BRAGGIN' RIGHTS: 2013 Fantasy Basketball Champion

Different fantasy sport, same team name; same result.

Felipe M

With the NBA Playoffs looming, now would be the time for me to give myself some kudos.  As I explained before, I am part of a highly competitive fantasy basketball keeper league and my team, Baraka Obama, was having a banner year and was coming off a trade that helped me acquire Monta Ellis.  With that move, I solidified my backcourt, but I was still thin at the frontcourt.  Even worse, I had to give up Pau Gasol to make this deal.  I was looking forward to inserting him into the lineup after battling foot issues that cost him a huge chunk of the season.  I would easily had slid him into my starting lineup and help out my frontcourt.  Alas, even with Ellis on board, my squad was still a mess.  

Very late in the season, it's hard to find any reliable and productive players on the waiver wire.  However, there was this one player that I have been keeping tabs on for the entire season.  

We first made a big deal about the firing of Scott Skiles and how that would improve the overall production from their suddenly deep frontcourt.  Not listed was Tobias Harris, but I made it my priority to keep an eye on this guy for the rest of the season.  This was back in early January, but I had this hunch that based on his ability and the scouting report that I acknowledged back on his draft day, I was just simply gravitated towards him and it was imperative to take special notice and follow him for the rest of the year.  

Harris finally busted out to have his most productive week of the season back on February 23, 2013.  It was a good showing by the former Milwaukee Bucks' player.  Considering that the game was his debut with his new team, the Orlando Magic.  Solid effort, but not good enough to warrant a roster move.  Finally, on February 27, 2013, he exploded for 23 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists and two steals in 31 minutes of play.  It was unbelievable that no one else had picked him up.  I immediately dropped Michael Kidd-Gilchrist that night in order to make room for Harris and he performed beyond my wildest imagination.  

With a solid frontcourt intact, my squad was finally ready to be legit contenders for the championship.  Not only that, but the move elevated the play of Omer Asik and most notably, Spencer Hawes.  I don't know what it is, might be a mere coincidence, but sometimes, when you make certain decisions on your fantasy team, it somehow affects the rest of the squad.  We're talking in indirect, intangible terms here, but for those that are serious about their fantasy sports, sometimes outside factors, beyond your control, get together and elevates the entire team to a higher level.  Of course, the converse also holds true as a string of back luck will definitely cripple your squad.

At any rate, I was able to win the Bryant Division (yes, named after Kobe, the most hated player in my little world).  Unfortunately, I was forced to face the hottest team in the last 10 games or so, the Nut Sac Lootmonkeys (the "Sac" stands for Sacramento.  The squad is run by our resident, disgruntled Kings' fan, Josh C). 

You're talking about a team that was not only winning, but with their high scoring, they were humiliating opponents every single week.  They were definitely an immovable force in the 2nd half of the season.  They were led by the following players:

• Goran Dragic
• Brandon Jennings
• Ty Lawson
• John Wall
• Gordon Hayward
• Andre Iguodala
• Dirk Nowitzki
• Paul Pierce
• Marc Gasol
• Al Jefferson

And they still had injured players Kevin Garnett, Andre Drummond, and Kenneth Faried on the bench.  This team was very deep!

I went with my thin lineup of the following players:

• DeMar Derozan
• Monta Ellis
• Jeremy Lin
• Dwyane Wade
• Tim Duncan
• Kevin Durant
• Tobias Harris
• David Lee
• Omer Asik
• Spencer Hawes

Even with Lootmonkeys' injuries, my team just didn't look very formidable compared to his.  I gave myself an optimistic 45% chance of winning this game.  Sure enough, the 'Monkeys scored 350+ points.  Unfortunately for them, I ended up scorign 365 points!  Who would have thought that Duncan, very late in the season, would continue to get enough minutes to produce big time numbers?  And there's Harris with the surprising 44.5 points.  Wade and Ellis combined for 83 big points.  Special note is Hawes accumulated 37.5 points.  Real proud of him and the improvements he made as the season progressed.

