IN EXILE: Waiver Wire Help for Your OF

Felipe M

We attempted to help those owners in need of a First Baseman back in late April and I've seen a rise in ownership for both James Loney (from 7% to 51%) and Mitch Moreland (16% to 49%).  Of the six players that were owned in less than 35% of CBS leagues, only Loney and Moreland deserved strong consideration to be owned on your team.  The baseball world has been waiting for them to come back down to Earth, but they're still producing respectable numbers, heretofore.  

We try to take that same approach for those owners looking for OF help.  We look at a few select players that are available in less than 70% of CBS leagues (all stats are as of May 11, 2013.  Ownership figures are accurate at the time article was published).  

Jon Jay--St. Louis Cardinals (CF)--47%: One of my favorite, unsung players from last season, Jay's calling card included great contact skills, great on-base%, and the potential to steal 20+ stolen bases.  However, question marks loomed about possible playing time, fluky  numbers, and lack of pop.  Well, this season, Jay has somehow redesigned his game this season.  His approach is a lot better this year, than last season, but he's much more aggressive as well, striking out at a faster clip than in 2012.  This more aggressive approach has seen mixed results:

• His on-base% of .338 is the lowest we've seen from Jay.
• He is making a concerted effort to lift the ball in the air with more frequency this season.
• This has increased his line-drive rate to 30%.
• He now has a Homerun/Flyball rate of 6.1%, almost tripling his 2012 rate.

He is swinging at more strikes compared to last season and although it hasn't equaled a good batting average or OPS, it's worth noting that his increase in pop has come with a .284 BABIP.  So you can evaluate Jay in two ways:

1. More flyballs limits his best asset--his speed--for only a slight increase in pop.
2. If he can get a bit more lucky, perhaps the pop, along with his ability to make contact with the ball, will equal more extra base-hits and his batting average and OPS will increase with the improving results.

Hard to not give a guy with a 30% line-drive rate a second look, especially if you're in need for an OF.  Jay may turn out to be a long-term solution.

Michael Saunders--Seattle Mariners (LF, CF, RF)--62%: Saunders came into the 2013 season with plenty of hype.  He was projected to be a 20-20 guy, they were going to move the fences in at Safeco Field, and he was coming off a successful campaign for Team Canada in this year's World Baseball Classic.  And then he was placed on the Disabled List with a shoulder injury after getting off to a hot start.  Well, he's back now, hitting .280, with 2 homeruns, 3 stolen bases, and has drawn 5 walks in the month of May (through May 10, 2013).  

So is he for real or is this all luck?  One thing we tend to forget is that at one time, Saunders was a highly-touted prospect for the Mariners.  He struggled to find a permanent spot on the Big League club, but 2012, he showed some flashes of his potential, finishing with 19 homeruns and 21 stolen bases.  So he does have pedigree on his side.

He's always had a decent plate approach in the Minors, but has failed to streamline that ability to the Majors.  He has shown that capability this season as his strikeout rate has decreased to a record low and his walk rate is a career high (20.3% and 12.2% respectively).  However, this improved approach is very impressive when you consider how aggressive he is at the plate.  He swings at the first pitch, 30% of the time and has yet to see a 3-0 count this season.  Also, he goes up to the plate looking to always put the ball in the air and the increase in flyballs has seen an increase in his HR/FB to 14.3%.  His .859 OPS is helped by a line-drive rate of 28%.  When you consider that he's still posting good numbers despite a BABIP of .267 and it all leads one to believe that Saunders' breakout campaign in 2013 is absolutely real.  

Gerardo Parra--Arizona Diamondbacks (LF, CF, RF)--69%: Parra has been holding his own as he has not only taken over CF duties for the D'backs, but is also the team's leadoff hitter.  With an OPS of .831 and a BB/K of 0.70, Parra seems to be the prime example of what a good plate approach can do for a player's number.  However, there's a few holes in Parra's game that is worth warning about: 

• His Extra Base-Hit% of 10.1% and Line-Drive% of 24% are both career highs.  
• He owns a BABIP of .345
• He has 4 stolen bases, but has been caught stealing 5 times.  This is bad for fantasy leaguers in points' leagues that penalizes players for being caught stealing.  Roto-leaguers probably don't care about the poor stolen base rate, but should be interesting to see if Arizona will continue to give him the green light on the basepaths.

