COURTSIDE VIEW: Pacemaker

Johnny J

Welcome to the first Courtside View entry.  I'm your host, Johnny J!  This week's topic is all about the Indiana Pacers.  

Indiana was real good at slowing down the high-powered New York Knicks' offense (RIP--Ed). The Knicks were actually ranked 11th in scoring for the regular season, averaging 100 PPG.  The Miami Heat, the Pacers' opponent in the Eastern Conference Finals, ranked 5th with 102.9 PPG.  The Pacers will try and make the Heat play at their pace, meaning plenty of half-court ball.  Indiana knows they can't out-score the Heat and I wonder, how much do they have left in the tank after going six games with the Knicks? Indiana only averaged 94.7 PPG in the regular season (92 PPG in the playoffs--Ed) and ranked a sub-par 23rd in the league.

With Miami only averaging 12 fastbreak points per game, I can really see the pacemaker Pacers controlling the game.  They have a "team" that can have a different leading scorer every game. Yes, they have a young star in Paul George (Johnny J wrote about Paul George last month: he's really "lights out"--Ed), but he still has a lot to learn, before I put him in the top-tier list of players in the NBA.

George is a player who can potentially average a triple-double with his style of play.  He doesn't need the ball in his hands every time to make an impact in the game.  But the ball does go through his hands almost every play. Whether it's on a rebound, pass, or shot. In the playoffs he has averaged 19.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. The most improved player at 22 has shown up!

The Knicks averaged 31.5 points from three pointers. They were second in the league, with the Heat, coming in third averaging 25.7. The Pacers averaged first in opponents three pointers percentage and field goal percentage.  The Heat likes to spread the floor, just like the Knicks did, but the Knicks couldn't hit their shots, averaging only 37% from behind the arc against Indiana. How will Miami learn from the Knicks mistakes?  Indiana, doesn't like to double team opponents. With defensive-minded players like Paul George, George Hill and Roy Hibbert, they don't have to. George was on the all-defensive second team and Hibbert could've been on the list as well. The tall, imposing freak had 19 blocks in six games (3.2 per game) against the Knicks.

The Pacers won the series 2-1 in the regular season against the Heat.  Both wins coming at home at Conseco Fieldhouse. The Pacers were 30-11 at home in the regular season and 6-0 at home in the postseason.  As good as the Pacers are at home, it is imperative that the prove that they can win on the road in this series.  That is just a fact of life: Champions win on the road!  They finished up the Atlanta Hawks on the road and they also stole game one in New York. I believe they can do it. They have the attitude of a championship team, and they stayed composed throughout the playoffs.  They're not that deep off the bench, but neither is Miami.  I also acknowledge they are young and everybody on the court, regardless of position or size, attacks the glass. They were first in rebounds averaging 45 per game. They're like beasts on the glass (We explained how the Miami Heat have struggled against good rebounding clubs this season--Ed).

I see this series going seven games without a doubt in my mind.  The Pacers can match the intensity of the Heat, but it's going to be about "who is going to want it more?"  The pressure is more on the Heat.  Not only do they have three All-Stars, but one in particular, LeBron James, is being compared to as the greatest of all time (Numbers don't lie--Ed).

This maybe the last time the big three are together.  The pacers will crash the boards and they will not send double teams as every man can hold his own defensive assignment. It will limit the threes from the role players and it will be a physical battle.  I believe home-court will be a major factor, but I believe the Pacers will steal one in south beach.

