Q&A: A Different Perspective

Does anyone else in fantasy baseball cause more headaches
than this guy?
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos)

Josh C

(Editor's note: Josh was kind enough to answer a few, select fantasy baseball questions from this past week.  You may know Josh as our resident Sacramento Kings' fan and is one of my biggest fantasy sports' rival, most notably defeating my baseball team in our league's 2012 championship game.  He brings a different view on what he thinks makes for a successful fantasy baseball season).

QUESTION #1: "Need OF help and I have to choose between Coco Crisp, Jayson Werth, and Melky Cabrera.  Who would you choose?"

Of course, Crisp and Werth are currently injured at the moment so Melky Cabrera is the default answer.  However, if all three are healthy, I would definitely have Werth as my third choice.  So it boils down between Cabrera and Crisp and what kind of OF your team is looking for.  In terms of pop, Melky has a slight advantage, but Crisp is clearly the better base stealer.  However, if you're looking for batting average, Cabrera is your man as I highly doubt that Crisp can continue to hit over .280.  Plus Cabrera is hitting in a better lineup than Crisp.  Toronto is struggling now, but when they turn things around, I want to have Cabrera in my lineup so he can reap the benefits and starts helping my team.

QUESTION #2: "Is Kyle Kendrick for real?"

Depends on your definition of "real."  Is he as good as the numbers he's putting up?  No, but he's one of those guys that you "power stream" (meaning you play them against everyone except the "power" lineups).  I say he can finish the year with 12-14 wins, 3.34 ERA, WHIP of 1.19, and approximately 140 strikeouts.  Not too shabby.

QUESTION #3: "I'm a B.J. Upton owner.  Now what?"  (I too have B.J. Upton on my current squad--Ed)

Huge fan of Justin Upton, but never been a fan of B.J.  That being said, he can still contribute in all the major categories, except batting average and I still figure that he can hit around .240.  Without doing the math, for him to have a "spike" from his current average of .138 to .240 means he's going to have a hot stretch at some point to get there.  I think the fact that Justin is there with him this season is going to help him out of this slump.  I wouldn't drop just yet and would continue to keep riding him in my bench until I see a glimmer of hope (if you insist that I should continue to practice patience...--Ed).

QUESTION #4: "Would you trade Giancarlo Stanton for Matt Holliday?"

Even if assuming that Stanton is healthy and Holiday can continue to be a durable player at his advanced age, I think I would still have to say 'yes' on this one.  I don't believe Holliday is as good of a player as Stanton, but I was already doubting Stanton entering this season (and even long before I realized just how bad this Miami Marlins' lineup would be).  His statements about how he felt about the organization after their fire sale in the offseason made me wonder how a guy with a fire inside like that is going to do when his team is the worst in the league and he doesn't have anybody in the lineup to protect him.  The current results have answered all of my questions.  Nobody is pitching to him, but then again, he's not walking that much either.  That tells me that he's getting frustrated at not being pitched to and swinging at pitches he wouldn't swing at in the past.  

I think the homeruns will come eventually this year, however (I'd take the over on 27), but not sure any of the other peripherals or counting stats will come around in 2013.  Conversely, it's very hard to count out a guy when he has uber talent.  

QUESTION #5: "Jim Henderson or Jim Johnson?"

I really want to say Henderson here, but I actually prefer him from a skills standpoint (I don't know about you, but I like my closers to be able to fan the side).  However, for some reason, the Milwaukee Brewers love Axford.  I just have this feeling that if Axford continues pitching well like he has been of late (although he took the loss yesterday against the Pirates--Ed), that they are going to give him another shot (or turn it into some sort of "platoon"/"closer by committee"). 

I have to go with Jim Johnson on this one because of the current solidity of his role. 

QUESTION #6: "Lorenzo Cain or Starlin Marte?"

I like both of these guys, but Marte still hacks a little too much for me to completely believe in his average.  He's going to steal more bases, but I think Cain has more ability to be a multi-way guy.  Slight advantage to Cain.

