MARDI GRAS MADNESS: Texas Power Drinkers

Felipe M

We continue on our reviews for our fantasy baseball league, Mardi Gras Madness.  Please take some time to read about The Evil Empire.

Up next is yet another team out of Lone Star State.  And apparently, they like to drink--a lot:

EAST DIVISION--Texas Power Drinkers 

BATTING LINEUP

Like: Matt Kemp has turned into a beast since 2010 in terms of counting stats.  He strikes out too much, but does enough to get on base and his power and speed makes him a legit player in both Roto and Points leagues.  Coming in for support are Billy Butler, Yadier Molina, Aaron Hill and Jason Heyward.

Dislike: Admittedly, out of desperation, I was thinking of picking up Erick Aybar as my SS options were disappearing at my draft.  Luckily, I didn’t have to.  Aybar is a pesky hitter, but comes equipped with a low on-base%. 

Nick Markakis will need to prove that he is still a
relevant player in fantasy baseball
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann)

Look Out For: Carl Crawford if it turns out that his stint as a Red Sox was just an aberration.  Many in the SABR community think that Crawford is declining at a dangerous pace, but for once I’m optimistic about a player.  New league, new scene, and a clean bill of health might return Crawford into a top hitter again.  Also, Kendry Morales in Seattle as they move the fences in.  He should be able to produce if he’s able to stay healthy for a full year.  And finally, Jeff Keppinger is a sneaky player to keep track of.  He qualifies everywhere on the infield except for SS.  He had a surprising year in 2012 and has been hitting the ball all spring long (at one point he was hitting well above .500--batting average). 

Bench: Keppinger will hold down 3B for the injured David Freese.  Hanley Ramirez is on the mend, but will surely replace either Aybar or Keppinger, depending on who’s struggling upon his return.  Currently, Nick Markakis is slotted as the DH, but if he can’t hit for a bit more power, I can see a scenario where both will share duties at that spot. 

2013 Hitting Projections
Player	Team	Pos	BB/K	AB/K	AB/HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB
Matt Kemp	Los Angeles	CF	0.41	3.83	17.20	0.366	0.533	0.899	19
Billy Butler	Kansas City	1B	0.61	5.98	23.99	0.374	0.495	0.869	2
Kendry Morales	Seattle	1B	0.30	4.38	22.03	0.326	0.464	0.790	0
Nick Markakis	Baltimore	RF	0.80	7.86	38.74	0.362	0.441	0.803	5
Aaron Hill	Arizona	2B	0.55	7.07	27.68	0.335	0.460	0.795	12

PITCHING

Like: King Felix Hernandez is the ace of this staff.  He will be supported by Doug Fister who has been great since being traded to Detroit.  I also like Mat Latos.  Even when he was traded to the Reds, I was still trying to draft him in all of my leagues last season because I believe in his abilities.  Then there’s Matt Moore who will look to take another step forward in his progression to become a legit, 1^st Tier SP.

Dislike: This team makes it too easy for me: UbaldoJimenez and Jason Vargas were good enough to make this squad.  Wow!  Luckily, this team has plenty of pitching depth where they’re not in desperate need for these two, mediocre, pitchers’ services.

Look Out For: There are a few candidates here.   Brett Anderson was struggling during the spring as he tried to overcome a neck injury.  When he’s on, he is a legit, 2^nd Tier pitcher.  Lance Lynn, if he is able to pitch like he did early in 2012, this team will have a pitching staff that will overwhelm opponents.  

2013 Pitching Projections
Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/9
Doug Fister	Detroit	3.63	6.65	1.83	9.21	1.23	0.81
Brett Anderson	Oakland	3.28	6.78	2.07	8.79	1.21	0.72
Lance Lynn	St. Louis	2.92	8.75	3.00	8.16	1.24	0.89

Drew Smyly was an interesting selection by this club.  Even though he was relegated to the bullpen, he is still pitching deep into spring games.  I was shocked to see that the Tigers did not send him down the Minors as it was reported early in the spring that Smyly would be starting in 2013, either in the Majors or Minors.  I can’t envision him as a SP in a Tigers’ uniform because the rotation is full of pitchers that can rack up the innings, but it’s clear that the Tigers are up to something. 

Finally, lurking in the Minors is Zach Wheeler who might be brought up sometime in 2013.  Selfishly, I would prefer sooner rather than later as I anxiously wait to see what this kid can do in the Majors.  As I mentioned before, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets wait until September like they did with Matt Harvey. 

Bullpen: As much as I’m shaken by last year’s roller-coaster ride that was Addison Reed, I think he will be a bit more stable in 2013.  After battling an infected tooth, Rafael Soriano seems to be ready to go for 2013.  In terms of K/BB, he rated middle of the pack among qualified closers in that category so there’s a slight concern there.  Put it another way, Glen Perkins ranks ahead of Soriano in that category.

PREDICTION: This club has themselves a good collection of players.  As always with this franchise, I’m highly impressed with the balance they are able to achieve in their lineup after every single draft.  This year, however, I have to caution my expectations of this team due to the fact that there are way too many “ifs” on this club.  “If this guy comes back healthy,” “if this guy can pitch like he’s supposed to,” “if this guy can bounce back,” “etc.”  It’s ok to gamble on one or two players whose stock fell for whatever reason, but when it becomes the basis on building your franchise for any upcoming season, it tends to hurt more than help you in the end.  