Parra is also looking to drive the ball more in the air and this year, he's shown to be more selective at the plate as he's seeing his strikeout rate decrease, while his walk rate increases (both career bests).  The new approach might be the explanation why he's able to drive the ball better than in year's past.  However, plenty of luck can also be attributed to his success, but the discipline at the plate should be reason enough to take a chance on Parra as he is a relatively safe choice in the OF.  

Marcell Ozuna--Miami Marlins (RF)--30%: Ozuna came in this year as a top prospect (by default) for the Marlins as he's produced good power numbers in the Minors.  He has a .943 OPS and has made enough contact to hit his way on base.  With a 14.6% Extra base-hit rate and a 28% line-drive rate, Ozuna is definitely crushing the ball during his Major League debut.  Reports in the Minors showed that his approach at the plate had been improving, but that he still is prone to chase at bad pitches.  With a BABIP of .387, Ozuna might be more of a short-term solution for your fantasy team as much as the Marlins will give him a chance to cement himself in the Marlins' long-term plans.

Oswaldo Arcia--Minnesota Twins (LF, RF)--34%: Just like Ozuna, Arcia was another hyped prospect in the Twins system.  Just like Ozuna, Arcia has a propensity to swing at bad pitches.  He currently has a strikeout rate of 26% against a walk rate of 5.5%. Nevertheless, he has an OPS of .892, no doubt assisted by a line-drive rate of 22% and a HR/FB of 10.3%.  However, Arcia possesses a BABIP of .404.  Due to Arcia's reputation of being a free-swinger, his production will most likely decrease, but until then, if you can stomach his poor discipline, then continue to ride out his hot streak.

Juan Pierre--Miami Marlins (LF, CF)--38%: Just when I think that Pierre's days as a fantasy baseball, relevant name are numbered, he comes back and continues to utilize the only thing that makes him useful in fantasy and "real" baseball: his speed.  12 stolen bases and was on pace to steal 55 bases over the weekend.  It always amazes me how a guy with a low batting average and on-base% can even get on base to do damage on the basepaths.  But that has been Pierre's rep for years now.  For starters he only strikes out once every 10 at bats and he has a whopping 90% contact rate.  Pierre also knows his strengths and weaknesses: he can run very fast, but won't hit for much pop.  Therefore, Pierre goes out of his way to hit the ball on the ground in order to best utilize his speed.  His BABIP is only .275 so he busts his tail to get to first base.  

However, there are concerns: 

• He's incapable of taking a walk with regularity so it's questionable if he can continue producing raw numbers with this style of play.  
• Infield per Flyball rate (basically, pop ups/outs) is a career high, 17%.  So perhaps age is playing a factor on his bat speed.
• Also a career high is the rate that he is Striking Out Looking--33%.

Presumably, roto-leaguers will sacrifice batting average and power if it means increasing their chances for more stolen bases, but for points' leaguers, there's enough red flags to prevent you from picking him up. 

Nate Schierholtz--Chicago Cubs (RF)--38%: The "other" Nate in Chicago, Schierholtz is getting playing time for a mediocre Cubs' lineup and he's making the most of it.  He's produced an OPS of .880 and has only been striking out once every 6 at bats or so, but an alarming stat is his walk rate of 5.6%--the lowest it has been since 2009.  

He's hitting a homerun once every 26 at bats or so, which approximately equals to about one homer/week.  That's a bit oversimplified, but that's the kind of year that he's having!  He's posting career highs in Line-Drive% (28%--career high), HR/FB (8.9%--career high), and Extra base-hit% of 15%.  Nonetheless, all of the good vibes come with a BABIP of .313.  It remains to be seen if he can continue to produce these power numbers once his BABIP gets closer to .300.  The poor discipline might prove to be his downfall, but he can still be a source of cheap power if your team is in need.

