NBA LESSONS: v2.3

ICYMI... TOGETHER is BIG! Check out our latest #BIG spot, starring @justryod3 & Monta Ellis of the @bucks! #Milwaukee youtu.be/_HaBya2k2vc
— NBA (@NBA) February 24, 2013

Dan P

• TWO’S A COMPANY, THREE’S A—WHOOPS, WRONG TV SHOW: What to do with Milwaukee’s now overcrowded backcourt.

The Milwaukee Bucks, to their credit were the talk of the NBA trade deadline and not only were they the closest to landing veteran forward Josh Smith, but they did pull off a trade for coveted guard J.J. Redick.  Much to my chagrin, they accomplished this without giving up a draft pick and also stole little-known center, Gustavo Ayon: a player who has excelled in small minutes with the New Orleans Hornets and Orlando Magic, previously.  The addition of Redick will bring reliable 3-point shooting and, surprisingly, some size at the guard position as the existing backcourt of Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings are both speedy, yet smaller than Redick. 

One cannot even begin to comprehend how much of an improvement Redick is at 3-point shooting than Monta Ellis.  The aforementioned, speedy guard is shooting a capricious 22.7% (42 of 185) from downtown and, yes, that’s not a misprint.  It doesn’t take a math genius to know that Ellis averages worse than 1 for 4 from 3-point land, in every game this season.  No wonder Scott Skiles lost his marbles and wanted out of Milwaukee!  Brandon Jennings, who also shoots a meager 40% from the field, like Ellis, at least connects from downtown at a clip of 37% which is slightly above league average.  Don’t get me wrong, I find Monta Ellis intriguing but he strikes me as the guy that everyone wants on their team but isn’t sure how he fits into a system that isn’t built solely around him (Tyreke Evans fits that description too). 

Here’s the last 5 years of Bucks’ regular season record:  

Bucks Regular Season Records

YEAR	W	L	PCT
2012-13	26	28	.481
*2011-12	31	35	.470
2010-11	35	47	.427
2009-10	46	36	.561
2008-09	34	48	.415

Other than the almost .500 finish in a shortened-season last year, they have only topped 40 wins once in the last five years and counting this year’s as well, if their record holds at the same rate.  Somehow, Coach Jim Boylan will have to balance his three guards to maximize their potential, keep Redick’s minutes up (he was averaging 30 in Orlando), and find out which two guards the Bucks’ brass will have to keep for next year.  Redick and Jennings current contracts will end after this year and Monta has one more year going into 2014.  One strategy would be to ultimately decide that Jennings and Redick are the future and make a more balanced combination than any of the two with Ellis (Kind of like Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry?—Ed).  I tend to like this idea because there seems to be redundancy skill wise between Ellis and Jennings and furthermore, Monta’s expiring contract in 2014 of $11 million is very attractive to any team who can afford it.  Only time will tell but I can hardly see a future where the Bucks keep all three.      

• THE DISASTER OTHERWISE KNOWN AS ANDREW BYNUM

For as bad as Dwight Howard has looked this year, the L.A. Lakers still crushed that deal.  Ok fine, he’s been “bad” Dwight Howard compared to Dwight Howard “standards” (still averages 16.5pts/12reb/2.5blks).  But at least we still have something to compare against his more dominant years and we can still find reason to argue where he will play next year.  The operative word is where, not if or when. 

Andrew Bynum, on the other hand, is a mystery as to when he will play this year or if teams think he’s worth the trouble anymore.  His best, on-the-court skill these days is finding those ridiculous suits for 7-foot centers and, of course, growing an immaculate afro.  Seriously, do a quick search on this topic.  

Let’s look at the raw numbers: Andrew Bynum was a Laker for 7 years and played in 392 out of 554 possible games to a tune of just under 71%.  Add in his 0/54 this season with the Philadelphia 76ers and this yields  392/608, or 64% of all possible games he could have participated.  That is some seriously scary stuff for a guy who doesn’t turn 26 until October 27^th of this year.  I just don't see Bynum playing in that many games this year and if I were his agent, I would advise against him playing.  The worst thing Bynum could do is either come back too early and re-injure his knees or come back and not be all that productive trying to re- acclimate himself in a hostile, environment that is the Philadelphia, sports scene.  Might as well keep teams dreaming of what he can be when he's healthy and move on from a tainted situation.  

• AMAZING RECORD; ALOOF RECEPTION: The San Antonio Spurs

I was recently asked a question that has come up repeatedly over the years: why do the San Antonio Spurs get so little attention and why are they considered "boring"?  

