HIRED ARMS: The Dynamite Mine

Felipe M

We've discussed pitchers to keep tabs on the waiver wire because despite their struggles, their offseason projections or abilities are worth a second look.  

We've also looked at the pitchers that have seen a big increase in ownership in the last week or so and try to decipher if they're early success is based on luck or true capabilities.  

The following list are pitchers that are owned in less than 30% of CBS fantasy baseball leagues.  We explained that a lot of these pitchers may not be worth picking up on your team, but are worth a longer look as their cheap price may turn into a big value.  Sometimes looking for treasure requires a lot of digging.  The following list of pitchers may prove to be real diamonds in the rough:

Jose Quintana--Chicago White Sox--31% today; 25% yesterday:  We've been suggesting to keep an eye on Quintana since the spring.  Well, now would be the time to get on the bandwagon.  As much as I wanted to hate on him for being a finesse pitcher in 2012, his Minor League numbers and spring training performance persuaded me to give him another chance.  Despite a disastrous 1st start against the Seattle Mariners, he bounced back at Cleveland, allowing only 1 hit and striking out 7 batters.  So far, he's accrued 10 K's in 11 innings pitched and has a WHIP of 1.00.  It's early, but now would be the time to roll the dice on the lefty.

Miguel Gonzalez--Baltimore Orioles--30%: After winning his first start of the season, he struggled mightily with control against the New York Yankees.  He proved to be a flyball pitcher with some concern with the long ball, but his track record in the Minors shows that he has good control and can post decent strikeout totals.  His numbers look terrible so far in 2013, but based on his 2012 campaign, he's definitely worth scouting some more.

Jorge de la Rosa and Juan Nicasio--Colorado Rockies--25% and 14%, respectively: Both pitchers have pitched 16 innings each, but one pitcher has pitched well, but is only 1-1; the other pitcher is 2-0, but has not been impressive so far this season.  A look back at our Rockies' pitching preview will show that I had higher hopes for Nicasio, but soured on de la Rosa.  Well, the complete opposite has occurred as de la Rosa has pitched fairly well, especially in his last two starts, sporting a 7.2 K/9 and a WHIP of 1.16.  It feels like 2011 again!  

On the other hand, Nicasio has been inconsistent, but has done enough to be 2-0 so far this season.  He has been laboring with control and command issues, but even more discouraging is his his low 9 strikeouts.  However, his projection numbers and potential to post high strikeout totals make him work monitoring.  Furthermore, Nicasio has not gotten into a rhythm after 3 starts as he's been pitching every 6 or 7 days, heretofore.  I still would like to see how he performs with a more ideal routine for starting pitchers. 

Wily Peralta--Milwaukee Brewers--24%: Peralta received a lot of hype coming into this season as he was a highly touted prospect (Brewers' #1 prospect per Baseball Prospectus) who pitched pretty well in 2012.  Despite the high praise, he still was coming off a 2012 season full of control and command problems.  Those problems have followed him this year as well.  However, he's worth monitoring because of his pedigree and potential to rack up the K's.  

Eric Stults--San Diego Padres--18%: I was not a fan of a single pitcher for the Padres entering this season, but Stults has pitched well so far this season.  A 5:1 K:BB ratio, he still has a high WHIP of 1.44 due to the 20 base-hits he's allowed in his 3 pitching starts.  He is a flyball pitcher and has given up 2 homeruns all ready, but his Minor League numbers show that he's capable of posting good strikeout numbers.  Again, if it wasn't for the high WHIP, his ownership rate would be a lot higher than 18%, but that might change drastically if he's able to best Barry Zito and the Giants in his next start on Sunday.

Zach McAllister--Cleveland Indians--19%: Another pitcher who I was down on earlier this spring, McAllister has done very well in his 2 starts this season.  He has yet to give up a walk and has only given up 3 earned runs.  The strikeout rate is low, but is pretty much on par with his Minor League numbers.  But he has pitched well enough to be 2-0, having to face Matt Moore in his first start and getting the best of Chris Sale in his second start. He is a flyball pitcher, but has yet to give up a homerun, but judging by the low strikeouts, he has solidified his reputation as a pitch-to-contact hurler.  His next two starts are scheduled against Jon Lester and Chris Sale so you may want to hold off on McAllister.  But if you believe he can continue to sustain this much control, by all means.  