On to the Championship Game and once again, I was stuck having to face my divisional foe and longtime nemesis, Eyebrows the Net (or as I like to call him, Tim C from KC).  After beating him in our first match-up, he went on to win the next two contests.  His team, although not as strong as the Lootmonkeys, was picking up steam as they entered the playoffs.  They defeated the best team in the league, in terms of win-loss record, Young Blood, to get to the championship game.  Final score: 346-322.

For the Championship Game and the 4th and final game between us, the Net went with the following lineup:

• Stephen Curry
• Damian Lillard
• Isaiah Thomas
• Russell Westbrook
• Nicolas Batum
• Luol Deng
• Zach Randolph
• Tirstan Thompson
• Anthony Davis
• Greg Monroe

I went with the same lineup that got me into the Championship Game, despite the fact that D-Wade was reported to miss a few games because of an ankle injury.  He would later go on to miss the entire week and post a big, whopping ZERO POINTS!  I was devastated by his absence. I even conceded the match-up to my opponent on that Saturday.  How can my team win short-handed?

What I didn't realize was that the Net was dealing with an injury of their own.  Batum had only posted 15 points as he was dealing with a shoulder problem (eventually would end his season).  With a whole slate of weekend games to go, my situation was not very favorable as I was holding onto a small lead going into the weekend.  However, despite D-Wade's absence, we prevailed!

49 points from my favorite player, Kevin Durant, 41 from Harris, 42 from Lee, Hawes and Asik combined for 60 points at center and even Jeremy Lin showed up with 40.5 to add to Ellis' 44.  

Truly a satisfying season.  I worked hard in my draft preparation during the offseason, went outside my comfort zone and made a whopping FOUR TRADES (I usually am lucky enough to perform one trade per year, let alone four), and kept my eyes glued to the waiver wire.  After years of many losing seasons and seasons where my team was knocked out of the first round of the playoffs, we finally made it over the top, defeated a couple of great teams and now we scream from the mountaintop as champions!

Can't wait for these NBA Playoffs to start all ready, but as we close out another season in our Big Ballers' keeper league season, as always, I'm looking forward for another exciting season in 2013-'14.

We leave you with our review of Tobias Harris' after he was selected by the Bucks:

"Tobias Harris out of Tennessee was selected by Milwaukee. Described as a "versatile" perimeter player with a "high basketball IQ," this player has a reputation for his hard work and for being a gym rat. On the downside, Harris was one of the few players in this draft whose lack of athleticism was a major concern."

More NBA content is available here. 

BRAGGIN' RIGHTS: 2013 Fantasy Basketball Update

Felipe M

My credentials....
(photo courtesy of Felipe M)

I haven't talked too much about my fantasy basketball team, the basketball Baraka Obama, all year long.  This is a travesty because we're having a really good season, so far.  We've lead the BRYANT DIVISION for most of the season, but team Eyebrows the Net have finally caught up and we're deadlocked at 13-5, with only 3 games (including this week) left to this season.  I believe they win the tie-breaker to win the division, but I still control my own destiny in the Wild Card meaning a possible match-up in the playoffs with arch-rival, long-time nemesis, the EJ-led Young Blood (former editor of this blog). 

Quick background on this league:

• It is a keeper league that was established on CBSsportsline, back in 2004, but most of us have been playing fantasy basketball since 2002.
• It's a fantasy point, head-2-head league.
• 1 point for every point scored
• 2 points for Assists
• -1 for turnovers
• 3 points for steals and blocks
• Nightly, individual scores are averaged, so number of games in a week are not important.  It's all about EFFICIENT PRODUCTION.
• Teams must start 4 guards, 4 forwards, 2 centers and can have up to 4 bench players, plus an IR slot for long-term, injured players
• All teams participate in post-season play, but only the top 4 teams play for the Championship.
• The middle 4 teams play for the #5 pick in next year's draft in a consolation bracket.
• The bottom 4 teams play to increase their chances in the lottery sweepstakes, for the #1 pick in next year's draft, in their own, separate bracket.
• Trades are not limited to only 2 teams as 3-way, and I believe even 4-way trades, have been completed before in this league's history.