More MLB content is available here.  

Fantasy baseball content is available here.   

MARDI GRAS MADNESS: Balls Out

This team will have to depend on bullpen help,
including the great Mariano Rivera.
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann)

Felipe M

Before I move on to the next team, I probably should explain a little something about this league.  Mardi Gras Madness began back in 2002 as a fantasy baseball keeper league.  Currently, we keep 7 players from the season before and hold an annual, 15-round draft.  Out of the 22 players in our roster, we need to start 9 hitters (C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF, DH) and 7 pitchers (any combination of SP and RP).  It is a  weekly, head-2-head, fantasy points league.  The team with the highest score at the end of a given week, wins that game.

The previous team I reviewed was Halladay Holiday. 

The next team we'll review finish the 2012 season with the best record and most points in the league, but was eliminated by yours truly:

EAST DIVISION—BALLS OUT (out of Southern California)

BATTING LINEUP

Like: Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, David Wright, Robinson Cano, Jose Reyes; This team is stacked!  They also have Brian McCann waiting to come back from injury.  In the meantime, Alex Avila will take over duties at the backstop.  Even Melky Cabrera, who is a bust on many publications’ lists, can still come back from suspension and produce decent numbers this season.

Dislike: Recently acquired Mark Trumbo is a headache waiting to happen as his all-or-nothing approach might work, but in most weeks his strikeouts will lead to a lot of low scores on a weekly basis. 

Look Out For: MiguelSano is supposed to be the next Miguel Cabrera. 

BENCH: Vernon Wells might see his value increase a bit with the Yankees, but something tells me he won’t be on this squad for very long. 

PITCHING

Like: Jered Weaver is a great fit for this team, but he might have to carry the starters on his own. 

Dislike: Because of a high dependence on closers, the only other starters on this team are Mark Buehrle, Julio Teheran, and Tommy Hanson.  Buehrle pitches batting practice at times, Teheran, although had Braves staff marveling at his spring, is still a young, unpredictable pitcher, and Hanson’s walk rate will drive this team nuts.

Look Out For: DylanBundy has been getting hype all offseason long.  Also, look out for Ryan Madson as he should be ready sometime during the season and help this team rack up the saves.

Only a matter of time before Carlos Marmol's days
as a closer are over
(photo courtesy of Sharon P. Mancia)

BULLPEN: Because of Madson’s injury, this team went on and took my advice as they handcuffed him to Ernesto Frieri creating another satisfied customer.  Joe Nathan, despite my concerns, is still a solid closer.  Mariano Rivera is still the best in history.  Rafael Betancourt has proven himself as a dependable closer, but there’s rumors spreading that he will eventually become a contender’s setup man.  Carlos Marmol is terrible.

PREDICTION: Even for a fantasy team, this squad’s batting lineup is like some sort of Dream Team.  However, getting all of those top-tier position players forced this club to depend on closers to make up the majority of their pitching staff.  For every good closer, he went out and acquired shaky 9^th inning men with the only dependable SP, Weaver.  In our league’s history, depending on a pitching staff full of closers is a questionable proposition and might end up costing this squad a shot at repeating as league champions.  

More fantasy baseball is available here. 

CATCH!: 2013 Early Pre-Rankings--RF

Joey Bats!
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos)

Felipe M

CF pre-rankings are available here.

GREEN = on my keeper team. 

