MARDI GRAS MADNESS: Texas Power Drinkers

Felipe M

We continue on our reviews for our fantasy baseball league, Mardi Gras Madness.  Please take some time to read about The Evil Empire.

Up next is yet another team out of Lone Star State.  And apparently, they like to drink--a lot:

EAST DIVISION--Texas Power Drinkers 

BATTING LINEUP

Like: Matt Kemp has turned into a beast since 2010 in terms of counting stats.  He strikes out too much, but does enough to get on base and his power and speed makes him a legit player in both Roto and Points leagues.  Coming in for support are Billy Butler, Yadier Molina, Aaron Hill and Jason Heyward.

Dislike: Admittedly, out of desperation, I was thinking of picking up Erick Aybar as my SS options were disappearing at my draft.  Luckily, I didn’t have to.  Aybar is a pesky hitter, but comes equipped with a low on-base%. 

Nick Markakis will need to prove that he is still a
relevant player in fantasy baseball
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann)

Look Out For: Carl Crawford if it turns out that his stint as a Red Sox was just an aberration.  Many in the SABR community think that Crawford is declining at a dangerous pace, but for once I’m optimistic about a player.  New league, new scene, and a clean bill of health might return Crawford into a top hitter again.  Also, Kendry Morales in Seattle as they move the fences in.  He should be able to produce if he’s able to stay healthy for a full year.  And finally, Jeff Keppinger is a sneaky player to keep track of.  He qualifies everywhere on the infield except for SS.  He had a surprising year in 2012 and has been hitting the ball all spring long (at one point he was hitting well above .500--batting average). 

Bench: Keppinger will hold down 3B for the injured David Freese.  Hanley Ramirez is on the mend, but will surely replace either Aybar or Keppinger, depending on who’s struggling upon his return.  Currently, Nick Markakis is slotted as the DH, but if he can’t hit for a bit more power, I can see a scenario where both will share duties at that spot. 

2013 Hitting Projections
Player	Team	Pos	BB/K	AB/K	AB/HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB
Matt Kemp	Los Angeles	CF	0.41	3.83	17.20	0.366	0.533	0.899	19
Billy Butler	Kansas City	1B	0.61	5.98	23.99	0.374	0.495	0.869	2
Kendry Morales	Seattle	1B	0.30	4.38	22.03	0.326	0.464	0.790	0
Nick Markakis	Baltimore	RF	0.80	7.86	38.74	0.362	0.441	0.803	5
Aaron Hill	Arizona	2B	0.55	7.07	27.68	0.335	0.460	0.795	12

PITCHING

Like: King Felix Hernandez is the ace of this staff.  He will be supported by Doug Fister who has been great since being traded to Detroit.  I also like Mat Latos.  Even when he was traded to the Reds, I was still trying to draft him in all of my leagues last season because I believe in his abilities.  Then there’s Matt Moore who will look to take another step forward in his progression to become a legit, 1^st Tier SP.

Dislike: This team makes it too easy for me: UbaldoJimenez and Jason Vargas were good enough to make this squad.  Wow!  Luckily, this team has plenty of pitching depth where they’re not in desperate need for these two, mediocre, pitchers’ services.

Look Out For: There are a few candidates here.   Brett Anderson was struggling during the spring as he tried to overcome a neck injury.  When he’s on, he is a legit, 2^nd Tier pitcher.  Lance Lynn, if he is able to pitch like he did early in 2012, this team will have a pitching staff that will overwhelm opponents.  

2013 Pitching Projections
Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/9
Doug Fister	Detroit	3.63	6.65	1.83	9.21	1.23	0.81
Brett Anderson	Oakland	3.28	6.78	2.07	8.79	1.21	0.72
Lance Lynn	St. Louis	2.92	8.75	3.00	8.16	1.24	0.89

Drew Smyly was an interesting selection by this club.  Even though he was relegated to the bullpen, he is still pitching deep into spring games.  I was shocked to see that the Tigers did not send him down the Minors as it was reported early in the spring that Smyly would be starting in 2013, either in the Majors or Minors.  I can’t envision him as a SP in a Tigers’ uniform because the rotation is full of pitchers that can rack up the innings, but it’s clear that the Tigers are up to something. 

