MARDI GRAS MADNESS: Texas Power Drinkers

Felipe M

We continue on our reviews for our fantasy baseball league, Mardi Gras Madness.  Please take some time to read about The Evil Empire.

Up next is yet another team out of Lone Star State.  And apparently, they like to drink--a lot:

EAST DIVISION--Texas Power Drinkers 

BATTING LINEUP

Like: Matt Kemp has turned into a beast since 2010 in terms of counting stats.  He strikes out too much, but does enough to get on base and his power and speed makes him a legit player in both Roto and Points leagues.  Coming in for support are Billy Butler, Yadier Molina, Aaron Hill and Jason Heyward.

Dislike: Admittedly, out of desperation, I was thinking of picking up Erick Aybar as my SS options were disappearing at my draft.  Luckily, I didn’t have to.  Aybar is a pesky hitter, but comes equipped with a low on-base%. 

Nick Markakis will need to prove that he is still a
relevant player in fantasy baseball
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann)

Look Out For: Carl Crawford if it turns out that his stint as a Red Sox was just an aberration.  Many in the SABR community think that Crawford is declining at a dangerous pace, but for once I’m optimistic about a player.  New league, new scene, and a clean bill of health might return Crawford into a top hitter again.  Also, Kendry Morales in Seattle as they move the fences in.  He should be able to produce if he’s able to stay healthy for a full year.  And finally, Jeff Keppinger is a sneaky player to keep track of.  He qualifies everywhere on the infield except for SS.  He had a surprising year in 2012 and has been hitting the ball all spring long (at one point he was hitting well above .500--batting average). 

Bench: Keppinger will hold down 3B for the injured David Freese.  Hanley Ramirez is on the mend, but will surely replace either Aybar or Keppinger, depending on who’s struggling upon his return.  Currently, Nick Markakis is slotted as the DH, but if he can’t hit for a bit more power, I can see a scenario where both will share duties at that spot. 

2013 Hitting Projections
Player	Team	Pos	BB/K	AB/K	AB/HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB
Matt Kemp	Los Angeles	CF	0.41	3.83	17.20	0.366	0.533	0.899	19
Billy Butler	Kansas City	1B	0.61	5.98	23.99	0.374	0.495	0.869	2
Kendry Morales	Seattle	1B	0.30	4.38	22.03	0.326	0.464	0.790	0
Nick Markakis	Baltimore	RF	0.80	7.86	38.74	0.362	0.441	0.803	5
Aaron Hill	Arizona	2B	0.55	7.07	27.68	0.335	0.460	0.795	12

PITCHING

Like: King Felix Hernandez is the ace of this staff.  He will be supported by Doug Fister who has been great since being traded to Detroit.  I also like Mat Latos.  Even when he was traded to the Reds, I was still trying to draft him in all of my leagues last season because I believe in his abilities.  Then there’s Matt Moore who will look to take another step forward in his progression to become a legit, 1^st Tier SP.

Dislike: This team makes it too easy for me: UbaldoJimenez and Jason Vargas were good enough to make this squad.  Wow!  Luckily, this team has plenty of pitching depth where they’re not in desperate need for these two, mediocre, pitchers’ services.

Look Out For: There are a few candidates here.   Brett Anderson was struggling during the spring as he tried to overcome a neck injury.  When he’s on, he is a legit, 2^nd Tier pitcher.  Lance Lynn, if he is able to pitch like he did early in 2012, this team will have a pitching staff that will overwhelm opponents.  

2013 Pitching Projections
Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/9
Doug Fister	Detroit	3.63	6.65	1.83	9.21	1.23	0.81
Brett Anderson	Oakland	3.28	6.78	2.07	8.79	1.21	0.72
Lance Lynn	St. Louis	2.92	8.75	3.00	8.16	1.24	0.89

Drew Smyly was an interesting selection by this club.  Even though he was relegated to the bullpen, he is still pitching deep into spring games.  I was shocked to see that the Tigers did not send him down the Minors as it was reported early in the spring that Smyly would be starting in 2013, either in the Majors or Minors.  I can’t envision him as a SP in a Tigers’ uniform because the rotation is full of pitchers that can rack up the innings, but it’s clear that the Tigers are up to something. 

Finally, lurking in the Minors is Zach Wheeler who might be brought up sometime in 2013.  Selfishly, I would prefer sooner rather than later as I anxiously wait to see what this kid can do in the Majors.  As I mentioned before, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets wait until September like they did with Matt Harvey. 