Michael Brantley--Cleveland Indians (LF, CF)--37%: After underwhelming owners in the last three years, Brantley's name has become relevant again after sporting a .355 on-base% and flirting with a .300 hitting average for the first time since his rookie season.  However, a BABIP of .336 might prove to be the culprit of Brantley's seemingly resurgent season.

Much of a deal was made of Brantley's numbers since April 20th last week.  Brantley was hitting .342, 6 extra-base hits, and even drove in 9 RBI in a 17-game span.  However, despite all of the hoopla surrounding his "newfound" gap power, Brantley's XBH% is a career low 6.5% (and dropping).  It gets worse as we look at other career lows for Brantley:

• Line-Drive% of 19%
• Walk Rate of 6.5%
• Contact Rate of 88% (90% for his career)

So he is making less contact than ever before in his Major League career.  He's also hitting more groundballs than ever before in his career (1.21) and popping up more than usual (13% IF/FB is also a career high).  

It is quite possible that Brantley's numbers look bad due to a slow start and that he's just heating up at the right moment.  However, his high BABIP along with his other poor peripherals might be a case of Brantley's current fluky hot streak.  I would avoid if possible.

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(Editor's Note: Something that I've been wanting to bring back from the days when I was working on this blog is to finish every sports' entry by sharing a bit about my non-sports life.  So without further ado....)

Currently Reading: The Investigation by Stanislaw Lem (halfway through it.  There better be some sort of punchline at the end. Fast, but tedious read).

Current Album Listening to: In the Aeroplane Over the Sea by Neutral Milk Hotel

Last Song Played on Random Playlist: "This Lying World" by Unearth

Discovered New Band: American Steel

Dusted Off the Nintendo GameCube and Playing: Metroid Prime 2

WHO'S ON FIRST?

Never thought I would be writing about
Ike Davis (photo courtesy of Field of Fotos)

Felipe M

We've mentioned way, way back in the offseason about the depth at 1B entering this fantasy baseball season.  Whether you're in a 12, 14, or even a 16-team league, every club should have a somewhat, dependable player at that spot.  Well, not everyone is that lucky.

Over the weekend, I was answering a few fantasy baseball questions (like I normally do) when out of the blue, one of my associates posts this question:

"Would you trade Doug Fister or Mike Minor for Paul Konerko?  My current options at that spot are Brandon Moss, Ike Davis, and Justin Morneau (if needed)."

He went on to mention that he would be able to live with his current setup at 1B, but I couldn't help but wonder: how in the world did this happen?  Moss wasn't even listed on my list, Davis ultimately was the #19th 1B, and Morneau was a player that probably should have gone undrafted.  He later explained to me that during the draft, he had to step away from the computer for a moment, but by the time he got back, he ended up with an overabundance at 3B.  Had he not stepped away, Konerko would have been on the team and issue would have been resolved.  He would have even "settled" for Chris Davis instead of Ike, but that's the cruel game we deal with.

Of course, the answer was "no," you do not trade a front-of-the-line starter for an aging 1B.  He agreed that he would try to explore the possibility of trading one of his 3B, but was enamored with the idea of going with the current platoon system he has going so far.  Nothing wrong with a "platoon system" in fantasy baseball.  I myself have one going in CF with B.J. Upton and Desmond Jennings (and current add, Angel Pagan).  

Nevertheless, 1B is one of the more important, if not the most important, position in fantasy leagues because of the power numbers that the position can generate for a team.  I explained to him that Moss was a total fluke (of course, he didn't like that assessment) with poor plate discipline and terrible contact skills.  Ike Davis, although he has proven that he has legit power, has also proven to have a terrible approach at the plate and strikes out way too much (he hit .227 with an on-base% of .308 in 2012).  And it is unclear if Morneau will ever repeat his 2009 numbers after years of dealing with serious injuries.  

