MARDI GRAS MADNESS: Texas Power Drinkers

Felipe M

We continue on our reviews for our fantasy baseball league, Mardi Gras Madness.  Please take some time to read about The Evil Empire.

Up next is yet another team out of Lone Star State.  And apparently, they like to drink--a lot:

EAST DIVISION--Texas Power Drinkers 

BATTING LINEUP

Like: Matt Kemp has turned into a beast since 2010 in terms of counting stats.  He strikes out too much, but does enough to get on base and his power and speed makes him a legit player in both Roto and Points leagues.  Coming in for support are Billy Butler, Yadier Molina, Aaron Hill and Jason Heyward.

Dislike: Admittedly, out of desperation, I was thinking of picking up Erick Aybar as my SS options were disappearing at my draft.  Luckily, I didn’t have to.  Aybar is a pesky hitter, but comes equipped with a low on-base%. 

Nick Markakis will need to prove that he is still a
relevant player in fantasy baseball
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann)

Look Out For: Carl Crawford if it turns out that his stint as a Red Sox was just an aberration.  Many in the SABR community think that Crawford is declining at a dangerous pace, but for once I’m optimistic about a player.  New league, new scene, and a clean bill of health might return Crawford into a top hitter again.  Also, Kendry Morales in Seattle as they move the fences in.  He should be able to produce if he’s able to stay healthy for a full year.  And finally, Jeff Keppinger is a sneaky player to keep track of.  He qualifies everywhere on the infield except for SS.  He had a surprising year in 2012 and has been hitting the ball all spring long (at one point he was hitting well above .500--batting average). 

Bench: Keppinger will hold down 3B for the injured David Freese.  Hanley Ramirez is on the mend, but will surely replace either Aybar or Keppinger, depending on who’s struggling upon his return.  Currently, Nick Markakis is slotted as the DH, but if he can’t hit for a bit more power, I can see a scenario where both will share duties at that spot. 

2013 Hitting Projections
Player	Team	Pos	BB/K	AB/K	AB/HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB
Matt Kemp	Los Angeles	CF	0.41	3.83	17.20	0.366	0.533	0.899	19
Billy Butler	Kansas City	1B	0.61	5.98	23.99	0.374	0.495	0.869	2
Kendry Morales	Seattle	1B	0.30	4.38	22.03	0.326	0.464	0.790	0
Nick Markakis	Baltimore	RF	0.80	7.86	38.74	0.362	0.441	0.803	5
Aaron Hill	Arizona	2B	0.55	7.07	27.68	0.335	0.460	0.795	12

PITCHING

Like: King Felix Hernandez is the ace of this staff.  He will be supported by Doug Fister who has been great since being traded to Detroit.  I also like Mat Latos.  Even when he was traded to the Reds, I was still trying to draft him in all of my leagues last season because I believe in his abilities.  Then there’s Matt Moore who will look to take another step forward in his progression to become a legit, 1^st Tier SP.

Dislike: This team makes it too easy for me: UbaldoJimenez and Jason Vargas were good enough to make this squad.  Wow!  Luckily, this team has plenty of pitching depth where they’re not in desperate need for these two, mediocre, pitchers’ services.

Look Out For: There are a few candidates here.   Brett Anderson was struggling during the spring as he tried to overcome a neck injury.  When he’s on, he is a legit, 2^nd Tier pitcher.  Lance Lynn, if he is able to pitch like he did early in 2012, this team will have a pitching staff that will overwhelm opponents.  

2013 Pitching Projections
Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/9
Doug Fister	Detroit	3.63	6.65	1.83	9.21	1.23	0.81
Brett Anderson	Oakland	3.28	6.78	2.07	8.79	1.21	0.72
Lance Lynn	St. Louis	2.92	8.75	3.00	8.16	1.24	0.89

Drew Smyly was an interesting selection by this club.  Even though he was relegated to the bullpen, he is still pitching deep into spring games.  I was shocked to see that the Tigers did not send him down the Minors as it was reported early in the spring that Smyly would be starting in 2013, either in the Majors or Minors.  I can’t envision him as a SP in a Tigers’ uniform because the rotation is full of pitchers that can rack up the innings, but it’s clear that the Tigers are up to something. 

Finally, lurking in the Minors is Zach Wheeler who might be brought up sometime in 2013.  Selfishly, I would prefer sooner rather than later as I anxiously wait to see what this kid can do in the Majors.  As I mentioned before, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets wait until September like they did with Matt Harvey. 

