COURTSIDE VIEW: Pacemaker

Johnny J

Welcome to the first Courtside View entry.  I'm your host, Johnny J!  This week's topic is all about the Indiana Pacers.  

Indiana was real good at slowing down the high-powered New York Knicks' offense (RIP--Ed). The Knicks were actually ranked 11th in scoring for the regular season, averaging 100 PPG.  The Miami Heat, the Pacers' opponent in the Eastern Conference Finals, ranked 5th with 102.9 PPG.  The Pacers will try and make the Heat play at their pace, meaning plenty of half-court ball.  Indiana knows they can't out-score the Heat and I wonder, how much do they have left in the tank after going six games with the Knicks? Indiana only averaged 94.7 PPG in the regular season (92 PPG in the playoffs--Ed) and ranked a sub-par 23rd in the league.

With Miami only averaging 12 fastbreak points per game, I can really see the pacemaker Pacers controlling the game.  They have a "team" that can have a different leading scorer every game. Yes, they have a young star in Paul George (Johnny J wrote about Paul George last month: he's really "lights out"--Ed), but he still has a lot to learn, before I put him in the top-tier list of players in the NBA.

George is a player who can potentially average a triple-double with his style of play.  He doesn't need the ball in his hands every time to make an impact in the game.  But the ball does go through his hands almost every play. Whether it's on a rebound, pass, or shot. In the playoffs he has averaged 19.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. The most improved player at 22 has shown up!

The Knicks averaged 31.5 points from three pointers. They were second in the league, with the Heat, coming in third averaging 25.7. The Pacers averaged first in opponents three pointers percentage and field goal percentage.  The Heat likes to spread the floor, just like the Knicks did, but the Knicks couldn't hit their shots, averaging only 37% from behind the arc against Indiana. How will Miami learn from the Knicks mistakes?  Indiana, doesn't like to double team opponents. With defensive-minded players like Paul George, George Hill and Roy Hibbert, they don't have to. George was on the all-defensive second team and Hibbert could've been on the list as well. The tall, imposing freak had 19 blocks in six games (3.2 per game) against the Knicks.

The Pacers won the series 2-1 in the regular season against the Heat.  Both wins coming at home at Conseco Fieldhouse. The Pacers were 30-11 at home in the regular season and 6-0 at home in the postseason.  As good as the Pacers are at home, it is imperative that the prove that they can win on the road in this series.  That is just a fact of life: Champions win on the road!  They finished up the Atlanta Hawks on the road and they also stole game one in New York. I believe they can do it. They have the attitude of a championship team, and they stayed composed throughout the playoffs.  They're not that deep off the bench, but neither is Miami.  I also acknowledge they are young and everybody on the court, regardless of position or size, attacks the glass. They were first in rebounds averaging 45 per game. They're like beasts on the glass (We explained how the Miami Heat have struggled against good rebounding clubs this season--Ed).

I see this series going seven games without a doubt in my mind.  The Pacers can match the intensity of the Heat, but it's going to be about "who is going to want it more?"  The pressure is more on the Heat.  Not only do they have three All-Stars, but one in particular, LeBron James, is being compared to as the greatest of all time (Numbers don't lie--Ed).

This maybe the last time the big three are together.  The pacers will crash the boards and they will not send double teams as every man can hold his own defensive assignment. It will limit the threes from the role players and it will be a physical battle.  I believe home-court will be a major factor, but I believe the Pacers will steal one in south beach.

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THE EMERGENCE OF PAUL GEORGE

Johnny J

"Oh, he's really lights out."--Kenny Smith

It must be something going around for players who have two first names. For some reason, they know how to ball: Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, Kevin Martin, and Paul George, just to name a few. (Taking a note down for when I have a son).  These players have established themselves as good NBA players.  But the one who suddenly just appeared out of nowhere is Paul George of the Indiana Pacers. This guy is very talented, and has made a name for himself. I would say someone to build a team around. Yes, I said it, a franchise player and at 22 years of age, he can only get better.

When was the last time you heard of an NBA player coming out of Fresno State?  I actually had to do research to get the answer; Melvin Ely, back in 2002. He was a first round pick, selected 12th overall. At age 34, he now plays in the D-league. I guess hes still developing. George is actually the fourth player to come out of Fresno State, and be selected in the first round by a team in the past 13 years. He was drafted the highest at #10.  George has made significant progress on his development, earning the Most Improved Player Award (MIP) in only his third season. George is very athletic and has great upside to his game. He can play both sides of the floor, and is quickly getting Pacers' fans to forget about Danny Granger--out for the season. When one star goes down, another one quickly rises, at least every GM hopes so.

Thus a star was born. When Granger went down, George didn't back-off from the pressure. He knew, someone had to bring the intensity every night like Granger did. In fact, he grabbed the opportunity and dunked it in. It is now his team. The only difference between George and Granger is the former is more of a complete player, he shoots, he drives, draws fouls, and plays DEFENSE people! That's Pacer basketball in a nutshell. He doesn't start fights to try and get into opponents' head like Granger did against LeBron James in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in 2012. He's not a dirty player, but yes the Pacers play physical basketball. They're just picking on the Atlanta Hawks, making them look soft (and Atlanta preferred to match-up against Indiana as oppose to the Heat?--Ed).

