NBA LESSONS: v5.2: Point/Counterpoint

Felipe M

Interesting question asked by NBA Debates over the weekend: Who has the brightest future: Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, or James Harden? I asked our favorite Sacramento Kings’ fan, Josh C. about it.  What we ended up with was another long-winded conversation about the state of the NBA...

Josh: If it weren't for his ankles, I'd say Curry.  The guy is “Basketball” and might end up being one of the top 3 shooters of all time.  But because of his ankles, I'll reluctantly pick Harden.  He has a pitbull mentality, but there just seems an aura of calmness surrounding him.  He knows he's a top 5 player but doesn't flaunt it. Complete game with a humongous basketball IQ and can really function in the 1, 2 or 3 spots. I also think he wants it bad enough to improve on what he did this year.

Felipe: Just out of curiosity, who's in your top 5 in the NBA? I figure it has to be LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden, and....?????

Josh: Durant, James, Harden and quite honestly, I'm not sure anymore. With the injuries to Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose, (and Kobe Bryant for that matter), the rest of the top 5 is kind of murky at present time.  Does Dwight Howard deserve to be there? Is Kyrie Irving there yet? Did Paul George just ascend into the conversation? Do I believe Carmelo Anthony is a top 5 player? I guess Chris Paul has to be there by default, but I question how long his knees will let him stay in "elite" territory.  Is it fair to at least mention Tim Duncan after the year he had (even if he was coming off years that pointed towards the inevitable demise of his illustrious career)?  Dwyane Wade is no longer in the conversation, right?  Or does his 24.00 PER suggest otherwise?  Tony Parker? I never imagined I would even think of him as top 10, but I really have to stop and think.

It's so difficult to put a guy up next to another guy (both elite) and say, "yep, this guy is better" (and this goes back to our previous conversation of comparing across generations.  It's just as hard to compare across systems and different positions).

Felipe: I went through the same struggles trying to come up with a top five. Hesitant to add Harden after only one season of him carrying a franchise, but with all the injuries and question marks surrounding the rest of the game's elite, it’s really hard not to include him along James and Durant.

I guess Anthony would be on that list of top 5 players as well. Chris Paul as the league's best, pure point guard would make the rest of that short list

Josh: If you backed me into a corner and made me give you 5 names right now (keeping out Westbrook, Rose, and Kobe due to injury) I'd have to say (in no particular order) Lebron, Durant, Harden, CP3, and--I think I'm going to lean towards ‘Melo, but a case could easily be made for Wade, Parker, and even Steph.  My hesitation with Parker and Duncan is that I'm not sure which one is even better of the 2 at this point.

Felipe: It’s Parker, but regardless--

Josh: Also, the reason I'm not hesitant about putting Harden there is that I argued coming into the season that Harden would be the better player of Harden/Westbrook in 2 seasons, and before the injury, I would have said Westbrook is top 5.  I think Harden played like a top 5 player this season and, most importantly, I don't think it was a fluke. I believe 100% in his talent and that this season was just the starting point.

Felipe: Definitely not a fluke!  Over exceeding even the highest of high expectations that were placed on Harden is what made Harden's season superb.  Like I said, would like to see more than one season of him doing this, but there's no doubt (barring injury) he can easily do it again.  Wade, Parker, and Curry come with too many injury concerns.  So our top 5 of Melo, James, Durant, CP3, and Harden seems to make the most sense as it currently stands right now.

For the record, this is how I would rank these five players:

1. LeBron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Carmelo Anthony
4. James Harden
5. Chris Paul

Josh: Did you realize there wasn't a single 20/10 guy in the league this year? That's freaking unheard of!  Over the last 12 seasons prior to this one, at least 3 players hit that mark 10 out of the 12 seasons, and 2 of them hit that mark in the other 2 seasons. Just goes to show the wacky season it was

Felipe: Come on dude, I'm way ahead of you!  There are five theories that TrueHoop listed as the possibilities for the lack of 20/10 guys in the NBA this year—meaning 20 points and 10 rebounds just to clarify.         

             

But once again, the evolution of the NBA going with perimeter players to make it a more open, more exciting, fast-paced game is incredibly evident after this regular season concluded.

Josh: Evidenced by the fact that if you made a top 10 players’ list in the league right now (and included Rose, Kobe, Westbrook—even though we don't know for sure if Kobe can come back and be “Kobe,”...), we'd likely end up without a single PF/C (though Dwight can move in there if he redeems himself wherever he goes next year.  And I think Marc Gasol has a strong case to be on the cusp of top 10, too (okay, maybe I'm a bit biased with him).