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LIGHTS, CAMERA, ACTION: Why the Grizzlies Don't Need a Superstar

Johnny J

When Russell Westbrook, went out with a knee injury in the first round, I changed my perspective on who was coming out the west. OKC is number one in the Western Conference for a reason. Besides having one of the best scorers in the league in Kevn Durant, the absence of Westbrook, who averaged 23 points and 7 assists in the regular season, makes this an ordinary team, with one star. Ask the casual movie-goer: more stars means the movie is worth watching . One star, means the movie is not worth anything. So Durant without Westbrook, is like Abbot without Costello. So with that said, I changed my West pick from the Thunder to the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Grizzlies are finding ways to win after trading their star perimeter player Rudy Gay in the middle of the season. But it's not about what they gave away but what they got in return. After the six-player exchange was all said and done, they acquired a young developing player in Ed Davis, (Go North Carolina) and veteran Tayshaun Prince, and throw-in Austin Daye. The Grizzlies, who lead the league in points allowed, just got bigger and more Grizzly. Both Davis and Prince are long defenders with a good wingspan. Prince's wingspan would make him about 7-foot-2, which is about 5 inches more than his height. He plays good defense, has good ball-handling skills, and can shoot from anywhere on the floor. I'll take that back in return for my star player who is now watching his former team from his couch.

Now you throw Prince in the mix with Defensive Player of the Year, Marc Gasol and a talented power forward in Z-Bo, (Zach Randolph) and I say you have a talented, man-consuming bear attack!  I call it, "when bears attack for no reason"--NBA Edition.  No need to feed them, they roam in the wilderness. The same place Durant and company are going to play the next two game, Memphis, at the FedEx Forum, where the Grizzlies were 32-9 at home in the regular season, and are 3-0 in the in the playoffs. Sounds like its going to be another bear attack in the South. Just ask L.A. Clippers' Blake Griffin, who went into the woods and just wasn't the same after his bear attack. Yes Griffin is a hard, tough player, but he let Randolph push him around in the playoffs. Griffin is a big guy, but he is harmless, and physical teams will push him around.

The Grizzlies should be up 2-0 in this series against the Thunder, but cub Quincy Pondexter, couldn't hit the free throws. Too much pressure for the cub, who only has two years experience. But like every road team in the playoffs would say, "At least we took away home court advantage from them, by taking one." Now, the Grizzlies, don't have that sense of urgency to win, because they already did the hard part: Win in OKC!
The Grizzlies don't have a traditional "go-to-guy," but they don't need one.  It's like Erik Spoelstra says:

"Who's going to take the last shot? Whoever's open."

When you have a lot of weapons on a team, you're able to do that. Who takes the last shot for the Grizzlies? Whoever is open!  Give it to Gasol, Randolph, Prince or even Mike Conley Jr., who was just one assist shy of a triple double in game 2. Who, would you put your best defender on against Memphis?  Good question.

Whoever made the call to get rid of Gay (Part of the answer can be found here--Ed) made the best move for this franchise.  Defense wins games and that guy didn't have any.  Now every guy is the -go-to-person. With that mentality, who needs a star?  You have a whole team full of co-stars. All their names show-up in the credits anyway.  How do you build a team around the co-stars?  Just add more! I'll take that over one star who breathes the same air as we do. If he misses, its his fault. If the co-stars misses, its the team's fault. 

Memphis should get past OKC and either San Antonio or Golden State will be in trouble. The Spurs are too old and the Warriors are too inexperienced.  Memphis will advance to the Conference Finals and the Spurs/Warriors should be prepared to be mauled by the Grizzlies. No Smokey or Yogi here;  just straight Grizzlies.

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NBA Playoff coverage can be found here.

NBA LESSONS: v5.1

Once again, the #Bulls out rebound the #Heat. One would think Miami fixed that issue for the #NBAplayoffs #NBAlessons #firstplaceissues
— Felipe M (@pathological_h8) May 7, 2013

Felipe M

Game 1 of the NBA Playoff match-up between the Chicago Bulls and the Miami Heat took a surprising turn as the short-handed Bulls upset the Heat in Miami on Monday night.  But if one were to take a closer look at the team statistics after the game, fans shouldn't have been that surprised as the Bulls have found ways to compete with, and even beat, the Miami Heat (minus one blowout) during the regular season with a similar formula for success.

