BRAGGING RIGHTS 2013: Mediocre Season in the Works

Felipe M

It's been awhile since I wrote an update on my fantasy baseball team, the Black Hole Army.  I already explained the rules of the league at the beginning of the year, but quickly recapitulate, it's a Head2Head, Fantasy Point, Weekly Keeper League.  The name of the league is Mardi Gras Madness.

After getting off to a blazing start, winning 4 out of the first 5 games of the season, I've dropped 3 out of the last 4 games.  This has me with a 5-4 record although I'm very fortunate that I still have a winning record considering I own the 2nd to last worst record in terms of fantasy points.  So I could easily be 0-9.  The season is still young as only one team is really running away from the pack with an 8-1 record, team Balls Out.  All other teams, at worst, are only 2 games behind the wildcard standings.  That's definitely something to celebrate.  

The following is a what my team looked liked at the beginning of the season:

• Green=Keeper Player
• Yellow=Drafted Player
• White=Waiver Pickup

Week 1
Pos	Player
C	Carlos Santana
1B	Edwin Encarnacion
2B	Ian Kinsler
SS	Danny Espinosa
3B	Martin Prado
LF	Ryan Braun
CF	B.J. Upton
RF	Allen Craig
DH	Jay Bruce
P	A.J. Griffin
P	Tim Hudson
P	Tommy Milone
P	Andy Pettitte
P	J.J. Putz
P	Huston Street
P	Jordan Zimmermann
2B/3B	Jedd Gyorko
CF/LF	Desmond Jennings
P	Mitchell Boggs
P	Gavin Floyd
P	Brandon McCarthy
P	Rick Porcello
DL	Jason Motte
Minors	Chris Archer
Minors	N/A

At the last moment, I had decided to cut Ricky Nolasco to pick up Rick Porcello as the latter was pitching very well in spring training and Nolasco looked like a bust coming into the season.  Also, had to pick up Mitchell Boggs to replace the injured Jason Motte.  A great idea at the time, Boggs was terrible as the St. Louis Cardinals' closer.  Chris Archer was on my team last season and when I saw that he would not make the Tampa Rays' 25-man roster, I decided to insert him in my Minor League slot thinking that he had the inside track to be called up first to the Big League club.  Of course, Jake Odorrizi would be the first prospect to get a crack at the Rays' rotation when ace pitcher, David Price went down with an injury.  

This is what the team looks like now entering the current week:

Week 10
Pos	Player
C	Carlos Santana
1B	Edwin Encarnacion
2B	Jedd Gyorko
SS	Jed Lowrie
3B	Martin Prado
LF	Ryan Braun
CF	Desmond Jennings
RF	Allen Craig
DH	Josh Willingham
P	Andrew Cashner
P	Corey Kluber
P	Tommy Milone
P	Andy Pettitte
P	David Phelps
P	Dan Straily
P	Jordan Zimmermann
3B	Nolan Arenado
SS	Didi Gregorius
CF	Angel Pagan
RF	Jay Bruce
DL	Ian Kinsler
P	Shaun Marcum
P	Ricky Nolasco
Minors	Trevor Bauer
Minors	Taijuan Walker

Josh Willingham was a player I had on my team last season and he was one of the biggest reasons I had made it all the way to the championship game in 2012.  Was hoping I could reacquire him on draft night, but that didn't come to fruition.  Then an owner, surprisingly enough, dropped him and after Willingham had cleared waivers, I added him to my roster with much haste.  In his last 53 at bats, he's hit 5 homers and driven in 11 RBI.  Not bad for a waiver pickup.

I had been paying special attention to Jed Lowrie for the last 2-3 seasons but injuries and lack of opportunity has always been major hurdles.  This spring, Lowrie was in tight competition for the starting shortstop spot in Oakland.  Had he been given the job before the day of my draft, I would have picked him up as my starting SS.  But Oakland waited until the last moment to pencil him in as the starter.  Many people are down on Lowrie due to his lack of counting stats and power, but he's been getting on base and making great contact with the ball.  That's really all you can ask for from your waiver pickups.  

However, this is a points league and getting on base is only step 1 of the process.  What you do on the basepaths is how owners rack up points.  Lowrie had been battling foot problems that may or may not have caused him to slump in the last 2-3 weeks or so.  Not one to give up on Lowrie, but knowing I had to have a backup plan, I was pleasantly surprised that no one had picked up Arizona D'backs' SS, Didi Gregorius. Gregorius was one of the players that Arizona acquired for uber-prospect, Trevor Bauer. 