Felipe: I kind of like the NBA this way 

Josh: Regarding the TrueHoop article: instead of them looking too deep, all they needed to do was look at the surface and see that the 2 reigning, perennial 20/10 guys were shells of their former selves due to injury (but somewhat being a big whiny baby on a team with the mamba).  Those guys were Kevin Love and D-Howard.  The other players that can potentially average 20/10 are mostly in the twilight of their careers, or just slightly declining below 20/10 levels either by changed role on their teams, or simply they don't try as hard as they once did.  This group includes the following:

• Zach Randolph
• Blake Griffin
• Kevin Garnett
• Carlos Boozer
• Al Jefferson

Then you have the guys who can score twenty, but struggle to average even 9 boards a game because, quite frankly, they're afraid of rebounding (one could say there are fewer rebounds available, but I don't think it makes a difference with this group).

• Brook Lopez
• LaMarcus Aldridge

If you take it one step further, we had our other group of 20/10 guys, and that's the PGs that were 20 in the buckets’ category and 10 assisted buckets. We're missing that as well and partially because those players suffer from the same scenario as above (Chris Paul, Deron Williams, etc...).

While the game has evolved and changed, a lot of the perimeter change has to do with the talent coming through as well.  The NBA (as with anything else) is cyclical and while right now the best players in the game are all wings (and point guards if you don't consider a PG as a wing), in a few years that could shift to where our dominant presences are again the larger bodies.  Conversely, perhaps those larger bodies may never come as well.

One of our future 20/10ers is already in the league in the form of one Mr. Anthony Davis.

Felipe: Which was my next point: the 20-10 guys of yesteryear are seeing diminished skills and whereas Dwightmare and K-Love would have been two players that can reach that milestone, the game itself has not developed the big men that are skilled enough to score with relative ease and have the ability to rebound in bunches. I think a big issue is the fact that a lot of the big men that are coming up the high school and college ranks are becoming perimeter players (i.e. Kevin Durant, LeBron James, etc.). Not only that, but these same big men are not being taught to play like the big men that we saw dominate the 1980s and 1990s. A guy like Roy Hibbert is a throwback, but I don't think he has the skill to be a 20-10 guy (Finished 12-8).  Even Davis' potential to be a 20-10 guy (finished 13.5-8) lies heavily in his athleticism. But can he develop into a Tim Duncan-like frontcourt player? I'm not so sure.  He might develop an outside shot before he develops a more fluid post game. And he's still lanky enough where more, well-built big men will find a way to push him around from the boards. 

Maybe DeMarcus Cousins could be that guy (17.1-9.9), but he's already so amazingly skilled and talented, the question should really be, why the hell hasn't he been that 20-10 guy yet?

More NBA content is available here. 

PLOTSKY'S POSITION: Boozer/Bargnani

Dan P

Not my profile pic, but
pretty darn close
resemblance
(photo courtesy of Felipe M)

Dan is a Chicago Bulls' fan and chimes in on the potential trade of Carlos Boozer to Toronto.

The NBA trade deadline approaches and yet again we are left to ponder which teams will be aggressive both in basketball and financial terms.  We have already witnessed one trade rumor that has left this writer in particular befuddled and angry.  

Which is why I would like to start with a trade rumor I have dubbed "Give me a bag of balls, but only if they have air in them."  This of course is the Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors’ trade rumor involving players Carlos Boozer for Andrea Bargnani that leaked to the public last week and completely angered Bulls’ nation.  

Look, I won't be objective here. I simply cannot!  I have tried for the last two years to think of every conceivable way to deal Carlos Boozer and live the Kevin Love pipe dream.  Despite his vastly improved play this year, it still isn't enough to warrant a free pass when he looks like “Carlos Loozer” on the court with Derrick Rose.  

Boozer is an undersized, flat-footed defender who rebounds better than his size would indicate and he flourishes in a pick and pop offense or Iso, post-ups from 10 feet.  And I do mean pick and pop as I have yet to see Carlos roll effectively and elevate to create good layups.  

I have provided a small excerpt from 82games.com of a few stats that are becoming more commonplace for NBA teams to look at.  This, by the way, is this year's stats for Boozer:

2012-13 On Court / Off Court stats for Carlos Boozer

Many stats are shown on a 'per 48-minute' basis

Stat		ON Court		OFF Court		Net
Minutes		1449		970		59%
Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.		103.0		108.5		-5.5
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.		105.6		98.5		+7.0
Net Points per 100 Possessions		-2.6		+10.0		-12.6
Offensive Rebounding	31.9%		35.1%		-3.3%
Defensive Rebounding	70.2%		68.9%		+1.2%
Total Rebounding	51.0%		52.0%		-1.0%

It's mind-boggling how the Bulls are a better team defensively AND offensively without Carlos on the floor and although he is a positive on the defensive rebounding side, he's flat out terrible on the offensive glass. Defensive and offensive rebounding are all about effort.  Don't believe me?  

