MARDI GRAS MADNESS: Texas Sooner

Felipe M

I continue to preview my head-2-head fantasy points' baseball keeper league.  The last team reviewed was team Halladay Holiday. 

Up next is a strong contender for the 2013 league championship.

CENTRAL DIVISION—TEXAS SOONER (out of Texas)

BATTING LINEUP

Like: I make no secret as to how much I like Ben Zobrist’s game: patience, pop, and versatility made him a much, sought-after commodity in drafts this season.  Aramis Ramirez, despite concerns with age and boom-and-bust tendencies, still makes him a legit option at the hot corner.  I also like Freddie Freeman’s game and I expect big things from him in 2013.  Shin-Soo Choo also came in this year with many concerns, but a new environment in a new league should be the remedy to make Choo a relevant name in fantasy.

2013 Hitting Projections
Player	Team	Pos	BB/K	AB/K	AB/HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB
Ben Zobrist	Tampa	2B/SS/RF	0.81	5.07	29.45	0.373	0.462	0.835	16
Aramis Ramirez	Milwaukee	3B	0.56	7.08	21.24	0.346	0.506	0.852	4
Freddie Freeman	Atlanta	1B	0.49	4.35	21.65	0.359	0.484	0.843	3

Dislike: Ichiro Suzuki and Austin Jackson in the starting OF might prove to be an Achilles’ heel.  I’m also not a fan of starting two SS’s.  Bad enough that the enigmatic Starlin Castro is slotted at that position, but Elvis Andrus was not born to be a fantasy, DH hitter. 

Look Out For: There’s a few names to mention here: Currently, Mike Napoli is starting at Catcher, but Mariners’ prospect, Mike Zunino might get called up sooner than many of us think as he begins his baseball career at Triple-A.  Jackie Bradley has been highly hyped this spring and is on the verge of making the Red Sox opening day squad.  Finally, Pablo Sandoval has elbow issues, but if he overcomes the injury, he can provide much needed offensive power that the Sooner is currently lacking at the moment.

BENCH: The only other player to mention is Carlos Correa, the #1 pick in the 2012 draft.  He will start his career in Class-A.  Might be a while.

PITCHING

Like: Justin Verlander and Stephen Strasburg: what more can I say?  Check out their stats below.

2013 Pitching Projections
Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/A
Justin Verlander	Detroit	3.93	9.23	2.35	7.31	1.07	0.77
Stephen Strasburg	Washington	4.42	10.91	2.47	7.27	1.08	0.79

Other pitchers worth noting: Homer Bailey as he seems to finally be refined enough to be an adequate pitcher in fantasy leagues.  Not a stud like he was expected to be, but he’s legit enough to warrant a spot; Anibal Sanchez and Mike Minor are excellent in support of Verlander and Strasburg.  Even C.J. Wilson will bring something to the table despite the low BB/9.  And having A.J. Burnett and Matt Harrison at the backend of the rotation is insane.  Not really a fan of Harrison, but as a spot starter in a points’ league, he is definitely a luxury.  This could possibly be the best starting staff in the league.

Dislike: Not a fan of Glen Perkins.  His low K/9 makes him an underwhelming choice for a closer.  Also, of all the closers out there, he has the 8^th worst, HR/9 rate.  Wei-Yin Chen—I’ve been preaching all spring: beware of this guy!  He is prone to give up plenty of long balls and a high 1.28 WHIP makes him not worth the headache that he will provide you.  But on a deep rotation like this, he may be worth the gamble, but considering the issues on offense that this team has, I would highly consider dropping Chen for a hitter.

Bullpen: Not only does this team have the two best right-handed pitchers in the game, but they also have the best closer in Craig Kimbrel.  He’s near automatic in the 9^th inning and almost unhittable. 

PREDICTION: The pitching staff is loaded and enough to carry the team to a championship.  The offense is lacking a consistent source of power and it might cost them late in the season, but it might be steady enough to prove to be adequate for much of the season.  They definitely need to find an upgrade for LF and CF and it might cost them in a title run, but a strong pitching staff has proven to be just enough to win a league title.  A better offense would increase their chances.  

More fantasy baseball is available here. 

CATCH!: 2013 Early Pre-Rankings--RF

Joey Bats!
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos)

Felipe M

CF pre-rankings are available here.

GREEN = on my keeper team. 