We've just went through our trade deadline this past week and after a year full of questionable, quirky, and quizzical transactions between two teams (no 3-way deals this year), the trade deadline has thankfully come and gone, but not before its most controversial deal occurred at the last minute.  More on that later.

So far, team Baraka Obama ranks in the following categories... 

....(again, quick review on the evolution of my team name: Formerly team Kingdom Conker: named after the video games Kingdom Hearts and Conker's Bad Fur Day. After almost a decade of losing, changed the name of the team after having Kevin Durant for a 2nd full season to Baraka Obama: named after the character from Mortal Kombat and, of course, the current president of the U.S.A.  Its also the name of my current football team, but thinking of changing the name next season)...

• 3rd in Points For
• 2nd in FG%
• 2nd in FT%
• 3rd in Rebounds, Assists, and Turnovers per game
• 6th in Steals
• 2nd in Blocks per game
• Dead last in 3-point shooting (but, thankfully, this isn't a roto-style league)

We've mentioned Young Blood leading his RODMAN DIVISION, while our very own, disgruntled Sacramento Kings' fan, Josh Chiaratti has wrapped up his dominance of the lowly BARKLEY DIVISION.  Which proves once again that if you contribute to any of my blogs, you will be very successful in fantasy sports (except for Reggie's team, Van Excellence.  He's sitting pretty at 6-12 and on his way to one of the consolation brackets.  To be fair, however, he technically never wrote a sports' article for us so that would explain that).

Clearly, at 13-5, I took my own advice leading up to our annual fantasy basketball draft.  Here's how my team looked for week 1 of play:

GREEN = KEEPER PLAYER

YELLOW =  DRAFTED PLAYER

PURPLE = ACQUIRED VIA TRADE

RED = ACQUIRED VIA FREE AGENCY/WAIVERS

GUARDS

• RAJON RONDO
• JEREMY LIN
• RODNEY STUCKEY
• BRADLEY BEAL

FORWARDS

• KEVIN DURANT
• PAU GASOL*
• TIM DUNCAN
• ANDREI KIRILENKO

CENTERS

• ANDREW BOGUT
• KEVIN GARNETT

BENCH

• J.R. SMITH
• TONY ALLEN
• THOMAS ROBINSON
• HARRISON BARNES

INJURED

• AMAR'E STOUDEMIRE (selected in the 1st round (virtually the 4th round, after keepers) of the draft.  Yep, bad move!)

*Pau Gasol acquired via trade in the offseason for Brook Lopez and swapped draft slots

I got off to an amazing start, but injuries soon caught up to me and my "Greatest Paper Team Ever Drafted" looked very vulnerable and on its way to collapse.  Nevertheless, the resiliency of the squad, led by Durant, kept me in games and maintained my pace towards the playoffs.  However, with a veteran team like this, and with Rondo's imminent exit looming after the season (after this season, I could only keep Durant or Rondo, but not both.  Who would you pick?), I had to ditch my "patient" approach to fantasy sports and get aggressive in the trade market.  At first, these trades looked awful as I was forced to trade producing veterans and depth, for more explosive players and more help (quantity over quality) in the middle.  The trades did, eventually, begin to payoff as I have not suffered a losing streak of more than 2 games all season long.  Nonetheless, I was mostly "winning ugly," while the other elite teams seemed to be crushing the competition on a weekly basis.  

As the trade deadline approached, I needed to make one more move for the final push for the playoffs.  I needed help everywhere it seemed like, but had to go after a guard.  After going through countless trade scenarios, I was approached with a deal that would sacrifice the little frontcourt depth that I had, for that elusive guard. Here's what my team looks like after the trade deadline:

GUARDS

• DWYANE WADE***
• MONTA ELLIS****
• JEREMY LIN
• DEMAR DEROZAN**

FORWARDS

• KEVIN DURANT
• DAVID LEE*
• TIM DUNCAN
• TOBIAS HARRIS

CENTERS

• OMER ASIK**
• MARCIN GORTAT***

BENCH

• AMAR'E STOUDEMIRE
• SPENCER HAWES
• KIRK HINRICH
• TIAGO SPLITTER

*David Lee was acquired in a deal proposed by Van Excellence for Kevin Garnett and Ron Artest

**DeMar DeRozan and Omer Asik were acquired in a deal proposed by Van Excellence for Harrison Barnes, Bradley Beal, and Andrei Kirilenko

***Traded Rajon Rondo and J.R. Smith for Dwyane Wade and Marcin Gortat to Ming Dynasty. A week or so after the trade, Rondo would end up lost for the season due to knee injury.

