MARDI GRAS MADNESS: The Evil Empire

Felipe M

We continue on our reviews for our fantasy baseball league, Mardi Gras Madness.  Please take some time to read the St Bernard Giants outlook.  

The next team is the newest owner in our league, but by no means is he a rookie to fantasy baseball.  Let's take a look at how our resident Yankee fan fared in his first draft in this league. 

CENTRAL DIVISION--The Evil Empire (from Illinois by way of New York)

BATTING LINEUP

Like: Strong left side of the infield with Ryan Zimmerman and Troy Tulowitzki.  As mentioned before, I truly believe that Tulo is the best SS in baseball, but there are injury concerns with him.  In the last 3 seasons, he’s only played in 64% of the Rockies’ games and has not played in over 150 games since 2009.  Carlos Gonzalez is on the squad as well as he’ll be showing off his power/speed combo. 

Dislike: Nelson Cruz, even though he has enough power to be a relevant fantasy player, is just too impatient for my taste.  He’s projected to post an on-base% of .326.  As an owner who had Carlos Beltran on his fantasy team last year, seeing him run out of gas late in 2012 was a tremendous letdown.  He did play in 150 games, but at 36 years-old, will he be able to get through a full season in 2013?  Adam Jones’ value comes from his counting stats, but eventually, the poor approach at the plate and the relatively low on-base% will catch up to him and screw his fantasy owners.  And even though Dan Uggla was picked in round five (virtual 12^th round) of the draft, Uggla’s fall from the top of the 2B list should be alarming.

Look Out For: Manny Machado as his year can go either way: he will either flourish this season with the Orioles or his impatience will catch up to him and they will be forced to send him back to the Minors.  

2013 Hitting Projections
Player	Team	Pos	BB/K	AB/K	AB/HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB
Nelson Cruz	Texas	RF	0.35	4.30	21.07	0.326	0.484	0.809	10
Dan Uggla	Atlanta	2B	0.51	3.55	22.01	0.344	0.425	0.769	3
Adam Jones	Baltimore	CF	0.26	5.06	21.69	0.338	0.494	0.831	13
Manny Machado	Baltimore	3B	0.33	4.96	28.24	0.301	0.429	0.730	9

Bench: The Empire had a very interesting bench as the “homer” in him had him pick up a few Yankee players. Backing up Tulo will be Derek Jeter.  Currently, free-swinging, Adam LaRoche is starting at 1B, but most likely taking his place will be Mark Teixeira.  Kevin Youkilis is a good piece to have on your team because he qualifies at 1B/3B and can also be placed on the DH spot.  Victor Martinez was accidentally picked as a catcher, but he will only qualify at DH this season (until he plays 5 games at the backstop), but the team was able to acquire Matt Wieters after the draft in a trade.  Both are good options at catcher.  Even V-Mart makes for a great DH.  

PITCHING

Like: Johnny Cueto and James Shields are both top 25 pitchers.  Jeff Samardzija fell into our 3^rd Tier list because of his BB/9, but when he has his control working, he can be pretty dominant.  Derek Holland can be useful on the right team and this club is right for him as a middle of the rotation starter.  Ryan Vogelsong is the last member of a solid 6-man rotation. 

Dislike: I’m still skeptical about R.A. Dickey.  I’ve explained before about distrusting kucklers, but his projections were good enough to place him ahead of teammate Shields on my top 25 list.  Clearly, this owner did not read my analysis on Justin Masterson.  

2013 Pitching Projections
Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/9
Justin Masterson	Cleveland	2.09	6.85	3.27	9.26	1.39	0.73
Ryan Vogelsong	San Francisco	2.28	7.56	3.32	8.52	1.32	0.77
Jeff Samardzija	Cubs	2.33	8.82	3.78	7.98	1.31	1.02
Derek Holland	Texas	2.73	7.66	2.81	8.51	1.26	1.07
Brandon League	Los Angeles	2.13	6.75	3.18	8.34	1.28	0.53
Chris Perez	Cleveland	2.70	8.84	3.27	7.04	1.15	0.82

Bullpen: One of my favorite closers to pick on, Chris Perez is on the ballclub.  Bad enough that he can be a bit loose with his words and actions, but sometimes he goes through these stretches where he loses control and command of his pitches.  Brandon League has so many people rooting against him as they await for Kenley Jansen to take over in Los Angeles.  League’s stuff and projections also make him a questionable choice at closer. 