TOP TIER

1. Jose Bautista: There is concern that the wrist surgery he sustained last season might have affected his power, but he's still projected to attain these ridiculous numbers.  He's hitting in a better lineup so that should equal more RBI opportunities.  He's supposed to reach an OPS of .948 per ESPN. Plus wrist injury or not, his BB:K should remain one of the best in the games.
2. Justin Upton: He's ranked very high on many "experts'" list at this position, but it's his projected OPS that we calculated (.820) that drops him down to this spot.  He still remains a very attractive option in traditional Roto-leagues where his speed/power combo can potentially net a 25/25 season or even more if he can cut back on his whiffs.
3. Giancarlo Stanton: This guy is all power!  We project him at a .955 OPS and he's supposed to hit a homerun in every 12.45 official at bats.  However, he needs to be more patient at the plate before we move him to the top spot.
4. Jason Heyward: The way I see it, Heyward is Upton's clone.  The difference is that Justin Upton has the potential to exceed his counting stats' projections plus Upton has a slightly better on-base% and a bit more patient than Heyward (doesn't say much, but we're talking about a "game of inches.")  Heyward is a solid 25/20 guy.
5. Ben Zobrist: We've marveled about Zobrist's game throughout the preseason: the versatility  the patience at the plate, the good power/speed combo.  He's a very steady player and a solid pick in any league.

SECOND TIER

6. Jay Bruce: There's only reason why you would pick this guy: POWER!  He'll most likely hurt Roto-leaguers' batting average and in points' leagues, the strikeouts will drive you nuts, but keep in mind that he can reach a respectable on-base% of .343.  35 homers and .858 OPS still makes Bruce a great source of power.
7. Bryce Harper: Harper will show that he can hang permanently in the big leagues as he enters his second season.  He's still learning the big league game, but can still be a 25/25 guy.  
8. Allen Craig: .850 OPS is what makes Craig worth a risk despite a history of injuries.  He stayed healthy last season and produced big time numbers.  Impatience at the plate is made up by a solid contact rate that has many thinking that he can flirt with a .300 batting average again. 
9. Shin-Soo Choo: If he stays healthy and can supply a bit more power, Choo could be a 20/20 player.  His power has sort of dip as he's projected to hit one home run in every 30.8 at bats and SLG% of .441.  Nevertheless, he's supposed to be a line-drive hitter anyway.  If he can maintain a high rate of line drives, Choo can be a steal at the RF position.

THIRD TIER

The rest of the field:

• Mark Trumbo (Power is the name of his game, but he'll drive you crazy in other categories).
• Hunter Pence (Solid power and a solid contact provides a solid batting average)
• Andre Ethier (.814 OPS makes him someone to look out for in drafts)
• Carlos Beltran (injury and age concerns. Miserable 2nd half, but might be worth the risk for the right price as he's projected to get an OPS of .868, per ESPN)
• Nelson Cruz (Can provide adequate power, but on-base% is terrible)
• Nick Swisher (new team, but should still reach close to 25 homers and and OPS of .800+. He's projected to strikeout more this season, however).
• Chris Davis (I really don't like this guy, but there's always room in fantasy baseball for guys who can hit 30 home runs on any given season. If you can't stomach the strikeouts and low on-base% (like yours truly), then feel free to pass on this guy)
• Nick Markakis (His counting stats won't "wow!" anyone, but his patience and great on-base% makes him relevant in fantasy circles)
• Torii Hunter (20 homers and a .780+ OPS might make him a useful RF in most leagues)

Keep an eye on: 

• Wil Myers (Baseball America's #1 Prospect. Just a matter of when?)
• Norichika Aoki (A pesky hitter who can drive pitchers crazy. His speed can net him 20+ steals.  Not much on power, however).
• Corey Hart (He will be recovering from knee surgery and won't be ready until May.  Players who aren't expected to be healthy by Opening Day are usually not worth drafting, but this guy might be an exception, especially if you can afford to keep him on Injured Reserve or if you have great depth already.  25 homers and .835 OPS can still help many teams, no matter the fantasy format).

More MLB content is available here.

To look back on Jay Bruce during his rookie year, check out this website!

CATCH!: 2013 Early Pre-Rankings--SS

There's no doubting his ability, but can Tulo stay healthy for a full season?
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos)

Felipe M

Catchers are ranked, here.

1B are ranked, here.

2B are ranked, here.

GREEN=Currently on my keeper team. 

TOP TIER

1. Troy Tulowitzki: His ability is never in question; it's his health that seems to be a problem.  Projected OPS alone puts him way ahead of everybody else at the position.

2. Ben Zobrist: Just like in our 2B list, Zobrist's projections and position versatility are too good to pass up and ignore for 2013.

3. Jose Reyes: New team, new league; it will be interesting to see how Reyes responds to a totally new environment.  High contact rate, respectable on-base%, and stolen bases, presumably, will streamline very well. 

4. Starlin Castro: I'm really not sold on Castro, but his career numbers at this stage of his career seem to be comparable to some pretty good, Hall of Famers when they were Castro's age (22).  However, he needs to improve on his plate discipline and petty, in-game distractions on defense, but youth is definitely on his side.

5. Hanley Ramirez: What a miserable year it must have been to be a Hanley owner. He can still be a 20-20 player and he's projected to improve his plate discipline, but it's hard for me to take a risk on a guy who might be more of a headache than he's worth.

