MARDI GRAS MADNESS: South Jersey Strong Arms

Felipe M

We continue on our reviews for our fantasy baseball league, Mardi Gras Madness.  Please take some time to read about the Houston Steelers. 

Last, but definitely not least is our defending champion and a big time Phillies' fan--and Dallas Cowboys' fan.  What?

CENTRAL DIVISION--So. Jersey Strong Arms (it must be a Jersey thang)

BATTING LINEUP

Like: You can tell this guy is a Phillies’ fan: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins are starting on the team’s infield.  Whether they can take it back to 2008 is another question, but lucky for them, they won’t be doing it on their own as Buster Posey, Andrew McCutchen and Yoenis Cespedes can provide plenty of offense as well.  

2013 Hitting Projections
Player	Team	Pos	BB/K	AB/K	AB/HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB
Yoenis Cespedes	Oakland	LF/CF	0.45	5.05	22.03	0.345	0.482	0.827	16
Buster Posey	San Francisco	C/1B	0.70	5.77	23.61	0.390	0.510	0.900	2
Andrew McCutchen	Pittsburgh	CF	0.64	4.77	22.53	0.380	0.500	0.880	23
Ben Revere	Philadelphia	CF/RF	0.58	10.08	571.33	0.329	0.334	0.663	42
Michael Morse	Seattle	LF/RF	0.24	4.00	21.42	0.326	0.468	0.794	1
Will Middlebrooks	Boston	3B	0.17	3.67	20.80	0.304	0.463	0.767	8

Dislike: I might be too harsh on Will Middlebrooks, but even though he provided a spark for teams last year and showed off his power, he still had plenty of holes in his swing and terrible approach at the plate.  He needs to improve on that aspect of this game is this team expects to repeat as Champions.  And as a Michael Morse owner last season, I understand he was hurt, but that still doesn’t excuse his hacking style at the plate.  And Ben Revere should not be a DH in a fantasy lineup. 

Look Out For: This team has both Billy Hamilton and Jurickson Profar on the same club.  I’m not even sure if both players will be called up this season, but certainly a very interesting strategy to have two players playing in the same position.  Then again, the Reds have been talking about moving Hamilton to the OF and the Rangers have played with the idea of moving their veteran infielders move around just so they can make room for Profar.

Bench: Revere and Carlos Gomez will probably, but questionably be alternating the DH spot.  Gomez has good counting stats, but a disastrous approach at the plate.  Chase Headley can probably become the permanent DH/3B when he gets back from injury.

PITCHING

Like: The Philly theme continues with Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee anchoring the pitching staff.  In support of these two are mixes of young and veteran pitchers with more question marks to their game than anything.  So I will list the ones that have a better chance of succeeding here (not to guarantee that they will, but given the options, I’m speaking in relative terms): Alex Cobb is supposed to bust out this season and was impressive in the spring, especially when you talk about his K/9; Alexi Ogando is a promising pitcher with good, projected numbers.  However, he did struggle this spring, but was able to post impressive strikeout totals; Marco Estrada pitched pretty well in the spring and his projections show that he might be in line for a big year.

2013 Pitching Projections
Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/9
Alexi Ogando	Texas	3.23	8.14	2.52	8.14	1.18	1.09
Alex Cobb	Tampa	2.13	6.80	3.19	8.48	1.30	0.78
Marco Estrada	Milwaukee	3.55	8.85	2.49	8.51	1.22	1.22

Dislike: There’s a lot of pitchers I don’t like on this team, but the worst of the bunch is Edinson Volquez.  Volquez had a bad spring and he still continues to give up too many walks (a problem he still has since his days with the Reds.  I wrote about this issue when reviewing the Padres’ pitching staff).  Another Opening Day starter I don’t like is Bud Norris who not only is supposed to be on a bad team that may not provide the run support he needs, he also has issues with walks and is projected to have a terrible WHIP.  To Norris’ credit, he did get the win for the Astros on Sunday night.    Jorge de la Rosa is a 32 year-old recovering from Tommy John surgery.  He shouldn’t be on anybody’s team.  Kyle Kendrick is another pitcher who should have been left on waivers as well. 

Bullpen: Amazingly enough, this team has no closers on the squad.

Look Out For: James McDonald seems to slowly, but surely be climbing up the pitchers’ list and distance himself from the Volquezes and Norrises of the world.  He can provide good strikeout numbers and if he cuts back on the walks, he might provide much needed production on this team.  Shaun Marcum is injured once again, but when he’s healthy, he can be productive.  Might be the pitcher to add some quality depth on this team.  Speaking of injury, Chad Billingsley is on the club as well and beginning the year on the DL.  He’s done a good job cutting back on the walks and is actually better off as a back of the rotation guy than as an integral part of any pitching staff (like he was projected to be when he was coming up with the Dodgers).

