BRAGGING RIGHTS 2013: Mediocre Season in the Works

Felipe M

It's been awhile since I wrote an update on my fantasy baseball team, the Black Hole Army.  I already explained the rules of the league at the beginning of the year, but quickly recapitulate, it's a Head2Head, Fantasy Point, Weekly Keeper League.  The name of the league is Mardi Gras Madness.

After getting off to a blazing start, winning 4 out of the first 5 games of the season, I've dropped 3 out of the last 4 games.  This has me with a 5-4 record although I'm very fortunate that I still have a winning record considering I own the 2nd to last worst record in terms of fantasy points.  So I could easily be 0-9.  The season is still young as only one team is really running away from the pack with an 8-1 record, team Balls Out.  All other teams, at worst, are only 2 games behind the wildcard standings.  That's definitely something to celebrate.  

The following is a what my team looked liked at the beginning of the season:

• Green=Keeper Player
• Yellow=Drafted Player
• White=Waiver Pickup

Week 1
Pos	Player
C	Carlos Santana
1B	Edwin Encarnacion
2B	Ian Kinsler
SS	Danny Espinosa
3B	Martin Prado
LF	Ryan Braun
CF	B.J. Upton
RF	Allen Craig
DH	Jay Bruce
P	A.J. Griffin
P	Tim Hudson
P	Tommy Milone
P	Andy Pettitte
P	J.J. Putz
P	Huston Street
P	Jordan Zimmermann
2B/3B	Jedd Gyorko
CF/LF	Desmond Jennings
P	Mitchell Boggs
P	Gavin Floyd
P	Brandon McCarthy
P	Rick Porcello
DL	Jason Motte
Minors	Chris Archer
Minors	N/A

At the last moment, I had decided to cut Ricky Nolasco to pick up Rick Porcello as the latter was pitching very well in spring training and Nolasco looked like a bust coming into the season.  Also, had to pick up Mitchell Boggs to replace the injured Jason Motte.  A great idea at the time, Boggs was terrible as the St. Louis Cardinals' closer.  Chris Archer was on my team last season and when I saw that he would not make the Tampa Rays' 25-man roster, I decided to insert him in my Minor League slot thinking that he had the inside track to be called up first to the Big League club.  Of course, Jake Odorrizi would be the first prospect to get a crack at the Rays' rotation when ace pitcher, David Price went down with an injury.  

This is what the team looks like now entering the current week:

Week 10
Pos	Player
C	Carlos Santana
1B	Edwin Encarnacion
2B	Jedd Gyorko
SS	Jed Lowrie
3B	Martin Prado
LF	Ryan Braun
CF	Desmond Jennings
RF	Allen Craig
DH	Josh Willingham
P	Andrew Cashner
P	Corey Kluber
P	Tommy Milone
P	Andy Pettitte
P	David Phelps
P	Dan Straily
P	Jordan Zimmermann
3B	Nolan Arenado
SS	Didi Gregorius
CF	Angel Pagan
RF	Jay Bruce
DL	Ian Kinsler
P	Shaun Marcum
P	Ricky Nolasco
Minors	Trevor Bauer
Minors	Taijuan Walker

Josh Willingham was a player I had on my team last season and he was one of the biggest reasons I had made it all the way to the championship game in 2012.  Was hoping I could reacquire him on draft night, but that didn't come to fruition.  Then an owner, surprisingly enough, dropped him and after Willingham had cleared waivers, I added him to my roster with much haste.  In his last 53 at bats, he's hit 5 homers and driven in 11 RBI.  Not bad for a waiver pickup.

I had been paying special attention to Jed Lowrie for the last 2-3 seasons but injuries and lack of opportunity has always been major hurdles.  This spring, Lowrie was in tight competition for the starting shortstop spot in Oakland.  Had he been given the job before the day of my draft, I would have picked him up as my starting SS.  But Oakland waited until the last moment to pencil him in as the starter.  Many people are down on Lowrie due to his lack of counting stats and power, but he's been getting on base and making great contact with the ball.  That's really all you can ask for from your waiver pickups.  