Bauer, was cut in week 1 or 2 of the season as the Cleveland Indians decided to call him up for a spot start.  The owner decided to cut him not wanting to risk having an "illegal lineup."  Well, that's when I decided to swoop in and use my high waiver priority to pick up Bauer.  Hopefully, he'll be ready to go for the stretch run of the season when I will need his high upside to carry me to the wildcard berth.  

The other prospect I had recently signed was Taijuan Walker as I had given up on Archer thinking that the Rays might only call him up for bullpen duties.  Walker may not be called up this season, but his potential makes him a great, long-term player.  Also, the league has done a great job in stockpiling on the best prospects in the game right now so considering that the pickings were slim, I'm content with having Walker on my club.  

The injury to Ian Kinsler was unfortunate, but came at a time where #41 ranked prospect, Jedd Gyorko was finally figuring out how to be a Big League hitter.  #6 Prospect, Nolan Arenado was picked up as a backup plan to the struggling Martin Prado.  Both have been disappointing, but I'm holding out hope that both will play to their full capabilities sooner rather than later.  

Gyorko's teammate, Andrew Cashner was somebody I had high hopes for in 2013.  But injuries in the spring forced the San Diego Padres to start him out in the bullpen, therefore, making him a bad pickup on draft day.  As soon as he was named to the starting rotation, I immediately picked him up.  The lack of strikeouts has been a disappointment, but can't argue with his good control.  Another long-term project on the team.  

Another Padres' pitcher, Huston Street was dropped recently due to injury.  I picked up Dan Straily as he's pitched very well in his last 3 starts.  Also trying to make up for the fact that I had dropped his teammate, A.J. Griffin, perhaps a bit too prematurely.  

It's been that kind of season as I have been forced to play musical chairs with my pitching staff.  It was something I knew I had to do coming into the 2013 season, but it's been a lot worse than I had anticipated.  The frustration has not only come from players I picked up as long-term solutions to my staff fizzling out in their starts immediately after I had added them to my roster, but also from guys I was counting on on draft day.  Most notably, Tim Hudson, after showing signs of brilliance at the beginning of the year, I finally had to cut him loose as he was getting lit up way too many times for my taste.  I'm really hoping that Corey Kluber and David Phelps can continue to pitch like they did before week 9.  Both pitchers combined to score ZERO points in the last game.  Also betting on the fact that oft-injured Shaun Marcum can continue to get strong and healthier with each start that he makes.  You will also notice that I went ahead and reacquired Nolasco.

Finally, I can talk about my team without warning everybody about the great peril that is B.J. Upton.  There is a reason why I drafted Jennings alongside Upton.  Both players can prove to be explosive, especially in a points' league, but both come with poor plate approach, especially Upton.  Sure enough, Upton does terribly.  Upton is so bad, he's still a free agent player in my league.  Currently, Upton is owned in 71% of CBS leagues.  He was owned by 99% of the leagues in week 1.  That's a lot of drops.  He was replaced by somebody I should have drafted to be my starting CF in the first place, Angel Pagan.  His patience and contact skills make him an ideal, prototypical centerfielder in fantasy baseball.  Injuries, unfortunately, have been a nuisance however.  When healthy, Pagan has been a steady player on my team.

I'm not sure what the future holds for me this season.  I saw this season as one where I would not only have to rebuild, but stay competitive in a division that was there for the taking.  The Division may be out of reach now, but the wildcard is still there if I want it.  I have no excuses however.  I know my pitching staff is terrible, but I will continue to aggressively pursue pitchers to fill out my starting rotation on a permanent basis--not just spot starts.  My batting lineup, on the other hand, are full of players that I had targeted on draft day and are now on my team.  They're slumping right now, but the reason I acquired them was because their plate discipline would help extinguish slumps in a fast manner.  If anything, their approach would at least help them get on base, therefore, help these players score runs or steal bases.  So far, the plan looks like it has backfired, but I will continue to go to battle with these guys.  I'm encouraged to see Gyorko develop into the hitter I thought he could be in his rookie year and I'm hoping guys like Arenado, Lowrie, and Prado can follow suit.  

Feel free to share your fantasy baseball experience in 2013 in the comments' section.

More fantasy baseball content is available. 

MAKING THE PITCH: Cleveland Indians

Progressive Field produced the 11th most doubles in 2012.
A nightmare scenario if you're one of the following pitchers listed.
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos)

Felipe M

We take a look at the projected starting rotations and closer situations of every MLB team.  Of course, this will come from a fantasy perspective.  All cited stats are based on 2013 projections. 