SECOND TIER

6. Ian Desmond: Came on strong late in 2012 as he was more aggressive at the plate.  Nevertheless, I find it hard to imagine him repeating Slash Lines of .292/.335/.511 with a terrible batting approach.  However, he's still projected to be a 20/20 player.

7. Jimmy Rollins: J-Roll is approaching that time in a player's career where diminished skills are too hard to overcome.  An impressive contact rate was his saving grace as it helped him hit 23 HRs and garner 30 stolen bases, but a paltry OPS of .743 is not going to cut it.  He needs to turn that contact rate into a higher batting average to help out Roto owners, but his projected low OPS for 2013 might hurt head2head owners.

8. Elvis Andrus: Decent contact rate and patience at the plate is how Andrus generates his most important attribute in fantasy: the ability to steal bases.  That combination also helps with batting average.

9. Erick Aybar: Never thought I would see the day that Aybar would make a top 10 in anything, but here we are.  Aybar has proven to be somewhat of a tough out and that's basically how he gets on base. Might hit 10 homeruns and is good for 25 stolen bases and his ability to make contact with the ball will help with batting average.

10. Asdrubal Cabrera: If "defensive wizardry" was aggregated in fantasy leagues, Cabrera's stock would be rising on this list.  However, it's an offensive-minded game. He brings 15/15 potential and a respectable on-base%. He does strikeout a lot so if you're in a head2head league that takes away points for that stat, you might want to look elsewhere for a more stable alternative.

11. Alcides Escobar: A recurring theme with shortstops, Escobar comes with a decent contact rate.  However, unlike the last few players listed, Escobar is very impatient at the plate.  Escobar comes with 30 steals potential and that's why he's on a lot of publications' top 15 list, but I, personally, would look elsewhere to fill out the position.

12. Marco Scutaro: There's that man again!  We explained Scutaro's 2013 outlook in our 2B projections.  Basically, impressive contact rate and patience, but advanced age is a factor.

13. Derek Jeter: Speaking of age: Jeter should be ready to go for 2013, barring more grotesque injuries.  Just like Scutaro, Jeter is an age risk (39). Good contact rate, impressive on-base numbers, and ability to hit for a high average make him an attractive choice in fantasy, but power has been pretty much sapped out of him and stolen bases are declining.  He's still a 10/10 player.  

THIRD TIER

The rest of the field: 

• Danny Espinosa (if he were more patient at the plate, he would definitely be a higher ranked middle infielder).
• J.J. Hardy
• Alexei Ramirez
• Andrelton Simmons
• Everth Cabrera
• Jed Lowrie (talk about your deep sleepers)

Keep an eye on:

• Jurickson Profar
• Yunel Escobar
• Billy Hamilton
• Jean Segura

Mor MLB content available here.

3B list is available here. 

CATCH!: 2013 Early Pre-Rankings--2B

Its Cano and then everybody else. (photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos)

Felipe M

Check out our Catchers' List.

Check out our 1B List. 

GREEN=Currently on my keeper team.

TOP TIER

1. Robinson Cano: NEXT!

2. Ben Zobrist: One of the most underrated players in baseball, it's time to recognize Zobrist for what he is: a versatile player with great big league hitting prowess.

3. Dustin Pedroia: "Laser Show" can put up numbers as well and name recognition will have picked very early in a lot of drafts.

4. Ian Kinsler: A down year in 2012, but Kinsler still possesses the skill set to bounce back in a big way.  Probably not a 30-30 player, but he's still a high contact, potential OPS .800 type of player.

5. Brandon Phillips: Never a fan of Phillips, but it's hard to ignore 15-15 potential along with a decent contact rate. 

SECOND TIER

6. Aaron Hill: Every time I count out Hill, he always comes back to have himself a big year.  Might be hard to foresee him produce another OPS of .882, but just like Phillips, he's a potential 15-15 guy with a solid contact rate. The difference is that Phillips is more reliable than Hill.

7. Neil Walker: A very underrated, highly neglected player for the Pirates, Walker provides decent pop and better on-base% than Phillips and Hill.  Strikes out too much, but still provides adequate contact skills.

8. Jason Kipnis: Probably has the most untapped potential out of the 2B listed thus far.  Can probably expect major improvements in his skill-set, but there are other players that are more proven than Kipnis.  Has decent pop and can be a nuisance for opposing pitchers/catchers on the basepaths.

9. Jose Altuve:  The diminutive 2B can be a pesky hitter and a nuisance on the basepaths, but outside of a high batting average and maybe 30 stolen bases, Altuve offers very little of anything else. 

10. Howard Kendrick: Just like many homegrown Angels, I'm not enamored with Kendrick's game, but I admit that he does indeed bring something to to the table: a high batting average and the potential to be a 15-15 hitter. 