PREDICTION: Despite having all of these pitchers on the team, they really don’t have much depth.  Remember, quantity does not necessarily mean quality.  They have the potential to surprise people by potentially having a great 5-man combo in their pitching staff, but which of these other quizzical pitchers will step up and have a breakthrough season?  They are also a big bat away from having a complete lineup.  If they can’t make a trade to improve their offense, then they’ll have to depend on a few hitters who have very limited skills at the plate.  Injured 3B Headley might be that player, but he too comes with plenty of issues as well.  Too many ifs and question marks on this team to project them as a playoff team, therefore another title seems to be out of reach.  

Check out the rest of the Mardi Gras Madness teams.

More fantasy baseball is available here. 

MAKING THE PITCH: Tampa Rays

Longoria gets that loooong-term deal w/#Rays, & David Price looks on with envy. "Absolutely," Price says cbsprt.co/Wi12q9
— Scott Miller (@ScottMCBS) March 11, 2013

Felipe M

We take a look at the projected starting rotations and closer situations of every MLB team.  Of course, this will come from a fantasy perspective.  All cited stats are based on 2013 projections.   

To see our preview of the Texas Rangers, click here. 

Now let's take a quick look at the Tampa Rays: 

2013 PITCHING PROJECTIONS
Player	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/A
David Price	3.38	8.88	2.63	7.58	1.13	0.71
Jeff Niemann	2.38	7.01	2.95	8.19	1.24	0.89
Matt Moore	2.67	9.31	3.49	7.79	1.25	0.94
Jeremy Hellickson	2.22	6.97	3.14	8.17	1.26	1.02
Alex Cobb	2.13	6.80	3.19	8.48	1.30	0.78
Fernando Rodney	2.35	8.58	3.66	6.75	1.16	0.56

As you can see, the projections are ranked from lowest to highest WHIP.  Fernando Rodney is the projected closer. The main concern for Rodney is that his 2012 numbers were so unexpected when you consider the last few seasons prior to 2012, that it's hard to imagine him repeating those numbers in 2013.  Currently, I have him ranked ahead of Glen Perkins as a 2nd tier closer.  His K/9 is too low to consider him a top-notch closer and his BB/9 is identical to Kyuji Fujikawa's.  WHIP is also similar to the weird and wild Chris Perez.   However, Rodney is coming off a successful WBC appearance and says he's more than ready to go for the start of 2013.

If Chris Perez is an important part of your bullpen, your bullpen better not be important.
— jeffpearlman (@jeffpearlman) March 18, 2013

Currently, opening day starter, David Price is listed in my top 10 starting pitchers' list (for now).  His numbers are absolutely dominant.  There's a reason why he's the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner.  

Jeremy Hellickson is listed as the #2 starter as the Rays go lefty-righty for the first 4 spots of their rotation.  So far, he's had mixed results this spring.  His numbers don't look very impressive, but even though he's 26, he still has some untapped upside.  Then again, if Hellickson's name wasn't attached to his potential, he would basically be Jason Hammel. Owners will reach for the once, highly-touted prospect, but beware of the hype.

So far, Matt Moore has struggled with control this spring.  But the potential to dominate hitters, based on his K/9 and the fact that he will only be 24 this season, makes him worthy of the risk despite control issues that have haunted him since 2012.  Currently, Moore is right on the border between 2nd and 3rd tier pitcher, just ahead of fellow lefty, Gio Gonzalez.

Meanwhile, Alex Cobb has turned a successful finish to his 2012 campaign into a good spring so far.  1.30 WHIP makes him a risk to draft too early, but Cobb is a candidate to actually exceed his projections.  He is currently ranked between Matt Harvey and Brett Myers.

Jeff Niemann is still in a battle with the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona.  Both are having solid springs.  We all know what "Carmona" is capable of: low strikeout totals, lots of groundballs.  Some issues with control and command.  On the other hand, Niemann is all over the place.  He has history of low strikeout totals, mediocre K/BB, and giving up the long ball.  However, even though he's proven to have a hard time staying healthy, he's actually been improving in the last two seasons (sans the homerun rate in 2012).  Though he only made 8 starts, 2012 was actually a "success" as he improved his K/9 (8.1) and K/BB (2.83).  He also posted his lowest WHIP in his Major League career (1.10).  I've always had faith in Niemann and hopefully, if he wins that 5th spot, he can finally pitch like he's supposed to.  

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