MARDI GRAS MADNESS: Texas Power Drinkers

Felipe M

We continue on our reviews for our fantasy baseball league, Mardi Gras Madness.  Please take some time to read about The Evil Empire.

Up next is yet another team out of Lone Star State.  And apparently, they like to drink--a lot:

EAST DIVISION--Texas Power Drinkers 

BATTING LINEUP

Like: Matt Kemp has turned into a beast since 2010 in terms of counting stats.  He strikes out too much, but does enough to get on base and his power and speed makes him a legit player in both Roto and Points leagues.  Coming in for support are Billy Butler, Yadier Molina, Aaron Hill and Jason Heyward.

Dislike: Admittedly, out of desperation, I was thinking of picking up Erick Aybar as my SS options were disappearing at my draft.  Luckily, I didn’t have to.  Aybar is a pesky hitter, but comes equipped with a low on-base%. 

Nick Markakis will need to prove that he is still a
relevant player in fantasy baseball
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann)

Look Out For: Carl Crawford if it turns out that his stint as a Red Sox was just an aberration.  Many in the SABR community think that Crawford is declining at a dangerous pace, but for once I’m optimistic about a player.  New league, new scene, and a clean bill of health might return Crawford into a top hitter again.  Also, Kendry Morales in Seattle as they move the fences in.  He should be able to produce if he’s able to stay healthy for a full year.  And finally, Jeff Keppinger is a sneaky player to keep track of.  He qualifies everywhere on the infield except for SS.  He had a surprising year in 2012 and has been hitting the ball all spring long (at one point he was hitting well above .500--batting average). 

Bench: Keppinger will hold down 3B for the injured David Freese.  Hanley Ramirez is on the mend, but will surely replace either Aybar or Keppinger, depending on who’s struggling upon his return.  Currently, Nick Markakis is slotted as the DH, but if he can’t hit for a bit more power, I can see a scenario where both will share duties at that spot. 

2013 Hitting Projections
Player	Team	Pos	BB/K	AB/K	AB/HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB
Matt Kemp	Los Angeles	CF	0.41	3.83	17.20	0.366	0.533	0.899	19
Billy Butler	Kansas City	1B	0.61	5.98	23.99	0.374	0.495	0.869	2
Kendry Morales	Seattle	1B	0.30	4.38	22.03	0.326	0.464	0.790	0
Nick Markakis	Baltimore	RF	0.80	7.86	38.74	0.362	0.441	0.803	5
Aaron Hill	Arizona	2B	0.55	7.07	27.68	0.335	0.460	0.795	12

PITCHING

Like: King Felix Hernandez is the ace of this staff.  He will be supported by Doug Fister who has been great since being traded to Detroit.  I also like Mat Latos.  Even when he was traded to the Reds, I was still trying to draft him in all of my leagues last season because I believe in his abilities.  Then there’s Matt Moore who will look to take another step forward in his progression to become a legit, 1^st Tier SP.

Dislike: This team makes it too easy for me: UbaldoJimenez and Jason Vargas were good enough to make this squad.  Wow!  Luckily, this team has plenty of pitching depth where they’re not in desperate need for these two, mediocre, pitchers’ services.

Look Out For: There are a few candidates here.   Brett Anderson was struggling during the spring as he tried to overcome a neck injury.  When he’s on, he is a legit, 2^nd Tier pitcher.  Lance Lynn, if he is able to pitch like he did early in 2012, this team will have a pitching staff that will overwhelm opponents.  

2013 Pitching Projections
Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/9
Doug Fister	Detroit	3.63	6.65	1.83	9.21	1.23	0.81
Brett Anderson	Oakland	3.28	6.78	2.07	8.79	1.21	0.72
Lance Lynn	St. Louis	2.92	8.75	3.00	8.16	1.24	0.89

Drew Smyly was an interesting selection by this club.  Even though he was relegated to the bullpen, he is still pitching deep into spring games.  I was shocked to see that the Tigers did not send him down the Minors as it was reported early in the spring that Smyly would be starting in 2013, either in the Majors or Minors.  I can’t envision him as a SP in a Tigers’ uniform because the rotation is full of pitchers that can rack up the innings, but it’s clear that the Tigers are up to something. 

Finally, lurking in the Minors is Zach Wheeler who might be brought up sometime in 2013.  Selfishly, I would prefer sooner rather than later as I anxiously wait to see what this kid can do in the Majors.  As I mentioned before, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets wait until September like they did with Matt Harvey. 

