BRAGGING RIGHTS 2013: Felipe's Dreadful Draft Experience

Jay Bruce will be counted on to provide power and run-production in 2013.
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's FIELD OF FOTOS)

Felipe M

I have been playing in a keeper league for the last 10 seasons or so.  The League is Mardi Gras Madness.  My team name: Black Hole Army named after the villains of this video game:

Sunday night was the draft from hell for my keeper league's annual draft.  Aside from the fact that the league’s draft module kept breaking down on us, it seemed every time I was getting ready to draft somebody, another owner would swoop in and swipe that player out of my hands.  So I ended up selecting a lot of players that I really was not excited to have on my team, but these will be the guys I will be going to war with in this 2013 season:

KEEPERS

• Carlos Santana--C
• Edwin Encarnacion—1B
• Ian Kinsler—2B
• Ryan Braun--LF
• Allen Craig--RF
• Jay Bruce--DH
• Jason Motte--P

I actually like these players as they were the core to my run at the title last season only to fall short in the championship game.  Santana is an elite backstop and still young enough to fulfill potential.  Encarnacion and Craig had breakout years last season and their respective teams consider them part of their future.  Kinsler is still one of the best 2B in all of baseball.  Braun is arguably one of the best hitters in the league.  Meanwhile, Bruce can supply points by the truckloads due to his power bat and Motte can rack up the saves because of his power arm.  Unfortunately, Motte is expected to be placed on the DL to start the season with elbow issues—bummer.  Recently picked up Mitchell Boggs off waivers to offset the Motte injury. 

So coming into the draft, I have a few positions on offense to fill out, but I would have to focus on pitching, pitching, and pitching.  Will this strategy pay off?  It would have to because technically, coming into this draft, I have no pitchers.  Here are the results:

DRAFTED PLAYERS

• Martin Prado—3B
• Jordan Zimmerman—P
• B.J. Upton—CF
• Desmond Jennings—CF
• J.J. Putz—P
• Huston Street—P
• Brandon McCarthy—P
• Tommy Milone—P
• Tim Hudson—P
• Andy Pettitte—P
• Jedd Gyorko—3B
• Danny Espinosa—SS
• Gavin Floyd—P
• A.J. Griffin—P
• Ricky Nolasco—P

Clearly, other than Zimmerman (whom I was thinking of keeping instead of Motte until I read reports of ‘Z’ having issues with a “dead arm” earlier in the spring), a lot of the starting pitchers that I drafted this year are not my type of pitchers.  But what can I do?  All elite pitchers were kept by other teams coming into this draft.  So I was stuck selecting pitch-to-contact pitchers with good control.  Not very happy with the pitching staff, but I did what I could under the circumstances. 

I’m also not very happy with being stuck selecting both B.J.Upton and Jennings, but in the 3^rd and 4^th round, they seemed to be the best and most explosive players available in those two rounds. I’m not high on either one of them, but hopefully the gamble on picking the low patience/contact rate hitters will pay off in the end.

As you guys should know by now, I really like Prado and I even attempted to trade for him in the offseason, but couldn’t make a deal in time to beat our league’s offseason trade deadline.  So when I saw him available with the 11^th pick overall, I did away with my “select nothing but pitchers” strategy and jumped all over the very steady, high patience/contact rate hitter.  He also qualifies at LF so the versatility is an added bonus.

Putz and Street are two of my favorite relievers in the game and somehow, I’m always lucky enough to at least have one of these pitchers in one of my teams for the last three seasons.  In my Yahoo! league, I had both of them on my team, en route to a championship game loss.  I had Street in this keeper league last season as well.  So I was more than happy to see these two closers available to bring some sort of respectability to my pitching staff.

Not happy with the Espinosa pick, but he was my “last line of defense”shortstop.  I was actually going after Elvis Andrus in the 3^rd round, but he was immediately grabbed in the middle of the 2^nd round.  Ian Desmond was my second choice, but somehow, he also got picked up in that same round as well.  I was so desperate for a SS, I was even thinking of picking Derek Jeter, but our resident New York Yankee fan picked him up in the 13^th round.  Guess I’ll be keeping a very close eye on the waivers this season for another shortstop.

Before picking Espinosa, I rolled the dice and reached forGyorko.  As you guys should know, I’ve been excited about Gyorko for awhile now.  Whether I reached too early for him is debatable, but seeing how there were only a handful of players that I would consider selecting before him, I think I made the right choice going with Gyorko’s upside.  And he will eventually qualify at 2B as well and I have Prado manning 3B for now so Gyorko will be riding my bench for awhile until he shows that he can handle big league pitching.

Not really happy with my team, especially my pitching staff, but the best part about it is that it forced me to step out of my comfort zone and go after pitchers I would have never considered drafting in years past.  Last year, I did a good job in picking the pitchers that fit my paradigm as to what a fantasy pitcher should be.  The result last season?  I had the worst pitching staff in our league last year (I still don't know how I reached the championship game in 2012, but that's baseball).  So hopefully, this change in thought will bring me different results and put me over the hump and help me earn that elusive baseball title. 