As a Bulls' fan, I know better than to rely too heavily on regular season success.  However, we've seen the Heat struggle against the better, rebounding clubs in the NBA.  I even went as far as saying that "poor rebounding teams get exposed in the playoffs."  Sure enough, that's what happened in Game 1.  However, before we look too deep into Game 1, let's take a look at how both teams have fared against each other in the Regular Season to see if there's a pattern that we should be noticing.

Here is the first match-up of the regular season:

January 4, 2013 at Miami
Team	Score	3PT%	FT M-A	FT%	Total Rebs		Off Rebs	Pts in Paint
Chicago	96	35.7%	19-24	79.2%	48	19		46
Miami	89	25%	24-31	77.4%	28	4		34

As the score will indicate, this was a very close game.  The rest of the stats will prove that as FG%, Assists, Turnovers, etc. are pretty even.  However, as the table will show, despite the Heat attempting 31 free throw attempts, seven more than the Bulls (this stat is always a concern because of their three superstars: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh and a tendency for officials to give them more foul calls), the Bulls, as I explained back in January, simply out-worked the Heat in rebounds and points in the paint.  The Bulls also shot a lot better from 3-point range, which would solidify their victory in Miami.  Nevertheless, the hard work done in the paint and in the glass against a seemingly, more finesse Heat team is the blueprint to victory.

Unfortunately for the Bulls in the second match-up, the Heat were looking for revenge and made Chicago look like "Lambs at the Slaughter":

February 21, 2013 at Chicago
Team	Score	FG%	FT%	Persnl Fouls	Stls + Blocks	TOs	Pts in Paint
Miami	86	50.7%	64.3%	15	20	17	38
Chicago	67	37.3%	81.8%	15	14	26	38

The Heat were hitting on all cylinders in the 2nd game, but despite the impressive field goal percentage, the Heat only scored 86 points.  However, their defense actually showed up in this game, as the allowed only 26 points combined in the 2nd and 4th quarter of this game.  The Heat controlled the tempo on offense.  One thing worth nothing is the high FT% that the Bulls shot.  This would be a recurring theme as the Bulls, despite getting lesser attempts at the line, would go on to dominate in terms of percentage.  

I spoke of the Heat controlling the game's tempo, but as one will notice, personal fouls called were distributed evenly.  Favoritism, in this regard, has not been shown to the Heat, but it's worth noting that of the four regular season games, the 30 combined fouls were the lowest called in their games.  The other three games always had a minimum of 35 fouls called combined by both teams.  Perhaps the lowered fouls called proved to benefit the Heat's preference to run up-and-down the court (again, "tempo").  

As mentioned, the Heat's defense came to play in this game as they were the more aggressive team on the defensive side, accumulating more blocks and steals and creating more turnovers.  The Heat would continue to dominate the "Steals+Blocks" category for the rest of this series.  However, despite the defensive prowess, the Bulls scored 57% of their points from the paint area.  Another recurring theme as this should be a red flag for a Miami Heat team that's had a reputation for being a perceived finesse team with no formidable defensive big man in the middle (Bosh, it seems, is not the answer).  So despite actually tying the Bulls in this category, the Heat settled for more jump shots (again, finesse) that were going in at a higher rate.  Nevertheless, all the jump-shooting meant less free throw attempts (only 14 in this game).  Despite the blowout, this game was more indicative of the Bulls' struggles on offense at this juncture of the season.  The way the Heat were playing, the results should have been a lot worse for the Bulls, but they only lost by 19 points.

