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Showing posts with label Zack Greinke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Zack Greinke. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

HIRED ARMS: Like a Phoenix Ignition

Felipe M

We previously talked about struggling pitchers that are worth monitoring as they may still turn their seasons around. 

We now take a look at the pitchers that have skyrocketed up the waiver wire charts.  The following pitchers are owned in less than 50% of CBS fantasy baseball leagues and all saw at least a 5% increase in ownership in the last week.

Besides evaluating these pitchers, we try to figure out if their recent hype is warranted or overblown.

Patrick Corbin--Arizona Diamondbacks--42%: Corbin was a pitcher I was excited about in the spring as he pitched marvelously, en route to securing the final rotation spot in Arizona.  He's pitched well enough to win and has yet to give up a homerun, but his 1.25 WHIP and his six strikeouts in 12 innings pitched makes me think that his 2-0 win-loss record is more fluke than skill.  Corbin is more of a groundball pitcher, telling me he needs a lot of contact from opposing hitters (and a lot of luck) to be an effective pitcher.  However, his groundout-to-flyout ratio is only 1.3 so far.  His H/9 of 8.25 shows that he's been more lucky than good this season.  Good short-term pitcher to have while he's hot, but I would cut bait at the first sign of struggle.  Then again, I wouldn't have him on my team to begin with.  

Andrew Bailey--Boston Red Sox--41%: So apparently, Boston needs a new closer.  Current closer Joel Hanrahan is on the DL and Bailey should be the team's primary closer in his absence.  He did blow a save on Monday, but has pitched pretty well this season, posting a K/9 of 15.28.  Bailey has accumulated 81 saves in his career, so he has the experience.  Go pick him up now!

Carlos Villanueva--Chicago Cubs--32%: We've mentioned before how Villanueva can be a sneaky pitcher to slot into your rotation.  Well, he's pitched well enough to be 2-0 this season, but lack of run support has been his doom.  The strikeouts aren't as high as I'd like, but all other stats are tantalizing owners to pick him up immediately.  The downside to him is that his role with the Cubs seems to be temporary and he is a flyball pitcher that struggled with keeping the ball in the park last season.  However, he's pitched well enough to warrant a roster spot on fantasy teams and is worth keeping around until the Cubs say otherwise.

Nick Tepesch--Texas Rangers--27%: He's had mixed results in his two starts this season, but has been a pleasant surprise in terms of K/BB.  Unfortunately, he's been tagged with a base-hit per inning, thus far.  However, the silver lining is that his groundout/flyout ratio is near 4:1.  As long as he can induce plenty of groundballs, doesn't hurt himself with walks, and continues to keep up his strikeout rate, he should be fine.  

Chris Capuano--Los Angeles Dodgers--26%: Summoned from the bullpen to take over for Zack Greinke, who is out with a collarbone injury, Capuano is not a bad selection if you're in desperate need for a starting pitcher.  He had a decent 2012 and has pitched pretty well in relief this season.  Last year, he had a K/BB of 3/1.  Age, a short leash (Ted Lilly waits in the bullpen in the event that Capuano struggles), and limited work are the negatives, but in the interim, he's a solid choice to add to your roster.  

Bartolo Colon--Oakland A's--19%: He's pitched pretty well since coming back from PED suspension.  He hasn't been dominant, but has definitely relied on veteran moxie.  Strikeout totals are low and he's giving up a lot of base-hits, but has yet to allow a walk and that kind of control is always a major advantage.  He's recorded more flyouts than groundouts and playing in Oakland, he can afford to have hitters put the ball in the air, although he's already given up two homeruns this season.  Colon is not my first choice to plug into my pitching staff, but as a last resort option, you could do a lot worse.  However, age and a tough, upcoming schedule--is scheduled to pitch against Budd Norris and Jon Lester--would make me not want to pick him up.

John Lannan--Philadelphia Phillies--11%: As mentioned before, I'm the biggest "Lannan-hater" out there.  He is the epitome of a pitcher I refuse to have on my team.  However, to his credit, he's pitched well enough to win both of his starts this season as he's only given up one walk and has only allowed 8 hits, but has been a victim of poor run-support.  The low strikeouts is typical of Lannan, but his finesse style has been on full display early on as he holds a 3:1, groundout:flyout ratio.  The negative on Lannan: he's John Lannan.  His 2013 start just reeks of fluky luck and it seems that he's performance is a product of an easy schedule (facing the Royals in his first start and then the Marlins in his second start).  His next couple of starts should prove to be a bit more challenging as he'll pitch against the Reds and against the Pirates with A.J. Burnett scheduled to make the start opposite Lannan. 