PREDICTION: Pretty good team despite the fact that it is being run by a new owner.  Starting pitching and offense might be good enough to keep this team in playoff contention, but they also have plenty of hitters that are susceptible to prolonged slumps.  In a fantasy points’ league like this one where you lose points for strikeouts, it can prove to be difference between making the playoffs and watching other teams playing for the championship.  

More fantasy baseball content is available here.

To check out the rest of the Mardi Gras Madness teams, click here. 

MAKING THE PITCH: Toronto Blue Jays

Will R.A. Dickey repeat his Cy Young performance for the Blue Jays?
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos)

Felipe M

We take a look at the projected starting rotations and closer situations of every MLB team.  Of course, this will come from a fantasy perspective.  All cited stats are based on 2013 projections.  

To see how the Washington Nationals pitching staff looks like, click here. 

So how about those Toronto Blue Jays?

PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

1. R.A. Dickey
• Good: All of his projected stats are incredibly impressive.  
• Bad: He's been struggling this spring, most notably a rough outing versus Team Mexico in the WBC. And knuckleballers can be highly unpredictable.  Will be pitching in shorter outfields now that he will be playing in AL EAST and their short ballparks.
2. Brandon Morrow
• Good: K/9 of 8.90 is the main reason why the Blue Jays continue to give him a chance to pitch as a starter for their team.
• Bad: 3.15 BB/9 is a tad high and elevates his WHIP to 1.25.  
3. Mark Buehrle
• Good: Decent K/BB of 2.70 is what makes Buehrle a serviceable fantasy option.
• Bad: Low strikeouts is a major turnoff.  Buehrle's K/9 of 5.09 is slightly higher than Clayton Richard's.  He can also be extremely hittable (9.70 H/9) as he highly depends on pitching to contact.  His WHIP of 1.29 also makes him a risky pick.
4. Josh Johnson
• Good: Not as high of K/9 like teammate Morrow's, but still attractive at 8.03.  HR/9 of 0.60 makes Johnson an intriguing selection for your pitching staff.  Even WHIP of 1.19 makes him a borderline, 2nd tier pitcher.  He's only a few points off potential 1st Tier pitcher, Adam Wainwright. 
• Bad: Injury history makes Johnson a high risk type of player enterig the 2013 season.  BB/9 of 2.92 is not too high, but it is high enough to lower his K/BB to 2.75.  Edwin Jackson also has an identical K/BB.  
5. Ricky Romero
• Good: 6.90 K/9 is adequate in fantasy baseball.  Tampa Rays' pitcher, Jeremy Hellickson, has a similar K/9.  He also won't hurt himself with giving up the long ball (HR/9 of 1.01).  He's all but locked up the 5th spot for 2013.
• Bad: Romero has been roughed up this spring.  Management has gone as far as to modify his delivery, with very little positive results.  His projections are a wreck: 1.62 K/BB, 4.25 BB/9, 1.46 WHIP.

CLOSER

1. Casey Janssen
• Good: 4.64 K/BB makes him a legit closer option (higher K/BB than Jason Motte). 
• Bad: Relatively low K/9 of 9.44 drops his stock considerably.  Although he's listed as the Jays' #1 option for saves, he's currently recovering from shoulder surgery and the Jays are not sure if he will be ready for the start of the season.

FANTASY ADVICE

As far as Janssen goes, he proved to be a reliable closer, but health concerns and numbers that suggest his lack of dominance in the 9th inning makes him a risk in 2013.  Breathing down his neck is Sergio Santos, himself attempting to come back from shoulder inflammation.  Santos proved to be a decent closer in 2011, but struggled with walks.  I personally would like to avoid this messy situation, but for those of you who need saves, I would roll the dice with Janssen and handcuff him with a player like Santos to minimize the risk.

The Blue Jays rotation is an interesting one as each pitcher brings something different every 5th game.  As bad as Romero might be this season, the only reason he's listed here is because he is a lock to finish the spring as the team's 5th starter, despite his shaky performance so far, and because he was, at one point, supposed to be the future ace of this team.  Should be interesting to see if he can rebound, but so far, it's not looking too promising.  In the meantime, J.A. Happ is licking his chops at a chance to take over if the Jays lose patience with him.  

If Buehrle becomes available, I would still avoid him.  An aging, pitch-to-contact pitcher is just not the person I'm looking for to fill out my 7-man rotation.  I understand that fantasy owners like him because of his durability and control, but he's just not my type of pitcher.

