Q&A: A Different Perspective

Does anyone else in fantasy baseball cause more headaches
than this guy?
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos)

Josh C

(Editor's note: Josh was kind enough to answer a few, select fantasy baseball questions from this past week.  You may know Josh as our resident Sacramento Kings' fan and is one of my biggest fantasy sports' rival, most notably defeating my baseball team in our league's 2012 championship game.  He brings a different view on what he thinks makes for a successful fantasy baseball season).

QUESTION #1: "Need OF help and I have to choose between Coco Crisp, Jayson Werth, and Melky Cabrera.  Who would you choose?"

Of course, Crisp and Werth are currently injured at the moment so Melky Cabrera is the default answer.  However, if all three are healthy, I would definitely have Werth as my third choice.  So it boils down between Cabrera and Crisp and what kind of OF your team is looking for.  In terms of pop, Melky has a slight advantage, but Crisp is clearly the better base stealer.  However, if you're looking for batting average, Cabrera is your man as I highly doubt that Crisp can continue to hit over .280.  Plus Cabrera is hitting in a better lineup than Crisp.  Toronto is struggling now, but when they turn things around, I want to have Cabrera in my lineup so he can reap the benefits and starts helping my team.

QUESTION #2: "Is Kyle Kendrick for real?"

Depends on your definition of "real."  Is he as good as the numbers he's putting up?  No, but he's one of those guys that you "power stream" (meaning you play them against everyone except the "power" lineups).  I say he can finish the year with 12-14 wins, 3.34 ERA, WHIP of 1.19, and approximately 140 strikeouts.  Not too shabby.

QUESTION #3: "I'm a B.J. Upton owner.  Now what?"  (I too have B.J. Upton on my current squad--Ed)

Huge fan of Justin Upton, but never been a fan of B.J.  That being said, he can still contribute in all the major categories, except batting average and I still figure that he can hit around .240.  Without doing the math, for him to have a "spike" from his current average of .138 to .240 means he's going to have a hot stretch at some point to get there.  I think the fact that Justin is there with him this season is going to help him out of this slump.  I wouldn't drop just yet and would continue to keep riding him in my bench until I see a glimmer of hope (if you insist that I should continue to practice patience...--Ed).

QUESTION #4: "Would you trade Giancarlo Stanton for Matt Holliday?"

Even if assuming that Stanton is healthy and Holiday can continue to be a durable player at his advanced age, I think I would still have to say 'yes' on this one.  I don't believe Holliday is as good of a player as Stanton, but I was already doubting Stanton entering this season (and even long before I realized just how bad this Miami Marlins' lineup would be).  His statements about how he felt about the organization after their fire sale in the offseason made me wonder how a guy with a fire inside like that is going to do when his team is the worst in the league and he doesn't have anybody in the lineup to protect him.  The current results have answered all of my questions.  Nobody is pitching to him, but then again, he's not walking that much either.  That tells me that he's getting frustrated at not being pitched to and swinging at pitches he wouldn't swing at in the past.  

I think the homeruns will come eventually this year, however (I'd take the over on 27), but not sure any of the other peripherals or counting stats will come around in 2013.  Conversely, it's very hard to count out a guy when he has uber talent.  

QUESTION #5: "Jim Henderson or Jim Johnson?"

I really want to say Henderson here, but I actually prefer him from a skills standpoint (I don't know about you, but I like my closers to be able to fan the side).  However, for some reason, the Milwaukee Brewers love Axford.  I just have this feeling that if Axford continues pitching well like he has been of late (although he took the loss yesterday against the Pirates--Ed), that they are going to give him another shot (or turn it into some sort of "platoon"/"closer by committee"). 

I have to go with Jim Johnson on this one because of the current solidity of his role. 

QUESTION #6: "Lorenzo Cain or Starlin Marte?"

I like both of these guys, but Marte still hacks a little too much for me to completely believe in his average.  He's going to steal more bases, but I think Cain has more ability to be a multi-way guy.  Slight advantage to Cain.

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LINE DRIVES: v1.0

Suddenly, San Diego has a launching pad for hitters.
(photo courtesy of Felipe M)

Felipe M

I'll be sharing my random thoughts on the MLB games from April 9, 2013.

SO MUCH FOR A PITCHERS' PARK

The Houston Astros beat the Seattle Mariners 16-9 at Safeco Field.  The San Diego Padres won at Petco Park, scoring 9 runs.  We have been waiting in anticipation to see how the changes in dimensions at these two parks would alter offensive production.  Right away, we're seeing changes.

Taking a look back at 2012, only three times did we see teams put up nine or more runs, in one game, last year at Safeco (roughly once every 27 games).  The most runs that one team had accumulated in one game was on October 3, 2012 when the Mariners blanked the Angels, 12-0 (against Jered Weaver, no less).  The most combined runs at Safeco last season occurred on April 17, 2012 when the Mariners and Indians scored 17 total runs.  27 runs were scored between the Astros and Mariners last night.  

