MARDI GRAS MADNESS: The Evil Empire

Felipe M

We continue on our reviews for our fantasy baseball league, Mardi Gras Madness.  Please take some time to read the St Bernard Giants outlook.  

The next team is the newest owner in our league, but by no means is he a rookie to fantasy baseball.  Let's take a look at how our resident Yankee fan fared in his first draft in this league. 

CENTRAL DIVISION--The Evil Empire (from Illinois by way of New York)

BATTING LINEUP

Like: Strong left side of the infield with Ryan Zimmerman and Troy Tulowitzki.  As mentioned before, I truly believe that Tulo is the best SS in baseball, but there are injury concerns with him.  In the last 3 seasons, he’s only played in 64% of the Rockies’ games and has not played in over 150 games since 2009.  Carlos Gonzalez is on the squad as well as he’ll be showing off his power/speed combo. 

Dislike: Nelson Cruz, even though he has enough power to be a relevant fantasy player, is just too impatient for my taste.  He’s projected to post an on-base% of .326.  As an owner who had Carlos Beltran on his fantasy team last year, seeing him run out of gas late in 2012 was a tremendous letdown.  He did play in 150 games, but at 36 years-old, will he be able to get through a full season in 2013?  Adam Jones’ value comes from his counting stats, but eventually, the poor approach at the plate and the relatively low on-base% will catch up to him and screw his fantasy owners.  And even though Dan Uggla was picked in round five (virtual 12^th round) of the draft, Uggla’s fall from the top of the 2B list should be alarming.

Look Out For: Manny Machado as his year can go either way: he will either flourish this season with the Orioles or his impatience will catch up to him and they will be forced to send him back to the Minors.  

2013 Hitting Projections
Player	Team	Pos	BB/K	AB/K	AB/HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB
Nelson Cruz	Texas	RF	0.35	4.30	21.07	0.326	0.484	0.809	10
Dan Uggla	Atlanta	2B	0.51	3.55	22.01	0.344	0.425	0.769	3
Adam Jones	Baltimore	CF	0.26	5.06	21.69	0.338	0.494	0.831	13
Manny Machado	Baltimore	3B	0.33	4.96	28.24	0.301	0.429	0.730	9

Bench: The Empire had a very interesting bench as the “homer” in him had him pick up a few Yankee players. Backing up Tulo will be Derek Jeter.  Currently, free-swinging, Adam LaRoche is starting at 1B, but most likely taking his place will be Mark Teixeira.  Kevin Youkilis is a good piece to have on your team because he qualifies at 1B/3B and can also be placed on the DH spot.  Victor Martinez was accidentally picked as a catcher, but he will only qualify at DH this season (until he plays 5 games at the backstop), but the team was able to acquire Matt Wieters after the draft in a trade.  Both are good options at catcher.  Even V-Mart makes for a great DH.  

PITCHING

Like: Johnny Cueto and James Shields are both top 25 pitchers.  Jeff Samardzija fell into our 3^rd Tier list because of his BB/9, but when he has his control working, he can be pretty dominant.  Derek Holland can be useful on the right team and this club is right for him as a middle of the rotation starter.  Ryan Vogelsong is the last member of a solid 6-man rotation. 

Dislike: I’m still skeptical about R.A. Dickey.  I’ve explained before about distrusting kucklers, but his projections were good enough to place him ahead of teammate Shields on my top 25 list.  Clearly, this owner did not read my analysis on Justin Masterson.  

2013 Pitching Projections
Player	Team	K/BB	K/9	BB/9	H/9	WHIP	HR/9
Justin Masterson	Cleveland	2.09	6.85	3.27	9.26	1.39	0.73
Ryan Vogelsong	San Francisco	2.28	7.56	3.32	8.52	1.32	0.77
Jeff Samardzija	Cubs	2.33	8.82	3.78	7.98	1.31	1.02
Derek Holland	Texas	2.73	7.66	2.81	8.51	1.26	1.07
Brandon League	Los Angeles	2.13	6.75	3.18	8.34	1.28	0.53
Chris Perez	Cleveland	2.70	8.84	3.27	7.04	1.15	0.82

Bullpen: One of my favorite closers to pick on, Chris Perez is on the ballclub.  Bad enough that he can be a bit loose with his words and actions, but sometimes he goes through these stretches where he loses control and command of his pitches.  Brandon League has so many people rooting against him as they await for Kenley Jansen to take over in Los Angeles.  League’s stuff and projections also make him a questionable choice at closer. 

PREDICTION: Pretty good team despite the fact that it is being run by a new owner.  Starting pitching and offense might be good enough to keep this team in playoff contention, but they also have plenty of hitters that are susceptible to prolonged slumps.  In a fantasy points’ league like this one where you lose points for strikeouts, it can prove to be difference between making the playoffs and watching other teams playing for the championship.  

More fantasy baseball content is available here.

To check out the rest of the Mardi Gras Madness teams, click here. 

