LINE DRIVES: v1.0

Suddenly, San Diego has a launching pad for hitters.
(photo courtesy of Felipe M)

Felipe M

I'll be sharing my random thoughts on the MLB games from April 9, 2013.

SO MUCH FOR A PITCHERS' PARK

The Houston Astros beat the Seattle Mariners 16-9 at Safeco Field.  The San Diego Padres won at Petco Park, scoring 9 runs.  We have been waiting in anticipation to see how the changes in dimensions at these two parks would alter offensive production.  Right away, we're seeing changes.

Taking a look back at 2012, only three times did we see teams put up nine or more runs, in one game, last year at Safeco (roughly once every 27 games).  The most runs that one team had accumulated in one game was on October 3, 2012 when the Mariners blanked the Angels, 12-0 (against Jered Weaver, no less).  The most combined runs at Safeco last season occurred on April 17, 2012 when the Mariners and Indians scored 17 total runs.  27 runs were scored between the Astros and Mariners last night.  

Petco was better last year: seven was the number of times teams had scored 9 or more runs in one game last year.  The highs came on September 16, 2012 when the Padres scored a season high at home of 12 runs and they and the Rockies accumulated 23 runs total in that game.  However, only their first game in 2013 and the Padres have all ready scored 9 runs in one game.  

One game does not make a full MLB season, but it's safe to say that after Tuesday's match-ups, both ballparks, in terms of offense, are off to a good start.  

ASTRO WOES

Speaking of the Astros, the 16 runs were the most they have scored since they scored 18 runs in August of 2010.  The Astros defeated the Cardinals, 18-4 in St. Louis.  In that game, none of the Astros hit a homerun in, but they did hit 4 doubles and 1 triple.  SS Angel Sanchez tallied 6 RBI.  This year, the Astros are 0-6 when scoring fewer than 3 runs.  They have all ready failed to score more than 3 runs in 75% of their games.  Bad sign.

METS AT PHILLIES

The Phillies' struggles in the starting rotation have been well-documented as Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay have not pitched up to par early this season.  Thankfully, they have Cliff Lee who pitched a great game against the Mets last night.  It also helped that the Phillies' bats came alive after being shutdown by pitching phenom, Matt Harvey on Monday.  

Unfortunately, it all came at the expense of Mets' pitcher Dillon Gee who had command issues all night.  So far this year, Gee has pitched 9 and a 1/3 innings and has the following stats after 2 starts: 5.8 K/9; 2.9 BB/9 AND HR/9; 12.6 H/9; 1.71 WHIP.  All of this while inducing  more groundouts than flyouts.  We've mentioned how well Gee pitched last season before being shut down for the year because of injury.  But that's the thing about pitchers like Gee.  He has potential to rack up the strikeouts, but deep down, he is a pitch-to-contact pitcher.  When pitchers like Gee don't have their best stuff and can't fight through it, they'll have nights like these.  Should be very interesting how he bounces back in his next start.  

NOW WE CAN START THE SEASON

Washington Nationals' 1B Adam LaRoche had zero hits.  Now he has two hits after his team beat the White Sox last night.  Both of his hits are homeruns.  Talk about an "all-or-nothing" approach.  LaRoche has always had a reputation for being a slow starter for his teams so it's not surprising that's he's off to the slowest of starts this year as well.  But he is struggling so bad that in the game where he hit 2 homers, he also struck out twice.  A deeper look shows that LaRoche, this season has been swinging for more strikes than in years past.  Of the 57% of pitches that are called for strikes, 24% have been of the swing-and-miss variety--his career average is 17%.  Only 12% of those pitches are actually called strikes because of foul balls--he averages 27%.  

So his timing, clearly, is not there yet, but getting back to his all-or-nothing approach, he's hit a lot more flyballs than groundballs so far this season so when he does make contact, he's looking to drive the ball into the air, but only 17% of his contact have been line drives (career line-drive% of 20%).  Because of this approach, he's suffering the worst Balls-in-Play% of his career (only 56% compared to a career 64%) and of those flyballs, 20% are not leaving the infield.  That's a lot of pop outs.  Will have to keep tabs on this guy and reconvene next week for an update.  

