HIRED ARMS: Like a Phoenix Ignition

Felipe M

We previously talked about struggling pitchers that are worth monitoring as they may still turn their seasons around. 

We now take a look at the pitchers that have skyrocketed up the waiver wire charts.  The following pitchers are owned in less than 50% of CBS fantasy baseball leagues and all saw at least a 5% increase in ownership in the last week.

Besides evaluating these pitchers, we try to figure out if their recent hype is warranted or overblown.

Patrick Corbin--Arizona Diamondbacks--42%: Corbin was a pitcher I was excited about in the spring as he pitched marvelously, en route to securing the final rotation spot in Arizona.  He's pitched well enough to win and has yet to give up a homerun, but his 1.25 WHIP and his six strikeouts in 12 innings pitched makes me think that his 2-0 win-loss record is more fluke than skill.  Corbin is more of a groundball pitcher, telling me he needs a lot of contact from opposing hitters (and a lot of luck) to be an effective pitcher.  However, his groundout-to-flyout ratio is only 1.3 so far.  His H/9 of 8.25 shows that he's been more lucky than good this season.  Good short-term pitcher to have while he's hot, but I would cut bait at the first sign of struggle.  Then again, I wouldn't have him on my team to begin with.  

Andrew Bailey--Boston Red Sox--41%: So apparently, Boston needs a new closer.  Current closer Joel Hanrahan is on the DL and Bailey should be the team's primary closer in his absence.  He did blow a save on Monday, but has pitched pretty well this season, posting a K/9 of 15.28.  Bailey has accumulated 81 saves in his career, so he has the experience.  Go pick him up now!

Carlos Villanueva--Chicago Cubs--32%: We've mentioned before how Villanueva can be a sneaky pitcher to slot into your rotation.  Well, he's pitched well enough to be 2-0 this season, but lack of run support has been his doom.  The strikeouts aren't as high as I'd like, but all other stats are tantalizing owners to pick him up immediately.  The downside to him is that his role with the Cubs seems to be temporary and he is a flyball pitcher that struggled with keeping the ball in the park last season.  However, he's pitched well enough to warrant a roster spot on fantasy teams and is worth keeping around until the Cubs say otherwise.

Nick Tepesch--Texas Rangers--27%: He's had mixed results in his two starts this season, but has been a pleasant surprise in terms of K/BB.  Unfortunately, he's been tagged with a base-hit per inning, thus far.  However, the silver lining is that his groundout/flyout ratio is near 4:1.  As long as he can induce plenty of groundballs, doesn't hurt himself with walks, and continues to keep up his strikeout rate, he should be fine.  

Chris Capuano--Los Angeles Dodgers--26%: Summoned from the bullpen to take over for Zack Greinke, who is out with a collarbone injury, Capuano is not a bad selection if you're in desperate need for a starting pitcher.  He had a decent 2012 and has pitched pretty well in relief this season.  Last year, he had a K/BB of 3/1.  Age, a short leash (Ted Lilly waits in the bullpen in the event that Capuano struggles), and limited work are the negatives, but in the interim, he's a solid choice to add to your roster.  

Bartolo Colon--Oakland A's--19%: He's pitched pretty well since coming back from PED suspension.  He hasn't been dominant, but has definitely relied on veteran moxie.  Strikeout totals are low and he's giving up a lot of base-hits, but has yet to allow a walk and that kind of control is always a major advantage.  He's recorded more flyouts than groundouts and playing in Oakland, he can afford to have hitters put the ball in the air, although he's already given up two homeruns this season.  Colon is not my first choice to plug into my pitching staff, but as a last resort option, you could do a lot worse.  However, age and a tough, upcoming schedule--is scheduled to pitch against Budd Norris and Jon Lester--would make me not want to pick him up.

John Lannan--Philadelphia Phillies--11%: As mentioned before, I'm the biggest "Lannan-hater" out there.  He is the epitome of a pitcher I refuse to have on my team.  However, to his credit, he's pitched well enough to win both of his starts this season as he's only given up one walk and has only allowed 8 hits, but has been a victim of poor run-support.  The low strikeouts is typical of Lannan, but his finesse style has been on full display early on as he holds a 3:1, groundout:flyout ratio.  The negative on Lannan: he's John Lannan.  His 2013 start just reeks of fluky luck and it seems that he's performance is a product of an easy schedule (facing the Royals in his first start and then the Marlins in his second start).  His next couple of starts should prove to be a bit more challenging as he'll pitch against the Reds and against the Pirates with A.J. Burnett scheduled to make the start opposite Lannan. 

So that's a quick look at a few pitchers that have filled the fantasy baseball world with a lot of buzz recently.  A lot of these guys are short-term solutions, but sometimes going with the hot hand is the best choice.  

More MLB content is available here.  

MAKING THE PITCH: Chicago Cubs

Will the Cubs win a lot more games in 2013?
(photo courtesy of Sharon P. Mancia)

Felipe M

We take a look at the projected starting rotations and closer situations of every MLB team.  Of course, this will come from a fantasy perspective.  All cited stats are based on 2013 projections.  