Dickey is also an enigma because I just don't trust knuckleballers.  They can be unhittable in one start, and get plastered in the next one.  Dickey did end up the best pitcher in the NL last season as he was rewarded with the Cy Young Award, and his projections are impressive, but I prefer to have a pitcher with more consistency and one that doesn't solely depend on a gimmick to get through a season.  At most, Dickey would be my 4th best pitcher on my team.  Nevertheless, he will be picked to be a top-tier pitcher on many fantasy teams.

Josh Johnson might end up being a real steal in 2013.  He kind of petered out at the end of 2012 and could be very inconsistent, but had a decent 2012 as he was able to dominate hitters, but was more unlucky than anything last season.  With better run support, he can still earn many wins and his K/9 might rise once again.  

If Morrow can continue to limit his walks, Morrow can see himself move up the rankings in 2013.  Like Johnson, with better run support, Morrow can exceed expectations.

More MLB content is available here. 

2012 MLB PROSPECT REVIEW: #60-56

Felipe M

The following is a review of a list that was compiled way back in March of 2012.  "2012 Outlooks" are based on a summation of scouting reports (entering the 2012 MLB season) of each player condensed into a sentence or two for easier reading.

60. Robbie Erlin--SP--San Diego Padres

• 2012 Outlook: "Smooth delivery, works both sides of plate with efficiency."
• 2012 Achievements: Pitched in Arizona Fall League
• Conclusion: Erlin missed 3 months due to elbow tendinitis, but reports show that he may not be too far away from making Padres' roster. At 22, he's displayed amazing control. He even impressed while pitching in AFL. There's a small concern that he might be a flyball pitcher, but we'll see how he bounces back in 2013. 

59. Travis d'Arnaud--C--New York Mets

• 2012 Outlook: "Better than J.P. Arencibia, but will have to wait."
• 2012 Achievements: #1 Prospect, Best Hitter for Average, and Best Power Hitter in Toronto Blue Jays' farm system; #2 Prospect in Pacific Coast League.
• Conclusion: d'Arnaud was traded to the New York Mets along with John Buck for R.A. Dickey and Josh Thole. Very likely that he will begin 2013 in the Minors. His season abruptly ended in June when he tore PCL ligament in knee. Before the injury, the young catcher was posting an increase in batting average, on-base%, SLG%, and OPS. Despite his slim chances of breaking with the Mets out of Spring Training, he will most likely take over catching duties for the Mets, eventually, in 2013.

58. Zach Lee--SP--Los Angeles Dodgers

• 2012 Outlook: "Future top of the rotation starter, but won't compete for Big League team until 2013."
• 2012 Achievements: #5 and #13 Prospect in both California and Southern Leagues, respectively.
• Conclusion: The Dodgers are so fully loaded at pitching (both rotation and bullpen) that it is highly probable that Lee will begin season in the Minors in '13. His control was as good as advertised in 2012, posting 2.4 BB/9 and 3.22 K:BB. He does have a H/9 of 9.0 in Minor League career. Should be interesting to see if that number decreases a bit next season.

57. Anthony Gose--OF--Toronto Blue Jays

• 2012 Outlook: "Progressed in Minors and is still 'blazing' fast."
• 2012 Achievements: #8 Prospect in California League as well as Best Baserunner and Defensive OF; Appeared in 166 at bats for the Blue Jays
• Conclusion: Gose's speed was on full display with the Jays in 2012, snatching 15 stolen bases. Unfortunately, Gose struggled mightily with big league pitching as well. He posted a BB/K of .29 (compared to .49 in Triple-A). Gose might have to start 2013 in Minors. 

56. Wil Myers--OF--Tampa Rays

• 2012 Outlook: "Struggled in Double-A, but had good Arizona Fall League (2011). Sharp batting eye might mean turnaround."
• 2012 Achievements: Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year; #1 Prospect, Best Hitter for Average, and Power Hitter in Royals' farm system; #3 and #1 Texas and Pacific Coast League Prospect, respectively; Best Power Hitter in PCL. 
• Conclusion: The Royals used Myers as trade-bait to acquire an established Starting Pitcher, which they accomplished when they acquired James Shields. Myers has also been repeatedly been compared to former Braves' great, Dale Murphy (needs to be inducted into Cooperstown already!). Myers destroyed Minor League pitching, posting Slash Lines of .314/.387/.600/.987. His .44 BB/K could use improvement, but Myers looks to be the real deal.  

Prospects #65-61 can be reviewed here.

Prospects #55-51 can be reviewed here.