I really like the batting lineup I have assembled: Encarnacion and Craig are not flukes, I feel this is Santana’s year to blow up, Gyorko and Prado at the hot corner, Jennings and Upton sharing duties in CF, Espinosa is a 15/15 guy, Bruce can light up the scoreboard with his power, and of course, they will all be led by Kinsler and Braun throughout the season. 

So that’s my team—what’s yours?

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CATCH!: 2013 Early Pre-Rankings--CF

How far down will Curtis Granderson drop on this list?

Felipe M

LF pre-rankings are available here. 

GREEN = on my keeper team.

TOP TIER

1. Andrew McCutchen: The time is now for "Cutch" to take over the top spot at CF after waiting patiently for his turn to arrive.  I don't even have to explain myself on this one.  With respect to Mike Trout's raw abilities and skills, McCutchen, at this stage of his career, is the more complete hitter and, therefore, occupies this year's top spot at center.  

2. Matt Kemp: With all due respect to Trout, it's hard to ignore a guy who is projected to produce an OPS of .907 (per ESPN).  By comparison, Trout is projected by the worldwide leader to obtain an OPS of .823.  

3. Mike Trout: There he is!  This year, Trout is projected to produce an OPS of, on average, .871.  He's also needs to work on his approach at the plate.  Perhaps if I were solely just concentrating on Roto-style ball, I would consider putting Trout at #1 (27 homers/48 steals), but I have to consider his unpolished discipline at the plate for the players who have to take strikeouts and on-base% into effect.  "Cutch" and Kemp are projected to have a higher on-base% for 2013.  

4. Josh Hamilton: Projected to have better power production than Trout, Hamilton is even less disciplined at the plate than Trout and also comes with plenty of baggage (injuries, off-the-field issues, etc.).  However, new team with established stars on the club should make him a happier, even more productive hitter. 

SECOND TIER

5. Bryce Harper: Could possibly be a 25/25 guy, but, like Trout, he needs to improve his discipline at the plate.  Harper is still developing his game despite making an All-Star appearance and winning Rookie of the Year honors.  That's a scary thought to have a player that's established like Harper, yet is still in the process of improving to greater heights.  

6. Adam Jones: I gave up on Jones a long time ago.  Even as his power finally developed as promised, it's hard to ignore his terrible discipline at the plate.  However, his adequate contact rate helps him get on base and provide a very heatlhy batting average.  He'll also throw in 15 stolen bases.

Yoenis Cespedes turned out to be as good as advertised.

7. Yoenis Cespedes: I attempted to draft Cespedes in the draft last year, but he went one spot ahead of me in the 6th round (which really is the 13th round in our league after taking into account the 7 keepers one must keep).  He can easily be a 25/25 player at his best in 2013 and his adequate contact rate keeps him at a steady batting average.  If he can imrpove on his discipline, he can easily be an elite player at his position. 

8. Jacoby Ellsbury: He can easily be an elite player with his speed/power combo, but injuries have forced owners to look elsewhere for healthier alternatives.  ESPN is calling his injuries "fluky," but a player that plays hard like Ellsbury needs to understand how to pace himself as well.  There's a thin line between being a "hustling" player and being "Eric Byrnes"--a guy who just goes at full speed just for the sake of showing his manager that he can go full speed at all times.  Ellsbury is not a scrub like Byrnes.  But he does need to be healthy to produce and be on the field to produce the monster numbers that we know he can attain.  

9. Curtis Granderson: I was ready to relegate Granderson into THIRD TIER status, but it's very hard to drop him out of the top 10 at the position.  I despise the fact that he has terrible plate discipline and strikeout totals, but sometimes those counting stats are so impressive, that all other stats that gauge a player's contact/hit, and patience can be thrown out the window.  As long as Granderson plays at Yankee Stadium, we can forgive him for being a quasi-all-or-nothing hitter.  He is projected to miss the enitre month of May.

10. B.J. Upton: And then there's the overrated Upton.  The counting stats are great, but even Roto players will be pulling their hair at his awful batting average.  His low contact rate, poor discipline, and laughable on-base% would make him practically useless in Head-2-Head/Points' leagues if it wasn't for the fact that his 30/30 capabilities can provide for an explosive outburst of production from time to time.  

THIRD TIER

The rest of the field: 

• Austin Jackson (with a terrible approach at the plate and a high strikeout rate, how he is able to project to have a .348 on-base% is beyond me)
• Desmond Jennings (still needs to figure it out at the plate, but when he gets on base, he can fly)
• Alejandro De Aza (adequate contact rate and can actually get on-base and provide 25+ stolen bases and 10+ homeruns).
• Angel Pagan (modest on-base% is made up by good discipline and contact rate. Can get you 30 stolen bases)
• Shane Victorino (age and decrease in production is a concern, but still a solid play with a projected respectable on-base% of .337 and 28 steals).
• Dexter Fowler (potential 15/15 player, but very impatient at the plate. Projected OPS of .812 is not too shabby though)
• Michael Bourn (adequate contact rate will help him achieve projection of 45 stolen bases)
• Carlos Gomez (15/30 player, but terrible on-base skills will hurt in both Roto and Points' leagues alike)
• Coco Crisp (decent patience and contact skills will should mean an improved batting average and on-base% alike. Power seems to be waning, but is still a good source of steals)

Keep an eye on:

• Adam Eaton (Until I see that he has "officially" won a starting spot, I'm not moving him from this spot).
• Ben Revere (can rack up the steals, and contact rate plus speed makes him a tough out despite low on-base%)
• Drew Stubbs (Roto leagues only)

All photos courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos.