Finally, lurking in the Minors is Zach Wheeler who might be brought up sometime in 2013.  Selfishly, I would prefer sooner rather than later as I anxiously wait to see what this kid can do in the Majors.  As I mentioned before, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets wait until September like they did with Matt Harvey. 

Bullpen: As much as I’m shaken by last year’s roller-coaster ride that was Addison Reed, I think he will be a bit more stable in 2013.  After battling an infected tooth, Rafael Soriano seems to be ready to go for 2013.  In terms of K/BB, he rated middle of the pack among qualified closers in that category so there’s a slight concern there.  Put it another way, Glen Perkins ranks ahead of Soriano in that category.

PREDICTION: This club has themselves a good collection of players.  As always with this franchise, I’m highly impressed with the balance they are able to achieve in their lineup after every single draft.  This year, however, I have to caution my expectations of this team due to the fact that there are way too many “ifs” on this club.  “If this guy comes back healthy,” “if this guy can pitch like he’s supposed to,” “if this guy can bounce back,” “etc.”  It’s ok to gamble on one or two players whose stock fell for whatever reason, but when it becomes the basis on building your franchise for any upcoming season, it tends to hurt more than help you in the end.  

More fantasy baseball is available here.

You can view the other Mardi Gras Madness teams here. 

CATCH!: 2013 Early Pre-Rankings--3B

Will Longoria stay healthy this season?
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos)

Felipe M

Catchers can be seen, here.

1B are located here.

2B are available here. 

SS are ready to view here. 

TOP TIER

1. Miguel Cabrera: MVP, Triple-Crown Winner: what more can be said?

2. Adrian Beltre: He will be 34 this year.  He can still rake, however. Should be good for another 30/100 season.

3. David Wright: Mr. Met is a solid player to have at this position.  He can even steal 15+ bases.  The difference between him and Beltre is that the latter has slightly better contact skills.

4. Evan Longoria: So young and full of talent.  If only he could stay healthy.  If he does stay healthy, you can expect a 30/100 season, .300 average, and a .935 OPS.

5. Ryan Zimmerman: Just like Longoria, Zimmerman is starting to get a reputation of being injury-proned.  However, when healthy, he can provide plenty of power and just enough contact on the ball to help with the batting average.

SECOND TIER

6. Aramis Ramirez: At 35, we know what we're getting in Ramirez.  He also has a reputation for being a slow-starter and/or a player who seems to produce the most when the pressure is off of him.  He can be very productive, nonetheless.

7. Chase Headley: Last year, around this time, many projected Headly to hit 10 homeruns,   SLG% .392, and an OPS of .742.  He ended up with 30 homers, SLG% .498, and produce an OPS of .875.  I don't think he'll go on that power surge again, but Petco is supposed to move in their fences.  He is also good for 15 stolen bases.  20/90 and .820 OPS is more realistic.

8. Brett Lawrie: A lot of publications have Lawrie in this slot, but be forewarned: he's still undergoing development.  A lot of the hype comes from his untapped potential and 20/20 projections, but he still is undisciplined at the plate and had a groundball rate of 51% in 2012.   He does provide solid contact skills, but needs to provide more power. 

9. Hanley Ramirez: We've mentioned how much of a headache Hanley can be on our SS list.  Depending on what you need, he can still be a 25/25 player, but provides relatively low on-base% and OPS.

10. Pablo Sandoval: The World Series MVP will be on high demand in most drafts this year.  However, there are some concerns with this "Panda": injuries, playing for the Giants and their massive ballpark, and his weight.  Despite those concerns, Sandoval is only 26 and ready to enter his prime years and has the ability to hist 25+ homers and provide massive OPS.  

11. Martin Prado: Probably the "safest" player on the list: he's versatile, garners lots of at bats, and has great patience at the plate, and superior contact skills.  He won't provide much power, but he does have on-base skills and can still be a 15/15 player.

THIRD TIER

The rest of the field:

• Kevin Youkilis
• David Freese
• Todd Frazier
• Kyle Seager
• Will Middlebrooks
• Michael Young
• Mike Moustakas
• Manny Machado

Keep an eye on:

• Lonnie Chisenhall
• Matt Dominguez
• Nolan Arenado

More MLB content is available here. 