Carlos Marmol--Chicago Cubs--30%: I have been hating on Marmol for the last couple of seasons or so, but has pitched better since being demoted from the closer's spot.  In his last 4 innings, he has yet to give up a run.  He is still struggling with control and has allowed two hits in that same time span, but that's a lot better than what we saw in the first week of the season.  The overall numbers are still bad, but there is a glimmer of hope that he may start turning his season around soon.  

Like I mentioned before, these pitchers are not guaranteed to turn their seasons around, but based on past performances and how a lot of owners have ignored them at this juncture of the season, these guys are the ultimate sleepers and their progress should be monitored.  

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LINE DRIVES: v1.0

Suddenly, San Diego has a launching pad for hitters.
(photo courtesy of Felipe M)

Felipe M

I'll be sharing my random thoughts on the MLB games from April 9, 2013.

SO MUCH FOR A PITCHERS' PARK

The Houston Astros beat the Seattle Mariners 16-9 at Safeco Field.  The San Diego Padres won at Petco Park, scoring 9 runs.  We have been waiting in anticipation to see how the changes in dimensions at these two parks would alter offensive production.  Right away, we're seeing changes.

Taking a look back at 2012, only three times did we see teams put up nine or more runs, in one game, last year at Safeco (roughly once every 27 games).  The most runs that one team had accumulated in one game was on October 3, 2012 when the Mariners blanked the Angels, 12-0 (against Jered Weaver, no less).  The most combined runs at Safeco last season occurred on April 17, 2012 when the Mariners and Indians scored 17 total runs.  27 runs were scored between the Astros and Mariners last night.  

Petco was better last year: seven was the number of times teams had scored 9 or more runs in one game last year.  The highs came on September 16, 2012 when the Padres scored a season high at home of 12 runs and they and the Rockies accumulated 23 runs total in that game.  However, only their first game in 2013 and the Padres have all ready scored 9 runs in one game.  

One game does not make a full MLB season, but it's safe to say that after Tuesday's match-ups, both ballparks, in terms of offense, are off to a good start.  

ASTRO WOES

Speaking of the Astros, the 16 runs were the most they have scored since they scored 18 runs in August of 2010.  The Astros defeated the Cardinals, 18-4 in St. Louis.  In that game, none of the Astros hit a homerun in, but they did hit 4 doubles and 1 triple.  SS Angel Sanchez tallied 6 RBI.  This year, the Astros are 0-6 when scoring fewer than 3 runs.  They have all ready failed to score more than 3 runs in 75% of their games.  Bad sign.

METS AT PHILLIES

The Phillies' struggles in the starting rotation have been well-documented as Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay have not pitched up to par early this season.  Thankfully, they have Cliff Lee who pitched a great game against the Mets last night.  It also helped that the Phillies' bats came alive after being shutdown by pitching phenom, Matt Harvey on Monday.  

Unfortunately, it all came at the expense of Mets' pitcher Dillon Gee who had command issues all night.  So far this year, Gee has pitched 9 and a 1/3 innings and has the following stats after 2 starts: 5.8 K/9; 2.9 BB/9 AND HR/9; 12.6 H/9; 1.71 WHIP.  All of this while inducing  more groundouts than flyouts.  We've mentioned how well Gee pitched last season before being shut down for the year because of injury.  But that's the thing about pitchers like Gee.  He has potential to rack up the strikeouts, but deep down, he is a pitch-to-contact pitcher.  When pitchers like Gee don't have their best stuff and can't fight through it, they'll have nights like these.  Should be very interesting how he bounces back in his next start.  