TOP TIER

1. Jose Bautista: There is concern that the wrist surgery he sustained last season might have affected his power, but he's still projected to attain these ridiculous numbers.  He's hitting in a better lineup so that should equal more RBI opportunities.  He's supposed to reach an OPS of .948 per ESPN. Plus wrist injury or not, his BB:K should remain one of the best in the games.
2. Justin Upton: He's ranked very high on many "experts'" list at this position, but it's his projected OPS that we calculated (.820) that drops him down to this spot.  He still remains a very attractive option in traditional Roto-leagues where his speed/power combo can potentially net a 25/25 season or even more if he can cut back on his whiffs.
3. Giancarlo Stanton: This guy is all power!  We project him at a .955 OPS and he's supposed to hit a homerun in every 12.45 official at bats.  However, he needs to be more patient at the plate before we move him to the top spot.
4. Jason Heyward: The way I see it, Heyward is Upton's clone.  The difference is that Justin Upton has the potential to exceed his counting stats' projections plus Upton has a slightly better on-base% and a bit more patient than Heyward (doesn't say much, but we're talking about a "game of inches.")  Heyward is a solid 25/20 guy.
5. Ben Zobrist: We've marveled about Zobrist's game throughout the preseason: the versatility  the patience at the plate, the good power/speed combo.  He's a very steady player and a solid pick in any league.

SECOND TIER

6. Jay Bruce: There's only reason why you would pick this guy: POWER!  He'll most likely hurt Roto-leaguers' batting average and in points' leagues, the strikeouts will drive you nuts, but keep in mind that he can reach a respectable on-base% of .343.  35 homers and .858 OPS still makes Bruce a great source of power.
7. Bryce Harper: Harper will show that he can hang permanently in the big leagues as he enters his second season.  He's still learning the big league game, but can still be a 25/25 guy.  
8. Allen Craig: .850 OPS is what makes Craig worth a risk despite a history of injuries.  He stayed healthy last season and produced big time numbers.  Impatience at the plate is made up by a solid contact rate that has many thinking that he can flirt with a .300 batting average again. 
9. Shin-Soo Choo: If he stays healthy and can supply a bit more power, Choo could be a 20/20 player.  His power has sort of dip as he's projected to hit one home run in every 30.8 at bats and SLG% of .441.  Nevertheless, he's supposed to be a line-drive hitter anyway.  If he can maintain a high rate of line drives, Choo can be a steal at the RF position.

THIRD TIER

The rest of the field:

• Mark Trumbo (Power is the name of his game, but he'll drive you crazy in other categories).
• Hunter Pence (Solid power and a solid contact provides a solid batting average)
• Andre Ethier (.814 OPS makes him someone to look out for in drafts)
• Carlos Beltran (injury and age concerns. Miserable 2nd half, but might be worth the risk for the right price as he's projected to get an OPS of .868, per ESPN)
• Nelson Cruz (Can provide adequate power, but on-base% is terrible)
• Nick Swisher (new team, but should still reach close to 25 homers and and OPS of .800+. He's projected to strikeout more this season, however).
• Chris Davis (I really don't like this guy, but there's always room in fantasy baseball for guys who can hit 30 home runs on any given season. If you can't stomach the strikeouts and low on-base% (like yours truly), then feel free to pass on this guy)
• Nick Markakis (His counting stats won't "wow!" anyone, but his patience and great on-base% makes him relevant in fantasy circles)
• Torii Hunter (20 homers and a .780+ OPS might make him a useful RF in most leagues)

Keep an eye on: 

• Wil Myers (Baseball America's #1 Prospect. Just a matter of when?)
• Norichika Aoki (A pesky hitter who can drive pitchers crazy. His speed can net him 20+ steals.  Not much on power, however).
• Corey Hart (He will be recovering from knee surgery and won't be ready until May.  Players who aren't expected to be healthy by Opening Day are usually not worth drafting, but this guy might be an exception, especially if you can afford to keep him on Injured Reserve or if you have great depth already.  25 homers and .835 OPS can still help many teams, no matter the fantasy format).

More MLB content is available here.

To look back on Jay Bruce during his rookie year, check out this website!

2012 MLB PROSPECT REVIEW: #10-6

The next Miguel Cabrera is somewhere on this list.  But who could it be?
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos). 