Petco was better last year: seven was the number of times teams had scored 9 or more runs in one game last year.  The highs came on September 16, 2012 when the Padres scored a season high at home of 12 runs and they and the Rockies accumulated 23 runs total in that game.  However, only their first game in 2013 and the Padres have all ready scored 9 runs in one game.  

One game does not make a full MLB season, but it's safe to say that after Tuesday's match-ups, both ballparks, in terms of offense, are off to a good start.  

ASTRO WOES

Speaking of the Astros, the 16 runs were the most they have scored since they scored 18 runs in August of 2010.  The Astros defeated the Cardinals, 18-4 in St. Louis.  In that game, none of the Astros hit a homerun in, but they did hit 4 doubles and 1 triple.  SS Angel Sanchez tallied 6 RBI.  This year, the Astros are 0-6 when scoring fewer than 3 runs.  They have all ready failed to score more than 3 runs in 75% of their games.  Bad sign.

METS AT PHILLIES

The Phillies' struggles in the starting rotation have been well-documented as Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay have not pitched up to par early this season.  Thankfully, they have Cliff Lee who pitched a great game against the Mets last night.  It also helped that the Phillies' bats came alive after being shutdown by pitching phenom, Matt Harvey on Monday.  

Unfortunately, it all came at the expense of Mets' pitcher Dillon Gee who had command issues all night.  So far this year, Gee has pitched 9 and a 1/3 innings and has the following stats after 2 starts: 5.8 K/9; 2.9 BB/9 AND HR/9; 12.6 H/9; 1.71 WHIP.  All of this while inducing  more groundouts than flyouts.  We've mentioned how well Gee pitched last season before being shut down for the year because of injury.  But that's the thing about pitchers like Gee.  He has potential to rack up the strikeouts, but deep down, he is a pitch-to-contact pitcher.  When pitchers like Gee don't have their best stuff and can't fight through it, they'll have nights like these.  Should be very interesting how he bounces back in his next start.  

NOW WE CAN START THE SEASON

Washington Nationals' 1B Adam LaRoche had zero hits.  Now he has two hits after his team beat the White Sox last night.  Both of his hits are homeruns.  Talk about an "all-or-nothing" approach.  LaRoche has always had a reputation for being a slow starter for his teams so it's not surprising that's he's off to the slowest of starts this year as well.  But he is struggling so bad that in the game where he hit 2 homers, he also struck out twice.  A deeper look shows that LaRoche, this season has been swinging for more strikes than in years past.  Of the 57% of pitches that are called for strikes, 24% have been of the swing-and-miss variety--his career average is 17%.  Only 12% of those pitches are actually called strikes because of foul balls--he averages 27%.  

So his timing, clearly, is not there yet, but getting back to his all-or-nothing approach, he's hit a lot more flyballs than groundballs so far this season so when he does make contact, he's looking to drive the ball into the air, but only 17% of his contact have been line drives (career line-drive% of 20%).  Because of this approach, he's suffering the worst Balls-in-Play% of his career (only 56% compared to a career 64%) and of those flyballs, 20% are not leaving the infield.  That's a lot of pop outs.  Will have to keep tabs on this guy and reconvene next week for an update.  

PICK YOUR POISON

If you can only have one closer on your team, who would it be: Carlos Marmol  or John Axford?

Outside of strikeouts, Marmol has struggled mightily with control and looks like he's pitching batting practice when he comes out of the bullpen.  Hitters have posted an OPS of 1.490.  Yikes!  It also doesn't help that Marmol is a flyball pitcher who can't produce outs via the flyout (most of his outs this season have come by way of groundouts).  His line-drive% against is 29% and it doesn't help that 27% of the strikes that he throws are put into play (above career average).  Obviously, hitters aren't being fooled or deceived by his pitches as Marmol only has a 13% in swinging-strike%.  And he gets ahead of the hitters more times than not.  55% of the time he throws a first-pitch strike.  32% of hitters see themselves down 0-2 in the count (much higher than his 2012 rate).  But as mentioned before, it's like he's pitching batting practice out there as these hitters, so far, are hungry when they see him out there--Marmol's contact percentage is a high, 80%!

And then there's Axford: he has a line-drive% against of 53%, OPS against of 1.828, a whopping 41% of his strikes are put in play (about twice his career average).  His contact% is much lower than Marmol's however and has a higher swinging-strikes% than Marmol (22%).    Only 19% of hitters see themselves at an 0-2 count.  However, he puts himself at a disadvantage by giving hitters a 3-0 count, 14% of the time (well above his norm).  