CATCH!: 2013 Early Pre-Rankings--SS

There's no doubting his ability, but can Tulo stay healthy for a full season?
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann's Field of Fotos)

Felipe M

Catchers are ranked, here.

1B are ranked, here.

2B are ranked, here.

GREEN=Currently on my keeper team. 

TOP TIER

1. Troy Tulowitzki: His ability is never in question; it's his health that seems to be a problem.  Projected OPS alone puts him way ahead of everybody else at the position.

2. Ben Zobrist: Just like in our 2B list, Zobrist's projections and position versatility are too good to pass up and ignore for 2013.

3. Jose Reyes: New team, new league; it will be interesting to see how Reyes responds to a totally new environment.  High contact rate, respectable on-base%, and stolen bases, presumably, will streamline very well. 

4. Starlin Castro: I'm really not sold on Castro, but his career numbers at this stage of his career seem to be comparable to some pretty good, Hall of Famers when they were Castro's age (22).  However, he needs to improve on his plate discipline and petty, in-game distractions on defense, but youth is definitely on his side.

5. Hanley Ramirez: What a miserable year it must have been to be a Hanley owner. He can still be a 20-20 player and he's projected to improve his plate discipline, but it's hard for me to take a risk on a guy who might be more of a headache than he's worth.

SECOND TIER

6. Ian Desmond: Came on strong late in 2012 as he was more aggressive at the plate.  Nevertheless, I find it hard to imagine him repeating Slash Lines of .292/.335/.511 with a terrible batting approach.  However, he's still projected to be a 20/20 player.

7. Jimmy Rollins: J-Roll is approaching that time in a player's career where diminished skills are too hard to overcome.  An impressive contact rate was his saving grace as it helped him hit 23 HRs and garner 30 stolen bases, but a paltry OPS of .743 is not going to cut it.  He needs to turn that contact rate into a higher batting average to help out Roto owners, but his projected low OPS for 2013 might hurt head2head owners.

8. Elvis Andrus: Decent contact rate and patience at the plate is how Andrus generates his most important attribute in fantasy: the ability to steal bases.  That combination also helps with batting average.

9. Erick Aybar: Never thought I would see the day that Aybar would make a top 10 in anything, but here we are.  Aybar has proven to be somewhat of a tough out and that's basically how he gets on base. Might hit 10 homeruns and is good for 25 stolen bases and his ability to make contact with the ball will help with batting average.

10. Asdrubal Cabrera: If "defensive wizardry" was aggregated in fantasy leagues, Cabrera's stock would be rising on this list.  However, it's an offensive-minded game. He brings 15/15 potential and a respectable on-base%. He does strikeout a lot so if you're in a head2head league that takes away points for that stat, you might want to look elsewhere for a more stable alternative.

11. Alcides Escobar: A recurring theme with shortstops, Escobar comes with a decent contact rate.  However, unlike the last few players listed, Escobar is very impatient at the plate.  Escobar comes with 30 steals potential and that's why he's on a lot of publications' top 15 list, but I, personally, would look elsewhere to fill out the position.

12. Marco Scutaro: There's that man again!  We explained Scutaro's 2013 outlook in our 2B projections.  Basically, impressive contact rate and patience, but advanced age is a factor.

13. Derek Jeter: Speaking of age: Jeter should be ready to go for 2013, barring more grotesque injuries.  Just like Scutaro, Jeter is an age risk (39). Good contact rate, impressive on-base numbers, and ability to hit for a high average make him an attractive choice in fantasy, but power has been pretty much sapped out of him and stolen bases are declining.  He's still a 10/10 player.  

THIRD TIER

The rest of the field: 

• Danny Espinosa (if he were more patient at the plate, he would definitely be a higher ranked middle infielder).
• J.J. Hardy
• Alexei Ramirez
• Andrelton Simmons
• Everth Cabrera
• Jed Lowrie (talk about your deep sleepers)

Keep an eye on:

• Jurickson Profar
• Yunel Escobar
• Billy Hamilton
• Jean Segura

Mor MLB content available here.

3B list is available here. 