NOW WE CAN START THE SEASON

Washington Nationals' 1B Adam LaRoche had zero hits.  Now he has two hits after his team beat the White Sox last night.  Both of his hits are homeruns.  Talk about an "all-or-nothing" approach.  LaRoche has always had a reputation for being a slow starter for his teams so it's not surprising that's he's off to the slowest of starts this year as well.  But he is struggling so bad that in the game where he hit 2 homers, he also struck out twice.  A deeper look shows that LaRoche, this season has been swinging for more strikes than in years past.  Of the 57% of pitches that are called for strikes, 24% have been of the swing-and-miss variety--his career average is 17%.  Only 12% of those pitches are actually called strikes because of foul balls--he averages 27%.  

So his timing, clearly, is not there yet, but getting back to his all-or-nothing approach, he's hit a lot more flyballs than groundballs so far this season so when he does make contact, he's looking to drive the ball into the air, but only 17% of his contact have been line drives (career line-drive% of 20%).  Because of this approach, he's suffering the worst Balls-in-Play% of his career (only 56% compared to a career 64%) and of those flyballs, 20% are not leaving the infield.  That's a lot of pop outs.  Will have to keep tabs on this guy and reconvene next week for an update.  

PICK YOUR POISON

If you can only have one closer on your team, who would it be: Carlos Marmol  or John Axford?

Outside of strikeouts, Marmol has struggled mightily with control and looks like he's pitching batting practice when he comes out of the bullpen.  Hitters have posted an OPS of 1.490.  Yikes!  It also doesn't help that Marmol is a flyball pitcher who can't produce outs via the flyout (most of his outs this season have come by way of groundouts).  His line-drive% against is 29% and it doesn't help that 27% of the strikes that he throws are put into play (above career average).  Obviously, hitters aren't being fooled or deceived by his pitches as Marmol only has a 13% in swinging-strike%.  And he gets ahead of the hitters more times than not.  55% of the time he throws a first-pitch strike.  32% of hitters see themselves down 0-2 in the count (much higher than his 2012 rate).  But as mentioned before, it's like he's pitching batting practice out there as these hitters, so far, are hungry when they see him out there--Marmol's contact percentage is a high, 80%!

And then there's Axford: he has a line-drive% against of 53%, OPS against of 1.828, a whopping 41% of his strikes are put in play (about twice his career average).  His contact% is much lower than Marmol's however and has a higher swinging-strikes% than Marmol (22%).    Only 19% of hitters see themselves at an 0-2 count.  However, he puts himself at a disadvantage by giving hitters a 3-0 count, 14% of the time (well above his norm).  

So of the two, who has a better chance to rebound?  The numbers are absolutely horrendous and I was trying to look for positives and couldn't find much.  If I have to pick one that is most likely to improve as the season progresses, it's probably Marmol.  At least he's getting ahead of the count more often than Axford.  Maybe it's a sign.  Or maybe it's not.  

And on that sour note...

#BrewersCubs thinking trade now: #marmolfor #axford straight up? #Tradetalk
— Felipe M (@pathological_h8) April 8, 2013

More MLB content is available here.  

MAKING THE PITCH: Chicago Cubs

Will the Cubs win a lot more games in 2013?
(photo courtesy of Sharon P. Mancia)

Felipe M

We take a look at the projected starting rotations and closer situations of every MLB team.  Of course, this will come from a fantasy perspective.  All cited stats are based on 2013 projections.  

Check out the Colorado Rockies pitching staff, here. 

This is a bit personal, however.  As you may or may not know, the Chicago Cubs are my team (along with the Chicago White Sox).  But the bitter apathy and comical season that was the 2012 Cubs had one silver lining: at least the starting pitching was good enough to make them somewhat respectable.  This season, however, trying to figure out this team has been nothing but a major headache.  And I'm not even talking about their closer situation!  Not because they're a lot worse than last year; it's because they have so many potential starters, it's difficult to figure out who's a legit starter, and who will only be holding down the fort until Matt Garza and Scott Baker come back.  The Cubs had an impressive offseason picking up a lot of pitchers.  But from a fantasy standpoint, it's very frustrating to get an accurate gauge on these guys.  