****Monta Ellis was acquired in a deal proposed by South Beach Talents for Pau Gasol

I hate making trades and work really hard to make sure that I have an excellent draft to avoid making trades and not have to depend on anybody else to improve my team.  As you can see, only 4 players remain from my original team in Week 1.  Making trades was definitely an evil necessity this season.  I don't think I've ever made this many trades in this league before.  

Regardless, there are still holes on my team, mainly the two centers that are currently starting.  Asik has 26 points so far this week, but divisional foe, team Eyebrows, has at least two centers that can score 35+ each on any given week.  No use fretting about it as we continue to march toward the playoffs and will have to continue to keep an eye on the waiver wire.  

But it's worth noting the key players that have helped this team so far.  Tim Duncan is definitely one of them.  After getting mocked at the draft for selecting him and people criticizing his age and diminished skills and body, he still has managed to play at an elite level and has been the most pleasant surprise on my team.  Duncan has always been one of my favorite players and I'm happy to have him on my squad this year.  

I cannot mention Duncan without mentioning Splitter.  He got off to a very slow start, but I've always liked his game and kept tabs on him.  As soon as he had one big game and saw that he was available on waivers, I immediately snatched him up in early December and have not let go since, providing much needed insurance in case Duncan goes down for a long period of time.  

After bashing Lin last season, I took a deeper look at his game and his projections for this season and decided that he would make a great pick in the draft.  Did I want to select him with my 2nd round pick?  Absolutely not, but that is what happened.  He got off to a very slow start as his 3-point shooting was lagging and James Harden was taking over as the primary EVERYTHING on the Houston Rockets (ball-handler, scorer, shooter, perimeter threat, distributor, dribble-driver, etc.).  Eventually, Lin did find his role on the Rockets and has played a lot better of late. 

It was very sad to trade away Rondo, but he was struggling and not producing like in years past.  Even when he would get triple-doubles, he was still not playing to the elite-level status he had been playing in the last 2-3 seasons.  I tried trading him to the Talents for Steph Curry, but it was of no use.  So I'd settled on my 2nd option, D-Wade.  Threw in a hot-streaking J.R. Smith into the deal and even with Gortat not playing as well as I had thought, D-Wade has been playing like its 2006 all over again and combined with Durant, has been one of the best dynamic duos in our league.  Even though Rondo was no longer on my team, it was still sad to see him lost for the year.

Looking back at the David Lee deal, Lee's game has suffered since he was acquired.  From being a player that can explode for +45 points/week, Lee struggled to obtain 35+/week, even scoring a low of 28 on my team (week 15).  He has turned it back on the last 3 weeks, however, and if I can find one more, legit forward, I can always move Lee to center.  

DeMar DeRozan has had a nice year so far, but can be inconsistent sometimes.  But I like his athleticism (he can really fly!), versatility (qualifies at guard/forward), and his tenacity (he really believes that he can turn around the Toronto Raptors' franchise) make him a a must-have player, especially on this team.  

The key here is Stoudemire.  If he can co-exist with Carmelo Anthony and not just flourish whenever Anthony is out with injuries, that will easily put me over the top and solidify my frontcourt and I can even slide him at center.  Currently, he's playing well with Anthony missing, but has averaged 17 points/week in the last 3 weeks with Anthony in the lineup.

