LINE DRIVES: v1.0

Suddenly, San Diego has a launching pad for hitters.
(photo courtesy of Felipe M)

Felipe M

I'll be sharing my random thoughts on the MLB games from April 9, 2013.

SO MUCH FOR A PITCHERS' PARK

The Houston Astros beat the Seattle Mariners 16-9 at Safeco Field.  The San Diego Padres won at Petco Park, scoring 9 runs.  We have been waiting in anticipation to see how the changes in dimensions at these two parks would alter offensive production.  Right away, we're seeing changes.

Taking a look back at 2012, only three times did we see teams put up nine or more runs, in one game, last year at Safeco (roughly once every 27 games).  The most runs that one team had accumulated in one game was on October 3, 2012 when the Mariners blanked the Angels, 12-0 (against Jered Weaver, no less).  The most combined runs at Safeco last season occurred on April 17, 2012 when the Mariners and Indians scored 17 total runs.  27 runs were scored between the Astros and Mariners last night.  

Petco was better last year: seven was the number of times teams had scored 9 or more runs in one game last year.  The highs came on September 16, 2012 when the Padres scored a season high at home of 12 runs and they and the Rockies accumulated 23 runs total in that game.  However, only their first game in 2013 and the Padres have all ready scored 9 runs in one game.  

One game does not make a full MLB season, but it's safe to say that after Tuesday's match-ups, both ballparks, in terms of offense, are off to a good start.  

ASTRO WOES

Speaking of the Astros, the 16 runs were the most they have scored since they scored 18 runs in August of 2010.  The Astros defeated the Cardinals, 18-4 in St. Louis.  In that game, none of the Astros hit a homerun in, but they did hit 4 doubles and 1 triple.  SS Angel Sanchez tallied 6 RBI.  This year, the Astros are 0-6 when scoring fewer than 3 runs.  They have all ready failed to score more than 3 runs in 75% of their games.  Bad sign.

METS AT PHILLIES

The Phillies' struggles in the starting rotation have been well-documented as Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay have not pitched up to par early this season.  Thankfully, they have Cliff Lee who pitched a great game against the Mets last night.  It also helped that the Phillies' bats came alive after being shutdown by pitching phenom, Matt Harvey on Monday.  

Unfortunately, it all came at the expense of Mets' pitcher Dillon Gee who had command issues all night.  So far this year, Gee has pitched 9 and a 1/3 innings and has the following stats after 2 starts: 5.8 K/9; 2.9 BB/9 AND HR/9; 12.6 H/9; 1.71 WHIP.  All of this while inducing  more groundouts than flyouts.  We've mentioned how well Gee pitched last season before being shut down for the year because of injury.  But that's the thing about pitchers like Gee.  He has potential to rack up the strikeouts, but deep down, he is a pitch-to-contact pitcher.  When pitchers like Gee don't have their best stuff and can't fight through it, they'll have nights like these.  Should be very interesting how he bounces back in his next start.  

NOW WE CAN START THE SEASON

Washington Nationals' 1B Adam LaRoche had zero hits.  Now he has two hits after his team beat the White Sox last night.  Both of his hits are homeruns.  Talk about an "all-or-nothing" approach.  LaRoche has always had a reputation for being a slow starter for his teams so it's not surprising that's he's off to the slowest of starts this year as well.  But he is struggling so bad that in the game where he hit 2 homers, he also struck out twice.  A deeper look shows that LaRoche, this season has been swinging for more strikes than in years past.  Of the 57% of pitches that are called for strikes, 24% have been of the swing-and-miss variety--his career average is 17%.  Only 12% of those pitches are actually called strikes because of foul balls--he averages 27%.  

So his timing, clearly, is not there yet, but getting back to his all-or-nothing approach, he's hit a lot more flyballs than groundballs so far this season so when he does make contact, he's looking to drive the ball into the air, but only 17% of his contact have been line drives (career line-drive% of 20%).  Because of this approach, he's suffering the worst Balls-in-Play% of his career (only 56% compared to a career 64%) and of those flyballs, 20% are not leaving the infield.  That's a lot of pop outs.  Will have to keep tabs on this guy and reconvene next week for an update.  

PICK YOUR POISON

If you can only have one closer on your team, who would it be: Carlos Marmol  or John Axford?