PICK YOUR POISON

If you can only have one closer on your team, who would it be: Carlos Marmol  or John Axford?

Outside of strikeouts, Marmol has struggled mightily with control and looks like he's pitching batting practice when he comes out of the bullpen.  Hitters have posted an OPS of 1.490.  Yikes!  It also doesn't help that Marmol is a flyball pitcher who can't produce outs via the flyout (most of his outs this season have come by way of groundouts).  His line-drive% against is 29% and it doesn't help that 27% of the strikes that he throws are put into play (above career average).  Obviously, hitters aren't being fooled or deceived by his pitches as Marmol only has a 13% in swinging-strike%.  And he gets ahead of the hitters more times than not.  55% of the time he throws a first-pitch strike.  32% of hitters see themselves down 0-2 in the count (much higher than his 2012 rate).  But as mentioned before, it's like he's pitching batting practice out there as these hitters, so far, are hungry when they see him out there--Marmol's contact percentage is a high, 80%!

And then there's Axford: he has a line-drive% against of 53%, OPS against of 1.828, a whopping 41% of his strikes are put in play (about twice his career average).  His contact% is much lower than Marmol's however and has a higher swinging-strikes% than Marmol (22%).    Only 19% of hitters see themselves at an 0-2 count.  However, he puts himself at a disadvantage by giving hitters a 3-0 count, 14% of the time (well above his norm).  

So of the two, who has a better chance to rebound?  The numbers are absolutely horrendous and I was trying to look for positives and couldn't find much.  If I have to pick one that is most likely to improve as the season progresses, it's probably Marmol.  At least he's getting ahead of the count more often than Axford.  Maybe it's a sign.  Or maybe it's not.  

And on that sour note...

#BrewersCubs thinking trade now: #marmolfor #axford straight up? #Tradetalk
— Felipe M (@pathological_h8) April 8, 2013

More MLB content is available here.  

MAKING THE PITCH: Philadelphia Phillies

Felipe M

Even though the season has started, it's still early enough to take a quick look at the rest of the pitching staffs.

We left off reviewing the Pittsburgh Pirates.  

The Philadelphia Phillies are equipped with arguably the best 1-2-3 combo in all of baseball.  

2013 Pitching Projections
Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/9
Cliff Lee	Philadelphia	6.94	8.76	1.26	8.23	1.05	0.90
Roy Halladay	Philadelphia	5.18	7.84	1.51	8.47	1.11	0.89
Cole Hamels	Philadelphia	4.06	8.83	2.18	7.85	1.11	0.98
Kyle Kendrick	Philadelphia	2.16	5.75	2.66	9.48	1.35	0.96
Jonathan Papelbon	Philadelphia	4.25	11.25	2.65	7.41	1.12	0.93

Kyle Kendrick seemed to have received a lot of attention this offseason as he saw his strikeout totals go up in 2012.  He even left spring training with a K/BB of 12/3, but still got lit up for a high ERA of 6.88.  However, Kendrick's game is all about control and pitching-to-contact as his projected WHIP of 1.35 is more of a reality than the 1.28 he posted last season.  I would keep an eye on him just to see if his improvement from last season is legit or a fluke. There's a reason why he's still available in 80% of CBS leagues.  

Jonathan Papelbon is clearly one of the best closers in baseball.  The only knock on him is that saves might be hard to come by as the team is loaded with starters that can eat up the innings, costing Papelbon a few save chances, but that's just me nit-picking, obviously. 

John Lannan is listed as the 5th starter.  I don't like him, never did like, and never will like him.  However, my curiosity as to why this guy continues to be given chances to pitch in the Big Leagues has been piqued.  So upon further review, after making all the calculations and reading all the reports, here's what I found out: Lannan did have a solid spring, but gave up 12 runs in 4 innings in his last exhibition start; He had a mediocre year with the Nationals in 2012, but did finish with a 4-1 record and based on what we know about GM, Ruben Amaro, that's good enough for him because that's how he defines "production."; Plus he did have a FIP of 3.17 which isn't so bad, but he has a career K/BB of 1.39.  Please don't make the mistake of giving this guy a chance on your team.  