And finally, a quick shout-out to Kevin Durant.  It is amazing to see how much he has developed from his rookie year, to now.  I believe I acquired him during his rookie season and he was only averaging 25 points/week in our league.  My team was undergoing yet another hard, tough, losing season and I had to start thinking young and ditch my veterans.  That deal caused an uproar in the league because of all the players I gave up to get Durant, but I didn't care.  I liked this kid since I read about him in a magazine article and how he's constantly working hard and refining his game every day and his mom keeps him in check so he can focus on his game and not get trapped in the NBA lifestyle. To see him become one of the best scoring options in the league, under my team, just makes me beam with pride.  

Is this a sad lifestyle to have to vicariously live through the accomplishments of others?  Perhaps.  But at this point, it's all about BRAGGIN' RIGHTS!

More fantasy basketball content can be read here.

More NBA content is always available here. 

Feel free to share your fantasy basketball season with us.

ASK THE EXPERT: Pekovic or Bosh?

My resume...
(photo courtesy of Felipe M)

Felipe M

Recently I was asked by a fellow fantasy leaguer the following question:

"With both players playing 2 games next week, which one is the better option at center: Chris Bosh or Nikola Pekovic."

He also added that he's in a tough division where only less than 5 games separates his team from the team in last place.  Also, he added, he ponies up $5 for each loss.  Yikes!

It's a Head2Head, categories league: the team that wins the most categories in a weekly period gets credit for one win.

We looked at each player's schedule and noticed that Bosh will play at Oklahoma City Thunder and at home vs. the Portland Trail Blazers.

Conversely, Pekovic has a game at Cleveland Cavaliers and at home vs the Utah Jazz.  The following categories are used in the asker's league:

• FG%
• FT%
• 3PTs Made
• Points
• Rebounds
• Assists
• Steals
• Turnovers

After looking at each player's stats from the last 2 weeks, I noticed that both play similar minutes and have produced similar numbers with Bosh being a slightly better scorer and Pekovic being a better rebounder.  With all things being equal, the deciding factor on who gets the start next week boils down to match-ups.

Taking a look first at FG%, Chris Bosh will face off against the 3rd best defensive team in terms of "FG% Against."  Bosh gets an easier matchup with Portland and their 23rd best defensive team in that same category.  However, Pekovic's opponents have been a lot more generous.  Utah ranks 20th, but Cleveland owns the worst FG% Against in the NBA.  So based on those matchups, I give FG% to Pekovic.

FT% is about even with Pekovic getting more trips to the line than Bosh.  So again, it boils down to match-ups.  OKC and Portland are ranked 17th and 8th respectively in terms of "FT Attempts Against."  On the other hand, Pekovic will face two teams that hack a lot with Cleveland ranking 28th in giving up the most Free Throw Attempts, while Utah ranks 20th.  Both players shoot similar FT%, but advantage goes to Pekovic.

I've mentioned that Bosh is the slightly better scorer, but looking at match-ups again, Bosh will face the 15th ranked best defense in OKC and Portland ranks 20th.  Pekovic will face 18th ranked Utah and I'm sure is salivating at meeting Cleveland's 28th ranked defense.  Nevertheless, I still give a slight advantage to Bosh in the points' category.

Pekovic is already the better rebounder and has better match-ups next week.  He will meet Cleveland whom ranks 18th in rebound differential and while the Jazz ranked 14th.  Bosh will play at OKC and the 5th best team in rebound differential, but Portland ranks 16th.  Regardless, it's not enough to overtake Pekovic in the rebounds' category.

All the other categories are too evenly matched to consider, perhaps giving a very slight advantage to Pekovic for blocks. There's a higher chance that Bosh will have the green light to shoot and make a 3-pointer, but the probability is very minute.

If you look at intangibles, the Miami Heat, despite their thin roster, will probably cruise into the All-Star game and might continue to ease up on Bosh's minutes.  Bosh has recorded 35 minutes or less in 4 out of his last 6 games.  Pekovic, on the other hand, will probably continue to play with more consistency as the Minnesota Timberwolves are thin in their frontcourt and Pekovic has basically been their only option inside.  Pekovic has played in over 35 minutes in 3 out of his last 5 games.

So the consensus pick at center is pretty clear at this point: go with Nikola Pekovic!

Read more about the NBA, here. 