My associate countered by stating that since he's in a 5 category, head-to-head league, he's only interesting in the counting stats that accumulate in those categories only.  He really doesn't care about on-base% or how many times a guy strikes out.  Which is really weird for me because I use a lot of statistical criteria when evaluating a player and have, in the past, used this, successful, method when playing in similar leagues that my associate is currently a part of.  It was so strange to have a conversation with someone who described Moss as a ".280 [hitter] with 30+ homers and 90 RBI [and a] late bloomer who's improving in the [strikeout] category" (which all indications show that Moss is definitely not improving in that category at all).  A player like Moss who has had plate discipline issues throughout his Minor League career to suddenly becoming a .280 hitter just does not sound right, but I digress.  First rule of fantasy sports: if the method has worked, go with it!  I'll stick to my successful methods and my associate can stick to his.  It's that simple, really.  

However, that got me thinking: if my associate is struggling with 1B issues and is seriously talking himself into believing that his 3-headed monster might actually work, what is really going on with other owners having to face this same dilemma, but actually want to improve their situation and not have to settle for guys like Moss, Davis, or Morneau?  My most important rule when giving out fantasy baseball advice is to never, ever suggest to other owners to go after players that I myself would never consider having on my own team.  So to rephrase that question, what would I do if I were in that same predicament?  

Let's say that I'm stuck with a sub-par 1B, we'll call him Stinky McStinkerson (you guys out there can call him, Adam Dunn).  I guess the first thing I would do is search the waiver wire for a more suitable replacement.  The following players are owned by less than 75% of CBS leagues:

• Yonder Alonso--62%
• Yuniesky Betancourt--35%
• Matt Adams--36%
• Chris Johnson--64%
• Garrett Jones--32%
• James Loney--7%
• Brandon Moss--66%
• Stinky--70%
• Adam Lind--20%
• Mitch Moreland--16%
• Corey Hart--59%

First off, if I see that Alonso is available, I'm not even hesitating.  I'm swooping in, adding him to my lineup, and declaring my 1B problems solved.  We've been hyping up Alonso since February and he should be owned in more leagues.  He is currently posting an OPS of .988--at home!  Looks like those new dimensions at Petco Park are paying off for Alonso.  Albeit, his overall numbers don't look very impressive at all, but the fact that he's hitting a lot better at home is a step in the right direction.  He also has a reputation of having a great approach at the plate and raw, developing power.  He should be owned in more leagues.

And just to cover my ground at the position, I'm picking up Hart and stash him deep in my bench or my "injured reserve" spot and play the waiting game with him.  He's worth the wait because he is a proven commodity.

But wait a minute: didn't Brandon Moss have better numbers than Hart in 2012, considering that Moss had less at bats to work with?  Yes, from an efficiency standpoint, Moss' numbers looked better when you consider that Hart nearly doubled up Moss in at bats last season.  However, the 2012 numbers prove how much of a fluke Moss is.  Both players had similar BB:K and Hart had a slightly better contact rate than Moss, but clearly, both players have poor discipline.  Despite all of that, Hart was lucky enough to hit .271 considering his "hacking" approach (probably assisted by a BABIP of .318).  However, I'm just supposed to sit here and believe that Moss was able to hit .291 despite striking out as much as Hart?  His BABIP was .359!  Again, fluke!  However, I will concede that all other 2012 numbers (including Secondary Average, IsoPower, and Total Average) do favor Moss (although, League OPS which is "The OPS a league average (non-pitcher) would have had in the same park(s)," favored Hart).  Nevertheless, the .359 BABIP proves how lucky Moss was in being able to hit .291 last season.  Size is another factor in play as Hart is your prototypical slugger standing at 6'6", 237 lbs.  We've seen guys like Michael Morse use their size to their advantage to generate plenty of natural power despite the lack of plate discipline.  Moss, on the other hand, is 6'0", 210 lbs.  His Minor League power numbers show inconsistencies.  One year, he would post impressive homerun totals and slugging%, but other years, he would suddenly disappear in the power deaprtment, posting mediocre numbers.  It makes me question his ability to continue to provide consistent power production in the long-term knowing that he all ready lacks size, but also has a history of lacking power in some seasons.  Players like Moss are susceptible to long stretches of slumps.  Hart, ironically enough, is the more steady choice.