11. Rickie Weeks: The only reason to gamble on Weeks is for his power numbers.  However, a high strikeout rate and a terrible batting approach might offset his power and promising on-base%. However, 20 HRs and 15 stolen bases can be hard to ignore when you're trying to decide on the backend list of 2B.

12. Marco Scutaro: What a weird season Scutaro had in 2012: he was a disappointment in Colorado, but was able to find his hitting groove in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. What a weird game this is. Caution: Scutaro is 37 years-old and will probably not continue to be on the hitting tear that he was with the Giants in late 2012.  However, armed with an extremely high contact rate and a persistent discipline at the plate, Scutaro can still hit for .290+ and produce a respectable on-base%.

13. Chase Utley: Normally, I would have Utley ahead of Scutaro and a lot of other guys, but health issues have hindered him from his usual spot in elite status and has relegated him to the back of the line at the position. When healthy, he still torch the ball, but you will be need to handcuff him to a more healthy alternative.

THIRD TIER

The rest of the field: 

• Danny Espinosa (keep an eye on him.  Might provide enough pop to warrant a roster spot)
• Daniel Murphy
• Omar Infante
• Dan Uggla (how the mighty have fallen)
• Jeff Keppinger
• Kelly Johnson
• Dustin Ackley (when he was coming up, he was supposed to be the heir apparent to Chase Utley. I'm still holding out hope for that prophecy to come to fruition).

Keep an eye on:

• Jurickson Profar
• Logan Forsythe
• Kolten Wong
• Eddie Rosario

More MLB content is available here.

Shortstops are available here. 

2012 MLB PROSPECT REVIEW: #75-71

Felipe M

The following is a review of a list that was compiled way back in March of 2012.  "2012 Outlooks" are based on a summation of scouting reports (entering the 2012 MLB season) of each player condensed into a sentence or two for easier reading.

75. Jeurys Familia--SP--New York Mets

• 2012 Outlook: "Hard-thrower, but has control problems.  Might contribute in 2012."
• 2012 Achievements: #14 International League Prospect; Made 8 pitching appearances for the Mets last season.
• Conclusion: Familia's control problems did not get any better in the Minors last season, but after 28 starts, the Mets called him up anyway and placed him in their bullpen--he did not fare any better.  Despite the lack of results, many experts think he can be a closer, at best, for the Big League club and was reportedly going to pitch in the Dominican League as a reliever this fall. He will be competing to come out of the bullpen for the Mets in 2013.

74. Addison Reed--RP--Chicago White Sox

• 2012 Outlook: "Competing for Closer's role in 2012." 
• 2012 Achievements: Notched 29 saves for the White Sox
• Conclusion: Very surprisingly, Reed did indeed end up being the closer on the South Side of Chicago, even though there was wide speculation that the Sox would option him back to the Minors out of Spring Training and wasn't named the official closer until late May.  He only had 2 full seasons of Minor League ball, but quickly moved up the White Sox system, making 56 appearances. He posted a respectable strikeout rate in the Majors and proved to have good control.  However, he did prove to be hittable (9.79 H/9 in 68 big league appearances) and is proving to be a flyball pitcher who pitches in a small ballpark in Chicago. Despite the need to improve his command, Reed looks to have the edge to close for the White Sox in 2013. 

73. Deck McGuire--P--Toronto Blue Jays

• 2012 Outlook: "Might arrive mid-season. 'Safe,' but unspectacular."
• 2012 Achievements: N/A
• Conclusion: McGuire spent 2012 at Double-A, where he ended up having a disastrous season full of command and control issues and an inability to keep the ball in the park.  To top it off, his strikeout rate plummeted as well.  Clearly, he will need more time in Minors to fix his problems.

72. Taylor Green--2B--Milwaukee Brewers

• 2012 Outlook: "Lit up AAA (in 2011).  The next Ben Zobrist."
• 2012 Achievements: Played in Dominican League; Appeared in 103 at-bats for Brewers.
• Conclusion: After struggling in Triple-A (decreased power numbers, on-base%, and BB:K), the Brewers called him up for infield depth. Green posted ordinary numbers for the big league club and at 26 years-old, Green's time is running out. 

71. Starling Marte--OF--Pittsburgh Pirates

• 2012 Outlook: "Already fast with raw power. Needs to be more patient. Might join Big League Club in 2012.
• 2012 Achievements: Played in Dominican League; #2 Prospect in International League as well as Best Batting Prospect, Defensive OF, and Most Exciting Player in League.
• Conclusion: Marte played in 47 games for the Bucs last season and is expected to compete for LF spot in 2013. Marte has indeed displayed high contact rate and power potential in the last two seasons in the Minors, but has a lot of work to do in improving plate discipline.  Marte is also a decent base-stealer.

Prospects #80-76 can be viewed here.

Prospects #70-66 can be viewed here.