Outside of strikeouts, Marmol has struggled mightily with control and looks like he's pitching batting practice when he comes out of the bullpen.  Hitters have posted an OPS of 1.490.  Yikes!  It also doesn't help that Marmol is a flyball pitcher who can't produce outs via the flyout (most of his outs this season have come by way of groundouts).  His line-drive% against is 29% and it doesn't help that 27% of the strikes that he throws are put into play (above career average).  Obviously, hitters aren't being fooled or deceived by his pitches as Marmol only has a 13% in swinging-strike%.  And he gets ahead of the hitters more times than not.  55% of the time he throws a first-pitch strike.  32% of hitters see themselves down 0-2 in the count (much higher than his 2012 rate).  But as mentioned before, it's like he's pitching batting practice out there as these hitters, so far, are hungry when they see him out there--Marmol's contact percentage is a high, 80%!

And then there's Axford: he has a line-drive% against of 53%, OPS against of 1.828, a whopping 41% of his strikes are put in play (about twice his career average).  His contact% is much lower than Marmol's however and has a higher swinging-strikes% than Marmol (22%).    Only 19% of hitters see themselves at an 0-2 count.  However, he puts himself at a disadvantage by giving hitters a 3-0 count, 14% of the time (well above his norm).  

So of the two, who has a better chance to rebound?  The numbers are absolutely horrendous and I was trying to look for positives and couldn't find much.  If I have to pick one that is most likely to improve as the season progresses, it's probably Marmol.  At least he's getting ahead of the count more often than Axford.  Maybe it's a sign.  Or maybe it's not.  

And on that sour note...

#BrewersCubs thinking trade now: #marmolfor #axford straight up? #Tradetalk
— Felipe M (@pathological_h8) April 8, 2013

More MLB content is available here.  

MAKING THE PITCH: Philadelphia Phillies

Felipe M

Even though the season has started, it's still early enough to take a quick look at the rest of the pitching staffs.

We left off reviewing the Pittsburgh Pirates.  

The Philadelphia Phillies are equipped with arguably the best 1-2-3 combo in all of baseball.  

2013 Pitching Projections
Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/9
Cliff Lee	Philadelphia	6.94	8.76	1.26	8.23	1.05	0.90
Roy Halladay	Philadelphia	5.18	7.84	1.51	8.47	1.11	0.89
Cole Hamels	Philadelphia	4.06	8.83	2.18	7.85	1.11	0.98
Kyle Kendrick	Philadelphia	2.16	5.75	2.66	9.48	1.35	0.96
Jonathan Papelbon	Philadelphia	4.25	11.25	2.65	7.41	1.12	0.93

Kyle Kendrick seemed to have received a lot of attention this offseason as he saw his strikeout totals go up in 2012.  He even left spring training with a K/BB of 12/3, but still got lit up for a high ERA of 6.88.  However, Kendrick's game is all about control and pitching-to-contact as his projected WHIP of 1.35 is more of a reality than the 1.28 he posted last season.  I would keep an eye on him just to see if his improvement from last season is legit or a fluke. There's a reason why he's still available in 80% of CBS leagues.  

Jonathan Papelbon is clearly one of the best closers in baseball.  The only knock on him is that saves might be hard to come by as the team is loaded with starters that can eat up the innings, costing Papelbon a few save chances, but that's just me nit-picking, obviously. 

John Lannan is listed as the 5th starter.  I don't like him, never did like, and never will like him.  However, my curiosity as to why this guy continues to be given chances to pitch in the Big Leagues has been piqued.  So upon further review, after making all the calculations and reading all the reports, here's what I found out: Lannan did have a solid spring, but gave up 12 runs in 4 innings in his last exhibition start; He had a mediocre year with the Nationals in 2012, but did finish with a 4-1 record and based on what we know about GM, Ruben Amaro, that's good enough for him because that's how he defines "production."; Plus he did have a FIP of 3.17 which isn't so bad, but he has a career K/BB of 1.39.  Please don't make the mistake of giving this guy a chance on your team.  

 I don't think I have to explain myself on Cliff Lee.  His 2012 season was such a major fluke, but was still able to post good strikeout totals and even improved his BB/9.  

The same thing goes for Cole Hamels.  Albeit, he did struggle against the Braves on opening night, but he is coming off a successful 2012 campaign and spring training.  He'll be fine.

I didn't think I had to explain myself on Roy Halladay, but there were whispers of doubt in the offseason, but I didn't think they deserved my attention.  And then, today, sports pundits from everywhere are acting like a bunch of Chicken Littles after one start from Halladay.  What's wrong?  He's coming off a sub-par, by his standards, 2012 season.  Injuries limited him to only 25 starts last year.  Nevertheless, he still had good strikeout totals and did a great job in limiting his walks.  He did give up a lot of hits which raised his WHIP to 1.22, but the last time he had a WHIP that high, 2007, he won 16 games for the Blue Jays and still did a great job in limiting his walks.  He did, however, have low strikeouts and a high hit rate.  He also had a H/9 of 8.94 in 2012, the first time he's given up that many base-hits since 2009.  So perhaps 2012 was just an isolated incident and injuries might have played a bigger role than anticipated, right? 