Bullpen: As much as I’m shaken by last year’s roller-coaster ride that was Addison Reed, I think he will be a bit more stable in 2013.  After battling an infected tooth, Rafael Soriano seems to be ready to go for 2013.  In terms of K/BB, he rated middle of the pack among qualified closers in that category so there’s a slight concern there.  Put it another way, Glen Perkins ranks ahead of Soriano in that category.

PREDICTION: This club has themselves a good collection of players.  As always with this franchise, I’m highly impressed with the balance they are able to achieve in their lineup after every single draft.  This year, however, I have to caution my expectations of this team due to the fact that there are way too many “ifs” on this club.  “If this guy comes back healthy,” “if this guy can pitch like he’s supposed to,” “if this guy can bounce back,” “etc.”  It’s ok to gamble on one or two players whose stock fell for whatever reason, but when it becomes the basis on building your franchise for any upcoming season, it tends to hurt more than help you in the end.  

More fantasy baseball is available here.

You can view the other Mardi Gras Madness teams here. 

MAKING THE PITCH: St. Louis Cardinals

Felipe M

We take a look at the projected starting rotations and closer situations of every MLB team.  Of course, this will come from a fantasy perspective.  All cited stats are based on 2013 projections. 

Our preview of the Chicago White Sox can be read here. 

Let's see what the St. Louis Cardinals have in store for the upcoming season.

2013 Pitching Projections
Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/9
Adam Wainwright	St. Louis	3.65	8.17	2.24	8.29	1.17	0.71
Jaime Garcia	St. Louis	2.95	7.01	2.37	9.16	1.28	0.59
Lance Lynn	St. Louis	2.92	8.75	3.00	8.16	1.24	0.89
Shelby Miller	St. Louis	2.48	8.57	3.46	8.31	1.31	1.04
Jake Westbrook	St. Louis	1.77	5.24	2.95	9.43	1.38	0.67

As you can see, this list doesn't include Chris Carpenter, their closers, Joe Kelly or #3 Baseball Prospectus Cardinals' prospect, Carlos Martinez.  In a word, the Cards are LOADED at this position.  

Adam Wainwright is so good, he just received a 5-year contract extension.  If the Cards have faith in him and the numbers suggest a top-of-the-line pitcher, then you, the reader, should have faith in him.  I listed Wainwright as a top 10 pitcher for 2013.

I'm always down on Jaime Garcia because I've always viewed him as a typical, finesse, Cardinals pitcher.  But based on his decent K/9 and close to 3/1 K/BB ratio, he is a very useful pitcher in fantasy circles.  A 1.28 WHIP is elevated due to his pitching style, which ultimately gives up a lot of base-hits, but judging by his successful spring, he should be on every fantasy team right now.  Nonetheless, he's at least available in 15% of CBS leagues.  

Lance Lynn got off to a rocking start last season, but eventually malfunctioned as a starter and was demoted to the bullpen.  Based on his numbers, he should dominate hitters, but once I was comfortable enough to place him as a 2nd-tier pitcher, reports out of spring training show that he's been terrible.  Furthermore, he's lost weight and has changed his mechanics.  So when considering that transformation, it is skeptical that he can attain those projections, but even if his strikeouts drop to Jaime Garcia-levels, Lynn is still a good option to have on your pitching staff, just not good enough for owners to reach early for him.

I've never like Jake Westbrook, but he's found success on a Cardinals' team that embraces his pitching style.  I still would never consider drafting him or having him on my team, but he can eat up innings, control his walks and homeruns, and can get plenty of wins on a really good team.  

Finally! Shelby Miller wins the 5th rotation spot after a tough battle with Joe Kelly.  He did struggle in Triple-A last season, but he's been dominating the Minors beforehand.  Plus, immaturity was an issue last season in the Minors as well, but did enough to impress the Cards late in 2012 and definitely showed enough improvements this spring to have the Cardinals give him the job.  He is available in 28% of CBS leagues so if you need pitching help, Miller is definitely worth the roster spot.  

I've shared my thoughts about Jason Motte and thought he was an elite closer before he went down with an injury.  Obviously, Mitchell Boggs will replace him until Motte comes back.  I believe in the Cardinals' ability to develop pitchers and give them opportunities to succeed so Boggs should be a fine replacement.  He's already notched three saves this spring after manager Mike Matheny named him the closer on March 23rd.  In the meantime, you should handcuff these two together like I did.  

As mentioned, the Cardinals are loaded at this position and if one of these guys fall, I strongly urge to immediately check out the replacement pitchers because they always find a way to find guys who succeed when their number is called.

More MLB content is available here.