 I don't think I have to explain myself on Cliff Lee.  His 2012 season was such a major fluke, but was still able to post good strikeout totals and even improved his BB/9.  

The same thing goes for Cole Hamels.  Albeit, he did struggle against the Braves on opening night, but he is coming off a successful 2012 campaign and spring training.  He'll be fine.

I didn't think I had to explain myself on Roy Halladay, but there were whispers of doubt in the offseason, but I didn't think they deserved my attention.  And then, today, sports pundits from everywhere are acting like a bunch of Chicken Littles after one start from Halladay.  What's wrong?  He's coming off a sub-par, by his standards, 2012 season.  Injuries limited him to only 25 starts last year.  Nevertheless, he still had good strikeout totals and did a great job in limiting his walks.  He did give up a lot of hits which raised his WHIP to 1.22, but the last time he had a WHIP that high, 2007, he won 16 games for the Blue Jays and still did a great job in limiting his walks.  He did, however, have low strikeouts and a high hit rate.  He also had a H/9 of 8.94 in 2012, the first time he's given up that many base-hits since 2009.  So perhaps 2012 was just an isolated incident and injuries might have played a bigger role than anticipated, right? 

Well, what the numbers don't tell us is that in 2012, there were reports of decrease in velocity in his fastball.  Like I explained though, there were small murmurs throughout the spring that got louder and louder until his opening day start to the season yesterday where he got lit up by the Braves.  Here's a quick timeline:

• February 13, 2013: Halladay declares that he's healthy entering spring training.  He credits a new, offseason workout regiment that focuses "on movements to build strength and flexibility in his lower back and core."
• Feb 19: Halladay throws live Batting Practice and according to witnesses, he looked impressive.  Even new teammate, Michael Young stated that he looked like the pitcher he used to face when Halladay was still a Blue Jay.
• Feb 24: Halladay throws 22 pitches, gives up one homerun, but doesn't allow a baserunner against the Tigers.  One scout did report clocking his velocity between 89-91 mph
• March 1: Strong performance against the Yankees. 
• March 6: Dominated the Nationals. 
• March 12: Rocked against the Detroit Tigers
• March 13: Pitching coach, Rich Dubee reminds fans and media that "Halladay is healthy this season."
• March 17: Leaves game after one inning because of stomach virus.
• March 18: During a bullpen session, Halladay is only able to top his fastball at 87 mph
• March 19: Still recovering from a stomach virus. Lost 10 pounds because of illness
• March 23: Has a terrible game against Triple-A hitters.  Can only top 90 mph once!
• March 28: Another poor outing and once again, his fastball reaches 88-91.
• April 3: Throws 95 pitches, 40 in the 1st inning, ends up only completing 3 1/3 innings. He strikes out 9, walks 3, and gives up 2 homeruns.  
• Becomes first pitcher to get 9 K's, but only record 10 or less outs in MLB history.
• Halladay states that he will fix problems.

During all this time, Halladay and coach Dubee were constantly working together throughout the spring to try and figure out how to improve his mechanics and such.  The Phillies also said that they weren't concerned with Halladay.  Halladay himself stated that he would be ready for his first start of the year.

Personally, I would give the benefit of the doubt to Halladay.  The team was high on him to begin the year and although he has been getting rocked, overcoming stomach issues is a difficult endeavor.  And even though his fastball is down, it's like opposing hitter Jason Heyward says, "he has a lot of weapons" in his pitching repertoire.  He was able to strikeout 9 hitters so that has to be a good sign.  I'm optimistic that he will be able to get around a dwindling fastball and focus more on location instead of trying to blow by everybody with his fastball.  And as mentioned before, Halladay wasn't always known as a strikeout artist as evident by his 2004-2007 seasons in Toronto.  Might take some time to make the adjustment, but if anybody can adjust, it's Halladay.  He's done it before.