#heatstreak? More like #heatstroke whoo! Great job #Bulls
— Felipe M (@pathological_h8) March 28, 2013

One of the most exhilarating games of the 2012-13 NBA season, the Bulls found a way to end the Heat's 27-game winning streak.  Not only did the Bulls win, but they won without the heart, soul, leader, and big presence in the middle, Joakim Noah:

March 27, 2013 at Chicago
Team	Score	FT M-A	FT%	Tot Rebs	Off Rebs	Asts	Pts in Paint
Miami	97	16-23	69.6%	31	6	15	54
Chicago	101	13-18	72.2%	43	12	27	40

The Heat were awarded more FT attempts, but not by a large margin.  And once again, they shot worse than the Bulls from the charity stripe.  If the Heat would have shot better from the line, perhaps the result would have been different.  Not listed on the table is that the Heat, again, dominated steals + blocks, but only had a +5 on the turnover margin.  They did a good job of controlling the ball and not making mistakes on the offensive end.  Unfortunately for them, it only produced 15 assists.  

However, the Bulls' win can be attributed to going after the Heat's weakness: dominating the glass.  Even though they took care of the ball, the Heat found it hard to get the ball back.  Twelve offensive rebounds for the Bulls means more time to kill off the clock by regaining ball possession and less of a chance for the Heat to score.  Fouls were called pretty evenly and a total of 35 were called in this game.  Again, the Bulls might benefit from more fouls being called as it slows down the Heat's uptempo style.  

Finally, the Heat did a good job scoring 54 points in the paint--with no Joakim Noah there to clog the middle, defensively.  Before this game, the Heat only averaged 36 points in the paint against the Bulls.  The fact that the Bulls were able to score 40 in the paint (42 points in the paint/game in the first two games against the Heat) without the services of Noah speaks volumes.

So inadequate free throw shooting along with terrible rebounding ended the Heat's historic winning streak.  For the finale, the Heat would avenge this loss, but not in a very impressive way:

April 14, 2013 at Miami
Team	Score	FG%	3-PT%	FT%	Tot Rebs	Off Rebs	Pts in Paint
Chicago	93	35.4%	42.3%	77.4%	45	11	24
Miami	105	51.4%	35.3%	65.9%	44	4	44

It is worth prefacing that both Noah and Taj Gibson were out for this game and the Bulls still managed to keep this game close.  The Heat won on the strength of their shooting, but the Bulls were able to keep it close with their free throw and 3-point shooting.  Despite having 10 more free throw attempts than the Bulls (41-31), Chicago still shot a better percentage from the line.  

Rebounds were pretty even without Gibson and Noah, but the Bulls still managed to grab 11 offensive rebounds.  And the Heat's "Big 3" played for more than 31 minutes/player so that's pretty inexcusable.  At least they dominated the paint by outscoring Chicago by 20, but that's like me getting 20 more points against a five-year old guarding me in the paint.  

Which brings us to Game 1:

May 6, 2013 at Miami
Team	Score	FG%	3-PT%	FT%	Tot Rebs	TOs	Pts in Paint
Chicago	93	43.7%	38.9%	82.8%	46	15	40
Miami	86	39.7%	29.2%	68%	32	8	32

What do you see?  The same formula that the Bulls have been using to be successful against the NBA Champions.  This time, however, the Bulls were shooting the ball better than the Heat.  Usually, the Heat have the advantage in the shooting department, or at worst for them it's pretty even, but the Bulls have not shot the ball better than the Heat.  Add to that the Heat's woeful 3-pt and FT%; if Miami just makes one more 3-pointer or hits a few more free throw shots, we might be talking about a different result.  

One will also notice that the Heat took extremely good care of the ball in this game.  Also, the offensive rebounds were pretty equal.  Nevertheless, the same recipe that help defeat the Heat in two out of the four regular season games is in full effect in this playoff game--Bulls outrebounded Miami by 14.  You add the fact that the Bulls, once again, dominated points in the paint and that pretty much sums up the Bulls' formula in defeating the Heat in this series: control the glass, control the paint.  Chicago will not outplay the Heat in the perimeter and will not win a shootout (at least not often) against them either.  The Bulls have to do the two things they have done well against the Heat this year--glass and paint.  