So of the two, who has a better chance to rebound?  The numbers are absolutely horrendous and I was trying to look for positives and couldn't find much.  If I have to pick one that is most likely to improve as the season progresses, it's probably Marmol.  At least he's getting ahead of the count more often than Axford.  Maybe it's a sign.  Or maybe it's not.  

And on that sour note...

#BrewersCubs thinking trade now: #marmolfor #axford straight up? #Tradetalk
— Felipe M (@pathological_h8) April 8, 2013

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MARDI GRAS MADNESS: St Bernard Giants

Felipe M

I continue to review our league's fantasy baseball teams.  To read our preview on the Beer Belly Mashers, click here. 

The following team is one of the more successful clubs in our league's history as he dominated with a juiced-up Barry Bonds early on and continued to succeed after he retired and "Fat Albert" took charge of the team.  

WEST DIVISION--St Bernard Giants (fighting out of Louisiana)

BATTING LINEUP

Like: Albert Pujols: that is all.  But he won’t have to carry this team on his own as he has a nice supporting cast this season: Miguel Montero, Brandon Phillips, Marco Scutaro, Alex Gordon, Jose Bautista, and Matt Holliday should be able to reach their projections this season.  

Dislike: I’m just nit-picking at this point, but Michael Young as a starting 3B just seems out-of-place because he’s not the prototypical power-hitter at the position, but I really don’t have a problem with it.  This is as close to a negative I could find on this team.

Look Out For: This is a team full of established veterans so if I have to choose one player to keep an eye on, it will be Kyle Seager as many publications marveled at his potential for 2013.  Seager finished 2012 on a strong note and it will be interesting to see if he can keep up the pace or if his successful September was just a fluke.

Bench: Paul Konerko is just overkill on a team that really didn’t need a big bat like his.  The team needed another starting pitcher so I’m dubious at this pick.  Considering they have Pujols at 1B and Holliday at DH, plus David Ortiz on the DL, when exactly is Konerko going to be used on this squad?  I also like the possible platoon system at CF with Michael Bourn and Alejandro De Aza.  De Aza has a bit more pop, while Bourn was born to run.  It should be interesting to see which of the two will be more productive in our points league this year.  

2013 Hitting Projections
Player	Team	Pos	BB/K	AB/K	AB/HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB
Michael Young	Philadelphia	1B/3B	0.49	7.74	57.50	0.336	0.411	0.746	4
Kyle Seager	Seattle	3B	0.40	5.31	35.18	0.324	0.417	0.741	11
Alejandro De Aza	White Sox	CF	0.44	4.95	55.31	0.345	0.415	0.760	26
Michael Bourn	Cleveland	CF	0.44	4.36	108.24	0.337	0.369	0.706	45

PITCHING

Like: Matt Cain proved last season why he should be considered one of the game’s elite starting pitchers.  And we just explained how good Adam Wainwright is.  Unheralded, Dillon Gee is also on the team.  The club is also waiting for Phil Hughes to come back from injury. They even found a way to sign finesse pitcher, Kyle Lohse.

Dislike: I have yet to read a positive review on the progress of Tim Lincecum in the spring as control, command, and drop in velocity have plagued the former Cy Young winner this spring.  However, he can still rack up the strikeouts and that alone is enough to believe in him.  Nevertheless, this team is depending too much on him to emerge as the team’s 3^rd best starter.  He’s definitely in the right place, but a guy that’s plagued with so many issues is not the way you want to build your top-half of your pitching staff. 

Bullpen: John Axford is looking for a bounce back season and I was surprised to find plenty of publications explaining his struggles last from 2012, but seeing him blow games last season is too fresh on my mind to even consider selecting him for this season.  As much as I have rage for Grant Balfour, it seems that he always finds a way of losing the closers’ spot one way or another, but this might be the year he can be the closer for a full year.  And I've used Steve Cishek as a benchmark to compare other mediocre closers before.  

Look Out For: It will be interesting to see if Vance Worley can overcome elbow issues and a bad spring to be the ace that the Twins are looking for.  He was recently named the team’s Opening Day starter.

2013 Pitching Projections
Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/9
John Axford	Milwaukee	2.73	11.57	4.24	7.84	1.34	0.90
Steve Cishek	Miami	2.17	8.46	3.90	7.52	1.27	0.67
Grant Balfour	Oakland	2.83	10.45	3.70	6.75	1.16	0.64
Vance Worley	Minnesota	2.84	8.28	2.92	8.46	1.26	0.89
Dillon Gee	Mets	2.18	7.11	3.26	8.53	1.31	0.89

PREDICTION: This team has plenty of hitting to make them a threat for the playoffs, but the pitching is missing something as they're depending on breakout years from a few guys.  Cain and Wainwright can definitely carry a staff throughout the year, but eventually, somebody is going to have to step up and if Lincecum continues to struggle, I just don't see who else can emerge as the #3 starter.  Axford and Cishek, at any point, can be replaced as their team's closers.  

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