Bullpen: As much as I’m shaken by last year’s roller-coaster ride that was Addison Reed, I think he will be a bit more stable in 2013.  After battling an infected tooth, Rafael Soriano seems to be ready to go for 2013.  In terms of K/BB, he rated middle of the pack among qualified closers in that category so there’s a slight concern there.  Put it another way, Glen Perkins ranks ahead of Soriano in that category.

PREDICTION: This club has themselves a good collection of players.  As always with this franchise, I’m highly impressed with the balance they are able to achieve in their lineup after every single draft.  This year, however, I have to caution my expectations of this team due to the fact that there are way too many “ifs” on this club.  “If this guy comes back healthy,” “if this guy can pitch like he’s supposed to,” “if this guy can bounce back,” “etc.”  It’s ok to gamble on one or two players whose stock fell for whatever reason, but when it becomes the basis on building your franchise for any upcoming season, it tends to hurt more than help you in the end.  

More fantasy baseball is available here.

You can view the other Mardi Gras Madness teams here. 

MAKING THE PITCH: Detroit Tigers

Tiger Management, along with Manager Jim Leyland,
have a tough choice to make for that #5 spot in the rotation.
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos)

Felipe M

We take a look at the projected starting rotations and closer situations of every MLB team.  Of course, this will come from a fantasy perspective.  All cited stats are based on 2013 projections.  

Check out our analysis of the Chicago Cubs, here. 

The Detroit Tigers will now be looked at.

PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

1. Justin Verlander
• Good: It's JUSTIN VERLANDER!
• Bad: His WHIP (1.07) is only slightly better than Jered Weaver and Zack Greinke.  
2. Doug Fister
• Good: 3.63 K/BB is three-tenth's worse than Verlander's.  
• Bad: 9.21 H/9 raises expected WHIP to 1.23.
3. Max Scherzer
• Good: 3.51 K/BB: do you sense a pattern with this pitching staff yet? 9.46 K/9 would lead the team in that category.  
• Bad: 8.31 H/9 increases WHIP to 1.22.  
4. Anibal Sanchez
• Good: 3.12 K/BB is fueled by a  7.97 K/9.  
• Bad: H/9 of 8.78 raises WHIP to 1.26. 

CLOSER

1. Bruce Rondon
• Good: #3 Prospect in Tigers' organization.  9.96 K/9 along with 6.75 H/9 gives him a chance to be dominant.  Jim Leyland, in an interview today, explained that he's been impressed with the pitcher's progress.  The praise from Leyland came after he pitched a perfect 9th inning against the New York Mets of yesterday's game.  
• Bad: He's a young, raw pitcher and it's not surprising that he's projected to struggle with walks (BB/9 of 4.98), raising his WHIP to 1.30.  He's also might be susceptible to the long ball (HR/9 1.29).  The Tigers also seem to be really interested in acquiring Carlos Marmol from the Chicago Cubs.  

FANTASY ADVICE

The #5 slot is up for grabs between Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly.  Suddenly, Porcello has found a way to boost his strikeout totals.  He's seen an increase in the last few seasons or so and last I checked, he was striking out one batter per inning during this spring.  However, FanGraphs did an interesting feature on his strikeout totals in the spring, citing that the level of talent he's faced is pretty much a joke (how hard is it to strikeout Dan Uggla, anyway?).  

On the other hand, Smyly seems to have no problems striking out hitters (K/9 of 7.78 compared to Porcello's 5.35) and even though he might give up more walks, both pitchers are expected to finish the year with similar WHIP (1.30).  It's a pretty close match this spring, but it looks like the Tigers' best bet is to send down Smyly to the Minors; unless, of course, they can trade Porcello (to the Cubs for Marmol?).  

As much as Rondon's upside seems to be legit, personally, I would stay clear from the young fireballer.  The walks are a concern.  I also would prefer Smyly over Porcello, but even Porcello might be worth a flier.  If his spring numbers are close to being the real deal, Porcello's stock will easily sky-rocket.  

As far as the other Tigers' starters go: any one of those pitchers will help out your fantasy team in a big way this season.  Verlander is the benchmark that all, wanna-be elite pitchers should try to reach.  Fister, Scherzer, and Sanchez will fit nicely in the middle of your rotation.  They are conventional, top-notch, 2nd-tier starting pitchers.  

More MLB content is available here.