At first I resisted the offer to resort to that question because every true basketball junkie knows about this team and has become accustomed to.  The Spurs are great, they have been great for a long time, and they have one of the most underrated coaches ever in Gregg Popovich.  They have won enough recent titles so I don't feel obligated to feel sorry for them.  So I put it to the side and left it alone trying to concentrate on All-Star weekend.  

Upon resuming the regular season I wanted to take a glance at the standings and see the general landscape of how the playoff schedule might shake out.  And that's when it happened and I began to track the next week or so.  The Spurs as of February 26th are sitting at 45-13.  How is this possible?  Even for Spurs’ standards, that’s quite an impressive record for their aging “Big Three.”  So it must be the defense, right?  Well, yes, they are the 9th stingiest defense in the league giving up 95.8 points per game.  However, they’re really doing it on the offensive end as well, producing 104.3 points per game the (4th) best in the league!  The Spurs (+8.4) trail only the Thunder (+9.1) in point differential and, yes, that means they are ahead of the vaunted Miami Heat (+7.1).  

In month of February so far, Tony Parker leads @nba in pts in the paint/gm (14.0ppg). Very impressive stuff from the @spurs PG
— NBA.com/Stats (@nbastats) February 26, 2013

It is simply incredible given Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker are 36, 35, and 30 years-old, respectively.  There's one shining rank statistically that may shed some light: the Spurs rank #1 in assists in the NBA at 25 per game (Tony Parker is the engine and Pop knows it!-Ed).  

So let’s take a look at the Spurs 5-man units and see what their best lineups are:

Top Five-Man Floor Units

#	Unit	Min	Off	Def	+/-	W	L	Win%
1	Parker-Green-Leonard-Splitter-Duncan	222.8	1.08	0.85	+104	15	2	88.2
2	Parker-Green-Leonard-Diaw-Duncan	139.8	1.10	0.98	+32	9	7	56.2
3	Parker-Green-Leonard-Diaw-Splitter	121.5	1.14	0.99	+32	6	5	54.5
4	Parker-Neal-Green-Blair-Duncan	105.0	1.01	1.07	-13	4	6	40.0

What we can see in the top-three, 5-man units is the Spurs really have their main rotation rounded out and that on paper, the types of players they put out on the floor seem to set up a really nice amount of spacing.  For the record, I stopped after four units since these are the only four units that have play at least 100 minutes together.  Parker creates, Danny Green hangs out at the wings, Kawhi Leonard roams looking to set picks and rebound, Duncan has his butt on the blocks, and Tiago Splitter can play high and low for screens and post ups.  It's a really nice fit and even when they sit either Duncan or Splitter, they have Boris Diaw who has always been a big body who can pass and facilitate on offense.  One thing that seems impossible is that Manu Ginobli isn't on any of these lists, but at 23 minutes per game, he seems to really be playing the super 6th man so probably not surprising.  

So are the Spurs boring?  Well that's just a matter of opinion, but to me it's just great basketball. 

More NBA content is available here. 

NBA LESSONS: v2.2

Dan P

When does pleasure outweigh business in sports?

Immediately after I wrote a piece detailing a “Kevin Garnett to the L.A. Clippers” deal, I was made to look foolish by the recent twist in Danny Ainge's thought process as now it looks like KG is staying put with Paul Pierce for the remainder of their NBA tenure.  

I thought it was impossible to conceive how a team would pass up trade value on a soon to be 37 year-old (in May) with 3 years left on a deal that will pay him close to $35 million.  That the fact that KG had helped the Boston Celtics to a title in 2008 was already in the rear-view mirror.  And not to mention even the Suns dealt Steve Nash to their long-time nemesis, L.A. Lakers, simply because they couldn't pass up three, first rounds picks.  Seriously, owner Robert Sarver LOVED Steve Nash and HATES the Lakers.  

So why the change of heart by Ainge?  Why the nostalgia for a player that wasn't drafted by the team and has still spent more years playing for the Minnesota T’Wolves (12) than the Celtics (6).  Much ink was spilled before the start of the season about how Rajon Rondo wanted to make the Celtics his team; that it was time to grab the reins and ease the burden of its aging stars.  But Ainge's refusal to deal Garnett for youth, undercuts that notion and brings back something else nostalgic: pride for greatness and love of the game.  Perhaps it has something to do with the fact Ainge played in the NBA or maybe the spirit and energy of KG is too special to let leave the locker room for good.  