For our review of the Cincinnati Reds, click here. 

We now take a look at the Cleveland Indians.

PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

1. Justin Masterson
• Good: Masterson's ticket to the big leagues has always been a hard sinker.  He doesn't give up many homers and is always flirting with earning double the groundouts than flyouts per season.  
• Bad: He pitches to a lot of contact.  Worse, he has a BB/9 of 3.27, giving him a projected WHIP of 1.39.
2. Ubaldo Jimenez
• Good: Can reach the 8 K/9 milestone.  
• Bad: Can be very hittable (8.72 H/9) and is constantly battling control issues (4.24 BB/9; WHIP 1.44).  
3. Brett Myers
• Good: 6.70 K/9 is pretty adequate.  Keeps walks under control as well (2.43 BB/9).
• Bad: 9.34 H/9 is the main culprit for a 1.31 WHIP.  These are similar numbers to big league, pitching novice, Jordan Lyles. 
4. Zach McAllister
• Good: Was recently named the official #4 starter by the team.  6.27 K/9 is solid, but unspectacular.  2.79 BB/9 is pretty impressive.  
• Bad: Yet another hurler who pitches to contact.  The H/9 (8.77), raises his WHIP to 1.28 and is expected to give up lots of homeruns this season.  Think Jason Vargas.
5. Trevor Bauer
• Good: One of many, many pitchers vying for that 5th spot.  Bauer is worth a closer look due to his high upside as a highly, touted prospect.  K/9 of 9.06 and H/9 of 8.17 and a 2/1 K/BB ratio makes him an intriguing choice.
• Bad: Young players tend to struggle with walks and Bauer, despite being supremely talented, might still need more Minor League experience.  Expected WHIP of 1.40 makes him useless, unless you're in a keeper/dynasty league format.

CLOSER

1. Chris Perez
• Good: Has similar numbers like Joel Hanrahan, but without the strikeout potential.  
• Bad: Due to a relatively low K/9 (8.84), his K/BB of 2.70 places him in the 2nd tier group of closers.  He's good enough to rack up the saves, but won't dominate like the elite closers in the game.

FANTASY ADVICE

As you can see, the Indians decided to stockpile their pitching rotation with adequate hurlers who get by from inning-to-inning by pitching to contact and letting the defense bail them out.  The best pitcher of the group, Myers, at best, can be drafted to fill out your 5,6, or 7th, but should be a guy that should sit on your bench until he shows you that he can produce on a consistent basis.  Bauer should only be drafted in long-term leagues.  Personally, I will not touch Jimenez if you pay me.  Same with Masterson and McAllister. 

More MLB content is available here. 

MAKING THE PITCH: Arizona Diamondbacks

Kennedy will start on Opening Day for D-backs on.si.com/YtdkL4
— SI MLB (@si_mlb) February 25, 2013

Felipe M

We take a look at the projected starting rotations and closer situations of every MLB team.  Of course, this will come from a fantasy perspective.  All cited stats are based on 2013 projections.

For our review on the Angels' pitching staff, click here. 

We'll take a look at the Arizona Diamondbacks.  

PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

1. Ian Kennedy
• Good: Has ability to strikeout hitters and keeps walks to a minimum (3.26 K/BB). Very durable pitcher.
• Bad: WHIP of 1.25 is too high for a starting pitcher who's supposed to be an "Ace."  
2. Trevor Cahill
• Good: Cheap source of strikeouts (K/9 6.71) and won't hurt you with the long ball.
• Bad: He is still a "pitch-to-contact" hurler.  The problem comes with a 3.24 BB/9 which is a tolerable number, but aggregate that with his H/9 (8.55) and it equals to an unforgiving WHIP of 1.31.
3. Brandon McCarthy
• Good: 3.57 K/BB is really good considering he won't strike out a lot of batters.  No concerns about his control either (1.71 BB/9) and like Cahill, he won't hurt you with the homer runs allowed.
• Bad: Unfortunately, like Cahill, he's depends a lot more on his defense to get him outs.  That dependency means a high H/9 of 9.11.
4. Wade Miley
• Good: Pretty similar numbers to McCarthy, but with a better chance of getting more K's.
• Bad: Just like McCarthy, however, he depends on contact to get him through innings, which makes for a H/9 projection of 8.91.
5. Tyler Skaggs
• Good: Is getting  a legit shot to break camp on the Big League roster as the D'backs try to justify shipping Trevor Bauer to Cleveland. Potential to post a respectable K/9 of 7.36.
• Bad: Despite the raw potential, he's still a young pitcher trying to figure out the Majors.  Projections suggest an approximate BB/9 of 3.68 and H/9 8.69 which should result in a high WHIP of 1.38.  