Felipe M

10. Miguel Sano--3B--Minnesota Twins

• 2012 Outlook: "Might not be ready until 2013 and only 18.  Struggles with strikeouts, but might be the next Miguel Cabrera."
• 2012 Achievements: #1 Minnesota Twins' prospect along with Best Power Hitter and Infield Arm; #2 Midwest League Prospect and Best Infield Arm in league.
• Conclusion: Interestingly enough, Sano has also been compared to Giancarlo Stanton. Unfortunately, for many Twins' and fantasy fans alike, Sano is probably a long way from contributing in the big leagues.  Also, he needs to improve on his defense as he committed 42 errors at 3B.  Career minor league numbers are impressive, but keep in mind that he has yet to play above Lo-A ball.  He also needs to improve his plate approach (BB:K of .45).  He'll turn 20 in May.

9. Mike Trout--OF--Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Trout might have lost the battle to Cabrera in the MVP
voting, but heated discussions between baseball
traditionalists and "stats' geeks" ensued.
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos). 

• 2012 Outlook: "A future star.  If one of the regulars goes down, he's probably 1st player to be called up in 2012."
• 2012 Achievements: AL Rookie of the Year; 2nd place in AL MVP voting.
• Conclusion: Age and questionable, past prospects in the Angels' organization dropped Trout to #9 on the list.  His impressive Minor League numbers streamlined very well in the Majors last season.  He might be the best player in fantasy baseball this year as well.  Despite not winning the MVP this year, he did gain a lot of high reverence from the SABR community and was picked as the MVP in a lot of advanced, baseball stats' websites.  He is currently penciled in as the Angels' LF in 2013.  

8. Danny Hultzen--SP--Seattle Mariners

• 2012 Outlook: "Looked sharp in 2011 Arizona Fall League and might help in the Big Leagues, later in 2012."
• 2012 Achievements: #3 Prospect in Mariners' system.  #4 and #7 Prospect in Souther and Pacific Coast League, respectively.  Best Change Up in Southern League and in Mariners' system.
• Conclusion: So what do you do to a highly-touted prospect with all the skills and tools in the world? You force him to start his first year of pro ball in Double-A: not Rookie, Lo-A, but Double-A!  Let that sink in for a bit...He dominated Double-A, but struggled once he arrived in Triple-A so he might have to prove himself in the Minors, although there is talks that he might break spring training camp on the Mariners' roster, but all signs point to Hultzen arriving by mid-season, at best.  His Minor League numbers are as followed: WHIP 1.31; H/9 6.3; BB/9 5.4; K/99.9; K/BB 1.81.  

7. Shelby Miller--SP--St. Louis Cardinals

Will Shelby Miller pitch in this ballpark for the duration of
the 2013 season?
(photo courtesy of Felipe M).

• 2012 Outlook: "Dominated in Minors. Could be called up by mid-season."
• 2012 Achievements: #6 Prospect in Pacific Coast League. Pitched 6 games for the Cards, making one start.
• Conclusion: 2012, Triple-A numbers: WHIP 1.38; H/9 9.1; HR/9 1.6; BB/9 3.3; K/9 10.5; K/BB 3.20.  There's talk out of spring training that Miller might make the Cardinals' roster as a relief pitcher, but with the recent injury to Chris Carpenter, Miller might compete for starter role after all.  Should be interesting to see what the Cards do with the young pitcher, either way.  

6. Nolan Arenado--3B--Colorado Rockies

• 2012 Outlook: "Contact/Power combo, only Casey Blake is in his way.  A future star."
• 2012 Achievements: #8 in Texas League and League's best defensive 3B; Rockies' Best Defensive Infielder and Infield Arm, and Best Hitter for Average.
• Conclusion: Arenado struggled a bit last season in Double-A, but finished the campaign strong.  Stats: .285/.337/.428/.766 B:K .67.  Arenado is a longshot to break with the Rockies out of spring training, but is certainly in the mix to compete for the Rockies' 3B position.  Nevertheless, he looks to be a mid-season call up, at best for 2013. 

Prospects #15-11 are available here.

Top 5 is available here.