"We naturally just play physical," George said. "It wasn't like, 'Hey, let's play physical, let's retaliate.' That's just how we play. That's how we approach the game. We just have to keep playing how we play."

How physical did they get?  Well they had 10 steals and 5 blocks. George accounting for four steals and one block. He plays DEFENSE people! To me, he's a better player than Granger. Him and the Pacers simply make the game harder for opponents. Just ask Atlanta, now down 0-2 in their first round playoff series.  They play physical, tough, over-powering defense. They're a #3 seed for a reason. Then, when they get their crowd behind them, its just harder to beat them at Bankers Life Fieldhouse (30-11 at home).  They were ranked first in rebounds in the regular season and second in points allowed.  I can't reiterate this enough: they play DEFENSE people!

How did George fare against the Hawks?  Well, in their first two playoff games of the series, he messed around and got a triple-double in the first game and followed that up on Wednesday with 27 points, eight rebounds, three assists, four steals and a block.  George, also made his first All-Star appearence this past season. Yeah, I would say a franchise player. It's no wonder Larry Bird won the Executive of the Year Award last season.  He knew how to build a team. Putting George around a solid point guard in George Hill and a big body in Roy Hibbert in the post. Thanks to George, they are a solid team and will be for years with George leading them. A former bulldog, that I can remember.

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PLOTSKY'S POSITION: The Josh Smith Chronicles

Dan P

Everything you ever wanted to know about Josh Smith and NBA economics.

Headache—1. A pain located in the head; 2. An annoying or bothersome person…

Can you name the most talked-about player in recent NBA trade circles?  If you said Atlanta Hawks forward, Josh Smith, you’d be correct!  I put a definition just above this portion that best sums up what I think of Josh Smith--a headache.  Now to be clear, not all headaches are bad.  He is such a unique player; he’s often a headache for the opposition to figure out how to play against him.  

Smith also has the nasty habit of forgetting what makes him an unconventional commodity in the NBA and, therefore, marketable.  First, let’s get one thing straight.  Unlike other North American sports’, the NBA is solely dependent, financially on the quality of its stars.  Win-Loss records in the NBA sell tickets, but star players buys fans for an owner (“Puts asses in the seats,” yells out the typical UFC fan—Ed).  A team’s popularity can ebb and flow during eras of feast or famine and transcendent stars like LeBron James really do only happen every so often.  

Once you peel back the layers of the NBA hierarchy, it becomes very difficult to differentiate the levels of talent amongst the league's 1A and 1B class of players.  I find this is where a high percentage of the league's bad, lucrative contracts are inked.  They aren't quite stars that can lead a franchise, but definitely above “role player status.”  

Under the new CBA (collective bargaining agreement), a max-level player is eligible for a $100 million dollar contract over 5 years, where the fifth year is only attainable if the player is re-signing with his original team.  Without going through the names, there are only about 12 players in the NBA, in most given years that are worthy of this max contract for what they mean to a franchise’s success.  So this means, in simple math, that there are more teams in the NBA that would have the money for a “max guy,” but there are too few players of this caliber to go around.  Take also into consideration the assemblies of “Big 3's” and that uber-talent pool is being dispersed less.  This often leads to over-payment of dwindling returns and, for many teams, it’s a catch-22.  In order for small markets to bring players to their cities, they have to overpay their worth without really achieving long-term success. Now it's ok to do this occasionally, but when a team has to field rosters in this manor to be relevant, then problems occur.

So what is a fair value for someone like Josh Smith?  If I’m applying for a GM position with a team and the owner informed me that Smith is our best player on the roster and there was little wiggle room to make significant changes over the next few years, I would find the nearest window and fling myself from it.  But if Smith was the third best player on the team, even with cap constraints, I think we would be able to work something out.  

His pedigree of being a tremendous athlete who plays both ends of the floor, combining speed and size, is a huge asset.  While not a great spot up shooter or shot creator, he always manages to find clever ways to get easier baskets, despite only playing with average point guards in his career such as Jeff Teague, Kirk Hinrich, and NBA relic, Mike Bibby a few years back.  Finding a point guard who can run a true pick and roll with Smith should boost his FG% to that of elite around 50% (Smith is a career 46%FG).  Such destinations that have been rumored are the

San Antonio Spurs

Los Angeles Lakers

Brooklyn Nets

(And most recently, the Philadelphia 76ers—Ed)

The first three teams mentioned would be prime candidates as they possess point guards who excel in pick and roll scenarios (Steve Nash/Deron Williams/Tony Parker).  Even more coincidental is the fact that all three of those teams are slightly older in age and all sport a very solid center (Dwight Howard/Tim Duncan/Brook Lopez).