Well, what the numbers don't tell us is that in 2012, there were reports of decrease in velocity in his fastball.  Like I explained though, there were small murmurs throughout the spring that got louder and louder until his opening day start to the season yesterday where he got lit up by the Braves.  Here's a quick timeline:

• February 13, 2013: Halladay declares that he's healthy entering spring training.  He credits a new, offseason workout regiment that focuses "on movements to build strength and flexibility in his lower back and core."
• Feb 19: Halladay throws live Batting Practice and according to witnesses, he looked impressive.  Even new teammate, Michael Young stated that he looked like the pitcher he used to face when Halladay was still a Blue Jay.
• Feb 24: Halladay throws 22 pitches, gives up one homerun, but doesn't allow a baserunner against the Tigers.  One scout did report clocking his velocity between 89-91 mph
• March 1: Strong performance against the Yankees. 
• March 6: Dominated the Nationals. 
• March 12: Rocked against the Detroit Tigers
• March 13: Pitching coach, Rich Dubee reminds fans and media that "Halladay is healthy this season."
• March 17: Leaves game after one inning because of stomach virus.
• March 18: During a bullpen session, Halladay is only able to top his fastball at 87 mph
• March 19: Still recovering from a stomach virus. Lost 10 pounds because of illness
• March 23: Has a terrible game against Triple-A hitters.  Can only top 90 mph once!
• March 28: Another poor outing and once again, his fastball reaches 88-91.
• April 3: Throws 95 pitches, 40 in the 1st inning, ends up only completing 3 1/3 innings. He strikes out 9, walks 3, and gives up 2 homeruns.  
• Becomes first pitcher to get 9 K's, but only record 10 or less outs in MLB history.
• Halladay states that he will fix problems.

During all this time, Halladay and coach Dubee were constantly working together throughout the spring to try and figure out how to improve his mechanics and such.  The Phillies also said that they weren't concerned with Halladay.  Halladay himself stated that he would be ready for his first start of the year.

Personally, I would give the benefit of the doubt to Halladay.  The team was high on him to begin the year and although he has been getting rocked, overcoming stomach issues is a difficult endeavor.  And even though his fastball is down, it's like opposing hitter Jason Heyward says, "he has a lot of weapons" in his pitching repertoire.  He was able to strikeout 9 hitters so that has to be a good sign.  I'm optimistic that he will be able to get around a dwindling fastball and focus more on location instead of trying to blow by everybody with his fastball.  And as mentioned before, Halladay wasn't always known as a strikeout artist as evident by his 2004-2007 seasons in Toronto.  Might take some time to make the adjustment, but if anybody can adjust, it's Halladay.  He's done it before.

The pessimist would point out the terrible command and the ineffectiveness of his fastball and secondary pitches, as well as his struggles in the 2nd half of the spring.  The low velocity might mark the beginning of the end of the 35 year-old Halladay.  

Nevertheless, it's sort of odd to see a pitcher like Halladay just suddenly see his production and ability go up in smoke so quickly.  I would practice patience with a guy like him, no doubt.  Would I activate him for his next start?  No, I would let him sit on the bench and let him figure it out there.  But one start doesn't predict an entire season.  Perhaps, after a few more starts (4 or 5 seems about right) would be a reasonable timetable to reevaluate him.

More MLB content is available here.  

MARDI GRAS MADNESS: South Jersey Strong Arms

Felipe M

We continue on our reviews for our fantasy baseball league, Mardi Gras Madness.  Please take some time to read about the Houston Steelers. 

Last, but definitely not least is our defending champion and a big time Phillies' fan--and Dallas Cowboys' fan.  What?

CENTRAL DIVISION--So. Jersey Strong Arms (it must be a Jersey thang)

BATTING LINEUP

Like: You can tell this guy is a Phillies’ fan: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins are starting on the team’s infield.  Whether they can take it back to 2008 is another question, but lucky for them, they won’t be doing it on their own as Buster Posey, Andrew McCutchen and Yoenis Cespedes can provide plenty of offense as well.  