Either way, it helped remind this hack writer that sometimes making a deal for the sake of dealing isn't always the best.  I remember feeling the same way about Michael Jordan, and even now I would love to see if MJ, at age 50, could come back just to prove he still has it (He’s at least good enough to beat Michael Kidd-Gilchrist—Ed). It's irrational for the Celtics to pass up any opportunity and yet it never felt more right.

Re-Occurring DwightMare

I'm really sick of Dwight Howard (I second that motion. Head coach, Gregg Popovich would be counted as the third vote.—Ed).  I'm tired of his clean-cut, “smile first” persona that, by now, real NBA fans know is a load of $#*&.  

First let me get something off my chest: I do believe Howard about the health of his back and that he is nowhere close to 100% (He looks “smaller” than he did last year with Orlando. Then again, it could be the hideous purple and yellow that the Lakers wear that make him seem “smaller,” less dominant, this season—Ed).  

Secondly, I do believe playing with Kobe Bryant takes a certain kind of mental toughness and that at times, Kobe has raked Dwight over the coals unfairly (You can read a bit about that, here—Ed).  Finally, I do believe Dwight is salvageable and is the future of the Lakers and they would be wise to keep him, no matter what.  

That being said, he is a bonehead of the highest caliber and is really ruining his best years with his lackadaisical behavior and refusal to understand how he fits into another team's system.  For as much as he and Stan Van Gundy didn't like each other, Stan built a system solely around Dwight. One center down low and four perimeter shooters to take 3's on kick-outs from the post (Shaq 2.0?—Ed).  Dwight flourished under this system and became the league's best center, yet other than one NBA Finals appearance (2009), always came up short.  He got what he wanted in a trade to LA (Although, according to most “experts,” Howard has wanted to really play for the Brooklyn Nets all along—Ed) and despite his animosity towards SVG, he still wants to play like his days in Orlando.  

NEWS FLASH, Dwight!  That isn't going to happen in the Kobe/Mike D'Antoni tenure so get used to it!  

(Dan P actually believes that Pau Gasol is the better first, “big-man” option over Howard.  Read his analysis, here—Ed)

The Lakers are the Lakers so they will weasel themselves out of this mess, but with the oldest backcourt in the NBA (Nash/Kobe) and a ton of money to cut from payroll in fear of the looming luxury tax increase, it looks bleak for the Lakers to really add the pieces Dwight thinks he covets.  

The Return(?) of Derrick Rose

I know I write too much about the Chicago Bulls (You can never write too much about the Bulls—Ed), but this is the league's all-time, youngest MVP and genuine NBA superstar, so it deserves another look.  

The hot topic surrounding Derrick Rose is not if, but when will he come back to playing NBA games.  He made it clear to reporters last week that he will not come back until he feels completely healthy and is 110%.  To this day, I still don't know what that cliche actually means regarding athletic prowess but hey, it always looks good in print.  

Should Derrick Rose miss the whole season?  Unfortunately, there is no right answer, but I am inclined to have a theory.  I've written previously that the Bulls will do anything (short of transforming themselves into the Sacramento Kings—Ed) to avoid this year's luxury tax, which currently they would have to pay if they stood pat.  This, of course, is the horrible idea of trading Carlos Boozer for Andrea Bargnani, which doesn't even make sense financially, let alone in basketball terms.  

What if Derrick Rose returning this season would embolden management to scrap this idea of selling?  I could only think of Rose's ACL this whole time and what it would mean if he came back too soon: a fear I still have.  I know there will be rust in limited minutes, but if he came back looking like his old self, it would rev Chicago into overdrive (Think Ricky Rubio, Dirk Nowitzki and John Wall, but with a better team—Ed) and perhaps be enough to convince management to stay aggressive.  This team has looked much better than I thought was possible without Rose and the East is still a wasteland (sans the Miami Heat) of mediocre rosters (And even the Heat are full of mediocrity outside their “Big 3”—Ed).  

I would love to see the Bulls trim some fat off their salary cap, but I wish it would be anybody but Bargnani.  I would have liked to see them acquire J.J. Redick: A knockdown, three-point shooter.  In 31 minutes per game Redick is posting 45/39/89 shooting percentages for a really bad Orlando team.  At 28 years old and on the final year of his deal that pays him $6.1 million, he may be affordable.  Unfortunately, a Bulls’ division rival has beaten them to the punch:

Atlanta has pulled out of talks with Milwaukee for Josh Smith, two sources say. Bucks have agreed to acquire J.J. Redick from Orlando.
— Ken Berger (@KBergCBS) February 21, 2013

Rats!  I'm looking foolish, once again! 

To read more NBA, click here.