…Side Note: Yes, for argument’s sake, Tim Duncan has played center for the Spurs this year…  

This is a really nice setup for Smith who can be free to roam the weak side of the court and respond to threats down low by blocking the shooter from behind or oblique angles. Not to mention an infusion of youth to the Lakers or Spurs would be a very welcome addition to those franchises allowing them to compete with the younger teams in the playoffs (i.e. Oklahoma City Thunder).  

But the cost for Smith may be too high to take on long-term.  He currently makes over $13 million dollars in salary and at age 27, is just starting to enter his physical prime.  It would be hard to imagine any team being able to convince him to stay after a trade from the Hawks for anything less than $18 million per year, which is just so close to the max as it is, that I would be hard-pressed not to say that more than one team will offer him the max.  It's just the nature of inflation in the NBA.  Perhaps $20 million for Josh Smith is fair, so let’s make this hypothetical: what is LeBron James really worth to the league and the Miami Heat in salary per year?  Without being able to recall the source, I have heard LeBron, between tickets, merchandise, and marketing, is probably worth between $35 million and $50 million in payroll dollars to a franchise per year simply because of the high potential revenue streams that he provides.  But under the CBA rules, LeBron can only earn a max, $20 million per year (he actually makes less since he took less money to join the Heat, a fact most people do not credit him with).  So by capping what the top players in the NBA can earn, naturally lesser players will come within the max number by virtue of demand (NBA teams) being higher than supply (true NBA stars).          

Potential Spurs-Hawks Trade

Spurs receive: Josh Smith and Anthony Morrow

Hawks Receive: Tiago Splitter/DeJuan Blair/Nando de Colo/Stephen Jackson plus a first round pick and $3 million in cash.

It's not the sexy big name trade that someone like a Josh Smith would bring back in return, but in this deal the Hawks get two young bigs, a young, cheap point guard, and a large expiring contract in Jackson at about $10 million dollars.  Looking at the roster, it’s easy to spot the number of players on the Hawks’ roster set to expire.  Take out Smith and Morrow for the trade and between Jackson (from the Spurs), Devin Harris, Zaza Pachulia, Kyle Korver, Johan Petro,Ivan Johnson, and Anthony Tolliver you can see they would have roughly $36 million coming off the books for 2014, while holding a starting core of Teague, Marvin Williams, Al Horford, and Splitter.  Being in the Eastern Conference, where competition isn't the best, and the amount of money to play with for the upcoming free agent classes, the Hawks can set themselves up for a relatively, short rebuilding phase. 

NBA LESSONS: v2.1

Dan P

Adidas, Nike: let's call it even?
(photo courtesy of Ed Mancia)

Random NBA thoughts by Dan P. 

1.) Somehow, the Boston Celtics are 7-1 without star point guard, Rajon Rondo. 

It's perplexing how the Celtics have been winning since the Rondo injury.  They’ve ranked near the bottom third of the league (18th overall) averaging a mere 96.3 points per game while averaging a tremendous 23.5 assists per game (4th overall).  How the Celtics will continue to keep the high assists numbers is highly questionable.

For all the hype surrounding this win streak, I chalk it up to the Celtics’ veterans who were tired of hearing they couldn't win without Rondo.  Poke an old elephant with a stick and it's still sure to charge.  Ultimately the age of the team and the rigors of the playoffs will doom them; it’s no mystery.  

That's not to say the Celtics can't make some noise come playoff time.  The East is wide open and no team has yet to solidify itself as the true No. 2 seed in the Conference.  

With all that being said, I just can’t picture them going too far without Rondo.

2.) The Brooklyn Nets are pursuing a trade with the Atlanta Hawks for Josh Smith.  

The Hawks are looking for a young center so a third team is likely in the mix.  Look for the following young centers/rebounders on the block: 

• Marcin Gortat-- 11.4 Points Per Game; 8.7 Rebounds Per Game
• JaVale McGee--  10PPG, 5RPG
• DeAndre Jordan-- 9PPG, 7.3RPG
• J.J. Hickson-- 12.9PPG, 10.6RPG
• Nikola Pekovic--  15.8PPG, 8.8RPG
• Kris Humphries-- 5.8PPG, 6.2RPG

3.) The Golden State Warriors will be displaying a new jersey this season with sleeves.

I'm on the fence with these new Golden State jerseys from Adidas, but I'll get to that in a bit. The fabled golden sleeves make their debut February 22nd against the San Antonio Spurs and the team is very excited at the opportunity to start a new trend in the NBA.  The jersey itself is golden yellow with less outlining and stripes than their regular home/road jerseys.  It has a two color "V" style neck design that is reminiscent of the official's jerseys and the sleeves themselves are really only quarter cut length or short t-shirt length.  

When we see changes like this, our initial thought is to run, run far away and cry foul.  However, it only takes a few valid stars like a LeBron James or Kevin Durant (both currently employed by Nike--Ed)  to vouch for them and have their teams also produce these alternatives and then the jersey becomes part of the NBA.  

Everyone thought the Oregon Ducks (also Nike--Ed) were crazy for essentially playing in a different jersey every game but that's what sells and that's what the players want to wear.  Everything is a brand and brands are meant to be recognized.  And if any sport can make it work, its the NBA where fashion is just as important as the tradition.  

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