2013 Hitting Projections
Player	Team	Pos	BB/K	AB/K	AB/HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB
Yoenis Cespedes	Oakland	LF/CF	0.45	5.05	22.03	0.345	0.482	0.827	16
Buster Posey	San Francisco	C/1B	0.70	5.77	23.61	0.390	0.510	0.900	2
Andrew McCutchen	Pittsburgh	CF	0.64	4.77	22.53	0.380	0.500	0.880	23
Ben Revere	Philadelphia	CF/RF	0.58	10.08	571.33	0.329	0.334	0.663	42
Michael Morse	Seattle	LF/RF	0.24	4.00	21.42	0.326	0.468	0.794	1
Will Middlebrooks	Boston	3B	0.17	3.67	20.80	0.304	0.463	0.767	8

Dislike: I might be too harsh on Will Middlebrooks, but even though he provided a spark for teams last year and showed off his power, he still had plenty of holes in his swing and terrible approach at the plate.  He needs to improve on that aspect of this game is this team expects to repeat as Champions.  And as a Michael Morse owner last season, I understand he was hurt, but that still doesn’t excuse his hacking style at the plate.  And Ben Revere should not be a DH in a fantasy lineup. 

Look Out For: This team has both Billy Hamilton and Jurickson Profar on the same club.  I’m not even sure if both players will be called up this season, but certainly a very interesting strategy to have two players playing in the same position.  Then again, the Reds have been talking about moving Hamilton to the OF and the Rangers have played with the idea of moving their veteran infielders move around just so they can make room for Profar.

Bench: Revere and Carlos Gomez will probably, but questionably be alternating the DH spot.  Gomez has good counting stats, but a disastrous approach at the plate.  Chase Headley can probably become the permanent DH/3B when he gets back from injury.

PITCHING

Like: The Philly theme continues with Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee anchoring the pitching staff.  In support of these two are mixes of young and veteran pitchers with more question marks to their game than anything.  So I will list the ones that have a better chance of succeeding here (not to guarantee that they will, but given the options, I’m speaking in relative terms): Alex Cobb is supposed to bust out this season and was impressive in the spring, especially when you talk about his K/9; Alexi Ogando is a promising pitcher with good, projected numbers.  However, he did struggle this spring, but was able to post impressive strikeout totals; Marco Estrada pitched pretty well in the spring and his projections show that he might be in line for a big year.

2013 Pitching Projections
Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/9
Alexi Ogando	Texas	3.23	8.14	2.52	8.14	1.18	1.09
Alex Cobb	Tampa	2.13	6.80	3.19	8.48	1.30	0.78
Marco Estrada	Milwaukee	3.55	8.85	2.49	8.51	1.22	1.22

Dislike: There’s a lot of pitchers I don’t like on this team, but the worst of the bunch is Edinson Volquez.  Volquez had a bad spring and he still continues to give up too many walks (a problem he still has since his days with the Reds.  I wrote about this issue when reviewing the Padres’ pitching staff).  Another Opening Day starter I don’t like is Bud Norris who not only is supposed to be on a bad team that may not provide the run support he needs, he also has issues with walks and is projected to have a terrible WHIP.  To Norris’ credit, he did get the win for the Astros on Sunday night.    Jorge de la Rosa is a 32 year-old recovering from Tommy John surgery.  He shouldn’t be on anybody’s team.  Kyle Kendrick is another pitcher who should have been left on waivers as well. 

Bullpen: Amazingly enough, this team has no closers on the squad.

Look Out For: James McDonald seems to slowly, but surely be climbing up the pitchers’ list and distance himself from the Volquezes and Norrises of the world.  He can provide good strikeout numbers and if he cuts back on the walks, he might provide much needed production on this team.  Shaun Marcum is injured once again, but when he’s healthy, he can be productive.  Might be the pitcher to add some quality depth on this team.  Speaking of injury, Chad Billingsley is on the club as well and beginning the year on the DL.  He’s done a good job cutting back on the walks and is actually better off as a back of the rotation guy than as an integral part of any pitching staff (like he was projected to be when he was coming up with the Dodgers).

PREDICTION: Despite having all of these pitchers on the team, they really don’t have much depth.  Remember, quantity does not necessarily mean quality.  They have the potential to surprise people by potentially having a great 5-man combo in their pitching staff, but which of these other quizzical pitchers will step up and have a breakthrough season?  They are also a big bat away from having a complete lineup.  If they can’t make a trade to improve their offense, then they’ll have to depend on a few hitters who have very limited skills at the plate.  Injured 3B Headley might be that player, but he too comes with plenty of issues as well.  Too many ifs and question marks on this team to project them as a playoff team, therefore another title seems to be out of reach.  

Check out the rest of the Mardi Gras Madness teams.

More fantasy baseball is available here.