The pessimist would point out the terrible command and the ineffectiveness of his fastball and secondary pitches, as well as his struggles in the 2nd half of the spring.  The low velocity might mark the beginning of the end of the 35 year-old Halladay.  

Nevertheless, it's sort of odd to see a pitcher like Halladay just suddenly see his production and ability go up in smoke so quickly.  I would practice patience with a guy like him, no doubt.  Would I activate him for his next start?  No, I would let him sit on the bench and let him figure it out there.  But one start doesn't predict an entire season.  Perhaps, after a few more starts (4 or 5 seems about right) would be a reasonable timetable to reevaluate him.

More MLB content is available here.  

MARDI GRAS MADNESS: Halladay Holiday

Felipe M

I continue to preview my fantasy league's teams.  Click here for my team.  For our Commissioner from Texas, click here.  For our Commish from Louisiana, click here. 

CENTRAL DIVISION—HALLADAY HOLIDAY (from Ontario, Canada)

BATTING LINEUP

Like: As I’ve explained before, I really like JoeMauer.  I’m also expecting a bounce-back year from Adrian Gonzalez.  JoshHamilton might be at ease this season as he leaves the pressure-cooker knows as the Texas Rangers, to the laid-back, stress-free Angels as he doesn’t have to be the main guy in the lineup any longer.

Player	Team	Pos	BB/K	AB/K	AB/HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB
Josh Hamilton	Anaheim	LF/CF	0.39	4.06	16.72	0.350	0.533	0.882	7

Dislike: Is there more annoying player than Brett Lawrie in terms of real life and fantasy production?  And even though he will be playing DH, Justin Morneau smells more like a “homer” pick than a suitable hitter in fantasy baseball at this moment of his career.  Another “homer” pick, Emilio Bonifacio, might rack up the steals, but his low on-base% and poor approach at the plate is just a poor combination in a points’ league.  As much as I want to like Justin Upton, I’m not convinced that he will put his fantasy club over-the-top. 

Look Out For: JasonKipnis is a spark-plug at 2B.  He can steal 20+ bases and hit for 15+. 

BENCH: The team, inexplicably, has two 2B on the club: Daniel Murphy and Neil Walker.  Eventually, Curtis Granderson will take over CF, but will it be too late?

PITCHING

Like: The team’s namesake, Roy Halladay is one of the most durable and effective starters in today’s game.  The rest of the staff looks like my team from the past: Jake Peavy, Brandon Morrow, Josh Johnson.  They also have Cy Young Award winner, David Price.

Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/A
Roy Halladay	Philadelphia	5.18	7.84	1.51	8.47	1.11	0.89
David Price	Tampa	3.38	8.88	2.63	7.58	1.13	0.71
Brandon Morrow	Toronto	2.83	8.90	3.15	8.08	1.25	1.02
Josh Johnson	Toronto	2.75	8.03	2.92	7.79	1.19	0.60

Dislike: The rest of the pitching staff is stacked with relievers.  See below.

Look Out For: I was ready to pick up Gerrit Cole and insert him into my Minor League slot, but noticed that he was all ready on this team.  Armed with a fastball that can run up to 100mph, as soon as he gets called up, he will provide even more depth to this club.

BULLPEN: He took my advice on handcuffing Casey Janssen with Sergio Santos.  He also picked up Sergio Romo who has a history of injuries, but proved himself as a legit closer in 2012.  Unfortunately, he also picked up set up RP, Kenley Jansen and struggling rookie, Bruce Rondon; he has yet to be officially named the closer in Detroit. 

PREDICTION: Out of all the owners in our draft on Sunday, Halladay Holiday struggled the most as they were victims of the shoddy, draft module on Sunday night.  Still, he did a good job in setting up a decent batting lineup to support what can potentially be a formidable pitching staff.  Unfortunately, this team looks more like a roto-league or a head-to-head roto-style league.  We don’t give points for holds.  And saves are unpredictable to depend on.  It might end up costing him a playoff spot in 2013. 

More fantasy baseball content is available here.