So that's a quick look at a few pitchers that have filled the fantasy baseball world with a lot of buzz recently.  A lot of these guys are short-term solutions, but sometimes going with the hot hand is the best choice.  

More MLB content is available here.  

Friday, March 29, 2013

MAKING THE PITCH: Los Angeles Dodgers

Felipe M

We take a look at the projected starting rotations and closer situations of every MLB team.  Of course, this will come from a fantasy perspective.  All cited stats are based on 2013 projections. 


We marveled at how loaded the St. Louis Cardinals' pitching staff was.

The Los Angeles Dodgers also have depth, but in a different kind of way.  

2013 Pitching Projections
Player
Team
K/BB
K/9
BB/9
H/9
WHIP
HR/9
Zack Greinke
Los Angeles
3.89
8.83
2.27
7.47
1.08
0.83
Clayton Kershaw
Los Angeles
3.70
9.28
2.51
7.05
1.06
0.60
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Los Angeles
3.17
8.31
2.62
8.80
1.27
0.89
Josh Beckett
Los Angeles
2.84
7.68
2.70
8.79
1.28
1.01
Chad Billingsley
Los Angeles
2.30
7.53
3.27
8.56
1.32
0.71
Brandon League
Los Angeles
2.13
6.75
3.18
8.34
1.28
0.53














Clayton Kershaw is the best left-handed starting pitcher and the 2nd best overall pitcher coming into the 2013 season.  What more do you want to know?

The Korean southpaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu had himself a very productive spring, but it remains to be seen how he will produce and endure in the Big Leagues.  Predicting Major League success from pitchers coming from Japan, Korea, or other parts in Asia has often been a difficult task.  Ryu, however, seems to have a good, pitching repertoire.  Plus he's only 26 so perhaps his projections are not too far to reach.  I cautiously listed him as a 3rd Tier pitcher, behind Miguel Gonzalez.  He might be worth the risk if you decide to draft him ahead of other 3rd Tier pitchers like Homer Bailey, Jeremy Hellickson, and Joe Blanton.  

Josh Beckett is the pitcher that follows Ryu on the starting pitchers' list.  Even if Beckett can attain the projected stats, that's still not a bad season out of him.  Especially when you consider how disastrous he was last year.  

Chad Billingsley has seen very little action this spring because of a bruised right index finger.  There's even a risk of him starting the year on the DL.  A concern for a guy who failed to start in more than 30 games last year for the first time since 2007.  However, if he stays healthy, despite the high WHIP, he can still be a serviceable pitcher in fantasy leagues.  Walks will drive you nuts, but considering he posted a BB/9 of +4 in 2011, his projected BB/9 is actually an improvement from the righty who has struggled in that aspect throughout his career.

Speaking of injuries, Zack Greinke seems to be at 50/50 to start the season on time.  He is questionable as he's recovering from elbow inflammation.  Other recent reports indicate that he will be ready, so stay tuned.  When Greinke is healthy, he's definitely a top 10 pitcher.

The closer situation is a mess as the Dodgers will be going with Brandon League, but based on his projections, he may not be the right option for the job.  Out of all the current closers, League has the 4th worst K/BB.  Many think it's only a matter of time before Kenley Jansen will take over. Jansen has been compared to Craig Kimbrel--the best closer in baseball.  You might want to handcuff these two or roll the dice with Jansen if you need saves and are banking on the idea that League won't last long in that role.  This is a situation to keep a close eye on as the season progresses.

Finally, the Dodgers are definitely deep in pitching, but not necessarily in a good way as they all have issues that prevented them from being on the starting rotation.  Injuries to Greinke and Billingsley brings hope to these pitchers so it's worth listing them:

  • Currently, Chris Capuano is listed as the #5 starter, but he comes with durability issues, advanced age, a disappointing finish in 2012, and is prone to giving up a lot of homeruns.
  • Aaron Harang 
  • Ted Lilly
    • Both pitchers are getting up there in age and have seen some production decrease in the last few seasons or so.  Plus the Dodgers would prefer if they'd stay in the bullpen.
  • Numerous pitching prospects, including Zach Lee
So as you can see, the Dodgers have depth in terms of pitchers that can step in and do the job, but they are not overwhelmingly, amazing options to place on a fantasy team.  They will have to wait for an injury to get their chance.

