MARDI GRAS MADNESS: South Jersey Strong Arms

Felipe M

We continue on our reviews for our fantasy baseball league, Mardi Gras Madness.  Please take some time to read about the Houston Steelers. 

Last, but definitely not least is our defending champion and a big time Phillies' fan--and Dallas Cowboys' fan.  What?

CENTRAL DIVISION--So. Jersey Strong Arms (it must be a Jersey thang)

BATTING LINEUP

Like: You can tell this guy is a Phillies’ fan: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins are starting on the team’s infield.  Whether they can take it back to 2008 is another question, but lucky for them, they won’t be doing it on their own as Buster Posey, Andrew McCutchen and Yoenis Cespedes can provide plenty of offense as well.  

2013 Hitting Projections
Player	Team	Pos	BB/K	AB/K	AB/HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB
Yoenis Cespedes	Oakland	LF/CF	0.45	5.05	22.03	0.345	0.482	0.827	16
Buster Posey	San Francisco	C/1B	0.70	5.77	23.61	0.390	0.510	0.900	2
Andrew McCutchen	Pittsburgh	CF	0.64	4.77	22.53	0.380	0.500	0.880	23
Ben Revere	Philadelphia	CF/RF	0.58	10.08	571.33	0.329	0.334	0.663	42
Michael Morse	Seattle	LF/RF	0.24	4.00	21.42	0.326	0.468	0.794	1
Will Middlebrooks	Boston	3B	0.17	3.67	20.80	0.304	0.463	0.767	8

Dislike: I might be too harsh on Will Middlebrooks, but even though he provided a spark for teams last year and showed off his power, he still had plenty of holes in his swing and terrible approach at the plate.  He needs to improve on that aspect of this game is this team expects to repeat as Champions.  And as a Michael Morse owner last season, I understand he was hurt, but that still doesn’t excuse his hacking style at the plate.  And Ben Revere should not be a DH in a fantasy lineup. 

Look Out For: This team has both Billy Hamilton and Jurickson Profar on the same club.  I’m not even sure if both players will be called up this season, but certainly a very interesting strategy to have two players playing in the same position.  Then again, the Reds have been talking about moving Hamilton to the OF and the Rangers have played with the idea of moving their veteran infielders move around just so they can make room for Profar.

Bench: Revere and Carlos Gomez will probably, but questionably be alternating the DH spot.  Gomez has good counting stats, but a disastrous approach at the plate.  Chase Headley can probably become the permanent DH/3B when he gets back from injury.

PITCHING

Like: The Philly theme continues with Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee anchoring the pitching staff.  In support of these two are mixes of young and veteran pitchers with more question marks to their game than anything.  So I will list the ones that have a better chance of succeeding here (not to guarantee that they will, but given the options, I’m speaking in relative terms): Alex Cobb is supposed to bust out this season and was impressive in the spring, especially when you talk about his K/9; Alexi Ogando is a promising pitcher with good, projected numbers.  However, he did struggle this spring, but was able to post impressive strikeout totals; Marco Estrada pitched pretty well in the spring and his projections show that he might be in line for a big year.

2013 Pitching Projections
Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/9
Alexi Ogando	Texas	3.23	8.14	2.52	8.14	1.18	1.09
Alex Cobb	Tampa	2.13	6.80	3.19	8.48	1.30	0.78
Marco Estrada	Milwaukee	3.55	8.85	2.49	8.51	1.22	1.22

Dislike: There’s a lot of pitchers I don’t like on this team, but the worst of the bunch is Edinson Volquez.  Volquez had a bad spring and he still continues to give up too many walks (a problem he still has since his days with the Reds.  I wrote about this issue when reviewing the Padres’ pitching staff).  Another Opening Day starter I don’t like is Bud Norris who not only is supposed to be on a bad team that may not provide the run support he needs, he also has issues with walks and is projected to have a terrible WHIP.  To Norris’ credit, he did get the win for the Astros on Sunday night.    Jorge de la Rosa is a 32 year-old recovering from Tommy John surgery.  He shouldn’t be on anybody’s team.  Kyle Kendrick is another pitcher who should have been left on waivers as well. 

Bullpen: Amazingly enough, this team has no closers on the squad.

Look Out For: James McDonald seems to slowly, but surely be climbing up the pitchers’ list and distance himself from the Volquezes and Norrises of the world.  He can provide good strikeout numbers and if he cuts back on the walks, he might provide much needed production on this team.  Shaun Marcum is injured once again, but when he’s healthy, he can be productive.  Might be the pitcher to add some quality depth on this team.  Speaking of injury, Chad Billingsley is on the club as well and beginning the year on the DL.  He’s done a good job cutting back on the walks and is actually better off as a back of the rotation guy than as an integral part of any pitching staff (like he was projected to be when he was coming up with the Dodgers).