More specifically, read about fantasy basketball, here. 

Have a fantasy question?  Please drop us a line!  pathologicalhate@gmail.com

NBA 2012-13 Fantasy Preview: ON THE RISE

Felipe M

Finally, two weeks of the NBA are in the books, but it's never too late to "bookmark" some players who might become household names among casual NBA, basketball junkies, and fantasy basketball fans alike.  Here are the rising stars of the 2012-13 NBA season:

• Bismack Biyombo: Only his second season and he is still a raw product, but in a fantasy points league, blocks and rebounds coming from a center is adequate enough to get a virtual GM's attention.  Remember, Michael Jordan went out of his way to draft this player despite his inexperience so there's a good chance that Biyombo will get the opportunity to play more this season.
• Brandon Knight: I thought that Knight would be the better point guard than Kyrie Irving.  In his second season, he might end up being the best guard on his team at the very least. 
• JaVale McGee: A fresh start in Denver and playing under a coach with more prestige than Flip Saunders or whoever D.C. can sucker into coaching that sorry team can only do wonders for the very gifted, but incomprehensible and quizzical player.
• Omer Asik: From 3rd string big man with the Bulls to feature frontcourt player with the Rockets, Asik's stock can only go up.
• Dion Waiters: Don't like the fact that he was a bench player in college (remember Marvin Williams?), but should be a great running mate to Irving in Cleveland.
• Goran Dragic: Finally, after years of being the best backup point guard with the highest upside in the NBA, Dragic will no longer have to look behind his back to see who will steal his minutes.  It's finally his show to run in Phoenix and many fans can't help, but rejoice at this deserving player.
• Damian Lillard: The small-school product will continue to make a name for himself in the Pacific Northwest with the small-market, but crazy, basketball town of Portland.  He will be given every opportunity to prove himself in the NBA and show what he's made out of.
• Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: The rookie love continues with MKG.  His athleticism and stature should make him ideal as a perimeter defender.  That should equal more minutes and produce lots of padded stats for the former Kentucky Wildcat. 
• Carlos Boozer: After many Bulls' fans came with pitchforks and torches to rid themselves of the underachieving, but very expensive forward, Boozer enters this season as the Bulls' best offensive threat and main scorer.  That should at least quiet down the fans, media, coaches, front office, etc.
• Jeff Teague: His progress as an NBA point guard has been stalled with the presence of former teammate Joe Johnson, but this year, Teague will finally display his speed, quickness, handles, and athleticism and prove to the NBA world why he has been the best kept secret among NBA prospects. 
• Greivis Vasquez: He's the best ball-handler by default in New Orleans and last season, he proved that he can produce on the court as well as New Orleans deals with injuries to promising guards in Eric Gordon and Austin Rivers. 

And so it goes.  Can't wait to see if these predictions come to fruition or not, but I'm really excited to see how Dragic and Teague (and his brother Marquis) will develop.  And not a lot of rookies to get excited about, but the lottery picks are certainly must-watch (i.e. Thomas Robinson, Harrison Barnes, etc.).

To read Part I of this series on established players, click here.

Part II deals with declining players.

Part III looks at players who are at the crossroads of their careers.

NBA 2012-13 Fantasy Preview: THE CROSSROADS

Felipe M

There are other players who are not declining, but certainly in a certain crossroads where they have a chance to improve their stock for next season or make the "Decline" list as early as this season.  The choice is theirs. The list is as follows, but first, and oldie, but goodie:

• Rodney Stuckey--Rumors that management is losing patience with him and Brandon Knight ready to step up at either guard position, Stuckey better produce this season.
• Derrick Favors--He is still raw entering his third season, but he will get every opportunity in Utah to succeed.  He still needs to put up numbers this season.
• Jerryd Bayless--Entering his 5th season, he will be playing for his 4th team and he will once again be coming off the bench.  Not ready to label him a bust, but it's getting closer to that time.
• Michael Beasley--Fresh new start for the former #2 pick overall (remember those arguments between Derrick Rose and Beasley?  Yeah, they have seemed to disappear), if he can't put up numbers this year in Phoenix, then there's no hope for him.
• Zach Randolph--It's not as serious, but the Grizzlies know they can win without him and Marc Gasol proved to be a great big man in Randolph's absence and his play last season also marked Gasol as the Alpha Dog in Memphis.  How will Randolph play alongside another big man who's as talented as he is?
• O.J. Mayo--Once one of the best players in high school, he will now try his luck with another Western Conference team.  
• Ryan Anderson--Many have him as a bust coming into this season, but playing in New Orleans might not be the end of the world for the sharpshooter.  Still, he needs to show he can make his shots when the pressure is on him.
• J.J. Hickson--This is it for Hickson.  Put up or shut up.  Either he will be a legit, starting big man in the NBA or he will relegate himself to journeyman status--if he's lucky.
• Kris Humphries--Can't hate on this player too much, but the fact that the Nets' front office don't think too highly of him is a concern and might get traded to another team who might not give him the minutes he needs to score in the paint and grab rebounds. He's in the perfect situation in Brooklyn because teammate, Brook (Lyn) Lopez, is a terrible rebounder so Humphries has relished the role of the tough big man for the Nets who can grab boards, block shots, and score the ugly points inside. I don't think another team will give him that shot to succeed so he needs to play his heart out if he wants to stay with the Nets. 

We finish our series next as we take a look at players who are on the rise and ready to breakout this season.

NBA 2012-13 Fantasy Preview: THE BAD AND UGLY

Felipe M

(The following article will now deal with NBA players who are destined to see a dip in their production as we enter the upcoming NBA season. All projections are based on fantasy point, head-to-head leagues.  I apologize, once again, to any roto fans out there).

Unfortunately, what goes up, must come down in the real world, and it's no different in the NBA as some players' stock just has to come down for various reasons (age, new coach, new system, new teammates, new rules, etc).  The following is a list of players who will most certainly see a dip in their stock for this upcoming (and maybe beyond this) season:

• Jameer Nelson--Despite being the de facto best scoring option and playmaker in Orlando, projections show that he will not produce as much as most guards who are in similar situations (i.e. Ramon Sessions).  There's a reason why Dwight Howard did not want to play with him in Orlando. 
• Gerald Wallace--How "experts" can pick the New Jersey Nets as a title contender with Wallace in the starting lineup is perplexing to me. His career will continue to "crash."
• Andrew Bogut--After sustaining a number of injuries (most of them very serious) Bogut gets a fresh start at Golden State, but it's doubtful that he will post up the numbers he used to post up in Milwaukee. 
• Elton Brand--You can make the argument that his decline began a long time ago, but many fantasy owners still believe that a fresh start in Dallas where he will play in a more conventional half-court offense will revitalize his career.  My prognosis is that he cannot be relied on too heavily for this season.
• Anderson Varejao--Despite the fact that his production comes in the hustle categories, Varejao's time in Cleveland might be coming to an end as the Cavs might use him as trade bait for a contending team, which might mean a decrease in minutes/production.
• Chauncey Billups--Age and decline in production and play time play a factor in him making this list.
• Tyreke Evans--What should be the prime of his career, Evans is stuck in basketball limbo as he has refused to develop another dimension to his game. 
• Jose Calderon--Mr. Calderon, here's Kyle Lowry.
• Nene--No longer will benefit from the fast-paced game of the Denver Nuggets and was already unhappy being traded to D.C.
• Ray Felton--This is an obvious submission to this list as his timing is horrendous in returning to New York only to have coach Mike D'Antoni missing.
• Paul Pierce--He's still the best scoring option in Boston, but every year, he's relinquishing more and more control to Rondo.  
• Devin Harris--His days as a starting point guard in the NBA have come to an unexpecting end.
• Gerald Henderson--With the selection of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Henderson's days in Charlotte and as a somewhat fantasy relevent player might be nearing an end soon.
• Dorrell Wright--Was a fantasy darling when he played at Golden State, I don't expect him to do much in Philly despite the similar styles in play by both teams. 
• Caron Butler--Too much talent in Clipper-land and not enough basketballs to go around. Butler is in "Swingman Hell."