However, this is a points league and getting on base is only step 1 of the process.  What you do on the basepaths is how owners rack up points.  Lowrie had been battling foot problems that may or may not have caused him to slump in the last 2-3 weeks or so.  Not one to give up on Lowrie, but knowing I had to have a backup plan, I was pleasantly surprised that no one had picked up Arizona D'backs' SS, Didi Gregorius. Gregorius was one of the players that Arizona acquired for uber-prospect, Trevor Bauer. 

Bauer, was cut in week 1 or 2 of the season as the Cleveland Indians decided to call him up for a spot start.  The owner decided to cut him not wanting to risk having an "illegal lineup."  Well, that's when I decided to swoop in and use my high waiver priority to pick up Bauer.  Hopefully, he'll be ready to go for the stretch run of the season when I will need his high upside to carry me to the wildcard berth.  

The other prospect I had recently signed was Taijuan Walker as I had given up on Archer thinking that the Rays might only call him up for bullpen duties.  Walker may not be called up this season, but his potential makes him a great, long-term player.  Also, the league has done a great job in stockpiling on the best prospects in the game right now so considering that the pickings were slim, I'm content with having Walker on my club.  

The injury to Ian Kinsler was unfortunate, but came at a time where #41 ranked prospect, Jedd Gyorko was finally figuring out how to be a Big League hitter.  #6 Prospect, Nolan Arenado was picked up as a backup plan to the struggling Martin Prado.  Both have been disappointing, but I'm holding out hope that both will play to their full capabilities sooner rather than later.  

Gyorko's teammate, Andrew Cashner was somebody I had high hopes for in 2013.  But injuries in the spring forced the San Diego Padres to start him out in the bullpen, therefore, making him a bad pickup on draft day.  As soon as he was named to the starting rotation, I immediately picked him up.  The lack of strikeouts has been a disappointment, but can't argue with his good control.  Another long-term project on the team.  

Another Padres' pitcher, Huston Street was dropped recently due to injury.  I picked up Dan Straily as he's pitched very well in his last 3 starts.  Also trying to make up for the fact that I had dropped his teammate, A.J. Griffin, perhaps a bit too prematurely.  

It's been that kind of season as I have been forced to play musical chairs with my pitching staff.  It was something I knew I had to do coming into the 2013 season, but it's been a lot worse than I had anticipated.  The frustration has not only come from players I picked up as long-term solutions to my staff fizzling out in their starts immediately after I had added them to my roster, but also from guys I was counting on on draft day.  Most notably, Tim Hudson, after showing signs of brilliance at the beginning of the year, I finally had to cut him loose as he was getting lit up way too many times for my taste.  I'm really hoping that Corey Kluber and David Phelps can continue to pitch like they did before week 9.  Both pitchers combined to score ZERO points in the last game.  Also betting on the fact that oft-injured Shaun Marcum can continue to get strong and healthier with each start that he makes.  You will also notice that I went ahead and reacquired Nolasco.

Finally, I can talk about my team without warning everybody about the great peril that is B.J. Upton.  There is a reason why I drafted Jennings alongside Upton.  Both players can prove to be explosive, especially in a points' league, but both come with poor plate approach, especially Upton.  Sure enough, Upton does terribly.  Upton is so bad, he's still a free agent player in my league.  Currently, Upton is owned in 71% of CBS leagues.  He was owned by 99% of the leagues in week 1.  That's a lot of drops.  He was replaced by somebody I should have drafted to be my starting CF in the first place, Angel Pagan.  His patience and contact skills make him an ideal, prototypical centerfielder in fantasy baseball.  Injuries, unfortunately, have been a nuisance however.  When healthy, Pagan has been a steady player on my team.