Bullpen: As much as I’m shaken by last year’s roller-coaster ride that was Addison Reed, I think he will be a bit more stable in 2013.  After battling an infected tooth, Rafael Soriano seems to be ready to go for 2013.  In terms of K/BB, he rated middle of the pack among qualified closers in that category so there’s a slight concern there.  Put it another way, Glen Perkins ranks ahead of Soriano in that category.

PREDICTION: This club has themselves a good collection of players.  As always with this franchise, I’m highly impressed with the balance they are able to achieve in their lineup after every single draft.  This year, however, I have to caution my expectations of this team due to the fact that there are way too many “ifs” on this club.  “If this guy comes back healthy,” “if this guy can pitch like he’s supposed to,” “if this guy can bounce back,” “etc.”  It’s ok to gamble on one or two players whose stock fell for whatever reason, but when it becomes the basis on building your franchise for any upcoming season, it tends to hurt more than help you in the end.  

More fantasy baseball is available here.

You can view the other Mardi Gras Madness teams here. 

MAKING THE PITCH: Tampa Rays

Longoria gets that loooong-term deal w/#Rays, & David Price looks on with envy. "Absolutely," Price says cbsprt.co/Wi12q9
— Scott Miller (@ScottMCBS) March 11, 2013

Felipe M

We take a look at the projected starting rotations and closer situations of every MLB team.  Of course, this will come from a fantasy perspective.  All cited stats are based on 2013 projections.   

To see our preview of the Texas Rangers, click here. 

Now let's take a quick look at the Tampa Rays: 

2013 PITCHING PROJECTIONS
Player	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/A
David Price	3.38	8.88	2.63	7.58	1.13	0.71
Jeff Niemann	2.38	7.01	2.95	8.19	1.24	0.89
Matt Moore	2.67	9.31	3.49	7.79	1.25	0.94
Jeremy Hellickson	2.22	6.97	3.14	8.17	1.26	1.02
Alex Cobb	2.13	6.80	3.19	8.48	1.30	0.78
Fernando Rodney	2.35	8.58	3.66	6.75	1.16	0.56

As you can see, the projections are ranked from lowest to highest WHIP.  Fernando Rodney is the projected closer. The main concern for Rodney is that his 2012 numbers were so unexpected when you consider the last few seasons prior to 2012, that it's hard to imagine him repeating those numbers in 2013.  Currently, I have him ranked ahead of Glen Perkins as a 2nd tier closer.  His K/9 is too low to consider him a top-notch closer and his BB/9 is identical to Kyuji Fujikawa's.  WHIP is also similar to the weird and wild Chris Perez.   However, Rodney is coming off a successful WBC appearance and says he's more than ready to go for the start of 2013.

If Chris Perez is an important part of your bullpen, your bullpen better not be important.
— jeffpearlman (@jeffpearlman) March 18, 2013

Currently, opening day starter, David Price is listed in my top 10 starting pitchers' list (for now).  His numbers are absolutely dominant.  There's a reason why he's the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner.  

Jeremy Hellickson is listed as the #2 starter as the Rays go lefty-righty for the first 4 spots of their rotation.  So far, he's had mixed results this spring.  His numbers don't look very impressive, but even though he's 26, he still has some untapped upside.  Then again, if Hellickson's name wasn't attached to his potential, he would basically be Jason Hammel. Owners will reach for the once, highly-touted prospect, but beware of the hype.

So far, Matt Moore has struggled with control this spring.  But the potential to dominate hitters, based on his K/9 and the fact that he will only be 24 this season, makes him worthy of the risk despite control issues that have haunted him since 2012.  Currently, Moore is right on the border between 2nd and 3rd tier pitcher, just ahead of fellow lefty, Gio Gonzalez.

Meanwhile, Alex Cobb has turned a successful finish to his 2012 campaign into a good spring so far.  1.30 WHIP makes him a risk to draft too early, but Cobb is a candidate to actually exceed his projections.  He is currently ranked between Matt Harvey and Brett Myers.