CLOSER

1. J.J. Putz
• Good: Might not be a big name, but when Putz is healthy and on his 'A' game, he's near-dominant when he gets the ball in the 9th.  K/BB of 5.82 is just sick.  Better than Craig Kimbrel's projected K/BB (5.22).
• Bad: Elbow and back issues from last season is a slight concern.  He'll be 37 this year.

FANTASY ADVICE

The D'backs stockpiled on starting pitchers that can keep the walks to a minimum, but also have unspectacular strikeout potential along with a need to pitch to contact: contact that results in a lot of base hits and rising WHIP.  Ian Kennedy is a safe bet, but should not be depended to be the ace of your pitching staff.  McCarthy, Miley can be trusted in the middle of your rotation and even Cahill has value at the backend of your team's rotation/spot starter.

As far as Putz goes, unless another injury slows him down this spring, even at his advanced age, he's still a legit closer (see Mariano Rivera) and should be drafted as your #1 source for saves.  

More MLB content is available here. 

2012 MLB PROSPECT REVIEW: Top 5

Bryce Harper had a heck of a 2012 season.

Felipe M

5. Trevor Bauer--SP--Cleveland Indians

• 2012 Outlook: "Compared to Tim Lincecum.  Best of the D'backs' prospects."
• 2012 Accomplishments: #3 in Pacific Coast League and the league's best pitcher.
• Conclusion: Aside from a 4.2 BB/9, Bauer absolutely dominated in the Minors in 2012.  He did pitch for the Big League club, but was playing hurt in his time with the D'backs.  Unfortunately for Arizona, conflict between the young pitcher and the entire organization forced the D'backs to ship him to Cleveland for a bushel of balls, a 2-year supply of hot dogs, and a high volume of the freshest Lake Erie water.  People are going to get fired in Arizona because of this trade.  However, management wanted to get rid of this promising prospect, but the real "snake bite" come from the fact that they really didn't get fair value for this player and that's very unfortunate.  At least they were able to get solid players in the Justin Upton deal.  Currently, Bauer is competing for the #5 spot in the Indians' rotation.  

4. Julio Teheran--SP--Atlanta Braves

• 2012 Outlook: "Compared to Pedro Martinez; best of the Braves' pitching prospects."
• 2012 Accomplishments: #1 Prospect in Braves' organization and possesses Best Changeup in the system; #4 Prospect in International League. 
• Conclusion: Struggled mightily in the Minors last season, but many pundits are blaming the organization for trying to change his delivery.  Reports out of spring training are that Teheran has returned to his old delivery and is pitching with extreme confidence.  He is currently competing for a rotation spot. 

3. Jesus Montero--C--Seattle Mariners

A young Jesus Montero readying himself with that lumber.

• 2012 Outlook: "Will mainly DH for the Mariners.  Can hit for power and average."
• 2012 Accomplishments: Played 135 games for the Mariners in 2012, but only 56 games at catcher.
• Conclusion: One of the many players that were linked to the recent BioGenesis scandal adds to Montero's problems, mainly his defensive duties at the catching position and how will he exactly bounce back from a disastrous 2012 (.260/.298/.389 BB:K .29).  His last season at Triple-A shows what Montero is capable of: .289/.351/.493/.843 BB:K .43.  That potential has management salivating at things to come and opted to hand him the keys to the #1 catching spot as they got rid of any potential competition that might get in his way this season. 

2. Bryce Harper--OF--Washington Nationals

• 2012 Outlook: "At 19, he's the best prospect in baseball.  Will get called up in 2012."
• 2012 Accomplishments: NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR and All-Star
• Conclusion: Now 20, Harper is slated to start in LF for the Nationals.  What's very impressive about Harper is that not only did he succeed as a teengager in his first season in the Majors, but that he showed no indication that he was ready for the Big Leagues in the Minors.  He struggled in Double and Triple-A posting mediocre batting average, low on-base%, and displaying absolutely no power.  His patience at the plate did improve so there might have been hope for him in that aspect.  He put on more weight to endure a full season in the Majors and, obviously, to hit for more power and improve on his .817 OPS from last season.

It might be the worst ballpark,
but it will be home to a lot of
young, promising players.