Yesterday, the Cubs outlined their pitching rotation for the start of the season, but their forecast is still not any clearer than it was on Wednesday.  Therefore, I'm only taking a close look at the 3 pitchers who will be there, for certain, on the regular rotation in 2013.

PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

1. Jeff Samardzija
• Good: 8.82 K/9: need we say more?  He also has overpowering stuff that helps limit the base-hits (H/9 of 7.98).  
• Bad: Has a little Kerry Wood in him; he won't give up many hits, but he'll give up plenty of walks (BB/9 3.78).  That brings his WHIP projection to 1.31.  Ouch!
2. Matt Garza
• Good: 8.43 K/9 and an approximate K/BB of 3/1 make him a legit pitcher in any format.
• Bad: Injuries and lack of run support have haunted him, especially since becoming a Cub.  1.13 HR/9 is nothing to fret about, but on those days that the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field, might prove to be disastrous.  Matter of fact, Garza has a history of giving up a lot of homeruns and he's a career flyball pitcher.  However, based on his Groundouts/Flyouts ratio as a Cub, suggest that he is improving on forcing more groundouts than flyballs.
3. Edwin Jackson
• Good: One of the nastiest pitchers out there, Jackson is supposed to sport a K/9 of 7.73.  And after having a reputation of being a wild pitcher, he is projected to have a BB/9 of 2.81.  He won't hurt himself with the longball either (HR/9 of 0.92).
• Bad: 1.29 WHIP is a bit high.  Despite the improvements in the last 3 seasons, Jackson can still come off as a bit unpredictable as a starting pitcher.  

CLOSERs

1. Carlos Marmol
• Good: 12.95 K/9 and 0.68 HR/9 is what makes him a good closer.  He's almost unhittable (H/9 of 6.95. Craig Kimbrel is better at 6.49).
• Bad: Unfortunately, Marmol has a tough time controlling his walks (BB/9 of 6.68).  He seems to have trouble with command of his slider as batters are not biting on it like they were before.  The walks raise his WHIP to an alarming 1.52.  Currently, the Cubs are desperately trying to deal him.
2. Kyuji Fujikawa
• Good: He has enough experience at the role as he's racked up plenty of saves back in Japan.  Baseball America ranks him as the team's #9 prospect.  
• Bad: Tough to gauge if and how a pitcher from another league will be able to streamline success to the Majors.  His projections seem to project him as a low-level, second-tier closer.  The Cubs seem to like him enough for the 9th inning job as he will no doubt move up to that role as soon as they deal Marmol.

FANTASY ADVICE

The other pitchers involved in this claustrophobia-like starting rotation are Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva, and Travis Wood.  I hate Feldman so I'm not even going to bother with him.  I've always liked Wood, but can be very inconsistent at times.  

The intriguing guy of the group is Villanueva.  In 2010, he was exclusively coming out of the bullpen for the Milwaukee Brewers, but last season with the Toronto Blue Jays, he posted impressive numbers as both a reliever and a starter.  He posted impressive strikeout totals and an adequate WHIP.  Projections from various publications show that he's expected to continue with the impressive strikeout rates, but WHIP is ranged between 1.25 and 1.45.  Nevertheless, if he can control the walks and the H/9 numbers, he can become a deep sleeper for at least the first month of the season.

Scott Baker is a flyball pitcher who has a history of giving up a lot of homeruns.  However, he is known to do a great job of controlling his walks and can post respectable strikeout totals (career K/9 of 7.23).  If he can come back without any issues from Tommy John surgery, he can prove to be a useful pitcher in 2013.

The Cubs did a good job acquiring pitchers that can post good strikeout totals, but they all come with baggage: control, injuries, spells of inconsistencies, lack of run support etc.  Nevertheless, I would be comfortable drafting any of these pitchers to fill in the middle of my rotation, but I wouldn't reach to put any of these guys at my top 3 slots.  

Obviously, the closer situation becomes more clear as soon as they find someone willing to deal with Marmol.  I would still take a wait-and-see approach on Fujikawa, though.

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