Assuming that Alonso and Hart are unavailable, I guess I would consider picking up Moss as a short-term solution, cutting bait as soon as his hot streak ends.      

Highly-touted prospect, Matt Adams would also be a good choice, but again, short-term solution as playing time is an issue because of the depth the St. Louis Cardinals have and the lack of flexibility that Adams offers on defense as he can only play 1B.

The versatile Chris Johnson (qualifies at both corner infield spots) has been hitting the ball in the last week or so as his contact rate is higher than usual and his current BABIP is a whopping .468!  Based on his history of terrible plate discipline, Johnson is clearly on a hot streak and just like Moss, he is only a short-term solution to your 1B problems.  He should be cut as soon as he starts to slump because it might be a long one.  

Betancourt is an odd option at this spot, but has created buzz as he hit 2 homeruns and drove in 7 RBI in the last week of play.  He also possesses a horrid plate approach, but has a history of good contact rate on his side.  However, because of his impatient approach (despite, ironically enough, posting a career walk percentage so far of 5.6%), he only has an on-base% of .278 and is only hitting .245.  I'll pass, thanks.

Same thing with Garrett Jones.  Although the power has always been there, he's always lacked consistency.  This season, he looks to be finally showing some signs of it, but again, it's just a fluke as his impatient approach is being masked by a slight increase in his contact rate and a BABIP of .350.  His on-base% should be a lot lower than .346 based on his League On-Base Percentage of .316.  

James Loney is having a surprising start to his season so far.  Always known for his discipline, good contact skills, and defense, he's lacked the power that is required of the position throughout his career.  Well, this season he's slugging .488.  He's only hit one homerun, but for what it's worth, he on pace to hit for more than 45 doubles.  Well, despite the reputation of possessing good discipline, his walk percentage of 10.4% is the highest he's posted since 2009.  He's also striking out more than usual as he's trying to lift the ball into the air with more frequency than what we're used to seeing.  His BABIP is a high .343 as well.  It should be interesting to see if Loney can sustain this kind of hitting prowess when his BABIP drops to more normal levels, but based on his past plate discipline, I would rather take a chance on Loney than on some of the other, all-or-nothing hitters we have listed heretofore.  

The most interesting statistical line comes from Adam Lind.  Lind has a a reputation for being an all-or-nothing hitter, posting one, good, solid season back in 2009.  Currently, Lind is struggling to find playing time as he's been mired in a long slump that also includes a power outage (only has 3 total extra base-hits this year).  Despite his struggles, he's still posting an on-base% of .370.  Lind has walked 9 times and has only struck three times.  That's amazing considering the kind of player Lind is.  Who knows if Lind can turn his career around, but at least he's trying to improve one aspect of his game.  

By now, we all know that Moreland is a power-hitter that's had plate discipline and strikeout issues in the Majors, despite the fact that he's shown an amazing plate approach in the Minors.  Well, he's posting a respectable BB/K of .50, has displayed good homerun power (despite the low slugging% and OPS), and despite showing good contact skills this season, his BABIP is at a devastating .140.  His Slash Line should be a lot higher than they currently are based on the League Average metrics.  So if you believe in buying low with the hopes that Moreland will snap out of his current slump and provide excellent production for the rest of the season, he would look to be the perfect candidate to provide such a scenario.  

So there you have it.  A desperate owner's look at the 1B position.  The pickings are slim and you have to be very creative in choosing a player that best fits your needs.  Do you go short-term and select a player that is on fire?  Do you risk going with a less exciting pick in the hopes that a certain player snaps out of a slump and rewards your patience by providing good numbers for the rest of the year?  Or do you go safe by selecting a player with past reputation, pedigree, and/or offers good plate discipline?  If it's me doing the picking, I would go with the latter.  But that's just simply the way I do things; my method if you will.

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