(See 1:20 mark of video as Rodman outworks Charles Barkley--Ed)

And just because I couldn't get enough, here’s more Dennis Rodman. 

So what's the point?  I want Boozer gone because the Bulls are most likely maxed out and have become like the older-looking San Antonio Spurs (but without any championships to show for it—Ed).  They are an extremely hard-working regular season team that just doesn't have an extra gear when it comes time for the playoffs.  Rose was supposed to provide that missing gear, but even that is in limbo as we go forward.  

But Andrea Bargnani?  This trade makes no sense to me at all since the team would only shed $3 million this year, but essentially will still be tied up in terms of the salary cap for the next few years as Bargnani has 3 years left on his deal.  This all stems from how cheap Jerry Reinsdorf is when it comes to the Bulls (currently, the Bulls have the 5^th highest payroll in the NBA—Ed).  The Bulls have NEVER-- let that sink in-- never paid the luxury tax in team history.  As the 2nd or 3rd largest market in the NBA (depending on who you ask) (Chicago ranks 3^rd in terms of population—Ed) it seems almost impossible that Jerry didn't owe David Stern a single dollar at the end of any season.  

Three thoughts occurred to me simultaneously:

• The Bulls really want to amnesty Boozer (not really, but it wouldn’t surprise us at this point—Ed)
• The Bulls are on pace to pay the luxury tax this year for the first time ever and Jerry really will do anything, short of fan mutiny, not to pay it
• The only thing that irritates Jerry more than paying the luxury tax is paying Boozer to play for another team if/when they amnesty him.  (Bulls are still liable to pay the contract even when it doesn't count against the cap).

These three statements are paradoxical in nature as the truth of one statement violates another.  The only path to basketball nirvana is to get a fair trade of talent for him…

…Oh, right, that's impossible because everyone knows the Bulls are only interested in saving money, hence Andrea Bargnani.  

Excuse me while I go searching for a wall to bang my head on…

More NBA content is available here. 

AN IDIOT'S GUIDE TO THE LOS ANGELES LAKERS' SEASON: Part II

Dan Plotsky

(Plotsky continues his assessment of the Los Angeles Lakers by offering more advise in terms of philosophical changes on offense, defense, and possible future trades. It is worth reiterating that Plotsky is not a Lakers' fan).

“Kirk Hinrich!” These were the only words Marv Albert and Steve Kerr could manage to spew out last night, as Captain Kirk effectively destroyed Steve Nash's ankles on every pick and roll situation.  It would be a disservice if I didn't touch on defense when talking about the L.A. Lakers.  Remember, the Lakers were supposed to be the better team; whereas, we found out, the Chicago Bulls were the better team.  

The chain reaction is simple: Nash jumps the pick over the top and as Hinrich drives the lane, Dwight Howard steps up to defend.  If Hinrich does his job right, he looks to the weak side under the hoop first behind Howard and then to the weak side wing as he penetrates.  The Bulls dominated the Lakers on this simple, offensive strategy using a combination of superior speed and floor spacing by taking Howard out of the play and scoring on the slow, Lakers’ defensive rotations.  

Next time, watch the Bulls frontcourt rotate under the basket.  Someone is always helping the helper and forces the opposing offense to take a bad shot or kick the ball back to the top of the key.  It's no mere coincidence the Lakers’ defense has taken a huge hit this year as Nash has been ineffective at stopping the ball around the three point line and it only gets worse when the Lakers play more athletic point guards like—oh, I don’t know--Russell Westbrook or Chris Paul.  

To combat this predicament, the Lakers have stuck Kobe on Nash's man when the match up is too one-sided for Nash to handle.  This defensive modification results in Kobe exerting more energy than normal and leaving less for the offensive side of the ball, which has led to his recent offensive struggles despite his most efficient season ever.  Throw in a coach who seldom plays a bench and this team is wearing down against athletic teams on a nightly basis.  