Next up, we will take a look at the NBA players who are in the crossroads of their careers coming into this season.

NBA 2012-13 Fantasy Preview: THE GOODS

Felipe M

(The following are just quick thoughts about the upcoming NBA season based on fantasy basketball projections.  That is not to say that this is a fantasy basketball preview as I like to discuss the subject matter interchangeably and effortlessly with what's "really" going on in the NBA.  Also worth noting, my opinions are based on fantasy point, head-to-head leagues.  Sorry Roto-fans).

• Bedrock Players--If you want to have a successful season, the following players are prime players to build your squad around for this upcoming season (and if you're in a keeper league, for seasons to come):
• The list gets pretty obvious with LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Love getting top billing, but one player does not make a team (real or fantasy). Rounding out the top 12 is as follows:
• Josh Smith
• Deron Williams
• Rajon Rondo
• John Wall
• Russell Westbrook
• Carmelo Anthony
• Blake Griffin
• As mentioned having great support for your superstar player is key in determining whether your team will contend or struggle for this season.  The following players are borderline "franchise" players/2nd bananas on any fantasy team:
• Kobe Bryant--he's due for a dip in production, but Kobe is still Kobe and determination alone makes him a force to be reckoned with.
• Pau Gasol--In most leagues, he qualifies at both forward (power) and center and that versatility makes him a coveted player.
• Jeremy Lin--yes, Linsanity is alive and well in Houston.  You can't deny the great opportunity that has presented itself for the polarizing guard.
• LaMarcus Aldridge--Same peripherals as Gasol. 
• Kyrie Irving--If he keeps producing like he's projected to, he is a prime keeper for years to come and is ready to rack up the points this year as well. 
• Al Jefferson--Despite not being good at any particular thing, he can rack up the stats and makes a great complement player for any fantasy team.
• Dirk Nowitzki--The Godfather of the perimeter big men, he can still produce in Dallas.
• Other top players come with questions and issues (both on and off the court):
• Andrew Bynum--Arguably, the best offensive player at the center position, also comes with lots of baggage and injury concerns.  If he can overcome both issues, he can be a scoring machine. 
• DeMarcus Cousins--Quickly becoming this generation's version of Rasheed Wallace, if he can control his anger and stop with the bad attitude, his NBA stock can absolutely sky-rocket into galactic proportions.  He's athletic, highly talented, and a machine in the middle. 
• Dwyane Wade--From fantasy point superstar to descending into 2nd banana status, Wade is quickly aging.  He's a solid pick for this season, but in keeper leagues, you might want to trade him now and save yourself the headache for next season.
• Stephen Curry and Eric Gordon--Great shooters and scorers, but seem to always be hurt and have reputations of being fragile.
• Tony Parker and Tim Duncan--Highly talented players, but their team's priority is not for them to pad their stats, but to be ready for the playoffs and that hinders their production.
• Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis--As former owner of both of these players, they certainly can leave you frustrated, but when they get on fire, they're almost unstoppable.
• Other players worth mentioning:
• Ty Lawson and Jeff Teague-- Both quick point guards who can explode around the basket, but higher upside goes to Lawson
• Marc Gasol--Skill big man like his brother Pau, but not as explosive. 
• David Lee--Some "experts" think he's due for a drop-off, but somebody needs to get rebounds and points in the paint for Golden State.
• Rudy Gay--Memphis' best perimeter player.
• Brook Lopez--According to Shaq O'neal, he's the best big, true center in the NBA... on some days.
• Paul Millsap, Greg Monroe, and Joakim Noah--Solid big men who are very consistent safe to have on any roster: you know exactly what you're getting from all of these players.
• Andre Iguodala--Not the franchise player that he was supposed to be, but is playing for the right team in Denver. 
• Al Horford and Chris Bosh--Highly-skilled players who can leave many owners frustrated because they seem to always be playing out of position, but can rack up the points and rebounds. 

And that is a quick summary of my top 40 players coming into this NBA season. 

Up next, we take a look at players who are due for a downfall this upcoming NBA season.