More fantasy baseball is available here.

You can view the other Mardi Gras Madness teams here. 

CATCH!: 2013 Early Pre-Rankings--CF

How far down will Curtis Granderson drop on this list?

Felipe M

LF pre-rankings are available here. 

GREEN = on my keeper team.

TOP TIER

1. Andrew McCutchen: The time is now for "Cutch" to take over the top spot at CF after waiting patiently for his turn to arrive.  I don't even have to explain myself on this one.  With respect to Mike Trout's raw abilities and skills, McCutchen, at this stage of his career, is the more complete hitter and, therefore, occupies this year's top spot at center.  

2. Matt Kemp: With all due respect to Trout, it's hard to ignore a guy who is projected to produce an OPS of .907 (per ESPN).  By comparison, Trout is projected by the worldwide leader to obtain an OPS of .823.  

3. Mike Trout: There he is!  This year, Trout is projected to produce an OPS of, on average, .871.  He's also needs to work on his approach at the plate.  Perhaps if I were solely just concentrating on Roto-style ball, I would consider putting Trout at #1 (27 homers/48 steals), but I have to consider his unpolished discipline at the plate for the players who have to take strikeouts and on-base% into effect.  "Cutch" and Kemp are projected to have a higher on-base% for 2013.  

4. Josh Hamilton: Projected to have better power production than Trout, Hamilton is even less disciplined at the plate than Trout and also comes with plenty of baggage (injuries, off-the-field issues, etc.).  However, new team with established stars on the club should make him a happier, even more productive hitter. 

SECOND TIER

5. Bryce Harper: Could possibly be a 25/25 guy, but, like Trout, he needs to improve his discipline at the plate.  Harper is still developing his game despite making an All-Star appearance and winning Rookie of the Year honors.  That's a scary thought to have a player that's established like Harper, yet is still in the process of improving to greater heights.  

6. Adam Jones: I gave up on Jones a long time ago.  Even as his power finally developed as promised, it's hard to ignore his terrible discipline at the plate.  However, his adequate contact rate helps him get on base and provide a very heatlhy batting average.  He'll also throw in 15 stolen bases.

Yoenis Cespedes turned out to be as good as advertised.

7. Yoenis Cespedes: I attempted to draft Cespedes in the draft last year, but he went one spot ahead of me in the 6th round (which really is the 13th round in our league after taking into account the 7 keepers one must keep).  He can easily be a 25/25 player at his best in 2013 and his adequate contact rate keeps him at a steady batting average.  If he can imrpove on his discipline, he can easily be an elite player at his position. 

8. Jacoby Ellsbury: He can easily be an elite player with his speed/power combo, but injuries have forced owners to look elsewhere for healthier alternatives.  ESPN is calling his injuries "fluky," but a player that plays hard like Ellsbury needs to understand how to pace himself as well.  There's a thin line between being a "hustling" player and being "Eric Byrnes"--a guy who just goes at full speed just for the sake of showing his manager that he can go full speed at all times.  Ellsbury is not a scrub like Byrnes.  But he does need to be healthy to produce and be on the field to produce the monster numbers that we know he can attain.  

9. Curtis Granderson: I was ready to relegate Granderson into THIRD TIER status, but it's very hard to drop him out of the top 10 at the position.  I despise the fact that he has terrible plate discipline and strikeout totals, but sometimes those counting stats are so impressive, that all other stats that gauge a player's contact/hit, and patience can be thrown out the window.  As long as Granderson plays at Yankee Stadium, we can forgive him for being a quasi-all-or-nothing hitter.  He is projected to miss the enitre month of May.

10. B.J. Upton: And then there's the overrated Upton.  The counting stats are great, but even Roto players will be pulling their hair at his awful batting average.  His low contact rate, poor discipline, and laughable on-base% would make him practically useless in Head-2-Head/Points' leagues if it wasn't for the fact that his 30/30 capabilities can provide for an explosive outburst of production from time to time.  

THIRD TIER

The rest of the field: 

• Austin Jackson (with a terrible approach at the plate and a high strikeout rate, how he is able to project to have a .348 on-base% is beyond me)
• Desmond Jennings (still needs to figure it out at the plate, but when he gets on base, he can fly)
• Alejandro De Aza (adequate contact rate and can actually get on-base and provide 25+ stolen bases and 10+ homeruns).
• Angel Pagan (modest on-base% is made up by good discipline and contact rate. Can get you 30 stolen bases)
• Shane Victorino (age and decrease in production is a concern, but still a solid play with a projected respectable on-base% of .337 and 28 steals).
• Dexter Fowler (potential 15/15 player, but very impatient at the plate. Projected OPS of .812 is not too shabby though)
• Michael Bourn (adequate contact rate will help him achieve projection of 45 stolen bases)
• Carlos Gomez (15/30 player, but terrible on-base skills will hurt in both Roto and Points' leagues alike)
• Coco Crisp (decent patience and contact skills will should mean an improved batting average and on-base% alike. Power seems to be waning, but is still a good source of steals)

Keep an eye on:

• Adam Eaton (Until I see that he has "officially" won a starting spot, I'm not moving him from this spot).
• Ben Revere (can rack up the steals, and contact rate plus speed makes him a tough out despite low on-base%)
• Drew Stubbs (Roto leagues only)

All photos courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos.

More MLB content is available here.