Thursday, March 28, 2013

MARDI GRAS MADNESS: Beer Belly Mashers

Felipe M

I continue to review our league's fantasy baseball team.  Up next is a long time nemesis and the only person I wish "bad luck" for the 2013 season.

But first, take a look at team Texas Sooner's loaded squad if you haven't all ready. 

EAST DIVISION--BEER BELLY MASHERS (out of Kansas City)

BATTING LINEUP

Like: You know your team is in trouble when Dustin Pedroia might be your best power hitter.  No disrespect to Paul Goldschmidt or Andre Ethier, but Pedroia has the track record as a complete hitter, especially with power.  And that’s not saying much.  I’m a fan of Jon Jay’s as his high on-base% makes him useable in fantasy leagues.  I also believe in Eric Hosmer to turn his career around and become the hitter everybody thought he could be, but time is running out for the guy.  Andrelton Simmons is expected to struggle, but if he can streamline the things that made him a successful hitter in the Minors, he can definitely hold his own in the Majors and become a productive player in fantasy leagues.

Dislike: Juan Pierre as a LF is just so wrong.  I’m skeptical of Salvador Perez and I think he could prove to be a bust, but most fantasy “experts” like his prospects for 2013.  I actually liked Matt Carpenter coming into the draft because he would eventually qualify at 2B.  But as a starting 3B?  I’m not buying that.  Dexter Fowler as a DH is giving the frustrating player too much respect.  Even Ethier, as the sole power hitter in the OF is disastrous. 

Look Out For: Wil Myers was picked as the #1 prospect in baseball by many publications.  Whether he plays this season or not is pretty doubtful, but at this point, he’s probably not available in a majority of leagues.  Oscar Taveras finished as the #1 prospect on this site.  Many publications believe he could be the 
1st prospect to be called up for the Cardinals.

2013 Hitting Projections
Player
Team
Pos
BB/K
AB/K
AB/HR
OBP
SLG
OPS
SB
Salvador Perez
Kansas City
C
0.35
8.58
35.00
0.327
0.435
0.762
0
Eric Hosmer
Kansas City
1B
0.56
6.01
28.87
0.340
0.437
0.777
15
Andrelton Simmons
Atlanta
SS
0.57
8.69
70.27
0.331
0.400
0.731
13
Dexter Fowler
Colorado
CF
0.54
3.69
41.71
0.367
0.445
0.812
15
Paul Goldschmidt
Arizona
1B
0.44
3.59
22.30
0.352
0.482
0.834
13

PITCHING

Like: Unlike their hitting, pitching is where this team will survive in 2013.  Just look at the names: Josh Beckett, Gio Gonzalez, Zack Greinke, Matt Harvey, CC Sabathia, Jeremy Hellickson and even Dan Haren provides the team with a loaded pitching staff.

Dislike: After viewing their lineup, I’m left wondering if it was really necessary to add Jarrod Parker and Wandy Rodriguez to the team.  

Bullpen: Not a good strategy of acquiring shaky closers like Greg Holland, Tom Wilhelmsen, and Jason Grilli when their lineup is so weak and lacking depth.

2013 Pitching Projections
Player
Team
K/BB
K/9
BB/9
H/9
WHIP
HR/A
Jason Grilli
Pittsburgh
2.72
9.87
3.63
6.68
1.15
1.02
Greg Holland
Kansas City
2.60
10.17
3.91
6.52
1.16
0.52
Tom Wilhelmsen
Seattle
2.03
7.73
3.80
7.10
1.21
0.76
Wandy Rodriguez
Pittsburgh
2.47
6.99
2.83
9.64
1.39
0.87
Jarrod Parker
Oakland
2.32
7.73
3.33
8.44
1.31
0.80










Look Out For: I've mentioned Harvey already, but it’s worth noting again that he is definitely a key figure in the Mets’ future and did an admirable job late in 2012.  There’s lots of promise with this kid. 

PREDICTION: Typical Beer Belly team as he’s always a powerhouse in terms of pitching and usually does a great job in complementing that strength with formidable hitters.  Unfortunately, this year, the team is too unbalanced as even this serviceable lineup will not be enough to help this team reach for a championship in 2013.  This team definitely personifies the definition of greed and in the end, it might cost them.

More fantasy baseball is available here.