1. Matt Moore--SP--Tampa Rays

• 2012 Outlook: "Might be better than Stephen Strasburg."
• 2012 Accomplishments: Pitched 177.1 innings for the Rays. 
• Conclusion: After dominating and destroying everything in his path in Double and Triple-A, Moore's 2012 was sort of ordinary: WHIP 1.35; H/9 8.0; HR/9 0.9; BB/9 4.1; K/9 8.9.  He did find his rhythm in the 2nd half of the season so that's a good sign; that and his high strikeout rate.  Moore is very likely to break camp as the Rays' #3 starter.  

 More MLB content is available here. 

The rest of the prospects can be found here.

All pictures courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos.  

2012 MLB PROSPECT REVIEW: #50-46

Felipe M

The following is a review of a list that was compiled way back in March of 2012.  "2012 Outlooks" are based on a summation of scouting reports (entering the 2012 MLB season) of each player condensed into a sentence or two for easier reading.

50. Jake Marisnick--OF--Miami Marlins

• 2012 Outlook: "Long-term, but can hit for power/average and is fast."
• 2012 Accomplishments: #2 Prospect for Toronto Blue Jays as well as Best OF Arm and Best Outfielder in their farm system; #11 and #9 Best Prospect in Florida State and Eastern Leagues, respectively. 
• Conclusion: Marisnick was traded to Miami in the trade that brought Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, Mark Buehrle, and John Buck to Toronto. Marisnick posted decent stats in Hi-A Ball (.263/.349/.451/.800), but struggled in Double-A, posting Slash Lines of .233/.286/.336/.622). He did manage to steal 24 bases in 2012 proving that he is fast on the basepaths. However, Marisnick will have to have a better season in Double-A before the Marlins even think about calling him up to the Big Club. 

49. Gerrit Cole--SP--Pittsburgh Pirates

• 2012 Outlook: "Looked sharp in [2011] Arizona Fall League. Might make the Big Leagues by late 2012."
• 2012 Accomplishments: #2 Prospect and Best Fastball in Florida State League; #3 Best Prospect in Eastern League.
• Conclusion: If there was any more wonder as to why the Diamondbacks traded away prize prospect Trevor Bauer, Cole might have known something about Bauer that others might not have as both were teammates at UCLA and both were high draft picks in 2011. Should be interesting to see how both pitchers' careers will continue to connect with each other. Sort of similar to the 2012 NFL QB Class of Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, etc. The Pirates are taking their time with Cole, but Cole is accelerating rapidly beginning his first year of Professional Baseball in High-A Ball and made one start in Triple-A in 2012. Last year, Cole posted dominant stats, but a BB/9 of 3.1 is a slight alarm. 

48. Matt Dominguez--3B--Houston Astros

• 2012 Outlook: "Ready to play in the Majors, but bat is suspect."
• 2012 Accomplishments: Best Defensive 3B in Pacific Coast League
• Conclusion: Dominguez came to the Astros via Miami in a trade that sent Carlos Lee to the Marlins in July. Dominguez actually was called up to Houston in September, but instead of battling pitchers, he was battling a sore wrist and a stomach ailment that sidelined him throughout the month. Dominguez had shown decent discipline in Triple-A, although power numbers were lacking. In the Majors, however, he did hit .284 with a SLG% of .477, but his BB:K of .24 and on-base% of .310 did not fully display the discipline he had showcased in the Minors. His glove has always been his ticket to the Majors and the Astros are content with giving him a shot at the hot corner this season. Needless to say, he needs to start finding a way to put the bat on the ball.

47. James Darnell--3B--San Diego Padres

• 2012 Outlook: "High average hitter with 20+ homerun power potential."
• 2012 Accomplishments: N/A
• Conclusion: Darnell spent most of his 2012 season on the DL with a left shoulder injury. Darnell had all ready proven that, despite power still in development, he can post a high contact rate and an even more impressive OBP%. The good news for Darnell in 25 games with the Padres, thus far, he has been able to display strong plate discipline. The smart money is to bet on Darnell to start 2013 in Triple-A, but has an outside chance of winning a bench role with the Padres. Either way, it's worth keeping an eye on Darnell throughout the upcoming season.

46. Trayvon Robinson--OF--Baltimore Orioles

• 2012 Outlook: "Had a great spring training session (2012), but will be sent to the Minors. Might come up later in '12."
• 2012 Accomplishments: N/A
• Conclusion: Robinson was traded to the Baltimore Orioles for Robert Andino in the fall. Robinson had a tough time in the Majors last season and was all ready struggling in Triple-A Tacoma with lack of plate discipline, power, and on-base%. He might be able to compete for a 4th OF spot for the Orioles, but it's highly doubtful. 

Prospects #55-51 can be reviewed here. 

Prospects #45-41 can be reviewed here.