2012 MLB PROSPECT REVIEW: #20-16

Will Lonnie Chisenhall meet his potential and be a long-term
fixture at 3B for the Cleveland Indians?
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann)

20. Will Middlebrooks--3B--Boston Red Sox

• 2012 Outlook: "Hits for power; might get called up in 2012."
• 2012 Achievements: Garnered 267 at bats for the Red Sox.
• Conclusion: Unfortunately, Middlebrooks' season ended early last year due to a fractured wrist he suffered on August 10, 2012.  He posted a Major League Slash Line of .288/.325/.509 to go with 12 homeruns, but posted a dismal .19 BB:K.  He posted similar numbers throughout his career in the Minors (.276/.333/.454/.787) where he hit only 1 homerun every 30 at bats, but was able to show off his gap power as he hit 1 extra-base hit (minus homeruns) every 14 at bats.  He will definitely come back as the everyday 3B in Boston and is projected to hit between 3-6. 

19. Nate Eovaldi--SP--Miami Marlins

• 2012 Outlook: "Might make it to Big Leagues out of spring training, but needs more seasoning in Triple-A."
• 2012 Achievements: Made 22 pitching starts combined for the Dodgers and Marlins.



The Marlins were able to flip Hanley Ramirez for former
Dodger pitching prospect, Nate Eovaldi
(photo courtesy of Mike McCann)

• Conclusion: Eovaldi was traded to Miami in the deal that shipped Hanley Ramirez to L.A. His 2012 in the Majors is as follows: K/9 5.9; BB/9 3.55; K:BB 1.66; WHIP 1.51.  Just to have a basis of comparison, here are his numbers after 138 innings pitched in Double-A: K/9 8.4; BB/9 3.8; K/BB 2.19; WHIP 1.20.  He is supposed to have the inside track to start at the back end of the Marlins' starting rotation.  

18. Lonnie Chisenhall--3B--Cleveland Indians

• 2012 Outlook: "Competing for 3B job.  Described as a 'complete hitter.'"
• 2012 Achievements: Garnered 142 at bats with the Indians. 
• Conclusion: Missed about three months due to a right wrist injury after getting hit by a pitch.  He finished the 2012 Major League campaign with a BB:K of .30; .311OBP%; .430SLG%. Numbers at Triple-A were solid: BB:K .46; .282/.349/.458/.808.  Has inside track to to win 3B job with the Indians for 2013. 

17. Yonder Alonso--1B--San Diego Padres

• 2012 Outlook: "Competing for 1B job.  Numbers might suffer at Petco Park."
• 2012 Achievements: Played 155 games for the Padres last season.



Petco Park: where balls fly only to die and end up in
outfielders' gloves.
(photo courtesy of Felipe M.)

• Conclusion: Alonso will highly likely break camp with the Padres as the starting 1B.  That much is for sure.  How much will Alonso benefit from the fences being moved in at Petco?  It remains to be seen, but he can't be as bad as he was last season: 9 homeruns and 62 RBIs in his first full season with San Diego.  Based on his Triple-A stats, he should be able to produce big at the Major League level: .61 BB:K; .296/.364/.478/.842.  So he obviously does have the potential to be a big bat in the middle of the order.  The rest of his 2012, Padres, stats: .61 BB/K (not a type), .273/.348/.393.  Despite the weak SLG%, Alonso did hit 39 doubles last season (1 in 14 at bats).  Hopefully that's a positive sign that he can take advantage of a less, spacious Petco Park.   

16. Drew Pomeranz--SP--Colorado Rockies

• 2012 Outlook: "Might win job out of spring training.  Can be effective."
• 2012 Achievements: Started 22 games for the Rockies, but was on a very limited innings count (finished with 96.2 IPs in 2012).
• Conclusion: Pomeranz not only struggled with the Rockies last season, but he was already struggling in Triple-A: 10 GS, K/BB 2.38; WHIP 1.52; BB/9 3.7; K/9 8.9; H/9 9.9.  Last season with the Rockies, he posted K/BB 1.80; WHIP 1.49; BB/9 4.3; K/9 7.7; H/9 9.1.  Somewhat similar numbers, but despite last year's struggles, the Rockies are still hoping that he can make it back to the Big Leagues as, at the very least, a #5 starter. 

To check out Mike McCann's "Field of Fotos" and check out other great baseball pics, click here.

Prospects #25-21 are available here.

Prospects #15-11 are available here.