Jeff Niemann is still in a battle with the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona.  Both are having solid springs.  We all know what "Carmona" is capable of: low strikeout totals, lots of groundballs.  Some issues with control and command.  On the other hand, Niemann is all over the place.  He has history of low strikeout totals, mediocre K/BB, and giving up the long ball.  However, even though he's proven to have a hard time staying healthy, he's actually been improving in the last two seasons (sans the homerun rate in 2012).  Though he only made 8 starts, 2012 was actually a "success" as he improved his K/9 (8.1) and K/BB (2.83).  He also posted his lowest WHIP in his Major League career (1.10).  I've always had faith in Niemann and hopefully, if he wins that 5th spot, he can finally pitch like he's supposed to.  

More MLB content is available here. 

2012 MLB PROSPECT REVIEW: Top 5

Bryce Harper had a heck of a 2012 season.

Felipe M

5. Trevor Bauer--SP--Cleveland Indians

• 2012 Outlook: "Compared to Tim Lincecum.  Best of the D'backs' prospects."
• 2012 Accomplishments: #3 in Pacific Coast League and the league's best pitcher.
• Conclusion: Aside from a 4.2 BB/9, Bauer absolutely dominated in the Minors in 2012.  He did pitch for the Big League club, but was playing hurt in his time with the D'backs.  Unfortunately for Arizona, conflict between the young pitcher and the entire organization forced the D'backs to ship him to Cleveland for a bushel of balls, a 2-year supply of hot dogs, and a high volume of the freshest Lake Erie water.  People are going to get fired in Arizona because of this trade.  However, management wanted to get rid of this promising prospect, but the real "snake bite" come from the fact that they really didn't get fair value for this player and that's very unfortunate.  At least they were able to get solid players in the Justin Upton deal.  Currently, Bauer is competing for the #5 spot in the Indians' rotation.  

4. Julio Teheran--SP--Atlanta Braves

• 2012 Outlook: "Compared to Pedro Martinez; best of the Braves' pitching prospects."
• 2012 Accomplishments: #1 Prospect in Braves' organization and possesses Best Changeup in the system; #4 Prospect in International League. 
• Conclusion: Struggled mightily in the Minors last season, but many pundits are blaming the organization for trying to change his delivery.  Reports out of spring training are that Teheran has returned to his old delivery and is pitching with extreme confidence.  He is currently competing for a rotation spot. 

3. Jesus Montero--C--Seattle Mariners

A young Jesus Montero readying himself with that lumber.

• 2012 Outlook: "Will mainly DH for the Mariners.  Can hit for power and average."
• 2012 Accomplishments: Played 135 games for the Mariners in 2012, but only 56 games at catcher.
• Conclusion: One of the many players that were linked to the recent BioGenesis scandal adds to Montero's problems, mainly his defensive duties at the catching position and how will he exactly bounce back from a disastrous 2012 (.260/.298/.389 BB:K .29).  His last season at Triple-A shows what Montero is capable of: .289/.351/.493/.843 BB:K .43.  That potential has management salivating at things to come and opted to hand him the keys to the #1 catching spot as they got rid of any potential competition that might get in his way this season. 

2. Bryce Harper--OF--Washington Nationals

• 2012 Outlook: "At 19, he's the best prospect in baseball.  Will get called up in 2012."
• 2012 Accomplishments: NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR and All-Star
• Conclusion: Now 20, Harper is slated to start in LF for the Nationals.  What's very impressive about Harper is that not only did he succeed as a teengager in his first season in the Majors, but that he showed no indication that he was ready for the Big Leagues in the Minors.  He struggled in Double and Triple-A posting mediocre batting average, low on-base%, and displaying absolutely no power.  His patience at the plate did improve so there might have been hope for him in that aspect.  He put on more weight to endure a full season in the Majors and, obviously, to hit for more power and improve on his .817 OPS from last season.

It might be the worst ballpark,
but it will be home to a lot of
young, promising players.

1. Matt Moore--SP--Tampa Rays

• 2012 Outlook: "Might be better than Stephen Strasburg."
• 2012 Accomplishments: Pitched 177.1 innings for the Rays. 
• Conclusion: After dominating and destroying everything in his path in Double and Triple-A, Moore's 2012 was sort of ordinary: WHIP 1.35; H/9 8.0; HR/9 0.9; BB/9 4.1; K/9 8.9.  He did find his rhythm in the 2nd half of the season so that's a good sign; that and his high strikeout rate.  Moore is very likely to break camp as the Rays' #3 starter.  

 More MLB content is available here. 

The rest of the prospects can be found here.

All pictures courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos.