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Showing posts with label pitching. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pitching. Show all posts

Friday, March 29, 2013

MAKING THE PITCH: Los Angeles Dodgers

Felipe M

We take a look at the projected starting rotations and closer situations of every MLB team.  Of course, this will come from a fantasy perspective.  All cited stats are based on 2013 projections. 


We marveled at how loaded the St. Louis Cardinals' pitching staff was.

The Los Angeles Dodgers also have depth, but in a different kind of way.  

2013 Pitching Projections
Player
Team
K/BB
K/9
BB/9
H/9
WHIP
HR/9
Zack Greinke
Los Angeles
3.89
8.83
2.27
7.47
1.08
0.83
Clayton Kershaw
Los Angeles
3.70
9.28
2.51
7.05
1.06
0.60
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Los Angeles
3.17
8.31
2.62
8.80
1.27
0.89
Josh Beckett
Los Angeles
2.84
7.68
2.70
8.79
1.28
1.01
Chad Billingsley
Los Angeles
2.30
7.53
3.27
8.56
1.32
0.71
Brandon League
Los Angeles
2.13
6.75
3.18
8.34
1.28
0.53














Clayton Kershaw is the best left-handed starting pitcher and the 2nd best overall pitcher coming into the 2013 season.  What more do you want to know?

The Korean southpaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu had himself a very productive spring, but it remains to be seen how he will produce and endure in the Big Leagues.  Predicting Major League success from pitchers coming from Japan, Korea, or other parts in Asia has often been a difficult task.  Ryu, however, seems to have a good, pitching repertoire.  Plus he's only 26 so perhaps his projections are not too far to reach.  I cautiously listed him as a 3rd Tier pitcher, behind Miguel Gonzalez.  He might be worth the risk if you decide to draft him ahead of other 3rd Tier pitchers like Homer Bailey, Jeremy Hellickson, and Joe Blanton.  

Josh Beckett is the pitcher that follows Ryu on the starting pitchers' list.  Even if Beckett can attain the projected stats, that's still not a bad season out of him.  Especially when you consider how disastrous he was last year.  

Chad Billingsley has seen very little action this spring because of a bruised right index finger.  There's even a risk of him starting the year on the DL.  A concern for a guy who failed to start in more than 30 games last year for the first time since 2007.  However, if he stays healthy, despite the high WHIP, he can still be a serviceable pitcher in fantasy leagues.  Walks will drive you nuts, but considering he posted a BB/9 of +4 in 2011, his projected BB/9 is actually an improvement from the righty who has struggled in that aspect throughout his career.

Speaking of injuries, Zack Greinke seems to be at 50/50 to start the season on time.  He is questionable as he's recovering from elbow inflammation.  Other recent reports indicate that he will be ready, so stay tuned.  When Greinke is healthy, he's definitely a top 10 pitcher.

The closer situation is a mess as the Dodgers will be going with Brandon League, but based on his projections, he may not be the right option for the job.  Out of all the current closers, League has the 4th worst K/BB.  Many think it's only a matter of time before Kenley Jansen will take over. Jansen has been compared to Craig Kimbrel--the best closer in baseball.  You might want to handcuff these two or roll the dice with Jansen if you need saves and are banking on the idea that League won't last long in that role.  This is a situation to keep a close eye on as the season progresses.

Finally, the Dodgers are definitely deep in pitching, but not necessarily in a good way as they all have issues that prevented them from being on the starting rotation.  Injuries to Greinke and Billingsley brings hope to these pitchers so it's worth listing them:

  • Currently, Chris Capuano is listed as the #5 starter, but he comes with durability issues, advanced age, a disappointing finish in 2012, and is prone to giving up a lot of homeruns.
  • Aaron Harang 
  • Ted Lilly
    • Both pitchers are getting up there in age and have seen some production decrease in the last few seasons or so.  Plus the Dodgers would prefer if they'd stay in the bullpen.
  • Numerous pitching prospects, including Zach Lee
So as you can see, the Dodgers have depth in terms of pitchers that can step in and do the job, but they are not overwhelmingly, amazing options to place on a fantasy team.  They will have to wait for an injury to get their chance.

MAKING THE PITCH: Chicago White Sox

Felipe M

We take a look at the projected starting rotations and closer situations of every MLB team.  Of course, this will come from a fantasy perspective.  All cited stats are based on 2013 projections.  


Click here to look back at the New York Yankees' rotation

Now let's review the hometown, Chicago White Sox


2013 Pitching Projections
Player
Team
K/BB
K/9
BB/9
H/9
WHIP
HR/9
Jake Peavy
White Sox
3.91
7.94
2.03
8.16
1.13
1.19
Chris Sale
White Sox
3.50
9.37
2.68
7.89
1.17
1.02
Gavin Floyd
White Sox
2.61
7.53
2.89
8.71
1.29
1.08
Jose Quintana
White Sox
1.90
5.79
3.05
9.47
1.39
1.00
Addison Reed
White Sox
3.90
10.17
2.61
7.70
1.14
1.04













On paper, the White Sox have a solid rotation, but when you watch them live, they can be one of the most frustrating pitchers to watch.  

Chris Sale is one of the best up-and-coming, young hurlers in the game today, but his violent delivery is a cause for concern as many people think he faces a definite, long-term hiatus from the game because of injury.  Until that happens, keep riding him on your pitching staff as the numbers suggest that he should be a top-20 pitcher this season.  




Speaking of injuries, Jake Peavy, despite having a great, All-Star season in 2012, is still a player that many owners are hesitant to select because of his lengthy history with injuries.  Peavy will also be turning 32 after 1/3 of the season is complete.  Whether you think that's "old" or not is one thing, but after 11 seasons, one has to think of possible wear and tear on a pitcher that has trouble staying healthy for a majority of the season.  Obviously, he can still pitch at an elite level, but selecting him early in your draft might prove to be disastrous.

Gavin Floyd might not have a history of injuries, but he has a dreadful history of inconsistency and a disappointment in terms of unreached potential.  His K/BB is not too bad, but his WHIP of 1.29 places him dangerously close to a level of unreliability in fantasy circles.  I did place him #2 in my starting pitchers' list; that is to say he's the 2nd best pitcher on my 4th tier list--meaning he's ranked 74th overall.  Proceed with caution.  

Jose Quintana was a nice story from last season, virtually coming out of nowhere to help the team stay in contention.  However, it's puzzling to see that comparison to his minor league numbers were not even close to duplicating in the Majors last season.  Fatigue was a concern late in the year and the projections show us a pitcher that should be avoided in fantasy drafts this season (CBS leagues report that he's being taken as the overall, 217th player in most drafts--in AL-only leagues).  If there is any hope for Quintana to be a deep-deep sleeper in 2013 is that he's actually been dominating this spring with a WHIP of 0.65 and 15 K's in 12.3 innings pitched.  Take a flyer on Quintana and definitely keep a close eye on him if he's on the waiver wire.

Dylan Axelrod was named as the 5th starter due to John Danks starting the season on the DL.  Axelrod showed some flashes of great pitching, but overall he did terribly in 2012.  He's had a great spring so keep an eye on him in the event that you need another starter early on this season.

Addison Reed, after the White Sox seemed to do everything they could to not give him the role, emerged as the closer in 2012.  He did struggle at times, nevertheless.  His projected HR/9 is the 4th worst among closers coming into the 2013 season.  In a hitter's ballpark like "The Cell," that can prove to trouble, but Reed should prove to be an effective closer after a year under his belt.

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