HIRED ARMS: Don't Lose Touch

Felipe M

With two weeks all ready wrapped up in the 2013 MLB season, we take a look at possible options to fill out your pitching rotation from the waiver wire.  By now, all the hottest pitchers should have been picked up by now, but baseball is a cyclical game and what's hot today, may be cold tomorrow and vice-versa.  So the following is the ultimate "buy-low" list of pitchers.

The criteria: we will only look at pitchers that are owned in less than 50% of CBS fantasy baseball leagues.  We're not advocating that you go pick up these pitchers immediately, but may be worth a look if you're in dire needs for arms or just to scout for a future date.

Bobby Parnell--New York Mets--54% owned: I know I said less than 50%, but Parnell is worth special mention.  He had a great spring and he really hasn't pitched terribly this year.  His issue is that he only has one save, but it's not his fault as the Mets have been winning their games in deciding fashion.  But I don't believe the Mets can continue to win in this way as I believe Parnell will have to be utilize more as this team just looks like a squad that will have to claw and fight their way through a lot of one-run victories.  He has yet to give up a walk and that alone should pique your interest.

Mike Fiers and Felix Doubront--43% and 46% respectively: The main issue with both of these pitchers is that both of their teams are in no need of using a 5th starter for the time being.  And although Fiers did not look very good in his first start, Doubront actually pitched a decent game in his lone start this season.  Both of these pitchers were projected to have decent years and are worth monitoring as soon as their respective teams put them back in regular rotation.

Dillon Gee--Mets--37%: We've mentioned Gee's struggles before, but I'm still confident that he'll be able to bounce back and eventually help your starting rotation.  

Chris Tillman--Baltimore Orioles--32%: Tillman has struggled with control and command, but he's still worth monitoring because of his 2012 season.  He's also struck out one batter per inning so far.  

J.A. Happ and Ubaldo Jimenez--47%: Both pitchers have registered a strike out per inning and both have struggled with control.  The difference between the two is that Happ has found ways to earn wins, while Jimenez has given up a base-hit per inning.  Happ seems to be in the better situation, but even Jimenez, with a little bit of luck, can turn his season around and is worth keeping tabs on.

Edwin Jackson--Chicago Cubs--50%: We've mentioned how unpredictable, but lights out Jackson can be.  Unfortunately, he's been struggling with control and command issues, but has a K/9 of 11.04.  As the weather warms up, I can't help but be optimistic about Jackson's season turning around.

Wade Davis--K.C. Roayals--31%: We've been waiting for Davis to live up to the hype bestowed on him back in his Tampa days.  Nothing about his current counting stats show any signs of hope, but his reputation alone gives him another chance of redemption for this season.

Not an impressive list of pitchers, but when you're digging through the rubble, you try to look at the bright side of things.  The common theme for these pitchers is that they're all known commodities and they've all had, at the very least, minor success in their recent past.  

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MARDI GRAS MADNESS: Bourbon St Red Sox

Felipe M

As explained in the last article, I'll be posting my fantasy baseball keeper league predictions on this website.  

To view my team, click here. 

I posted predictions for the Co-Commissioner's team, the Castroville Crushers.  No we take a look at the other Co-Commissioner's team.

WEST DIVISION—BOURBON ST RED SOX (out of New Orleans, LA)

BATTING LINEUP

Like: Prince Fielder proved that there was no ballpark big enough to deny his power.  Looking for a bounce-back season from Jacoby Ellsbury as well.  The future of this team is Bryce Harper whom is still improving on his skills and still young enough to post bigger numbers—this after coming off an All-Star season in 2012.  I also like Norichika Aoki: what he lacks in power, he makes up in a very patient approach at the plate and is a speedy baserunner with 30+ steals appeal.

2013 Hitting Projections
Player	Team	BB/K	AB/K	AB/HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB
Jacoby Ellsbury	Boston	0.50	7.00	33.39	0.343	0.454	0.798	27
Prince Fielder	Detroit	0.97	5.73	17.55	0.417	0.533	0.950	1

 

Dislike: Big-cut swingers Rickie Weeks, Mike Moustakas, and J.J. Hardy; projected to combine for 353 strikeouts (118 a piece).  And that’s not mentioning Adam Dunn’s strikeout totals as his career is dipping rapidly.  Obviously, his appeal is in his power, but should not belong on any fantasy team, at least not this early in the season.

Look Out For: Jesus Montero as the Mariners have given him the opportunity to take over the catching position.  Montero’s stats as a catcher were a lot better than as a DH in 2012. 

BENCH: It will be interesting to see if Yonder Alonso can benefit from the fences being moved in at San Diego.  He had a good, late-season run in 2012.  As long as Michael Cuddyer plays in Colorado, he will continue to find a place on a fantasy team.  I don’t see Denard Span being utilize too often on this team.

PITCHING

Like: Madison Bumgarner (see 2013 projections below) might be the best pitcher on the Giants.  He won’t be doing it by himself either as the Red Sox are loaded with pitchers: Edwin Jackson, Jon Lester, Kris Medlen, Ian Kennedy, Hisashi Iwakuma.

Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/A
Madison Bumgarner	San Francisco	4.04	8.35	2.07	8.18	1.14	0.82

Dislike: Not a fan of Clay Buchholz as he’s been a disappointment since the BoSox have given him a regular spot in the rotation after many years of being hyped as a highly-touted prospect. 

Look Out For: There’s a few candidates at this spot: Matt Garza, when he comes back from injury, gives the Bourbons incredible depth in the rotation.  Minor Leaguers Danny Hultzen and Kevin Gausman are very likely to be called up later in 2013, but Hultzen is more likely to step into his team’s starting rotation and flourish than Gausman.

BULLPEN: As opposed to years past, the Bourbons didn’t go after a lot of relievers.  They did pick up Jonathan Papelbon who is a top-tier closer.

PREDICTION: The pitching is incredibly loaded and might be good enough to carry the club to another championship.  What’s stopping this team from a sure spot in the playoffs in their infield, sans Fielder.  Nevertheless, they have an OF that should prove to be consistent throughout the year.  Whether they can make up for the short falls from their impatient teammates is yet to be seen.  

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MAKING THE PITCH: Chicago Cubs

Will the Cubs win a lot more games in 2013?
(photo courtesy of Sharon P. Mancia)

Felipe M

We take a look at the projected starting rotations and closer situations of every MLB team.  Of course, this will come from a fantasy perspective.  All cited stats are based on 2013 projections.  

Check out the Colorado Rockies pitching staff, here. 

This is a bit personal, however.  As you may or may not know, the Chicago Cubs are my team (along with the Chicago White Sox).  But the bitter apathy and comical season that was the 2012 Cubs had one silver lining: at least the starting pitching was good enough to make them somewhat respectable.  This season, however, trying to figure out this team has been nothing but a major headache.  And I'm not even talking about their closer situation!  Not because they're a lot worse than last year; it's because they have so many potential starters, it's difficult to figure out who's a legit starter, and who will only be holding down the fort until Matt Garza and Scott Baker come back.  The Cubs had an impressive offseason picking up a lot of pitchers.  But from a fantasy standpoint, it's very frustrating to get an accurate gauge on these guys.  

Yesterday, the Cubs outlined their pitching rotation for the start of the season, but their forecast is still not any clearer than it was on Wednesday.  Therefore, I'm only taking a close look at the 3 pitchers who will be there, for certain, on the regular rotation in 2013.

PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

1. Jeff Samardzija
• Good: 8.82 K/9: need we say more?  He also has overpowering stuff that helps limit the base-hits (H/9 of 7.98).  
• Bad: Has a little Kerry Wood in him; he won't give up many hits, but he'll give up plenty of walks (BB/9 3.78).  That brings his WHIP projection to 1.31.  Ouch!
2. Matt Garza
• Good: 8.43 K/9 and an approximate K/BB of 3/1 make him a legit pitcher in any format.
• Bad: Injuries and lack of run support have haunted him, especially since becoming a Cub.  1.13 HR/9 is nothing to fret about, but on those days that the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field, might prove to be disastrous.  Matter of fact, Garza has a history of giving up a lot of homeruns and he's a career flyball pitcher.  However, based on his Groundouts/Flyouts ratio as a Cub, suggest that he is improving on forcing more groundouts than flyballs.
3. Edwin Jackson
• Good: One of the nastiest pitchers out there, Jackson is supposed to sport a K/9 of 7.73.  And after having a reputation of being a wild pitcher, he is projected to have a BB/9 of 2.81.  He won't hurt himself with the longball either (HR/9 of 0.92).
• Bad: 1.29 WHIP is a bit high.  Despite the improvements in the last 3 seasons, Jackson can still come off as a bit unpredictable as a starting pitcher.  

CLOSERs

1. Carlos Marmol
• Good: 12.95 K/9 and 0.68 HR/9 is what makes him a good closer.  He's almost unhittable (H/9 of 6.95. Craig Kimbrel is better at 6.49).
• Bad: Unfortunately, Marmol has a tough time controlling his walks (BB/9 of 6.68).  He seems to have trouble with command of his slider as batters are not biting on it like they were before.  The walks raise his WHIP to an alarming 1.52.  Currently, the Cubs are desperately trying to deal him.
2. Kyuji Fujikawa
• Good: He has enough experience at the role as he's racked up plenty of saves back in Japan.  Baseball America ranks him as the team's #9 prospect.  
• Bad: Tough to gauge if and how a pitcher from another league will be able to streamline success to the Majors.  His projections seem to project him as a low-level, second-tier closer.  The Cubs seem to like him enough for the 9th inning job as he will no doubt move up to that role as soon as they deal Marmol.

FANTASY ADVICE

The other pitchers involved in this claustrophobia-like starting rotation are Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva, and Travis Wood.  I hate Feldman so I'm not even going to bother with him.  I've always liked Wood, but can be very inconsistent at times.  

The intriguing guy of the group is Villanueva.  In 2010, he was exclusively coming out of the bullpen for the Milwaukee Brewers, but last season with the Toronto Blue Jays, he posted impressive numbers as both a reliever and a starter.  He posted impressive strikeout totals and an adequate WHIP.  Projections from various publications show that he's expected to continue with the impressive strikeout rates, but WHIP is ranged between 1.25 and 1.45.  Nevertheless, if he can control the walks and the H/9 numbers, he can become a deep sleeper for at least the first month of the season.

Scott Baker is a flyball pitcher who has a history of giving up a lot of homeruns.  However, he is known to do a great job of controlling his walks and can post respectable strikeout totals (career K/9 of 7.23).  If he can come back without any issues from Tommy John surgery, he can prove to be a useful pitcher in 2013.

The Cubs did a good job acquiring pitchers that can post good strikeout totals, but they all come with baggage: control, injuries, spells of inconsistencies, lack of run support etc.  Nevertheless, I would be comfortable drafting any of these pitchers to fill in the middle of my rotation, but I wouldn't reach to put any of these guys at my top 3 slots.  

Obviously, the closer situation becomes more clear as soon as they find someone willing to deal with Marmol.  I would still take a wait-and-see approach on Fujikawa, though.

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