts in Paint
Chicago	93	35.4%	42.3%	77.4%	45	11	24
Miami	105	51.4%	35.3%	65.9%	44	4	44

It is worth prefacing that both Noah and Taj Gibson were out for this game and the Bulls still managed to keep this game close.  The Heat won on the strength of their shooting, but the Bulls were able to keep it close with their free throw and 3-point shooting.  Despite having 10 more free throw attempts than the Bulls (41-31), Chicago still shot a better percentage from the line.  

Rebounds were pretty even without Gibson and Noah, but the Bulls still managed to grab 11 offensive rebounds.  And the Heat's "Big 3" played for more than 31 minutes/player so that's pretty inexcusable.  At least they dominated the paint by outscoring Chicago by 20, but that's like me getting 20 more points against a five-year old guarding me in the paint.  

Which brings us to Game 1:

May 6, 2013 at Miami
Team	Score	FG%	3-PT%	FT%	Tot Rebs	TOs	Pts in Paint
Chicago	93	43.7%	38.9%	82.8%	46	15	40
Miami	86	39.7%	29.2%	68%	32	8	32

What do you see?  The same formula that the Bulls have been using to be successful against the NBA Champions.  This time, however, the Bulls were shooting the ball better than the Heat.  Usually, the Heat have the advantage in the shooting department, or at worst for them it's pretty even, but the Bulls have not shot the ball better than the Heat.  Add to that the Heat's woeful 3-pt and FT%; if Miami just makes one more 3-pointer or hits a few more free throw shots, we might be talking about a different result.  

One will also notice that the Heat took extremely good care of the ball in this game.  Also, the offensive rebounds were pretty equal.  Nevertheless, the same recipe that help defeat the Heat in two out of the four regular season games is in full effect in this playoff game--Bulls outrebounded Miami by 14.  You add the fact that the Bulls, once again, dominated points in the paint and that pretty much sums up the Bulls' formula in defeating the Heat in this series: control the glass, control the paint.  Chicago will not outplay the Heat in the perimeter and will not win a shootout (at least not often) against them either.  The Bulls have to do the two things they have done well against the Heat this year--glass and paint.  

Again, many people were dismissing the Heat's rebounding struggles in the regular season by justifying that they would be ready for the playoffs.  Although the Heat have held their own in the rebounding department this postseason, they finished dead last in rebounds per game and were among the worst teams in the rebound differential category as well.  As mentioned before in early January, "poor rebounding teams get exposed in the playoffs."  If the Heat don't correct that part of their game soon, their chances to repeat as champions will disappear.  Because if they're struggling against the Bulls now, what happens in the event that they have to face the Indiana Pacers in the next round?  Why the Pacers?  Because they finished as the best rebounding team in the NBA.  

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THE EMERGENCE OF PAUL GEORGE

Johnny J

"Oh, he's really lights out."--Kenny Smith

It must be something going around for players who have two first names. For some reason, they know how to ball: Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, Kevin Martin, and Paul George, just to name a few. (Taking a note down for when I have a son).  These players have established themselves as good NBA players.  But the one who suddenly just appeared out of nowhere is Paul George of the Indiana Pacers. This guy is very talented, and has made a name for himself. I would say someone to build a team around. Yes, I said it, a franchise player and at 22 years of age, he can only get better.

When was the last time you heard of an NBA player coming out of Fresno State?  I actually had to do research to get the answer; Melvin Ely, back in 2002. He was a first round pick, selected 12th overall. At age 34, he now plays in the D-league. I guess hes still developing. George is actually the fourth player to come out of Fresno State, and be selected in the first round by a team in the past 13 years. He was drafted the highest at #10.  George has made significant progress on his development, earning the Most Improved Player Award (MIP) in only his third season. George is very athletic and has great upside to his game. He can play both sides of the floor, and is quickly getting Pacers' fans to forget about Danny Granger--out for the season. When one star goes down, another one quickly rises, at least every GM hopes so.

Thus a star was born. When Granger went down, George didn't back-off from the pressure. He knew, someone had to bring the intensity every night like Granger did. In fact, he grabbed the opportunity and dunked it in. It is now his team. The only difference between George and Granger is the former is more of a complete player, he shoots, he drives, draws fouls, and plays DEFENSE people! That's Pacer basketball in a nutshell. He doesn't start fights to try and get into opponents' head like Granger did against LeBron James in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in 2012. He's not a dirty player, but yes the Pacers play physical basketball. They're just picking on the Atlanta Hawks, making them look soft (and Atlanta preferred to match-up against Indiana as oppose to the Heat?--Ed).

"We naturally just play physical," George said. "It wasn't like, 'Hey, let's play physical, let's retaliate.' That's just how we play. That's how we approach the game. We just have to keep playing how we play."

How physical did they get?  Well they had 10 steals and 5 blocks. George accounting for four steals and one block. He plays DEFENSE people! To me, he's a better player than Granger. Him and the Pacers simply make the game harder for opponents. Just ask Atlanta, now down 0-2 in their first round playoff series.  They play physical, tough, over-powering defense. They're a #3 seed for a reason. Then, when they get their crowd behind them, its just harder to beat them at Bankers Life Fieldhouse (30-11 at home).  They were ranked first in rebounds in the regular season and second in points allowed.  I can't reiterate this enough: they play DEFENSE people!

How did George fare against the Hawks?  Well, in their first two playoff games of the series, he messed around and got a triple-double in the first game and followed that up on Wednesday with 27 points, eight rebounds, three assists, four steals and a block.  George, also made his first All-Star appearence this past season. Yeah, I would say a franchise player. It's no wonder Larry Bird won the Executive of the Year Award last season.  He knew how to build a team. Putting George around a solid point guard in George Hill and a big body in Roy Hibbert in the post. Thanks to George, they are a solid team and will be for years with George leading them. A former bulldog, that I can remember.

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