Check out the Colorado Rockies pitching staff, here. 

This is a bit personal, however.  As you may or may not know, the Chicago Cubs are my team (along with the Chicago White Sox).  But the bitter apathy and comical season that was the 2012 Cubs had one silver lining: at least the starting pitching was good enough to make them somewhat respectable.  This season, however, trying to figure out this team has been nothing but a major headache.  And I'm not even talking about their closer situation!  Not because they're a lot worse than last year; it's because they have so many potential starters, it's difficult to figure out who's a legit starter, and who will only be holding down the fort until Matt Garza and Scott Baker come back.  The Cubs had an impressive offseason picking up a lot of pitchers.  But from a fantasy standpoint, it's very frustrating to get an accurate gauge on these guys.  

Yesterday, the Cubs outlined their pitching rotation for the start of the season, but their forecast is still not any clearer than it was on Wednesday.  Therefore, I'm only taking a close look at the 3 pitchers who will be there, for certain, on the regular rotation in 2013.

PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

1. Jeff Samardzija
• Good: 8.82 K/9: need we say more?  He also has overpowering stuff that helps limit the base-hits (H/9 of 7.98).  
• Bad: Has a little Kerry Wood in him; he won't give up many hits, but he'll give up plenty of walks (BB/9 3.78).  That brings his WHIP projection to 1.31.  Ouch!
2. Matt Garza
• Good: 8.43 K/9 and an approximate K/BB of 3/1 make him a legit pitcher in any format.
• Bad: Injuries and lack of run support have haunted him, especially since becoming a Cub.  1.13 HR/9 is nothing to fret about, but on those days that the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field, might prove to be disastrous.  Matter of fact, Garza has a history of giving up a lot of homeruns and he's a career flyball pitcher.  However, based on his Groundouts/Flyouts ratio as a Cub, suggest that he is improving on forcing more groundouts than flyballs.
3. Edwin Jackson
• Good: One of the nastiest pitchers out there, Jackson is supposed to sport a K/9 of 7.73.  And after having a reputation of being a wild pitcher, he is projected to have a BB/9 of 2.81.  He won't hurt himself with the longball either (HR/9 of 0.92).
• Bad: 1.29 WHIP is a bit high.  Despite the improvements in the last 3 seasons, Jackson can still come off as a bit unpredictable as a starting pitcher.  

CLOSERs

1. Carlos Marmol
• Good: 12.95 K/9 and 0.68 HR/9 is what makes him a good closer.  He's almost unhittable (H/9 of 6.95. Craig Kimbrel is better at 6.49).
• Bad: Unfortunately, Marmol has a tough time controlling his walks (BB/9 of 6.68).  He seems to have trouble with command of his slider as batters are not biting on it like they were before.  The walks raise his WHIP to an alarming 1.52.  Currently, the Cubs are desperately trying to deal him.
2. Kyuji Fujikawa
• Good: He has enough experience at the role as he's racked up plenty of saves back in Japan.  Baseball America ranks him as the team's #9 prospect.  
• Bad: Tough to gauge if and how a pitcher from another league will be able to streamline success to the Majors.  His projections seem to project him as a low-level, second-tier closer.  The Cubs seem to like him enough for the 9th inning job as he will no doubt move up to that role as soon as they deal Marmol.

FANTASY ADVICE

The other pitchers involved in this claustrophobia-like starting rotation are Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva, and Travis Wood.  I hate Feldman so I'm not even going to bother with him.  I've always liked Wood, but can be very inconsistent at times.  

The intriguing guy of the group is Villanueva.  In 2010, he was exclusively coming out of the bullpen for the Milwaukee Brewers, but last season with the Toronto Blue Jays, he posted impressive numbers as both a reliever and a starter.  He posted impressive strikeout totals and an adequate WHIP.  Projections from various publications show that he's expected to continue with the impressive strikeout rates, but WHIP is ranged between 1.25 and 1.45.  Nevertheless, if he can control the walks and the H/9 numbers, he can become a deep sleeper for at least the first month of the season.

Scott Baker is a flyball pitcher who has a history of giving up a lot of homeruns.  However, he is known to do a great job of controlling his walks and can post respectable strikeout totals (career K/9 of 7.23).  If he can come back without any issues from Tommy John surgery, he can prove to be a useful pitcher in 2013.

The Cubs did a good job acquiring pitchers that can post good strikeout totals, but they all come with baggage: control, injuries, spells of inconsistencies, lack of run support etc.  Nevertheless, I would be comfortable drafting any of these pitchers to fill in the middle of my rotation, but I wouldn't reach to put any of these guys at my top 3 slots.  

Obviously, the closer situation becomes more clear as soon as they find someone willing to deal with Marmol.  I would still take a wait-and-see approach on Fujikawa, though.

More MLB content is available here.