PREDICTION: Despite having all of these pitchers on the team, they really don’t have much depth.  Remember, quantity does not necessarily mean quality.  They have the potential to surprise people by potentially having a great 5-man combo in their pitching staff, but which of these other quizzical pitchers will step up and have a breakthrough season?  They are also a big bat away from having a complete lineup.  If they can’t make a trade to improve their offense, then they’ll have to depend on a few hitters who have very limited skills at the plate.  Injured 3B Headley might be that player, but he too comes with plenty of issues as well.  Too many ifs and question marks on this team to project them as a playoff team, therefore another title seems to be out of reach.  

Check out the rest of the Mardi Gras Madness teams.

More fantasy baseball is available here. 

MAKING THE PITCH: Texas Rangers

Nolan Ryan and the Rangers lost a few big bats, but their pitching stays
pretty much intact for 2013.
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos)

Felipe M

We take a look at the projected starting rotations and closer situations of every MLB team.  Of course, this will come from a fantasy perspective.  All cited stats are based on 2013 projections.  

To see our preview of the Toronto Blue Jays, click here. 

Now the Texas Rangers are up on stage.  

PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

1. Matt Harrison
• Good: It was announced yesterday that Harrison will be the Rangers' opening day starter for 2013.  He won 18 games last season and has pitched very well this spring.  
• Bad: His projected numbers show that Harrison is anything, but an "ace" for any pitching staff.  More of a pitch-to-contact pitcher, K/BB of 2.13 not only shows a laughable strikeout total (K/9 of 5.86 similar to Erasmo Ramirez's), but possible control problems.  WHIP of 1.31 (also identical to Ramirez and A.J. Burnett) is further proof that he should not be considered an elite pitcher.  Currently ranked between Jason Vargas and Kyle Kendrick; both are bottom of the rotation starters for their respective teams.
2. Yu Darvish
• Good: The "real" ace of the staff, Darvish came through with a strong finish to 2012.  He's also had a dominant spring.  K/9 of 9.70, WHIP of 1.15 and a 3:1 K/BB just screams "ACE!"
• Bad: It remains to be seen if Darvish can pitch a full season of cosistent baseball. BB/9 of 3.04 is a slight concern, but not enough to sound the alarm on the Japanese hurler.  
3. Derek Holland
• Good: K/9 of 7.66 is more than respectable (similar to Jarrod Parker's K/9).  
• Bad: Although he won't give up too many walks, he can be hittable.  WHIP of 1.26 puts him behin pitchers like Tim Hudson and Wade Miley.
4. Alexi Ogando
• Good: Has had a pretty decent spring, more good than bad. 8.14 K/9 makes him an intriguing pitcher. 
• Bad: Really hard to figure out if his projected numbers are a product of his relief role from last season or if publications really believe that he can streamline those numbers as a starter.  Also will be pitching in his first full season as a starter since 2011 so injuries and fatigue will be a concern throughout the year.

CLOSER

1. Joe Nathan
• Good: 10.29 K/9 along with a 4.80 K/BB makes him a near-elite closer.
• Bad: Age and a terrible spring might hurt his stock.  

FANTASY ADVICE

Player	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/A
Yu Darvish	3.19	9.70	3.04	7.35	1.15	0.83
Alexi Ogando	3.23	8.14	2.52	8.14	1.18	1.09
Derek Holland	2.73	7.66	2.81	8.51	1.26	1.07
Matt Harrison	2.13	5.86	2.76	9.00	1.31	0.90

So based on these stats, which of these players should be the ace of the staff?  I didn't like Harrison last season, and I especially don't like him now, but if you think he can repeat his 18-win performance from last year, by all means.  I've never liked Holland either, but he can prove to be an asset in 2013.  

Ogando is the most interesting pitcher listed.  As mentioned, his numbers might be a by-product of his success as a reliever and it's hard to predict if those numbers will translate as a starter.  His numbers alone make him a 2nd-tier starter.  But his 2011 stats might be the best indicator as to what we can expect in 2013: K/9 below 7; K/BB of 2.93.  He also managed a WHIP of 1.14 that year as well so his 2013 projected WHIP might indeed be accurate.  Nevertheless, fatigue might play a big role this season and makes him somewhat of a risk.  He's still worth the risk if he can pitch close to those projections in the 1st half of the season.  

Joe Nathan is confident that his struggles in the spring should not be a concern.  In the event that his bad spring follows him in April and May, Jason Frasor might take over 9th inning duties for him. 

Neftali Feliz is still recovering from Tommy John Surgery.  He's not expected back until early August and that's very optimistic thinking.

The only pitcher worth reaching to anchor your #1 or #2 spot is Yu Darvish.  The numbers speak for themselves and are on par with his "real life" capabilities.  It's a crime that he will not be pitching on Opening Day, but so it goes.  

MLB content can be reached here.