MAKING THE PITCH: Chicago Cubs

Will the Cubs win a lot more games in 2013?
(photo courtesy of Sharon P. Mancia)

Felipe M

We take a look at the projected starting rotations and closer situations of every MLB team.  Of course, this will come from a fantasy perspective.  All cited stats are based on 2013 projections.  

Check out the Colorado Rockies pitching staff, here. 

This is a bit personal, however.  As you may or may not know, the Chicago Cubs are my team (along with the Chicago White Sox).  But the bitter apathy and comical season that was the 2012 Cubs had one silver lining: at least the starting pitching was good enough to make them somewhat respectable.  This season, however, trying to figure out this team has been nothing but a major headache.  And I'm not even talking about their closer situation!  Not because they're a lot worse than last year; it's because they have so many potential starters, it's difficult to figure out who's a legit starter, and who will only be holding down the fort until Matt Garza and Scott Baker come back.  The Cubs had an impressive offseason picking up a lot of pitchers.  But from a fantasy standpoint, it's very frustrating to get an accurate gauge on these guys.  

Yesterday, the Cubs outlined their pitching rotation for the start of the season, but their forecast is still not any clearer than it was on Wednesday.  Therefore, I'm only taking a close look at the 3 pitchers who will be there, for certain, on the regular rotation in 2013.

PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

1. Jeff Samardzija
• Good: 8.82 K/9: need we say more?  He also has overpowering stuff that helps limit the base-hits (H/9 of 7.98).  
• Bad: Has a little Kerry Wood in him; he won't give up many hits, but he'll give up plenty of walks (BB/9 3.78).  That brings his WHIP projection to 1.31.  Ouch!
2. Matt Garza
• Good: 8.43 K/9 and an approximate K/BB of 3/1 make him a legit pitcher in any format.
• Bad: Injuries and lack of run support have haunted him, especially since becoming a Cub.  1.13 HR/9 is nothing to fret about, but on those days that the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field, might prove to be disastrous.  Matter of fact, Garza has a history of giving up a lot of homeruns and he's a career flyball pitcher.  However, based on his Groundouts/Flyouts ratio as a Cub, suggest that he is improving on forcing more groundouts than flyballs.
3. Edwin Jackson
• Good: One of the nastiest pitchers out there, Jackson is supposed to sport a K/9 of 7.73.  And after having a reputation of being a wild pitcher, he is projected to have a BB/9 of 2.81.  He won't hurt himself with the longball either (HR/9 of 0.92).
• Bad: 1.29 WHIP is a bit high.  Despite the improvements in the last 3 seasons, Jackson can still come off as a bit unpredictable as a starting pitcher.  

CLOSERs

1. Carlos Marmol
• Good: 12.95 K/9 and 0.68 HR/9 is what makes him a good closer.  He's almost unhittable (H/9 of 6.95. Craig Kimbrel is better at 6.49).
• Bad: Unfortunately, Marmol has a tough time controlling his walks (BB/9 of 6.68).  He seems to have trouble with command of his slider as batters are not biting on it like they were before.  The walks raise his WHIP to an alarming 1.52.  Currently, the Cubs are desperately trying to deal him.
2. Kyuji Fujikawa
• Good: He has enough experience at the role as he's racked up plenty of saves back in Japan.  Baseball America ranks him as the team's #9 prospect.  
• Bad: Tough to gauge if and how a pitcher from another league will be able to streamline success to the Majors.  His projections seem to project him as a low-level, second-tier closer.  The Cubs seem to like him enough for the 9th inning job as he will no doubt move up to that role as soon as they deal Marmol.

FANTASY ADVICE

The other pitchers involved in this claustrophobia-like starting rotation are Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva, and Travis Wood.  I hate Feldman so I'm not even going to bother with him.  I've always liked Wood, but can be very inconsistent at times.  

The intriguing guy of the group is Villanueva.  In 2010, he was exclusively coming out of the bullpen for the Milwaukee Brewers, but last season with the Toronto Blue Jays, he posted impressive numbers as both a reliever and a starter.  He posted impressive strikeout totals and an adequate WHIP.  Projections from various publications show that he's expected to continue with the impressive strikeout rates, but WHIP is ranged between 1.25 and 1.45.  Nevertheless, if he can control the walks and the H/9 numbers, he can become a deep sleeper for at least the first month of the season.

Scott Baker is a flyball pitcher who has a history of giving up a lot of homeruns.  However, he is known to do a great job of controlling his walks and can post respectable strikeout totals (career K/9 of 7.23).  If he can come back without any issues from Tommy John surgery, he can prove to be a useful pitcher in 2013.

The Cubs did a good job acquiring pitchers that can post good strikeout totals, but they all come with baggage: control, injuries, spells of inconsistencies, lack of run support etc.  Nevertheless, I would be comfortable drafting any of these pitchers to fill in the middle of my rotation, but I wouldn't reach to put any of these guys at my top 3 slots.  

Obviously, the closer situation becomes more clear as soon as they find someone willing to deal with Marmol.  I would still take a wait-and-see approach on Fujikawa, though.

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