Again, many people were dismissing the Heat's rebounding struggles in the regular season by justifying that they would be ready for the playoffs.  Although the Heat have held their own in the rebounding department this postseason, they finished dead last in rebounds per game and were among the worst teams in the rebound differential category as well.  As mentioned before in early January, "poor rebounding teams get exposed in the playoffs."  If the Heat don't correct that part of their game soon, their chances to repeat as champions will disappear.  Because if they're struggling against the Bulls now, what happens in the event that they have to face the Indiana Pacers in the next round?  Why the Pacers?  Because they finished as the best rebounding team in the NBA.  

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PLAYING FOR KEEPS!

Johnny J

Must have been stepped on by a Celtics' fan.
(photo courtesy of Johnny J)

The time is 12:23 AM, New York time. The Knicks are probably just landing in Boston.  It only takes about an hour from New York to Boston.  The Knicks should be well-rested since they didn't play last night. Oh wait--they did!  They lost 92-86 in a sluggish performance, despite the fact that they were so confident about closing out the series.  Instead, they are now losers of  two in a row.  The reality is the Knicks can mess around and lose this series. No team in the NBA has come back from a 3-0 deficit  The Celtics are in a win or go home stage so they have nothing to lose. But for New York, this is too close for comfort as the Empire State already knows how it feels for Boston to win four in a row (see the Red Sox beating the Yankees, four games to three, in the 2004 American League Championship)

I was looking forward to seeing the Knicks win their first playoff series since 2000. Then it hit me: the Knicks are not taking this game seriously. Knicks center/power forward, Kenyon Martin, told the team to wear all black to the game--"funeral colors"-- signifying that they were ending the Celtics in game 5. As a Knicks' fan and a fan of sports, that is something you do not do.  Don't give this team any hope.  Don't give them any type of extra motivation.  That's unacceptable because this is not the regular season--it's the playoffs!  Everything is different! You don't see the Miami Heat going around saying stupid thinks like that. That's a championship team.  A team that stays poised.  A team that doesn't let any distractions get to them. They just go out there and get it done.  The Knicks are just showing when they get in the spotlight, they just can't smile and wave like the penguins from Madagascar. They have to stir up the pot.

The Celtics are playing for keeps.  You win a game and you hold on to it.  It seems like the momentum changed for Boston when J.R. Smith elbowed Jason Terry, which put him on his back.  After that, Terry has been on a tear, finally earning his $30 million dollar contract he signed in the offseason. Terry made 5 three-pointers on Wednesday. While Smith made a whopping one field goal. He missed his first 10 shots. It seemed like that one-game suspension made him rusty, like he lost his rhythm. A very disappointing night, for the acclimated sixth man, who said the series should have been over and that he should be playing golf somewhere. Hey Smith, do you have an 0-10 iron?

“This is a new group,” coach Mike Woodson said. “And what they’re learning is that in playoff basketball, anything is liable to happen. We have to save our energy and stay composed on the floor. If we play the way we’re capable of, we’ll be all right.”

Coach, just said it right there--STAY COMPOSED. Play your game.  Stop the Isolations to Carmelo Anthony as he forces dumb shots. The scoring champ is getting his points, but he's taking 30 shots to get it (summoning his inner, Allen Iverson. Former teammates--Ed). That's what you call ugly shooting. During the regular season, he was in Iso 26 percent of the time.  In the first round of the playoffs, that number jumped to 43 percent. In game 4, when Smith was suspended, it wen't to 49 percent. Message to Carmelo--TRUST your teammates!  You can't win championships by yourself.

The Knicks are the only team in the Eastern Conference that I believe can make life hard for the Heat. If the Knicks lose, it's safe to say Miami is coming out as Conference champs. In order for that not to happen, the Knicks have to stay cool. Play your style of basketball, minus the 50 percent Isos for Anthony. This is pressure time now. Keep the smart comments out of the media, at least until you hoist the trophy.

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