I offer three solutions:

·     Mike D'Antoni ditches his offense and commits to Pau Gasol and Howard both playing down low with both players passing out of the post and Nash running less penetration offense and spotting up to shoot more.  This is the most unlikely solution to happen as the Lakers would have to play Nash/Chris Duhon/Kobe/Gasol/Howard lineup.  They would need Steve Blake to come back from injury in order to do this.
·     They trade Gasol for a combination of athleticism and shooting which was the first rumored deal of Gasol for Josh Smith/Kyle Korver.  This would have been perfect if D'Antoni didn't crush Gasol's trade value (also, don’t take away the fact that Howard is from Georgia and the Hawks, albeit, would be hesitant to give up J-Smoove, have shown interest in bringing back Howard to his home state—Ed).  
·         They keep Gasol, move him back to center and deal Howard. This is the most intriguing idea because I know teams would very much love to roll the dice on Howard and leave the Lakers with good salary cap space when Gasol comes off the books next year.  The rumor would be Howard to the Brooklyn Nets, Brook Lopez to the Minnesota T’Wolves, and Kevin Love to the Lakers.  This gives the Lakers a younger rebounder who can also stretch the floor with 3-point range, while allowing Gasol to operate down low.  

 

I love it!  That is to say, if I were actually a Lakers’ fan.  

To read Part I of the Lakers' saga, click here.

NBA 2012-13 Fantasy Preview: THE GOODS

Felipe M

(The following are just quick thoughts about the upcoming NBA season based on fantasy basketball projections.  That is not to say that this is a fantasy basketball preview as I like to discuss the subject matter interchangeably and effortlessly with what's "really" going on in the NBA.  Also worth noting, my opinions are based on fantasy point, head-to-head leagues.  Sorry Roto-fans).

• Bedrock Players--If you want to have a successful season, the following players are prime players to build your squad around for this upcoming season (and if you're in a keeper league, for seasons to come):
• The list gets pretty obvious with LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Love getting top billing, but one player does not make a team (real or fantasy). Rounding out the top 12 is as follows:
• Josh Smith
• Deron Williams
• Rajon Rondo
• John Wall
• Russell Westbrook
• Carmelo Anthony
• Blake Griffin
• As mentioned having great support for your superstar player is key in determining whether your team will contend or struggle for this season.  The following players are borderline "franchise" players/2nd bananas on any fantasy team:
• Kobe Bryant--he's due for a dip in production, but Kobe is still Kobe and determination alone makes him a force to be reckoned with.
• Pau Gasol--In most leagues, he qualifies at both forward (power) and center and that versatility makes him a coveted player.
• Jeremy Lin--yes, Linsanity is alive and well in Houston.  You can't deny the great opportunity that has presented itself for the polarizing guard.
• LaMarcus Aldridge--Same peripherals as Gasol. 
• Kyrie Irving--If he keeps producing like he's projected to, he is a prime keeper for years to come and is ready to rack up the points this year as well. 
• Al Jefferson--Despite not being good at any particular thing, he can rack up the stats and makes a great complement player for any fantasy team.
• Dirk Nowitzki--The Godfather of the perimeter big men, he can still produce in Dallas.
• Other top players come with questions and issues (both on and off the court):
• Andrew Bynum--Arguably, the best offensive player at the center position, also comes with lots of baggage and injury concerns.  If he can overcome both issues, he can be a scoring machine. 
• DeMarcus Cousins--Quickly becoming this generation's version of Rasheed Wallace, if he can control his anger and stop with the bad attitude, his NBA stock can absolutely sky-rocket into galactic proportions.  He's athletic, highly talented, and a machine in the middle. 
• Dwyane Wade--From fantasy point superstar to descending into 2nd banana status, Wade is quickly aging.  He's a solid pick for this season, but in keeper leagues, you might want to trade him now and save yourself the headache for next season.
• Stephen Curry and Eric Gordon--Great shooters and scorers, but seem to always be hurt and have reputations of being fragile.
• Tony Parker and Tim Duncan--Highly talented players, but their team's priority is not for them to pad their stats, but to be ready for the playoffs and that hinders their production.
• Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis--As former owner of both of these players, they certainly can leave you frustrated, but when they get on fire, they're almost unstoppable.
• Other players worth mentioning:
• Ty Lawson and Jeff Teague-- Both quick point guards who can explode around the basket, but higher upside goes to Lawson
• Marc Gasol--Skill big man like his brother Pau, but not as explosive. 
• David Lee--Some "experts" think he's due for a drop-off, but somebody needs to get rebounds and points in the paint for Golden State.
• Rudy Gay--Memphis' best perimeter player.
• Brook Lopez--According to Shaq O'neal, he's the best big, true center in the NBA... on some days.
• Paul Millsap, Greg Monroe, and Joakim Noah--Solid big men who are very consistent safe to have on any roster: you know exactly what you're getting from all of these players.
• Andre Iguodala--Not the franchise player that he was supposed to be, but is playing for the right team in Denver. 
• Al Horford and Chris Bosh--Highly-skilled players who can leave many owners frustrated because they seem to always be playing out of position, but can rack up the points and rebounds. 

And that is a quick summary of my top 40 players coming into this NBA season. 

Up next, we take a look at players who are due for a downfall this upcoming NBA season.