MARDI GRAS MADNESS: Texas Power Drinkers

Felipe M

We continue on our reviews for our fantasy baseball league, Mardi Gras Madness.  Please take some time to read about The Evil Empire.

Up next is yet another team out of Lone Star State.  And apparently, they like to drink--a lot:

EAST DIVISION--Texas Power Drinkers 

BATTING LINEUP

Like: Matt Kemp has turned into a beast since 2010 in terms of counting stats.  He strikes out too much, but does enough to get on base and his power and speed makes him a legit player in both Roto and Points leagues.  Coming in for support are Billy Butler, Yadier Molina, Aaron Hill and Jason Heyward.

Dislike: Admittedly, out of desperation, I was thinking of picking up Erick Aybar as my SS options were disappearing at my draft.  Luckily, I didn’t have to.  Aybar is a pesky hitter, but comes equipped with a low on-base%. 

Nick Markakis will need to prove that he is still a
relevant player in fantasy baseball
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann)

Look Out For: Carl Crawford if it turns out that his stint as a Red Sox was just an aberration.  Many in the SABR community think that Crawford is declining at a dangerous pace, but for once I’m optimistic about a player.  New league, new scene, and a clean bill of health might return Crawford into a top hitter again.  Also, Kendry Morales in Seattle as they move the fences in.  He should be able to produce if he’s able to stay healthy for a full year.  And finally, Jeff Keppinger is a sneaky player to keep track of.  He qualifies everywhere on the infield except for SS.  He had a surprising year in 2012 and has been hitting the ball all spring long (at one point he was hitting well above .500--batting average). 

Bench: Keppinger will hold down 3B for the injured David Freese.  Hanley Ramirez is on the mend, but will surely replace either Aybar or Keppinger, depending on who’s struggling upon his return.  Currently, Nick Markakis is slotted as the DH, but if he can’t hit for a bit more power, I can see a scenario where both will share duties at that spot. 

2013 Hitting Projections
Player	Team	Pos	BB/K	AB/K	AB/HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB
Matt Kemp	Los Angeles	CF	0.41	3.83	17.20	0.366	0.533	0.899	19
Billy Butler	Kansas City	1B	0.61	5.98	23.99	0.374	0.495	0.869	2
Kendry Morales	Seattle	1B	0.30	4.38	22.03	0.326	0.464	0.790	0
Nick Markakis	Baltimore	RF	0.80	7.86	38.74	0.362	0.441	0.803	5
Aaron Hill	Arizona	2B	0.55	7.07	27.68	0.335	0.460	0.795	12

PITCHING

Like: King Felix Hernandez is the ace of this staff.  He will be supported by Doug Fister who has been great since being traded to Detroit.  I also like Mat Latos.  Even when he was traded to the Reds, I was still trying to draft him in all of my leagues last season because I believe in his abilities.  Then there’s Matt Moore who will look to take another step forward in his progression to become a legit, 1^st Tier SP.

Dislike: This team makes it too easy for me: UbaldoJimenez and Jason Vargas were good enough to make this squad.  Wow!  Luckily, this team has plenty of pitching depth where they’re not in desperate need for these two, mediocre, pitchers’ services.

Look Out For: There are a few candidates here.   Brett Anderson was struggling during the spring as he tried to overcome a neck injury.  When he’s on, he is a legit, 2^nd Tier pitcher.  Lance Lynn, if he is able to pitch like he did early in 2012, this team will have a pitching staff that will overwhelm opponents.  

2013 Pitching Projections
Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/9
Doug Fister	Detroit	3.63	6.65	1.83	9.21	1.23	0.81
Brett Anderson	Oakland	3.28	6.78	2.07	8.79	1.21	0.72
Lance Lynn	St. Louis	2.92	8.75	3.00	8.16	1.24	0.89

Drew Smyly was an interesting selection by this club.  Even though he was relegated to the bullpen, he is still pitching deep into spring games.  I was shocked to see that the Tigers did not send him down the Minors as it was reported early in the spring that Smyly would be starting in 2013, either in the Majors or Minors.  I can’t envision him as a SP in a Tigers’ uniform because the rotation is full of pitchers that can rack up the innings, but it’s clear that the Tigers are up to something. 

Finally, lurking in the Minors is Zach Wheeler who might be brought up sometime in 2013.  Selfishly, I would prefer sooner rather than later as I anxiously wait to see what this kid can do in the Majors.  As I mentioned before, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets wait until September like they did with Matt Harvey. 

Bullpen: As much as I’m shaken by last year’s roller-coaster ride that was Addison Reed, I think he will be a bit more stable in 2013.  After battling an infected tooth, Rafael Soriano seems to be ready to go for 2013.  In terms of K/BB, he rated middle of the pack among qualified closers in that category so there’s a slight concern there.  Put it another way, Glen Perkins ranks ahead of Soriano in that category.