I'm not sure what the future holds for me this season.  I saw this season as one where I would not only have to rebuild, but stay competitive in a division that was there for the taking.  The Division may be out of reach now, but the wildcard is still there if I want it.  I have no excuses however.  I know my pitching staff is terrible, but I will continue to aggressively pursue pitchers to fill out my starting rotation on a permanent basis--not just spot starts.  My batting lineup, on the other hand, are full of players that I had targeted on draft day and are now on my team.  They're slumping right now, but the reason I acquired them was because their plate discipline would help extinguish slumps in a fast manner.  If anything, their approach would at least help them get on base, therefore, help these players score runs or steal bases.  So far, the plan looks like it has backfired, but I will continue to go to battle with these guys.  I'm encouraged to see Gyorko develop into the hitter I thought he could be in his rookie year and I'm hoping guys like Arenado, Lowrie, and Prado can follow suit.  

Feel free to share your fantasy baseball experience in 2013 in the comments' section.

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Q&A: A Different Perspective

Does anyone else in fantasy baseball cause more headaches
than this guy?
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos)

Josh C

(Editor's note: Josh was kind enough to answer a few, select fantasy baseball questions from this past week.  You may know Josh as our resident Sacramento Kings' fan and is one of my biggest fantasy sports' rival, most notably defeating my baseball team in our league's 2012 championship game.  He brings a different view on what he thinks makes for a successful fantasy baseball season).

QUESTION #1: "Need OF help and I have to choose between Coco Crisp, Jayson Werth, and Melky Cabrera.  Who would you choose?"

Of course, Crisp and Werth are currently injured at the moment so Melky Cabrera is the default answer.  However, if all three are healthy, I would definitely have Werth as my third choice.  So it boils down between Cabrera and Crisp and what kind of OF your team is looking for.  In terms of pop, Melky has a slight advantage, but Crisp is clearly the better base stealer.  However, if you're looking for batting average, Cabrera is your man as I highly doubt that Crisp can continue to hit over .280.  Plus Cabrera is hitting in a better lineup than Crisp.  Toronto is struggling now, but when they turn things around, I want to have Cabrera in my lineup so he can reap the benefits and starts helping my team.

QUESTION #2: "Is Kyle Kendrick for real?"

Depends on your definition of "real."  Is he as good as the numbers he's putting up?  No, but he's one of those guys that you "power stream" (meaning you play them against everyone except the "power" lineups).  I say he can finish the year with 12-14 wins, 3.34 ERA, WHIP of 1.19, and approximately 140 strikeouts.  Not too shabby.

QUESTION #3: "I'm a B.J. Upton owner.  Now what?"  (I too have B.J. Upton on my current squad--Ed)

Huge fan of Justin Upton, but never been a fan of B.J.  That being said, he can still contribute in all the major categories, except batting average and I still figure that he can hit around .240.  Without doing the math, for him to have a "spike" from his current average of .138 to .240 means he's going to have a hot stretch at some point to get there.  I think the fact that Justin is there with him this season is going to help him out of this slump.  I wouldn't drop just yet and would continue to keep riding him in my bench until I see a glimmer of hope (if you insist that I should continue to practice patience...--Ed).

QUESTION #4: "Would you trade Giancarlo Stanton for Matt Holliday?"

Even if assuming that Stanton is healthy and Holiday can continue to be a durable player at his advanced age, I think I would still have to say 'yes' on this one.  I don't believe Holliday is as good of a player as Stanton, but I was already doubting Stanton entering this season (and even long before I realized just how bad this Miami Marlins' lineup would be).  His statements about how he felt about the organization after their fire sale in the offseason made me wonder how a guy with a fire inside like that is going to do when his team is the worst in the league and he doesn't have anybody in the lineup to protect him.  The current results have answered all of my questions.  Nobody is pitching to him, but then again, he's not walking that much either.  That tells me that he's getting frustrated at not being pitched to and swinging at pitches he wouldn't swing at in the past.  

I think the homeruns will come eventually this year, however (I'd take the over on 27), but not sure any of the other peripherals or counting stats will come around in 2013.  Conversely, it's very hard to count out a guy when he has uber talent.  

QUESTION #5: "Jim Henderson or Jim Johnson?"

I really want to say Henderson here, but I actually prefer him from a skills standpoint (I don't know about you, but I like my closers to be able to fan the side).  However, for some reason, the Milwaukee Brewers love Axford.  I just have this feeling that if Axford continues pitching well like he has been of late (although he took the loss yesterday against the Pirates--Ed), that they are going to give him another shot (or turn it into some sort of "platoon"/"closer by committee"). 

I have to go with Jim Johnson on this one because of the current solidity of his role. 

QUESTION #6: "Lorenzo Cain or Starlin Marte?"

I like both of these guys, but Marte still hacks a little too much for me to completely believe in his average.  He's going to steal more bases, but I think Cain has more ability to be a multi-way guy.  Slight advantage to Cain.

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BRAGGING RIGHTS 2013: Felipe's Dreadful Draft Experience

Jay Bruce will be counted on to provide power and run-production in 2013.
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's FIELD OF FOTOS)

Felipe M

I have been playing in a keeper league for the last 10 seasons or so.  The League is Mardi Gras Madness.  My team name: Black Hole Army named after the villains of this video game:

Sunday night was the draft from hell for my keeper league's annual draft.  Aside from the fact that the league’s draft module kept breaking down on us, it seemed every time I was getting ready to draft somebody, another owner would swoop in and swipe that player out of my hands.  So I ended up selecting a lot of players that I really was not excited to have on my team, but these will be the guys I will be going to war with in this 2013 season:

KEEPERS

• Carlos Santana--C
• Edwin Encarnacion—1B
• Ian Kinsler—2B
• Ryan Braun--LF
• Allen Craig--RF
• Jay Bruce--DH
• Jason Motte--P

I actually like these players as they were the core to my run at the title last season only to fall short in the championship game.  Santana is an elite backstop and still young enough to fulfill potential.  Encarnacion and Craig had breakout years last season and their respective teams consider them part of their future.  Kinsler is still one of the best 2B in all of baseball.  Braun is arguably one of the best hitters in the league.  Meanwhile, Bruce can supply points by the truckloads due to his power bat and Motte can rack up the saves because of his power arm.  Unfortunately, Motte is expected to be placed on the DL to start the season with elbow issues—bummer.  Recently picked up Mitchell Boggs off waivers to offset the Motte injury. 

So coming into the draft, I have a few positions on offense to fill out, but I would have to focus on pitching, pitching, and pitching.  Will this strategy pay off?  It would have to because technically, coming into this draft, I have no pitchers.  Here are the results:

DRAFTED PLAYERS

• Martin Prado—3B
• Jordan Zimmerman—P
• B.J. Upton—CF
• Desmond Jennings—CF
• J.J. Putz—P
• Huston Street—P
• Brandon McCarthy—P
• Tommy Milone—P
• Tim Hudson—P
• Andy Pettitte—P
• Jedd Gyorko—3B
• Danny Espinosa—SS
• Gavin Floyd—P
• A.J. Griffin—P
• Ricky Nolasco—P

Clearly, other than Zimmerman (whom I was thinking of keeping instead of Motte until I read reports of ‘Z’ having issues with a “dead arm” earlier in the spring), a lot of the starting pitchers that I drafted this year are not my type of pitchers.  But what can I do?  All elite pitchers were kept by other teams coming into this draft.  So I was stuck selecting pitch-to-contact pitchers with good control.  Not very happy with the pitching staff, but I did what I could under the circumstances. 

I’m also not very happy with being stuck selecting both B.J.Upton and Jennings, but in the 3^rd and 4^th round, they seemed to be the best and most explosive players available in those two rounds. I’m not high on either one of them, but hopefully the gamble on picking the low patience/contact rate hitters will pay off in the end.

As you guys should know by now, I really like Prado and I even attempted to trade for him in the offseason, but couldn’t make a deal in time to beat our league’s offseason trade deadline.  So when I saw him available with the 11^th pick overall, I did away with my “select nothing but pitchers” strategy and jumped all over the very steady, high patience/contact rate hitter.  He also qualifies at LF so the versatility is an added bonus.

Putz and Street are two of my favorite relievers in the game and somehow, I’m always lucky enough to at least have one of these pitchers in one of my teams for the last three seasons.  In my Yahoo! league, I had both of them on my team, en route to a championship game loss.  I had Street in this keeper league last season as well.  So I was more than happy to see these two closers available to bring some sort of respectability to my pitching staff.

Not happy with the Espinosa pick, but he was my “last line of defense”shortstop.  I was actually going after Elvis Andrus in the 3^rd round, but he was immediately grabbed in the middle of the 2^nd round.  Ian Desmond was my second choice, but somehow, he also got picked up in that same round as well.  I was so desperate for a SS, I was even thinking of picking Derek Jeter, but our resident New York Yankee fan picked him up in the 13^th round.  Guess I’ll be keeping a very close eye on the waivers this season for another shortstop.

Before picking Espinosa, I rolled the dice and reached forGyorko.  As you guys should know, I’ve been excited about Gyorko for awhile now.  Whether I reached too early for him is debatable, but seeing how there were only a handful of players that I would consider selecting before him, I think I made the right choice going with Gyorko’s upside.  And he will eventually qualify at 2B as well and I have Prado manning 3B for now so Gyorko will be riding my bench for awhile until he shows that he can handle big league pitching.

Not really happy with my team, especially my pitching staff, but the best part about it is that it forced me to step out of my comfort zone and go after pitchers I would have never considered drafting in years past.  Last year, I did a good job in picking the pitchers that fit my paradigm as to what a fantasy pitcher should be.  The result last season?  I had the worst pitching staff in our league last year (I still don't know how I reached the championship game in 2012, but that's baseball).  So hopefully, this change in thought will bring me different results and put me over the hump and help me earn that elusive baseball title. 

I really like the batting lineup I have assembled: Encarnacion and Craig are not flukes, I feel this is Santana’s year to blow up, Gyorko and Prado at the hot corner, Jennings and Upton sharing duties in CF, Espinosa is a 15/15 guy, Bruce can light up the scoreboard with his power, and of course, they will all be led by Kinsler and Braun throughout the season. 

So that’s my team—what’s yours?

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CATCH!: 2013 Early Pre-Rankings--CF

How far down will Curtis Granderson drop on this list?

Felipe M

LF pre-rankings are available here. 

GREEN = on my keeper team.

TOP TIER

1. Andrew McCutchen: The time is now for "Cutch" to take over the top spot at CF after waiting patiently for his turn to arrive.  I don't even have to explain myself on this one.  With respect to Mike Trout's raw abilities and skills, McCutchen, at this stage of his career, is the more complete hitter and, therefore, occupies this year's top spot at center.  

2. Matt Kemp: With all due respect to Trout, it's hard to ignore a guy who is projected to produce an OPS of .907 (per ESPN).  By comparison, Trout is projected by the worldwide leader to obtain an OPS of .823.  

3. Mike Trout: There he is!  This year, Trout is projected to produce an OPS of, on average, .871.  He's also needs to work on his approach at the plate.  Perhaps if I were solely just concentrating on Roto-style ball, I would consider putting Trout at #1 (27 homers/48 steals), but I have to consider his unpolished discipline at the plate for the players who have to take strikeouts and on-base% into effect.  "Cutch" and Kemp are projected to have a higher on-base% for 2013.  

4. Josh Hamilton: Projected to have better power production than Trout, Hamilton is even less disciplined at the plate than Trout and also comes with plenty of baggage (injuries, off-the-field issues, etc.).  However, new team with established stars on the club should make him a happier, even more productive hitter. 

SECOND TIER

5. Bryce Harper: Could possibly be a 25/25 guy, but, like Trout, he needs to improve his discipline at the plate.  Harper is still developing his game despite making an All-Star appearance and winning Rookie of the Year honors.  That's a scary thought to have a player that's established like Harper, yet is still in the process of improving to greater heights.  

6. Adam Jones: I gave up on Jones a long time ago.  Even as his power finally developed as promised, it's hard to ignore his terrible discipline at the plate.  However, his adequate contact rate helps him get on base and provide a very heatlhy batting average.  He'll also throw in 15 stolen bases.

Yoenis Cespedes turned out to be as good as advertised.

7. Yoenis Cespedes: I attempted to draft Cespedes in the draft last year, but he went one spot ahead of me in the 6th round (which really is the 13th round in our league after taking into account the 7 keepers one must keep).  He can easily be a 25/25 player at his best in 2013 and his adequate contact rate keeps him at a steady batting average.  If he can imrpove on his discipline, he can easily be an elite player at his position. 

8. Jacoby Ellsbury: He can easily be an elite player with his speed/power combo, but injuries have forced owners to look elsewhere for healthier alternatives.  ESPN is calling his injuries "fluky," but a player that plays hard like Ellsbury needs to understand how to pace himself as well.  There's a thin line between being a "hustling" player and being "Eric Byrnes"--a guy who just goes at full speed just for the sake of showing his manager that he can go full speed at all times.  Ellsbury is not a scrub like Byrnes.  But he does need to be healthy to produce and be on the field to produce the monster numbers that we know he can attain.  

9. Curtis Granderson: I was ready to relegate Granderson into THIRD TIER status, but it's very hard to drop him out of the top 10 at the position.  I despise the fact that he has terrible plate discipline and strikeout totals, but sometimes those counting stats are so impressive, that all other stats that gauge a player's contact/hit, and patience can be thrown out the window.  As long as Granderson plays at Yankee Stadium, we can forgive him for being a quasi-all-or-nothing hitter.  He is projected to miss the enitre month of May.

10. B.J. Upton: And then there's the overrated Upton.  The counting stats are great, but even Roto players will be pulling their hair at his awful batting average.  His low contact rate, poor discipline, and laughable on-base% would make him practically useless in Head-2-Head/Points' leagues if it wasn't for the fact that his 30/30 capabilities can provide for an explosive outburst of production from time to time.  

THIRD TIER

The rest of the field: 

• Austin Jackson (with a terrible approach at the plate and a high strikeout rate, how he is able to project to have a .348 on-base% is beyond me)
• Desmond Jennings (still needs to figure it out at the plate, but when he gets on base, he can fly)
• Alejandro De Aza (adequate contact rate and can actually get on-base and provide 25+ stolen bases and 10+ homeruns).
• Angel Pagan (modest on-base% is made up by good discipline and contact rate. Can get you 30 stolen bases)
• Shane Victorino (age and decrease in production is a concern, but still a solid play with a projected respectable on-base% of .337 and 28 steals).
• Dexter Fowler (potential 15/15 player, but very impatient at the plate. Projected OPS of .812 is not too shabby though)
• Michael Bourn (adequate contact rate will help him achieve projection of 45 stolen bases)
• Carlos Gomez (15/30 player, but terrible on-base skills will hurt in both Roto and Points' leagues alike)
• Coco Crisp (decent patience and contact skills will should mean an improved batting average and on-base% alike. Power seems to be waning, but is still a good source of steals)

Keep an eye on:

• Adam Eaton (Until I see that he has "officially" won a starting spot, I'm not moving him from this spot).
• Ben Revere (can rack up the steals, and contact rate plus speed makes him a tough out despite low on-base%)
• Drew Stubbs (Roto leagues only)

All photos courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos.

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