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CATCH!: 2013 Early Pre-Rankings--LF

New uniform, but Hamilton still packs that same, sweet-swingin' bat of his.
And he also comes with a lot of baggage.
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos)

Felipe M

To view our 3B pre-rankings, click here. 

Since I play in a league that requires to draft a LF, CF, and RF, I thought I would rank the outfield in this manner.  

TOP TIER

1. Ryan Braun: Another year of PED allegations is haunting yet another offseason for Braun.  However, until there is something more concrete, apropos to possible punishment by the Commissioner's Office, there simply is no reason to drop Braun from the top spot.
2. Mike Trout: Phenom extraordinaire, Trout has proven to live up to the hype that was bestowed upon him last season.  Would like to see him improve his approach at the plate, but the raw projections are predicting another huge year for the young Angel.
3. Carlos Gonzalez: Injury concerns are always a concern for CarGo, but he's only 27 and is ready to enter his prime of his career.  Just like Trout, would like to see more patience at the plate, but his raw numbers alone, along with his age, are good enough to place him in this tier.
4. Josh Hamilton: Well, let's see: wrong side of 30, injury-prone outfielder, bad 2012, second half, choked in the postseason, and there's always that chance that he can be easily swayed to revert back to a dark past (alcoholism, drug addiction, etc.).  Nevertheless, when he has all of those issues under control, the guy can definitely rake.  However, as one will notice, he's not even the best LF on his own team.

SECOND TIER

5. Matt Holliday: Just like Hamilton, Holliday can still rake, but unlike Hamilton, he's proven to be a gamer as he has been able to play through a variety of injuries that would derail an average player.  However, at 33,  those injuries might be catching up to him.  Add to the fact that he struck out more times than ever in 2012 and his BB:K was it's lowest since 2007 and I just feel obligated to warn you, the reader, to be wary of this guy.  However, he's a "safe risk" to have on your team, but  a risk nonetheless.  If I were stuck in a situation where Holliday was the best player available in my slot, I would highly likely go after a younger, up-and-coming player at that position to hand-cuff with Holliday.
6. Yoenis Cespedes: Cespedes proved to be a major factor last season with the Oakland A's. He could threaten to have a 20/20 season in 2013, but the potential, raw, power numbers that he can produce is enough of a reason to draft this player.
7. Alex Gordon: Gordon has turned around his career after it looked like he would become a "bust" for the Kansas City Royals.  His raw, counting stats are nothing to brag about, but a respectable contact rate to go along with a projected OPS between .820-.840 makes Gordon a solid pick at this position.
8. Martin Prado: Like mentioned before for the 3B, there is nothing flashy about Prado, but what he lacks in power, he more than makes up for it in versatility, superb contact rate, and a stout patience at the plate. 
9. Josh Willingham: His power is never in question as he has proven to possess ample amounts of it at three, different, pitcher-friendly  ballparks.  Age is a concern as he recently turned 34 years-old and injuries are magnified with Willingham; more than the other 30+ year-olds who've had a history of injuries.  However, when healthy, Willingham is a legit source of power of the 30/100 variety.

THIRD TIER

The rest of the field:

• Desmond Jennings (who can put up good, solid numbers, but low on-base% and OPS means many slumps and struggles.
• Melky Cabrera (PED use)
• Mark Trumbo (even in the OF, there are better options than this strike-zone illiterate)
• Brett Gardner (speed, but no power)
• Shane Victorino (age, decrease in production)
• Jason Kubel (age, decrease in production)
• Carl Crawford (injuries, dramatic decrease in production)
• Michael Morse (power, strikes out too much, jury is still out)
• Carlos Quentin (power, but injury concerns)
• Logan Morrison (power, but injury concerns)
• David Murphy (solid numbers, but in platoon system)
• Ichiro Suzuki (speed, but lacks power, age has sapped his contact rate)
• Juan Pierre (speed, but lacks power, age concerns)
• Ryan Ludwick (power, but age concerns)
• Lucas Duda (good potential, but awful on defense)

As you can see, the Third Tier at LF is larger than the other positions, but doesn't provide greater depth at the position, per se.  It offers a good mix of power and speed, but for a lot of these players, except for Jennings, the attributes are always exclusive from each other.  There are a lot of question marks with all of these players, but at their best, they can become solid players.  At their worst, they can cost you the season. Choose wisely.

Keep an eye on:

• Starling Marte (until I see that he's been officially named the starting LF for the Pittsburgh Pirates, I'm not ready to move him up to the Third Tier yet.  And even so, he will struggle mightily in 2013).
• Matt Joyce (in daily leagues when he's hitting against right-handers)
• Jonny Gomes (in daily leagues when he's hitting against lefties)

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CF rankings are available here.