PREDICTION: This club has themselves a good collection of players.  As always with this franchise, I’m highly impressed with the balance they are able to achieve in their lineup after every single draft.  This year, however, I have to caution my expectations of this team due to the fact that there are way too many “ifs” on this club.  “If this guy comes back healthy,” “if this guy can pitch like he’s supposed to,” “if this guy can bounce back,” “etc.”  It’s ok to gamble on one or two players whose stock fell for whatever reason, but when it becomes the basis on building your franchise for any upcoming season, it tends to hurt more than help you in the end.  

More fantasy baseball is available here.

You can view the other Mardi Gras Madness teams here. 

CATCH!: 2013 Early Pre-Rankings--SS

There's no doubting his ability, but can Tulo stay healthy for a full season?
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos)

Felipe M

Catchers are ranked, here.

1B are ranked, here.

2B are ranked, here.

GREEN=Currently on my keeper team. 

TOP TIER

1. Troy Tulowitzki: His ability is never in question; it's his health that seems to be a problem.  Projected OPS alone puts him way ahead of everybody else at the position.

2. Ben Zobrist: Just like in our 2B list, Zobrist's projections and position versatility are too good to pass up and ignore for 2013.

3. Jose Reyes: New team, new league; it will be interesting to see how Reyes responds to a totally new environment.  High contact rate, respectable on-base%, and stolen bases, presumably, will streamline very well. 

4. Starlin Castro: I'm really not sold on Castro, but his career numbers at this stage of his career seem to be comparable to some pretty good, Hall of Famers when they were Castro's age (22).  However, he needs to improve on his plate discipline and petty, in-game distractions on defense, but youth is definitely on his side.

5. Hanley Ramirez: What a miserable year it must have been to be a Hanley owner. He can still be a 20-20 player and he's projected to improve his plate discipline, but it's hard for me to take a risk on a guy who might be more of a headache than he's worth.

SECOND TIER

6. Ian Desmond: Came on strong late in 2012 as he was more aggressive at the plate.  Nevertheless, I find it hard to imagine him repeating Slash Lines of .292/.335/.511 with a terrible batting approach.  However, he's still projected to be a 20/20 player.

7. Jimmy Rollins: J-Roll is approaching that time in a player's career where diminished skills are too hard to overcome.  An impressive contact rate was his saving grace as it helped him hit 23 HRs and garner 30 stolen bases, but a paltry OPS of .743 is not going to cut it.  He needs to turn that contact rate into a higher batting average to help out Roto owners, but his projected low OPS for 2013 might hurt head2head owners.

8. Elvis Andrus: Decent contact rate and patience at the plate is how Andrus generates his most important attribute in fantasy: the ability to steal bases.  That combination also helps with batting average.

9. Erick Aybar: Never thought I would see the day that Aybar would make a top 10 in anything, but here we are.  Aybar has proven to be somewhat of a tough out and that's basically how he gets on base. Might hit 10 homeruns and is good for 25 stolen bases and his ability to make contact with the ball will help with batting average.

10. Asdrubal Cabrera: If "defensive wizardry" was aggregated in fantasy leagues, Cabrera's stock would be rising on this list.  However, it's an offensive-minded game. He brings 15/15 potential and a respectable on-base%. He does strikeout a lot so if you're in a head2head league that takes away points for that stat, you might want to look elsewhere for a more stable alternative.

11. Alcides Escobar: A recurring theme with shortstops, Escobar comes with a decent contact rate.  However, unlike the last few players listed, Escobar is very impatient at the plate.  Escobar comes with 30 steals potential and that's why he's on a lot of publications' top 15 list, but I, personally, would look elsewhere to fill out the position.

12. Marco Scutaro: There's that man again!  We explained Scutaro's 2013 outlook in our 2B projections.  Basically, impressive contact rate and patience, but advanced age is a factor.

13. Derek Jeter: Speaking of age: Jeter should be ready to go for 2013, barring more grotesque injuries.  Just like Scutaro, Jeter is an age risk (39). Good contact rate, impressive on-base numbers, and ability to hit for a high average make him an attractive choice in fantasy, but power has been pretty much sapped out of him and stolen bases are declining.  He's still a 10/10 player.  

THIRD TIER

The rest of the field: 

• Danny Espinosa (if he were more patient at the plate, he would definitely be a higher ranked middle infielder).
• J.J. Hardy
• Alexei Ramirez
• Andrelton Simmons
• Everth Cabrera
• Jed Lowrie (talk about your deep sleepers)

Keep an eye on:

• Jurickson Profar
• Yunel Escobar
• Billy Hamilton
• Jean Segura

Mor MLB content available here.

3B list is available here.